TRUju2111

Ignoring the trenches in the draft was our downfall

133 posts in this topic

6 minutes ago, vel said:

Basically. The offense was last in the league in drives with 157. They were:

#2 in yards
#7 in points
#2 in plays
#1 in time of possession
#2 in Drive Success Rate

They ate the clock because they sustained drives. It protected the defense from being exposed and basically made the onus on the defense to just make one or two big key plays and we'd win. That's basically what happened and why so many games were on possession games. The 2017 Falcons put pressure on you not with a pass rush but with fewer drives. They were basically playing 10 drives per game when the league average was 11 1/4. Whoever made the key mistakes would lose. 

limiting their drives by sustaining our own offensive drives is what we want right?  classic "ball control" offense?  it was refreshing to see us do that to teams vs. other teams just pounding away and sustaining drives...kinda like the georgia tech offense...you did dare have a 3 and out becasue they were about to have a 9 minute drive of their own.  but as we have seen, that type of ball doesn't really work.  

but yes, thanks for the breakdown...it wasnt so much that the d was good, as they were less exposed (plays per game) and therefore fresher..and all they had to do was a few key plays.  well i dont see what more you can ask...to me, thats kinda a recipe for success...

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7 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

You're doing yeoman's work out here man.

You and I have both been beating this drum for two full seasons on both offense and defense. 

People still don't get it. People still don't seem to grasp the remarkable correlation between production and attempts. It's crazy. 

Two full seasons. The first time I brought it up, people were livid and I get it. But they just weren't good and the three games vs BUF, MIA, and CAR stuck with me and are what made me dig deeper. They were entirely too talented to have let those teams do what they did. People just saw the low point total, but when you're talented and facing untalented units, you should hold them to below average days. What the Cowboys did to the Saints on TNF is what I'm talking about. Not letting Buffalo and Miami score 17 when they averaged 17. They just showed up and had a normal day. That told me we had at best an average defense.

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2 hours ago, vel said:

I'm not saying he's a bad player or going to be a scrub. I'm just saying it's not like what's he done year one with JAX is worth ringing the bell about ignoring the trenches this past offseason. 

 

This! It's like they knew shlt would hit the fan this year. They just knew we'd lose both our OGs and our RT would fall off a cliff. Even TATF renowned cynic FFS70 admits taking Ridley wasn't crazy. That's how you know it's hard to argue against last offseason. 

OP said we ignored the trenches with the first couple picks. We went WR and CB so he has a point, although I think relying on rooks to save us in their first year is irresponsible. And you're right Ridley was in my BPA group when we were on the clock so I was totally cool with that move. He better stop dropping balls though. I got my name on him. State line.

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2 hours ago, VTCrunkler said:

he had to take baker at that point with the run on tackles and needing to protect ryan.  so i agreed with his move in principle there.

 

But overall you are right he doesnt have a good track record.  i think Konz is the worst of the misses.  

Dude traded two seconds and a fourth to move up for Sackmaker, while leaving Duane Brown on the board. Then re-signed him to a cap crippling second contract after an overall T-Rex performance. Criminal.

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Dude traded two firsts and a fourth to move up for Sackmaker, while leaving Duane Brown on the board. Then re-signed him to a cap crippling second contract after an overall T-Rex performance. Criminal.

trust me, i wouldve wanted Duane Brown...but even i didnt know how good a pro he would turn out to be.  

at any time, two firsts is too much.  the second contract was the criminal part.  

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3 minutes ago, vel said:

Two full seasons. The first time I brought it up, people were livid and I get it. But they just weren't good and the three games vs BUF, MIA, and CAR stuck with me and are what made me dig deeper. They were entirely too talented to have let those teams do what they did. People just saw the low point total, but when you're talented and facing untalented units, you should hold them to below average days. What the Cowboys did to the Saints on TNF is what I'm talking about. Not letting Buffalo and Miami score 17 when they averaged 17. They just showed up and had a normal day. That told me we had at best an average defense.

There was also a bit of "red zone" over-performance which people interpret to mean something substantive when its almost always a highly variant measure of performance. 

The defense DID play much better on a snap-to-snap basis over the last third of the season. They were somewhere around ~10th in the league in defensive DVOA over the last 8 or so weeks. But even with all of that, the defense was still below average or worse in pretty much every rate statistic and in both weighted and non-weighted total defensive DVOA for the season. 

