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falcons007

Noodle Arm and Deep Ball Accuracy disaster

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Ryan on Deep throws from 2012: 

2012 : accuracy %8th in NFL (Godgers was 7th)

NFL Qb rating: 5th in NFL.

2013: With HD and bunch of UDFA WR and turnstile OL: 

Accuracy% Rank: 24 th. That year top rating went to Mike Glenon, Josh McCown, Nick Folles, Tony Romo. 

2014: With just JJ and injured RW and OL decimated

Accuracy% Rank: First in NFL, 

2015: New Scheme under KS

Accuracy: 3rd in the NFL. 

2016: second in  Accuracy % in NFL, only behind Sam Bradford. Godgers was 18th.

First in NFL QB rating. 

2017: 

15th in Accuracy, Russell Wilson was 16th.

Alex smith, Josh McCown  and Brees were top3.

2018: So far 

NFL QB rating: 6th when throwing deep.

Accuracy % 14th in NFL. Godgers is 12th.

Fun fact: In his rookie year, Noodle Arm was 4th in NFL in Deep ball accuracy. 

Ryan had 3 years in Top 3, 5 years in top 10. He finished outside top 10 in three out of eight years.

The deep passing game is a low percentage game, even guys with strongest arms aren’t in top 10 every year consistently. 

 

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You're going to hurt some feelings with this post. 

That being said, Ryan's deep ball is fine EXCEPT for when he throws up those punt style passes. Not sure why he does it or if it is even done on purpose but every now and then when he does throw them they look god awful. 

Ryan's has never had the strongest arm in the league but he has enough to get the job done.

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3 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

You're going to hurt some feelings with this post. 

That being said, Ryan's deep ball is fine EXCEPT for when he throws up those punt style passes. Not sure why he does it or if it is even done on purpose but every now and then when he does throw them they look god awful. 

Ryan's has never had the strongest arm in the league but he has enough to get the job done.

The deep ball is unpredictable, there are years which are dominated by guys who played in NFL for a year or two. RG3 and bunch of other guys in top 5 for a year.

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Keep in mind any pass that travels 20+ yards is considered a "deep ball". 

When people critique Ryan's deep passes they're almost always referring to the passes that travel 40+ yards. 

Thats when those moon/ducks start to happen, especially when targeting Julio who would be a 10 TD+ guy every year if Ryan could just hit him.

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51 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

You're going to hurt some feelings with this post. 

That being said, Ryan's deep ball is fine EXCEPT for when he throws up those punt style passes. Not sure why he does it or if it is even done on purpose but every now and then when he does throw them they look god awful. 

Ryan's has never had the strongest arm in the league but he has enough to get the job done.

A QB needs good protection before he can deliver a great deep ball. If it's rushed, the timing may be off, the receiver may not have broken the coverage yet, etc. In 2016, when Ryan had time to throw, we saw plays like this:

https://youtu.be/jvv3TTN1RB4

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1 hour ago, falcons007 said:

Ryan on Deep throws from 2012: 

2012 : accuracy %8th in NFL (Godgers was 7th)

NFL Qb rating: 5th in NFL.

2013: With HD and bunch of UDFA WR and turnstile OL: 

Accuracy% Rank: 24 th. That year top rating went to Mike Glenon, Josh McCown, Nick Folles, Tony Romo. 

2014: With just JJ and injured RW and OL decimated

Accuracy% Rank: First in NFL, 

2015: New Scheme under KS

Accuracy: 3rd in the NFL. 

2016: second in  Accuracy % in NFL, only behind Sam Bradford. Godgers was 18th.

First in NFL QB rating. 

2017: 

15th in Accuracy, Russell Wilson was 16th.

Alex smith, Josh McCown  and Brees were top3.

2018: So far 

NFL QB rating: 6th when throwing deep.

Accuracy % 14th in NFL. Godgers is 12th.

Fun fact: In his rookie year, Noodle Arm was 4th in NFL in Deep ball accuracy. 

Ryan had 3 years in Top 3, 5 years in top 10. He finished outside top 10 in three out of eight years.

The deep passing game is a low percentage game, even guys with strongest arms aren’t in top 10 every year consistently. 

 

Good post. I also wonder how much of a correlation there is with deep ball completion percentage and the quality of protection. You would have to think that protection plays a big part of how well QB's throw the deep ball.

Last game, we saw something you don't see very often. Matt overthrew Julio on a deep ball. Some of that had to do with Ryan having a great pocket and being able to step into the throw.

