matty72780

ACTUAL DATA PROVING SARK IS THE PROBLEM

87 posts in this topic

Here are a few stats that PROVE Sark is the problem. People who say “it’s not Sark” are the same problem with this organization, no accountability. Let’s face it Sark is in WAY over his head and stats below prove it. He has no track record of being a competent NFL coord/coach, has also been run out of town at all his college jobs. I get it, the oline isn’t performing as well but I chalk a large portion of that to scheme and playcalling. Sark calls plays without our limitations in mind - jet sweeps, empty backfield on short yardage situations making us one dimensional even if it’s just a decoy, Sanu throwing deep balls on 3rd downs, etc... You don’t regress the level of this without a major factor being coaching, period! We were averaging 38 points a game with the SAME players (injury bug is 90% on D). Now we’re averaging 24 points a game, a TWO TD DELTA!!!!

Now the proof: In 2016 Matt Ryan’s average “time to throw” was 2.64 seconds and in 2018 it’s 2.68. How is that not coaching? More time to throw, go from #1 O in league to 14th and you add Calvin Ridley.  This is a scheme issue, 100%!

2016: completion percent 69%, 2018 70%.

Rushing efficiency: 2018 Tevin Coleman 4.86, 2016 Devonta Freeman 4.05  

For the buck passers saying its not Sark let’s get real here! Data doesn’t lie, Sark is the problem, PERIOD! Even if we averaged 28 points a game (10 point regression) were sitting at 8-4 with a decimated defense. FIRE SARK!!!!!!!

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2016/all

Edited by matty72780

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Just now, DogIsYourName said:

This post is even worse than most of mine.

It’s true though. I can’t stand “it’s not Sarks fault” so I did some due dillegence and posted actual data for a reality check to anyone who thinks otherwise. You see daily posts about it not being Sarks fault so if it’s not Sarks fault where the data to prove it? My point exactly! 

FalconJim likes this

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1 minute ago, DogIsYourName said:

Your data is that Ryan has .02 seconds longer to throw, which is purely noise, and even if it wasn't it doesn't tie to coaching.  Your other data is that we score less and can't run the ball.  This correlates to losing, not coaching.

It’s not my data, it’s the Falcons actual data. The data shows Matt Ryan has more time to throw this year compared to 2016, the data also shows we run more efficiently this year than 2016. We go from #1 to #14 with more favorable statistics. This means Sarks scheme is the problem. If you don’t agree with that then there’s nothing I can do, every decision is predicated on data - the data proves Sarks the wrong decision. 

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I really didn’t feel like spending a bunch of time digging into data knowing that everyone on this board will just inevitably bash it so I wanted to bust everyone consistent excuses (o-line, running game). I’ve watched every single game and all data aside, our offense looks terrible under Sark. But just like the cluster F the Falcons org is, all people do is hate on each other on these boards. Level of dysfunction from Arthur Blank all the way to the Falcons message boards - no wonder our SB case is empty. 

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3 minutes ago, shc said:

Lies, **** Lies, and Statistics

 

Data doesn’t lie. Period. Data is what every successful organization uses to make any decision, without data you’re just “guessing” and guess work doesn’t work. 

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You're pointing out that our offense is way worse than that one year when we had the 8th best offense in history.

That doesn't really prove Sark is bad. It might be evidence that Shanny was really good, or that 2016 was a really good year, or maybe that Shanny is way better than Sark.

But it doesn't prove Sark is the problem.

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1 minute ago, DriveHomeSafelyAtlantaWins said:

You're pointing out that our offense is way worse than that one year when we had the 8th best offense in history.

That doesn't really prove Sark is bad. It might be evidence that Shanny was really good, or that 2016 was a really good year, or maybe that Shanny is way better than Sark.

But it doesn't prove Sark is the problem.

WHAT!? So let’s say you run a business and your CEO generates $100 million in revenue, then quits and you hire a new CEO that regresses your revenue to $50 million a year with the same staff that’s not the new CEO’s fault?  Not understanding your logic at all. 

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I’d be more interested to see the statistical breakdown as to when these stats were accumulated, e.g, by individual games and with the personnel, o linemen and then evaluated against the cumulative  totals. Then lay out the variances to show apples to apples and oranges to oranges! In the timing element, certain personnel would grade out higher, than the subs do or the backups. 

It would take more in-depth analysis to form any conclusions other than an off the cuff summary! 

So, while stats are nothing more than a high level hypothesis, it would take more data to form a viable conclusion! 