It wasnt a good defense. And while occasionally it flashed potential to be a good defense, it didnt really get there. Even in the Rams game..... 

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Just now, VTCrunkler said:

trust me, i wouldve wanted Duane Brown...but even i didnt know how good a pro he would turn out to be.  

at any time, two firsts is too much.  the second contract was the criminal part.  

Sorry I meant two seconds and a fourth. Edited.

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1 minute ago, VTCrunkler said:

limiting their drives by sustaining our own offensive drives is what we want right?  classic "ball control" offense?  it was refreshing to see us do that to teams vs. other teams just pounding away and sustaining drives...kinda like the georgia tech offense...you did dare have a 3 and out becasue they were about to have a 9 minute drive of their own.  but as we have seen, that type of ball doesn't really work.  

but yes, thanks for the breakdown...it wasnt so much that the d was good, as they were less exposed (plays per game) and therefore fresher..and all they had to do was a few key plays.  well i dont see what more you can ask...to me, thats kinda a recipe for success...

But I don't call that a good defense. Just holding on all game and hoping they can make a key play here or there. That's definitely not a top ten defense. Because when it came to stop a team from doing something you knew was coming (i.e. stopping the run), they couldn't. Again, I go back to the Bills, Dolphins, and Panthers games. Those teams ran the ball right down their throats. There was no receiving threat. Miami had Landry, who averaged less than 10 yards a catch. The Bills had Charles Clay. 

Compare that to how the Cowboys just played the Saints on TNF. They took the game to the Saints and shut them down. We RARELY see that. They did that in the second Panthers game and the Rams game. Those were top ten defensive performances that we didn't get during the year. 

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4 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Dude traded two firsts and a fourth to move up for Sackmaker, while leaving Duane Brown on the board. Then re-signed him to a cap crippling second contract after an overall T-Rex performance. Criminal.

1) Removed post-edit

2) Duane Brown was largely viewed as a massive reach at the time and was not a consensus better prospect than Baker. 

Stop the revisionist bullcrap. 

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6 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

OP said we ignored the trenches with the first couple picks. We went WR and CB so he has a point, although I think relying on rooks to save us in their first year is irresponsible. And you're right Ridley was in my BPA group when we were on the clock so I was totally cool with that move. He better stop dropping balls though. I got my name on him. State line.

The fact that even you can admit that. All I'm saying is it's easy to just say we ignored the trenches but when you don't point out what the alternative is, I lose respect quick. You at least will rattle off guys we could have 

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1 minute ago, vel said:

The fact that even you can admit that. All I'm saying is it's easy to just say we ignored the trenches but when you don't point out what the alternative is, I lose respect quick. You at least will rattle off guys we could have 

If we continue the BPA approach we took with Ridley and drop the needs based hole filling approach we will eventually be stacked. Trust me. BPA in every round at any position. QB included. Fill holes with vets who know how to play NFL football on day one.

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4 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

There was also a bit of "red zone" over-performance which people interpret to mean something substantive when its almost always a highly variant measure of performance. 

The defense DID play much better on a snap-to-snap basis over the last third of the season. They were somewhere around ~10th in the league in defensive DVOA over the last 8 or so weeks. But even with all of that, the defense was still below average or worse in pretty much every rate statistic and in both weighted and non-weighted total defensive DVOA for the season. 

It wasnt a good defense. And while occasionally it flashed potential to be a good defense, it didnt really get there. Even in the Rams game..... 

Exactly. They had moments, but when they did, it wasn't anything that should have been rare. That's what made me severely question Manuel. When the Panthers traded KB and Olsen was out, I knew "Shut down Funch and play 8-9 in the box". There was literally NOBODY else to guard. Cam had 13 completions, 10 when to Funch or McCaffrey. The rest was just running the ball. The same exact thing that happened vs BUF and MIA. 

But then the second time they played Carolina, they did that. They shut down the run and forced the game into Cam's hands with a subpar WR corps. They allowed 10 points. That's what I expected, a below average output from a subpar offense. Did the same to the Rams. 

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3 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

If we continue the BPA approach we took with Ridley and drop the needs based hole filling approach we will eventually be stacked. Trust me. BPA in every round at any position. QB included. Fill holes with vets who know how to play NFL football on day one.