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Matt overcomes a lack of exceptional arm strength with technique, timing, and knowledge of the game. I believe relying on superb technique is why he is far better in a clean pocket when throwing deep. Even the most rabid Matt supporter would have to admit Matt has average arm strength on deep passes versus some other Qb wunderkinds.

That said OP hits the nail on the head that somehow Matt still gets the job done in this facet of his game. He'd be mindboggling if he did have Top 10 type arm strength.

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8 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

Matt overcomes a lack of exceptional arm strength with technique, timing, and knowledge of the game. I believe relying on superb technique is why he is far better in a clean pocket when throwing deep. Even the most rabid Matt supporter would have to admit Matt has average arm strength on deep passes versus some other Qb wunderkinds.

That said OP hits the nail on the head that somehow Matt still gets the job done in this facet of his game. He'd be mindboggling if he did have Top 10 type arm strength.

I think arm strength is a pretty overvalued thing in this league. There are plenty of guys who had cannons for arms that never mounted to anything. Jay Cutler anyone? Arm strength can be fools gold. 

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8 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I think arm strength is a pretty overvalued thing in this league. There are plenty of guys who had cannons for arms that never mounted to anything. Jay Cutler anyone? Arm strength can be fools gold. 

I agree. Jeff George had a cannon, but I saw a shell of Bobby Herbert win a game versus Steve Young and Jerry Rice throwing softballs.

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53 minutes ago, Bobby.Digital said:

Keep in mind any pass that travels 20+ yards is considered a "deep ball". 

When people critique Ryan's deep passes they're almost always referring to the passes that travel 40+ yards. 

Thats when those moon/ducks start to happen, especially when targeting Julio who would be a 10 TD+ guy every year if Ryan could just hit him.

Check out 2016 stats on Ryan's 40+ yard passes. 

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1 hour ago, Bobby.Digital said:

Keep in mind any pass that travels 20+ yards is considered a "deep ball". 

When people critique Ryan's deep passes they're almost always referring to the passes that travel 40+ yards. 

Thats when those moon/ducks start to happen, especially when targeting Julio who would be a 10 TD+ guy every year if Ryan could just hit him.

He led the NFL on 40 yard passes in 2014 and 2016. Anything more than 40 yards is 30% ball for most QB.

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16 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

He led the NFL on 40 yard passes in 2014 and 2016. Anything more than 40 yards is 30% ball for most QB.

Interesting. Its weird how he can hit everyone aside from Julio at a good clip. 

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2 hours ago, osiruz said:

Those moon balls kill me, can't he work on his arm strength?

Those are terrible, and I love Matty Ice, but anyone trying to argue against those balls are dead wrong.

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1 hour ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Can't the O-line work on protecting him?

So if the Oline has a down year, mr2 shouldn't improve his QB punts or try hitting JJ in stride.

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Mods, please change thread title to "people who think Matt Ryan has a noodle arm are stupid."

Tx

(not a shot at the OP, more an emphatic agreement)

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1 hour ago, Tandy said:

2011 56.8%

2012 61.7%

2013 69.5%

2014 63.8%

2015 67%

2016 64.3%

2017 59.5%

2018 66.2%

Is this over 20 yards or 'downfield'? I know Matt can hit slants all day 

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4 hours ago, falcons007 said:

Ryan on Deep throws from 2012: 

2012 : accuracy %8th in NFL (Godgers was 7th)

NFL Qb rating: 5th in NFL.

2013: With HD and bunch of UDFA WR and turnstile OL: 

Accuracy% Rank: 24 th. That year top rating went to Mike Glenon, Josh McCown, Nick Folles, Tony Romo. 

2014: With just JJ and injured RW and OL decimated

Accuracy% Rank: First in NFL, 

2015: New Scheme under KS

Accuracy: 3rd in the NFL. 

2016: second in  Accuracy % in NFL, only behind Sam Bradford. Godgers was 18th.

First in NFL QB rating. 

2017: 

15th in Accuracy, Russell Wilson was 16th.

Alex smith, Josh McCown  and Brees were top3.

2018: So far 

NFL QB rating: 6th when throwing deep.

Accuracy % 14th in NFL. Godgers is 12th.

Fun fact: In his rookie year, Noodle Arm was 4th in NFL in Deep ball accuracy. 

Ryan had 3 years in Top 3, 5 years in top 10. He finished outside top 10 in three out of eight years.

The deep passing game is a low percentage game, even guys with strongest arms aren’t in top 10 every year consistently. 

 

How is deep ball defined in these stats? Usually it's 20+ air yards. If so, that ain't a deep ball. 40+ air yards would be deep.

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