mashburn*Fibonacci

How many draft spots did this pointless win affect us?

104 posts in this topic

12 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

If you're wanting to know where it stands as of that day you should only count the games played, not future games like Tankathon as if those records won't change.

Yeah, I saw your nonsense the other day in that thread. You were trying to win an argument, and so you've thrown your lot in that day is night. That's your call but the sincere reply to your comment is...

GOOD LORD, NO!!!

These calculations have been the same way for ages. ESPN's trying to act like they have a new and better way so that they can hide the fact that their draft experts are comically inept. 

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

why would you include records of future opponents when they will change?

Hey, if we DON'T play Carolina and Tampa Bay, I think I speak for everyone when I say that we will all tip our caps.

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10 hours ago, rugger8 said:

It is, but that's an argument for needing a higher pick. It increases the likelihood of success by either being able to pick a player less likely to fair or trade back and increase odds of hitting by getting more picks.

That’s really all it is. What are the chances of us having another 2016 type of draft with nothing but mid round picks? Picking high as possible simply increases the chance of more impact players being on the team. How on earth anyone has an issue with that is beyond me. 

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My thing is this:Yes, it is very hard to root for the Falcons to lose.  I feel like though, that this season was an anomaly because of the injuries(Yes, I think they were the MAIN reason for the Falcons sucking so hard) and that we normally would have no business drafting as high as we might have the opportunity to.  I don't think we will be drafting high for a number of years too.  The season is lost.  I'm hoping for as high a pick as possible.  I want to get an animal like Quinnen or Oliver.  I don't think those guys are a crapshoot.  I think they're the real deal.  Of course I want the Falcons to win but it's weird because I feel like they won't get an opportunity to draft this high for a while and it would be very nice to possibly have a top 4-5 pick after this ****** season.

Edited by Mescalito
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10 hours ago, Mescalito said:

My thing is this:Yes, it is very hard to root for the Falcons to lose.  I feel like though, that this season was an anomaly because of the injuries(Yes, I think they were the MAIN reason for the Falcons sucking so hard) and that we normally would have no business drafting as high as we might have the opportunity to.  I don't think we will be drafting high for a number of years too.  The season is lost.  I'm hoping for as high a pick as possible.  I want to get an animal like Quinnen or Oliver.  I don't think those guys are a crapshoot.  I think they're the real deal.  Of course I want the Falcons to win but it's weird because I feel like they won't get an opportunity to draft this high for a while and it would be very nice to possibly have a top 4-5 pick after this ****** season.

You tankers need to quit dreaming of Quinnen and Oliver. They will be gone in the first four picks. They are both lightweight 3T DTs. We need an OT, OG, edge rusher and run stopping 1T. I still think we will win at least one more game and draft somewhere around 8th or 9th. There will be good players available then. Probably at least half of these guys:

  • OT – Greg Little 6’6 - 325
  • OT – Jonah Williams – 6’5 - 301
  • DE – Clelin Ferrell – 6’5 - 250
  • DE – Jachai Polite 6’2 - 260
  • DT – Rashan Gary 6’5 - 280
  • DT – Jeffrey Simmons 6’4 - 300
  • LB – Devin White 6’1 - 255
  • CB – Byron Murphy 5’11 - 182
  • CB – DeAndre Baker 5-10 - 185

 

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8 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Through 14 games our opponents were 96-94-3 (.505). DET's opponents were 97-96-2 (.503). Sorry. Tank on.

Even after tonight we will be at 97-95-3 so we’ll still have a stronger schedule. 

Also, not to stoke the flame, but nobody is talking about how we’d be in the 2 spot had we lost yesterday (according to Tankathons SOS). 

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10 hours ago, mashburn*Fibonacci said:

Click the link at the start of the post

That link, and every other link, shows 5 teams with worse records than us, not 6.

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17 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

If you're wanting to know where it stands as of that day you should only count the games played, not future games like Tankathon as if those records won't change.

wut?

This is pretty brutal analysis

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We would've been number 2 if we'd lost.  Because the Cards would've picked up the win and we'd have the tie break over everyone.

But losing to the Panthers and Bucs will be tough, so it was probably just too much to ask.

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On 12/18/2018 at 7:56 AM, Clark said:

That link, and every other link, shows 5 teams with worse records than us, not 6.

My bad, I counted the packers.  But then we are tired with 5 other teams at the same record. 

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On ‎12‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 1:37 PM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Through 14 games our opponents were 96-94-3 (.505). DET's opponents were 97-96-2 (.503). Sorry. Tank on.

Curious on how you calculated your numbers because it off by a game on both ends. I know you did it prior to the Saints-Panthers game but I went ahead and added it and it's still off for both Det and Atl.

14 Games vs. 13 opponents = 182 total games played thru week 15

your total for Det 97+96+2 = 195 games

yours total for Atl (prior to NO-Car) 96+94+3 = 193 games (195 games after CAR-NO)

 

Edited by Cole World

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On ‎12‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 1:24 PM, Lornoth said:

That's incorrect. Detroit opponents have cumulatively won 1 single game more than ours, so we get the higher pick as of today. 

