FalconsIn2020

Our DC Next Year: allowed just 16 ppg

57 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

^ This. 

Manuel needs to go. I can forgive losses because of injuries. I can’t forgive losses due to lack of gameplanning/scheming. A good DC is able to maneuver pieces in a way that makes them at least serviceable. 

Kind of true...but injuries matter.  For example, when the Ravens won the SB in 2011 they allowed 16 points per game.  Next season, same personnel with one notable exception: Ray Lewis torn triceps, out for the year.  The 2012 Ravens allowed 6 more points per game due to one injury.   

Oddly enough, we are allowing just over 6 more points per game this year.

Edited by Falconsin2012

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4 hours ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Eh. Manual isn't aggressive enough. People keep pointing to points allowed per game. But the team still finished 13th in sacks, 17th in forced fumbles, and 29th in interceptions in 2017. Pretty weak

And that’s part of why they were near dead last in getting off the field.

D was not championship caliber in 2017. At best, we’ve had complimentary and close to that caliber during Matt’s tenure maybe 2 or 3 times. 2016 D was better during the hot steak than 2017 D’s body of work. Too bad it fizzled when we needed them vs Pats in 2nd half. They had barely hung on in first half, relying on turnovers and sacks. Cause we weren’t beating them straight up. Long drives led to our downfall. Same thing in 2017, but less turnovers and poor drive efficiency; simply was okay enough at bend but don’t break. Not outright dominant. We’ve always lived and died with O first, D compliment since post 2010 season when that D got exposed vs Pack. 

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The measure of a great coordinator is what he does when everything isn't perfect.

Players will get hurt again at some point and I don't think he knows how to adjust or compensate.

It's also not just points against. We are 24th in the league in TOP because our defense can't get off the field. We are 31st... THIRTY FIRST in 3rd down percentage allowed; Teams convert 3rd downs almost 50% of the time.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

We don't give up a ton of points because teams concentrate on staying on the field, and eating a ton of clock to keep our offense off the field.

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34 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Kind of true...but injuries matter.  For example, when the Ravens won the SB in 2011 they allowed 16 points per game.  Next season, same personnel with one notable exception: Ray Lewis torn triceps, out for the year.  The 2012 Ravens allowed 6 more points per game due to one injury.   

Oddly enough, we are allowing just over 6 more points per game this year.

This is somewhat inaccurate. Ravens won the 2013 Super Bowl. They averaged 21.5 PPG that season. They lost Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ladarius Webb that season, all of which hurt them. It was because they had good depth and a decent defensive coordinator that they were able to stay afloat. Not to mention the best four game stretch any QB has ever had. Suggs and Lewis got healthy at the right time. 

Edited by Sidecar Falcon

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8 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

This is somewhat inaccurate. Ravens won the 2013 Super Bowl. They averaged 21.5 PPG that season. They lost Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ladarius Webb that season, all of which hurt them. It was because they had good depth and a decent defensive coordinator that they were able to stay afloat. Not to mention the best four game stretch any QB has ever had. Suggs and Lewis got healthy at the right time. 

Now I have to fact check. I’m pretty sure Ray Lewis tire his triceps the week before the Super Bowl

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13 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

This is somewhat inaccurate. Ravens won the 2013 Super Bowl. They averaged 21.5 PPG that season. They lost Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ladarius Webb that season, all of which hurt them. It was because they had good depth and a decent defensive coordinator that they were able to stay afloat. Not to mention the best four game stretch any QB has ever had. Suggs and Lewis got healthy at the right time. 

You are right. Got my years wrong...in 2012 Lewis was injured and here was the impact.

 

“Lewis, who practiced without apparent limitations Wednesday, has been out since injuring his triceps during the sixth game of the season.

Even if he returns, it is uncertain how much of a contributionhe will be able to make. And Baltimore’s uncharacteristic problems extend beyond simply missing one player, even a 13-time Pro Bowler like Lewis. The defense, which ranked third in the N.F.L. last season, allowing288.9 yards per game, is 26th this season (374.3 yards). The Ravens are vulnerable to the run (132.2 yards, 26th) and the pass (242.1 yards, 22nd).”

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Just now, Falconsin2012 said:

Now I have to fact check. I’m pretty sure Ray Lewis tire his triceps the week before the Super Bowl

I believe he tore his tricep in October and per Ray Lewis (only source, question the veracity of this statement ) he re-tore it the night before the Super Bowl. Apparently he used deer antler spray to heal quicker.

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1 hour ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Dude, thanks for the catch.  I look farking stupid with Marquis in the title post..,

Nah — I was more giggling at the fact that 10 people hadn’t corrected you already. It’s an honest mistake. 

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7 hours ago, Falconsin2012 said:

And his name is Marquand Manuel.  I believe Manuel struggled with the middle of his defense going on IR.  Most young DC’s would have found 2018 taxing.  I guarantee he learned some tough yet valuable lessons.  Do I wish he brought more pressure: of course.  Is he perfect: no.  But here is my case for him.  Over the last 15 games where he has had a healthy Deion Jones to lead his defense, this is what his defense has surrendered, in order:

1. 20 points

2. 20 points

3. 7 points

4.  31 points

5.  20 points

6.  14 points

7.  17 points

8.  21 points

9.  23 points

10 10 points

11.  13 points (playoffs vs Rams)

12.  15 points (playoffs vs Eagles)

13.  18 points

14.  14 points

15.  10 points

For those not mathematically inclined, that’s just 16.8 ppg.  And we played Saints 3 times , SB champion twice, Rams, Seattle etc.  With our offense, this kind of defense is enough to win a Super Bowl.  I say bring him back.  Possibly Sark as well and see if continuity,  a good draft along with healthy bodies brings us a special 2019.

