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Does Tanking Work?


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So you either think we have ruined our season or salvaged the season based on the last 2 games. TANK! some say. WIN! others say. But what does the data say? Does tanking work?

I decided to look back at the drafts since 2008 and do some research on how the top 1-8 picks compare to the 9-16 picks based on the number of pro bowls players in each range. Not the best way, but it's something. I tried to include notable names on each. Here we go:

2008:
1-8: 2 pro bowlers (Ryan, J. Long); 6 not (S. Ellis, V. Gholston, D. Harvey) 
9-16: 5 pro bowlers; 3 not (K. Rivers, C. Williams)

2009:
1-8: 1 pro bowler (Stafford); 6 not (M. Sanchez, A. Curry, our good buddy Tyson Jackson)
9-16: 4 pro bowlers; 4 not (Crabtree was in this range though and he's been a solid WR)

2010:
1-8: 6 pro bowlers (Suh, McCoy, Berry, etc); 2 not (R. Mcclain, S. Bradford)
9-16: 4 bro bowlers (C. Spiller, R. Mathews, E. Thomas, JPP); 4 not (T. Alualu, A. Davis, B. Graham, D. Morgan)

2011:
1-8: 7 pro bowlers (A. Smith was one and he had issues, but was good); 1 not (J. Locker)
9-16: 5 bro bowlers; 3 not (Nick Fairley)

2012:
1-8: 3 pro bowlers (Luck, RGIII, and M. Kalil); 5 not (T. Richardson, M. Claiborne, J. Blackmon, M. Barron, R. Tannehill)
9-16: 4 pro bowlers; 4 not (Bruce Irvin, M. Brockers)

2013:
1-8: 3 pro bowlers (E. Fisher, L. Johnson, E. Ansah); 5 not (T. Austin)
9-16: 1 pro bowler (S. Richardson); 7 not (D. Fluker, S. Lotulelei)

2014:
1-8: 3 pro bowlers (Clowney, Mack, M. Evans); 5 not (S. Watkins, Bortles, J. Matthews)
9-16: all 8 pro bowlers (A. Donald, T. Lewan, OBJ to name a few)

2015:
1-8: 5 pro bowlers (Jameis and Vic); 3 not (Mariota, Fowler, Kevin White)
9-16: 2 pro bowlers (Gurley and Gordon); 6 not (Trae Waynes)

2016:
1-8: 5 pro bowlers (Goff, Wentz, Bosa, Elliot, Ramsey); 3 not (Conklin and R. Stanley)
9-16: None (Rankins, Apple, Tunsil, L. Floyd a few)

2017:
1-8: 2 pro bowlers (Garrett, Adams); 6 not (Trubisky, C. Davis, McCaffrey, Fournette, M. Williams)
9-16: 2 pro bowlers (Mahomes, Lattimore); 6 not (D. Watson will certainly make it one day if he stays healthy)

Hard to judge 2016 and 2017 too much. But there have been mixed results. Some players that you think will be studs probably won't turn out. And some players that fall a little will turn out to be studs. 

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2 minutes ago, tl;dr said:

Already prepped for the celebration of your birth Jesus. Now I've got some time 

I'm chilling in a corner booth at a rooftop rooftop bar in Manhattan drinking expensive cocktails and jammin with the DJ.

Merry Memas to everyone!

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You can’t cherry pick players and cite where they were drafted. The higher the draft slot, the bigger the player pool to select from. You can choose whoever you want #1 overall. You can pick the QB projected to go first or the Aaron Donald projected to go in the teens, but that choice is yours and no team can decide that for you. A higher pick = better chance of being right. Always. 

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