If one were to use these kind of stats over such a small sampling and small period of time to perform an analysis, they would have as much success in forming a conclusion as throwing darts for an answer, 

Not enough datum! 

RING OF HONOR likes this

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2 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

WHAT!? So let’s say you run a business and your CEO generates $100 million in revenue, then quits and you hire a new CEO that regresses your revenue to $50 million a year with the same staff that’s not the new CEO’s fault?  Not understanding your logic at all. 

You have to look for variables and other factors! Was there a coup, was there outside or other factors, was there a walk out, strike, materials shortages, insurance increase, law suit, etc...a high level claim does not support a knee jerk conclusion! 

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2 minutes ago, roguebeaver said:

I’d be more interested to see the statistical breakdown as to when these stats were accumulated, e.g, by individual games and with the personnel, o linemen and then evaluated against the cumulative  totals. Then lay out the variances to show apples to apples and oranges to oranges! In the timing element, certain personnel would grade out higher, than the subs do or the backups. 

It would take more in-depth analysis to form any conclusions other than an off the cuff summary! 

So, while stats are nothing more than a high level hypothesis, it would take more data to form a viable conclusion! 

If one were to use these kind of stats over such a small sampling and small period of time to perform an analysis, they would have as much success in forming a conclusion as throwing darts for an answer, 

Not enough datum! 

Completely agree however in many cases success is derived from year-over-year data. Sure you can get really granular with the analytics, which I agree have merrit but hiring coaching, drafting players, comparing a team over a team is all analytics. This is why most businesses gauge success in month-over-month & YoY data, if you can grow high level it’s usually an indication what you’re doing is working. Also, no way in heck I waste that much time on granular data on the disappointing Falcons, I’ve already wasted every football Sunday for 30 years, that’s enough haha. I appreciate the post though. 

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5 minutes ago, Pacific_Falcon said:

No the problem is Arthur Blank, if he hadn't stolen the Blair Witch's newspaper, we wouldn't even be talking about this ****.

Bahahahaha 

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15 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

I really didn’t feel like spending a bunch of time digging into data knowing that everyone on this board will just inevitably bash it so I wanted to bust everyone consistent excuses (o-line, running game). I’ve watched every single game and all data aside, our offense looks terrible under Sark. But just like the cluster F the Falcons org is, all people do is hate on each other on these boards. Level of dysfunction from Arthur Blank all the way to the Falcons message boards - no wonder our SB case is empty. 

No one is hating on anything, but you shouldn't cherry pick two random stats and then try to claim them as emperical proof of your conclusion. 

I do however like the linking in part the behavior on a message board to a failure to win a championship. That tenuous association shows an admirable level of consistency.

rugger8 and Boise Falcon Fan like this

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Just now, ya_boi_j said:

Sark isn’t the problem

That’s some compelling data you used here. You’re right, I changed my mind. Sark isn’t the problem. Thank you. 

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5 minutes ago, TheUsualStuff said:

No one is hating on anything, but you shouldn't cherry pick two random stats and then try to claim them as emperical proof of your conclusion. 

I do however like the linking in part the behavior on a message board to a failure to win a championship. That tenuous association shows an admirable level of consistency.

It’s 100% the message boards fault we blew the lead to the Pats. Someone wore navy blue socks instead of red, who was it!? 

Flying Falcon likes this

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5 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

That’s some compelling data you used here. You’re right, I changed my mind. Sark isn’t the problem. Thank you. 

I don’t need data when there’s video footage of players not doing their part to make the offense work. He **** sure isn’t out there dropping passes every week and allowing pass rushers to get at the qb within a split second. 

falconsd56 likes this

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2 minutes ago, RING OF HONOR said:

I hate stats....they never tell the whole truth....my eyes and the understanding of what I'm looking at doesn't lie...

I'm not a Sark lover....but there are many problems that dont start with him..

Agreed but you have to draw the line somewhere. I’ve seen so many posts that “Sark isn’t the problem”, “it’s our Oline”, “too many injuries”. I was simply providing comparable data to show that our #1 offense in 2016 was extremely similar to this year from a running efficiency, passing efficiency, and time to throw standpoint. The excuses have to stop somewhere and I haven’t seen one post providing metrics supporting Sark is doing a good job. 

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53 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

It’s true though. I can’t stand “it’s not Sarks fault” so I did some due dillegence and posted actual data for a reality check to anyone who thinks otherwise. You see daily posts about it not being Sarks fault so if it’s not Sarks fault where the data to prove it? My point exactly! 

We can't even put up 20 points 

matty72780 likes this

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