 

Can't argue with this and I agree BUT if we stay healthy like we had been before this latest injury bug and don't make the playoffs, I say can 'em.

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I hope the agent for Deion Jones does not get this stat as he might demand $30 million/year for the guy?

Actually, though, I do notice that this appears to leave out the Green Bay game this year where Deion Jones was active and we had 34 points scored against us.  In fact, I remember him dropping an easy interception that would have "ruined" the no-interception streak of prize boy Rodgers.

The Cardinals are also the worst offense in the league which helps any DC's stats plus the Panthers offense was without Newton (but still w/McCaffrey) and not 100%.  The Bucs will actually be the best offense (assuming they are not tanking) we will face in awhile - they are actually 3rd right now in total yards but give a lot of it away in TO's.

Still, I actually am more willing to keep Manuel than Sark because I know Quinn has more ability to take over a defense in midseason given prior history.  And, injuries really hit him as the loss of Neal, Jones and Ricardo combined definitely took away any on-field leadership he had as opposed to the offense which has maintained great leaders like Ryan, Mack, Julio, etc. to drive it.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2018&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false

Edited by jlrfalcon
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But they can all go. It's funny u can make up stats to support both coordinators, but we didn't arrive at these firing reports for nothing.

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1 hour ago, jlrfalcon said:

I hope the agent for Deion Jones does not get this stat as he might demand $30 million/year for the guy?

Actually, though, I do notice that this appears to leave out the Green Bay game this year where Deion Jones was active and we had 34 points scored against is.

PrimeTime brought this up and this was my reasoning:

“I’m using a trend since the Patriots game last year.  That’s when our defense took shape.  I included the Eagles this year. Did not include Jones first 2 weeks back as he was getting his legs back again.  

But if you want to include the 26 points vs Ravens and 34 vs Packers, it brings his ppg average up to a whooping 18.2 ppg.  Still good enough.

And if you want to include all 2017 and all 5 games this year, the average is 18.3”

Edited by Falconsin2012

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On 12/27/2018 at 6:54 PM, TheUsualStuff said:

The measure of a great coordinator is what he does when everything isn't perfect.

Players will get hurt again at some point and I don't think he knows how to adjust or compensate.

It's also not just points against. We are 24th in the league in TOP because our defense can't get off the field. We are 31st... THIRTY FIRST in 3rd down percentage allowed; Teams convert 3rd downs almost 50% of the time.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

We don't give up a ton of points because teams concentrate on staying on the field, and eating a ton of clock to keep our offense off the field.

I get what you are saying, but we run 61 offensive snaps per game...same as we did in 2016.  We produced 34.1 ppg with 61 snaps in 2016...did we blame the defense for not getting the offense more opportunities that year?

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On 12/27/2018 at 2:37 PM, JD dirtybird21 said:

Eh. Manual isn't aggressive enough. People keep pointing to points allowed per game. But the team still finished 13th in sacks, 17th in forced fumbles, and 29th in interceptions in 2017. Pretty weak

Well you mention 2017, and now we're tied 8th for this year in interceptions. 

I'm only bringing that up because as much as I like stats they can be overrated, and easily skewed to paint pictures everyone likes. My personal belief is both Sark and Manuel stay, and I hope they do. This instant gratification culture we live in now is gone to bizzaro world. There are things Sark and Manuel need to improve on, but having all these injuries has to mean something in their defense. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Zone#7 said:

Well you mention 2017, and now we're tied 8th for this year in interceptions. 

I'm only bringing that up because as much as I like stats they can be overrated, and easily skewed to paint pictures everyone likes. My personal belief is both Sark and Manuel stay, and I hope they do. This instant gratification culture we live in now is gone to bizzaro world. There are things Sark and Manuel need to improve on, but having all these injuries has to mean something in their defense. 

 

Of the two, I’d prefer Sark be replaced.  But continuity between coaches & players is so incredibly important.  As such I am good with both trying again

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1 hour ago, Falconsin2012 said:

I get what you are saying, but we run 61 offensive snaps per game...same as we did in 2016.  We produced 34.1 ppg with 61 snaps in 2016...did we blame the defense for not getting the offense more opportunities that year?

  Fair statement, but we might have blamed the defense for more in 2016 if we didn't have one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history that season. Not just a good offense measured that season.. one of the best in the entire history of the league.

  That offense covered up a lot of defensive flaws like our inability to get off the field on opponents 3rd downs. This years offense hasn't been able to mask that flaw, buy that doesn't excuse the defense for what is still obviously... a major, major flaw.

  At this point though I wonder though if the blame is on MM.. because we have been in the bottom half of the league in allowing opponents 3rd down conversions in 2016 (25th), 2017 (18th), and in 2018 (31st). 

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15 minutes ago, TheUsualStuff said:

 

 

  Fair statement, but we might have blamed the defense for more in 2016 if we didn't have one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history that season. Not just a good offense measured that season.. one of the best in the entire history of the league.

  That offense covered up a lot of defensive flaws like our inability to get off the field on opponents 3rd downs. This years offense hasn't been able to mask that flaw, buy that doesn't excuse the defense for what is still obviously... a major, major flaw.

  At this point though I wonder though if the blame is on MM.. because we have been in the bottom half of the league in allowing opponents 3rd down conversions in 2016 (25th), 2017 (18th), and in 2018 (31st). 

3rd down conversions are a concern. I agree.  But our TOP allowed was still 14th last year.  Take that, along with 19 ppg and just 321 ypg, I don’t see we have a pressing need to fire MM

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