As much as I like this strategy, I think the roster is "finally" set up for that. If they play the offseason correctly, we both know we should have around $50MM in cap space, $35MM after Grady and Julio. I'd go hard at Rodger Saffold or Billy Turner for LG and Zadarius Smith or Shaquill Barrett on the edge. See if Kwon wants to play in Atlanta with Debo for a year. Then I'm going BPA all weekend come draft time. 

I don't think 2015 and 2016 rosters allowed that, but I'm not complaining about those drafts. 2017 maybe, had we not traded up for Takk. But 2018 was the one and now people are complaining smh

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23 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Sorry I meant two seconds and a fourth. Edited.

All good. I would think at the time td felt like he needed to make that move. In hindsight it was excessive.  But what else could he have done at the time?

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28 minutes ago, vel said:

But I don't call that a good defense. Just holding on all game and hoping they can make a key play here or there. That's definitely not a top ten defense. Because when it came to stop a team from doing something you knew was coming (i.e. stopping the run), they couldn't. Again, I go back to the Bills, Dolphins, and Panthers games. Those teams ran the ball right down their throats. There was no receiving threat. Miami had Landry, who averaged less than 10 yards a catch. The Bills had Charles Clay. 

Compare that to how the Cowboys just played the Saints on TNF. They took the game to the Saints and shut them down. We RARELY see that. They did that in the second Panthers game and the Rams game. Those were top ten defensive performances that we didn't get during the year. 

True. I guess what I was saying is that was a good formula for success given how the team was built. It masked our defensive flaws like you said re: bills etc. 

i would love to see us with a dominant d or a d that played like the cowboys the other day. 

The Rams game was good but they did have two big special teams blunders. 

Inwould expect the d to be better than it is at this point. 

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7 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

True. I guess what I was saying is that was a good formula for success given how the team was built. It masked our defensive flaws like you said re: bills etc. 

i would love to see us with a dominant d or a d that played like the cowboys the other day. 

The Rams game was good but they did have two big special teams blunders. 

Inwould expect the d to be better than it is at this point. 

Yes, given how they were built, they needed to be hidden and they did a good job of that in 2016 and 2017. What made me mad is they had the talent last year to not be hidden, but be an asset. We saw that at the end of 2017. But then the injuries happened this year and Manuel went back passive. 

Fire MM, add studs to the DL, and get back healthy and they're good. Losing Debo, Rico, and Neal hurt, but it let you find Kazee and Oluokon. 

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7 minutes ago, vel said:

Yes, given how they were built, they needed to be hidden and they did a good job of that in 2016 and 2017. What made me mad is they had the talent last year to not be hidden, but be an asset. We saw that at the end of 2017. But then the injuries happened this year and Manuel went back passive. 

Fire MM, add studs to the DL, and get back healthy and they're good. Losing Debo, Rico, and Neal hurt, but it let you find Kazee and Oluokon. 

It's like we've been playing prevent d all season. We did find a playmaker in Kazee and Foye has improved over time (unlike some linebackers) 

Agreed on the plan. New DC. Grab a DT from clemson or Bama. Alford gone?  Vic?

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1 hour ago, vel said:

Two full seasons. The first time I brought it up, people were livid and I get it. But they just weren't good and the three games vs BUF, MIA, and CAR stuck with me and are what made me dig deeper. They were entirely too talented to have let those teams do what they did. People just saw the low point total, but when you're talented and facing untalented units, you should hold them to below average days. What the Cowboys did to the Saints on TNF is what I'm talking about. Not letting Buffalo and Miami score 17 when they averaged 17. They just showed up and had a normal day. That told me we had at best an average defense.

Bingo. Tyrod Taylor and Jay Cutler had their better performances against the Falcons last year. 2017 defense wasn't as good as we thought either and that was with Poe, Clayborn, Upshaw, and the entire defense healthy. Our talent made us top 10 in scoring but we were still bottom half in the league in yards per play and turnover margin. Our defensive philosophy has always sucked under Quinn. 

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17 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

It's like we've been playing prevent d all season. We did find a playmaker in Kazee and Foye has improved over time (unlike some linebackers) 

Agreed on the plan. New DC. Grab a DT from clemson or Bama. Alford gone?  Vic?

