GhostofGritz

So, What Was the Deal With Julio Yesterday?

98 posts in this topic

On 12/3/2018 at 11:54 AM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Yes I can imagine this team without Julio. Free, Hoop, Ridley, Sanu and Gage are under contract in 2019. Add one contributor, solidify the Oline and DLine and we can win a Lombardi. We have won games without Julio before and can again if we fix the OLine and DLine. If you're saying we can't we're screwed.

Bro take a look at the last ten championship teams. Only three sent a WR or TE to the Pro Bowl the year they won. Julio may go to the Pro Bowl this year on a 4-12 or 8-8 team. You happy? Fk a pro Bowl. Truth be told most championship teams are doing it with good QB play and defense. Not hood ornaments like Julio, OBJ, AB, Fitz, DHop, Moss or T.O.

Matt Ryan is having a dam good season. With no running game and a Dimi Oline full of overpaid players that defenses are chomping at the bit to get after. Still he's Top 10 in Yards, TDs, Comp%, Int%, Yards Per Attempt, Passer Rating and QBR, with no OLinemen headed to the Pro Bowl this year. 

 

Yeah, Julio is going to want even more money on a new deal this year. And meanwhile we're bumping our heads on the cap ceiling, and need to retool our OL AND DL. IMO, Julio is dispensable in terms of winning (maybe not in terms of marketing), and he has trade value - a lot of it. He's also getting to an age where decline in play becomes a risk.

If we want to execute the strategy of winning in the trenches, it only makes sense to me to shift the investment dollars there, and using Julio for his trade value.

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3 minutes ago, GhostofGritz said:

There are very few arguments that can't be weakened by some statistical or even philosophical counterpoints.

Both of these lines are weak. If something that was virtually unthinkable 6 months ago (trading Julio) speeds up the process...I believe it's prudent to put it on the table.

Of course "just throwing resources at the problem" doesn't resolve it...especially if the people judging the qualifications of those same resources aren't particularly qualified. I'm not one of these "get rid of Dimitroff" fans but it's pretty clear to me that neither he or the college scouting department of the Falcons are particularly good at finding the "big uglies."

Your assertion carries with it the assumption that ANYONE is good at "finding" big uglies. I don't know if thats true. I think there are a handful of teams that develop OL players pretty well. But by and large, teams across the league have been struggling with assembling a quality OL for years. And again....this WAS a quality OL for the last three years. Which sorta rebuts the idea that the FO and coaching staff can't put together a good OL, doesnt it? 

As for his "argument" thats the thing....he isnt building an argument. He's throwing tired narratives at a goofy selection pool and drawing unsupported causal conclusions. 

There are no magic recipes for winning a Super Bowl. Teams have done it pretty much every way imaginable. They've done it with pass rush. They've done it with secondary play. They've done it running the ball. They've done it with stellar QB play. They've done it through the air. They've done it with special teams. 

The team should always strive to get better and that may include considering all options. But retrospective nonsense doesnt get anyone anywhere. 

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6 minutes ago, Power I said:

The highest paid left tackle (Taylor Lewan $16M) and highest paid TE (Jimmy Graham $10M) for $26M or Julio Jones for $20M? I didn't say Graham and certainly wouldn't say Lewan as they aren't the best at their position, just got what the market dictates. 

This isnt how deals should be assessed though. Because APY isnt cap hit. And cap hit is all that matters. And not for nothing but you can do this with pretty much any contract in the league. Especially new contracts. 

There's also the reality that Julio Jones doesnt make $20m a year....or anything close to it. So again, why are we arguing about hypothetical, unstructured numbers being compared to actual, existing contracts? 

The incentives for the Falcons and Julio on any potential further negotiations/contract adjustments are unique. Those incentives are whats going to dictate how any potential renegotiation shakes out. 

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Your assertion carries with it the assumption that ANYONE is good at "finding" big uglies. I don't know if thats true. I think there are a handful of teams that develop OL players pretty well. But by and large, teams across the league have been struggling with assembling a quality OL for years. And again....this WAS a quality OL for the last three years. Which sorta rebuts the idea that the FO and coaching staff can't put together a good OL, doesnt it? 

As for his "argument" thats the thing....he isnt building an argument. He's throwing tired narratives at a goofy selection pool and drawing unsupported causal conclusions. 

There are no magic recipes for winning a Super Bowl. Teams have done it pretty much every way imaginable. They've done it with pass rush. They've done it with secondary play. They've done it running the ball. They've done it with stellar QB play. They've done it through the air. They've done it with special teams. 

The team should always strive to get better and that may include considering all options. But retrospective nonsense doesnt get anyone anywhere. 