 

On ‎12‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 1:37 PM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Through 14 games our opponents were 96-94-3 (.505). DET's opponents were 97-96-2 (.503). Sorry. Tank on.

FFS70, Lornoth is actually correct so is the Tankathon website.

You only play 13 opponents in a season with 3 of them you play twice....So thru week 15 it was a total of 182 games played (14 games x 13 opponents).

Our record after you posted your comment is 86-93-3 (182 games) and Detroit record is 87-93-2 (games).

Not sure where you got your numbers, but your #'s are way off as far as total games played.

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3 minutes ago, Cole World said:

 

FFS70, Lornoth is actually correct so is the Tankathon website.

You only play 13 opponents in a season with 3 of them you play twice....So thru week 15 it was a total of 182 games played (14 games x 13 opponents).

Our record after you posted your comment is 86-93-3 (182 games) and Detroit record is 87-93-2 (games).

Not sure where you got your numbers, but your #'s are way off as far as total games played.

Do you not count division rivals twice? They are technically part of your schedule twice, so not sure why they'd be excluded once.

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1 minute ago, Lornoth said:

Do you not count division rivals twice? They are technically part of your schedule twice, so not sure why they'd be excluded once.

I do count them twice. I was just showing him where and how I got my numbers.

 

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1 minute ago, Lornoth said:

Do you not count division rivals twice? They are technically part of your schedule twice, so not sure why they'd be excluded once.

That's a good question. 

Although I think he's still correct that excluding teams you havent played yet isnt the way to calculate SOS. If that were the case, you'd have to calculate SOS on a cascading weekly basis using each team's W/L record at the time you played them. But clearly we don't do that. 

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3 minutes ago, Cole World said:

I do count them twice. I was just showing him where and how I got my numbers.

 

Doesn't this equation

7 minutes ago, Cole World said:

 

So thru week 15 it was a total of 182 games played (14 games x 13 opponents).

suggest you're excluding one divisional game that we've played already (Thus only counting their win/loss once)? Your number differs from his because he's adding an extra 14 games played from the Saints for us and the Bears for the Lions, whereas you're excluding one instance of those teams' games. 

4 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

That's a good question. 

Although I think he's still correct that excluding teams you havent played yet isnt the way to calculate SOS. If that were the case, you'd have to calculate SOS on a cascading weekly basis using each team's W/L record at the time you played them. But clearly we don't do that. 

And yeah, you can count games you haven't played yet, but SoS changes quite a bit week-to-week anyway, as every team you've already played changes their record and thus readjusts your SoS, so projecting it for the future is a bit difficult to do.

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5 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Do you not count division rivals twice? They are technically part of your schedule twice, so not sure why they'd be excluded once.

If you go back and look at the record FFS70 said it doesn't add up.

I think what he did was take 14 games times 14 opponents and came up with his numbers.

I'm pretty sure he counted the Saints twice and whoever else the Lions already played twice two times.

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Just now, Lornoth said:

Doesn't this equation

suggest you're excluding one divisional game that we've played already (Thus only counting their win/loss once)? Your number differs from his because he's adding an extra 14 games played from the Saints for us and the Bears for the Lions, whereas you're excluding one instance of those teams' games. 

And yeah, you can count games you haven't played yet, but SoS changes quite a bit week-to-week anyway, as every team you've already played changes their record and thus readjusts your SoS, so projecting it for the future is a bit difficult to do.

Sure, things can always change. I mean, the Falcons could win out, lose out and split. Their opponents could do the same. All of that is going to change things. 

But right now, if the draft were tomorrow, we'd pick 6th. I dont know why some in this thread seem to want to argue with that reality. 

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2 minutes ago, Cole World said:

If you go back and look at the record FFS70 said it doesn't add up.

I think what he did was take 14 games times 14 opponents and came up with his numbers.

I'm pretty sure he counted the Saints twice and whoever else the Lions already played twice two times.

That's my question, do you not count them twice? I assumed you did.

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1 minute ago, Lornoth said:

Doesn't this equation

suggest you're excluding one divisional game that we've played already (Thus only counting their win/loss once)? Your number differs from his because he's adding an extra 14 games played from the Saints for us and the Bears for the Lions, whereas you're excluding one instance of those teams' games. 

And yeah, you can count games you haven't played yet, but SoS changes quite a bit week-to-week anyway, as every team you've already played changes their record and thus readjusts your SoS, so projecting it for the future is a bit difficult to do.

No I didn't. Look at my comment above.

I counted Saints record W's and L's once and the same for the Bears

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On 12/17/2018 at 8:58 AM, FalconinPA said:

Do you really think the draft spot matters with this team? Just win baby! and watch TD and company show you that draft spot doesn't matter they pick a lukewarm pick. Can't believe our record is the same as the Bucs. 

It's not just a draft spot in one round. Its better picks in each round and better value in each round if we want to trade down to get more picks.

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