Alford is long gone. I think Vic can be brought back for cheap if he wants. He's shown some mild improvement as of late. I'm of the belief that Vic as your 7th-8th best front seven guy is worth keeping around. He'd basically upgrade Brooks Reed. 

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3 hours ago, jidady said:

Konz was the same way. Some people had given him first round grades. Several different 'draft experts" referred to him as the steal of the draft for us. It turned out he had slid on many draft boards for good reason. He wasn't strong enough for the NFL.

The Falcons have drafted at least one offensive lineman six straight years. We haven't ignored the line. We just couldn't keep the decent ones healthy.

Konz was plenty strong enough....when he has good technique.....the problem is that was not consistent.

 

He was ok as a rookie but he was between 2 solid vets who could help out.

He got better in 2014 before he got hurt under Mike Tice.

Who I would like to see come back if he is available

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2 hours ago, BamaBirdLady said:

Last year we had some beef on the line, Upshaw and Clayborn took up a whole of space on that D-Line, and they were not cap busters.

I mean we were the # 8 defense in the league last year, that is pretty good. Not sure where you guys are getting this, we weren't that good last year??

Please tell me what I am missing here!

I don't think our defense is bad, it could just be improved. Our redzone defense hasn't been up to par in quite a while. 

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2 hours ago, ChickenBiscuit said:

I don't think our defense is bad, it could just be improved. Our redzone defense hasn't been up to par in quite a while. 

So all I was saying was that the 2017 defense was better than the 2018.

What I know, we had the #8 defense in the league in 2017 based on points allowed, rushing and receiving yards allowed,  sacks, turnovers, average rush per carry and average yards per catch.

Some people love to dig into the embedded numbers to find what they want to confirm their hypothesis.  Politicians do it, the education system, where I work does it.

If a school get lower scores on tests, administrators will dig until they find numbers that make it look good. 7th grade math scores went up, 6th grade Science scores went up.  Does that mean the overall school score did not go down? No.

So go ahead and find the numbers to confirm your argument.  I have watched football long enough to say A defense is better than B defense.  Just like GA is a better team than OU.

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3 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

So all I was saying was that the 2017 defense was better than the 2018.

What I know, we had the #8 defense in the league in 2017 based on points allowed, rushing and receiving yards allowed,  sacks, turnovers, average rush per carry and average yards per catch.

Some people love to dig into the embedded numbers to find what they want to confirm their hypothesis.  Politicians do it, the education system, where I work does it.

If a school get lower scores on tests, administrators will dig until they find numbers that make it look good. 7th grade math scores went up, 6th grade Science scores went up.  Does that mean the overall school score did not go down? No.

So go ahead and find the numbers to confirm your argument.  I have watched football long enough to say A defense is better than B defense.  Just like GA is a better team than OU.

You're misunderstanding me. I'm not disputing the idea that our 2017 defense was better than the 2018 defense. That was the other guy. I'm saying that our red-zone defense and interior front 7 hasn't been that great and that's because of ignoring depth at DT and Beasley not panning out. 

Our 2017 defense was leagues better than it currently is. Alford was playing better, Trufant was playing better, we had Rico, etc.. but us being a bit soft up the middle has been a trend since Curtis Lofton left. That was my claim.

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Just now, ChickenBiscuit said:

You're misunderstanding me. I'm not disputing the idea that our 2017 defense was better than the 2018 defense. That was the other guy. I'm saying that our red-zone defense and interior front 7 hasn't been that great and that's because of ignoring depth at DT and Beasley not panning out. 

Our 2017 defense was leagues better than it currently is. Alford was playing better, Trufant was playing better, we had Rico, etc.. but us being a bit soft up the middle has been a trend since Curtis Lofton left. That was my claim.

Oh, got it. Agree with you completely. 

We have no depth, and what we did have that wasn't the cap buster guys, Upshaw and Clayborn, they let go. I think that really hurt us and nobody is talking about it.

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On 12/11/2018 at 3:32 PM, TRUju2111 said:

Ridley was a flashy pick, Oliver seemed like a steal. But to blatantly ignore the trenches in the first 2 rounds when that's what we needed most was and will continue to be our downfall for the next couple years.

Once again TD went for the flash and totally ignored the beef!

Yup, passing on Taven Bryan was the big difference in our season. :ninja:

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