The Chargers, Cowboys, Raiders, Saints, Jags, Steelers and Rams seem to have no problem finding big uglies. 

The last five super bowl championship teams all had two things in common. Good QB play and run defense. We have good QB play but our GM let our run defense go to CAR. He replaced him with a big ugly named Terrell McClain. LMAO.

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20 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

The Chargers, Cowboys, Raiders, Saints, Jags, Steelers and Rams seem to have no problem finding big uglies. 

The last five super bowl championship teams all had two things in common. Good QB play and run defense. We have good QB play but our GM let our run defense go to CAR. He replaced him with a big ugly named Terrell McClain. LMAO.

lol

The Chargers had comfortably one of the very worst OLs in the league for nearly a decade. So did the Rams pre-McVay. The Raiders OL isnt any good but was for like two seasons 3 years ago. The Cowboys OL has eroded through injury and FA departure. Half of these teams have allowed a higher sack % than we have this year. 

The Steelers are pretty much the only team that has had sustained OL success for more than 3 seasons or so. Even the Saints OL was in dire straights a handful of years ago. 

As for "our run defense" going to Carolina....guess what? Our run defense was bad last year too. Spent most of the year in the bottom 5 in defensive DVOA. A late season push helped the overall numbers a little bit but it still ended up 20th in the league. And in 2016, the best season in Falcons history? 28th against the rush. And which team won the Super Bowl? The one that played worse rush defense....

And no, the last 5 SB champions dont have "good qb play and run defense" in common. Nor is analyzing the "last 5 SB Champions" a meaningful sample. Super Bowl teams are good teams. Good teams tend to be pretty good at most things. 

See, thats the problem with pretty your entire track of analysis. You simply pull random data points across the league and across seasons to "prove" the inefficiencies of the Falcons.

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2 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

lol

The Chargers had comfortably one of the very worst OLs in the league for nearly a decade. So did the Rams pre-McVay. The Raiders OL isnt any good but was for like two seasons 3 years ago. The Cowboys OL has eroded through injury and FA departure. Half of these teams have allowed a higher sack % than we have this year. 

The Steelers are pretty much the only team that has had sustained OL success for more than 3 seasons or so. Even the Saints OL was in dire straights a handful of years ago. 

As for "our run defense" going to Carolina....guess what? Our run defense was bad last year too. Spent most of the year in the bottom 5 in defensive DVOA. A late season push helped the overall numbers a little bit but it still ended up 20th in the league. And in 2016, the best season in Falcons history? 28th against the rush. And which team won the Super Bowl? The one that played worse rush defense....

And no, the last 5 SB champions dont have "good qb play and run defense" in common. Nor is analyzing the "last 5 SB Champions" a meaningful sample. Super Bowl teams are good teams. Good teams tend to be pretty good at most things. 

See, thats the problem with pretty your entire track of analysis. You simply pull random data points across the league and across seasons to "prove" the inefficiencies of the Falcons.

2017 - PHI - #1 run defense

2016 - NE - #4 run defense

2015 - DEN - #4 run defense

2014 - SEA - #3 run defense

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8 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

2017 - PHI - #1 run defense

2016 - NE - #4 run defense

2015 - DEN - #4 run defense

2014 - SEA - #3 run defense

Do I really need to explain this to you again....

When teams are good, they win. When teams spend more time winning, their opponents spend less time rushing. It also greatly increases run game predictability.

This is why overall yardage rankings arent valuable. 

And how's that working this year? The two best teams in the league are 30th and 31st in the league in YPC, and 18th/22nd in "rush defense rankings." 

No one wants to be godawful at run defense. But of all the discrete units, run defense is comfortably the least important. Because its most dependent on game script. 

And FTR - the 2015 Broncos most certainly did not have good QB play. 

 

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On 12/3/2018 at 9:39 AM, GhostofGritz said:

Is his hand hurt? I haven't seen anything written about it anywhere. Even before the possible hand injury he didn't look like he was mentally into that game.

He was hungover. 

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11 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Do I really need to explain this to you again....

When teams are good, they win. When teams spend more time winning, their opponents spend less time rushing. It also greatly increases run game predictability.

This is why overall yardage rankings arent valuable. 

And how's that working this year? The two best teams in the league are 30th and 31st in the league in YPC, and 18th/22nd in "rush defense rankings." 

No one wants to be godawful at run defense. But of all the discrete units, run defense is comfortably the least important. Because its most dependent on game script. 

And FTR - the 2015 Broncos most certainly did not have good QB play. 

 

And could get their teeth kicked in by teams like NO, CHI, HOU, BAL, MIN, PIT or DAL who all have top 10 run defenses.

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

This was posted on TATF months ago and pretty much laughed at.

I'll let you know when TATF becomes the paragon for quality football analysis, outside of about half a dozen people. 

The fact that you guys don't want to accept reality does not change reality. 

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Just now, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I'll let you know when TATF becomes the paragon for quality football analysis, outside of about half a dozen people. 

The fact that you guys don't want to accept reality does not change reality. 

Run defense is overrated until you get run over.

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Just now, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Run defense is overrated until you get run over.

Being bad at anything isnt good. Obviously. 

Howd that "til you get run over" plan work for the Rams against the Falcons in the playoffs last year? 7 yards per carry. Got that L though...

 

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1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Half of these teams have allowed a higher sack % than we have this year.

"The Falcons offensive line has given up a league-high 91 QB hits, and Ryan has been sacked 36 times this season through 12 tilts. He's on pace for a career-high 48 sacks, which would beat the 44 he took in 2013. The Falcons finished 4-12 in 2013."

It's not all about sacks.

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I aint totally opposed from moving on from any and everybody LOL. While I agree Julio is on his downside, would much rather part ways with Trufant and Freeman to start with. Cause#1 no reason to believe this team would be able to pick the right #1 pick or even a player that would make the deal worth it. Seriously even a number one pick has to be coached,think maybe the air has become toxic and not enough players are buying into it. Not to mention we are trying to find the quickest way back to a Super Bowl right?Barring those injuries at least they would make the playoffs, get rid of the players that arent contributing hardly at all, before we off load Ryan and Julio, cause Id unload them both if I thought it would bring a Super Bowl championship any quicker, but with this staff dont think thats the case. Think we would be closer with a new GM,HC,OC,DC,STC etc. Question with that though is who is the GM and who is the coach and the rest. A new staff might be able to mentally block out 28-3 that I see tatooed on Quinn's forehead LOL pretty much guarantee some of the players think thay way too, its only human nature. Think its a moot point though cause they are doing either, they will stay the course iron sharpens iron , fast and physical, get ready to rock what tag line did I miss.

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We've seen the offense last year without Julio and it was ugly. You do not trade HOF players. Dude shows up in the playoffs and is a gamechanger.

He's simply given up on this season just like half the team.

Not sure why yall are getting sucked into FFS1970 narrative when dude has been wrong many times.

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2 hours ago, 2_legit_2_legit_2_quit said:

"The Falcons offensive line has given up a league-high 91 QB hits, and Ryan has been sacked 36 times this season through 12 tilts. He's on pace for a career-high 48 sacks, which would beat the 44 he took in 2013. The Falcons finished 4-12 in 2013."

It's not all about sacks.

And those other lines that people talk about as being the best in the league? Right there with us. 

Oakland: 74 hits allowed. Dallas 82. Jacksonville 78. Philly 84. All of them on fewer pass attempts. 

 

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29 minutes ago, stizz said:

We've seen the offense last year without Julio and it was ugly. You do not trade HOF players. Dude shows up in the playoffs and is a gamechanger.

He's simply given up on this season just like half the team.

Not sure why yall are getting sucked into FFS1970 narrative when dude has been wrong many times.

We seen the offense the last four weeks with Julio and it was ugly.

Julio didn't miss any games last year but he missed two in 2016. We won both and averaged 42 ppg.

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6 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

And those other lines that people talk about as being the best in the league? Right there with us. 

Oakland: 74 hits allowed. Dallas 82. Jacksonville 78. Philly 84. All of them on fewer pass attempts. 

 

None of them have given up 91 hits. How many sacks have they allowed? How's their rushing offense?

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Just now, FalconFanSince1970 said:

We seen the offense the last four weeks with Julio and it was ugly.

Julio didn't miss any games last year but he missed two in 2016. We won both and averaged 42 ppg.

You've been on this train for years. The only reason you want to get rid of him is so you can say"I told you so."

Offense is garbage currently because we can't run the ball and have an incompetent OC.

Marquee players require marquee salaries. There's a ton of dead weight this team can cut to where he fits in our budget with zero issues. 

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

None of them have given up 91 hits. How many sacks have they allowed? How's their rushing offense?

We've actually given up 98 hits. Update your data. 

Of course, it matters that teams like Houston have given up 98 hits on more than 100 fewer attempts. Or Dallas giving up 82 on 100+ fewer attempts. Or that Dallas leads the league in sacks allowed. Or is second in the league in sack %, trailing only the Titans, who everyone SWORE had a great OL. 

Again, literally all you do is draw confirmation bias nonsense from a pool of 31 teams to attack the one team you allegedly root for. You do it with the draft. You do it with "stats." You do it with pretty much everything. 

It's logic that doesnt get you anywhere. It's chasing shadows. And its why so many teams in the league can't find their way....because they're chasing "results" without understanding process. 

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