Falcons Draft Standings

[IA Falcon07]

While the Falcons aren’t technically out of contention a lot of us are already starting to look forward to the off-season, and most specifically the draft given our potential to have a high pick.  With that in mind, here is a breakdown of how the remainder of the season could play out and what it means for the Falcons draft selection.

 

Remaining schedules (starting current worst):

Oakland Raiders:

Week      Opponent

13           Kansas City

14           Pittsburgh

15           @Cincinnati

16           Denver

17           @Kansas City

 The Raiders are not a good football team this year and coupled with a brutal schedule to end the season their chance of success appears to be slim to none.  Only team I would give them a fighting chance against is a banged-up Bengals team.  For this scenario I have them losing out.

Prediction: 2-14

 

San Francisco 49ers:

Week      Opponent

13           @Seattle

14           Denver

15           Seattle

16           Chicago

17           @LA Rams

The 49ers also face a tough schedule to round out their last five games with all teams still alive in the playoff race in their respective conferences.  I would give them slim hope of winning any of their remaining games as the Broncos, who would have been their weakest remaining opponent, have been looking much better over the past couple weeks over.

Prediction: 2-14

 

Arizona Cardinals:

Week      Opponent

13           @Green Bay

14           Detroit

15           @Atlanta

16           LA Rams

17           @Seattle

The last of the two-win teams, both Cardinals wins are against the 49ers and they’ve been a part of many lopsided losses throughout the 2018 season.  They do face three current four-win teams over the next three straight weeks, but all three teams have offenses that should can exploit a poor defense.

Prediction: 2-14

 

New York Jets:

Week      Opponent

13           @Tennessee

14           @Buffalo

15           Houston

16           Green Bay

17           @New England

The Jets are on a terrible run right now losing five straight games.  While they had a few games earlier this season where they put out surprising offensive outputs and won some games with some good run defenses coming up I don’t think the game script bodes well for them over the last five.  My gut feeling is to give them one win, but I just can’t pick a team for them to beat so here is a fourth straight winless team to close out the season.

Prediction: 3-13

 

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Week      Opponent

13           Indianapolis

14           @Tennessee

15           Washington

16           @Miami

17           @Houston

A benched QB, fired offensive coordinator--usually spells DISASTER.  I am going the other way with this one though, the Jags have lost a lot of one score games and find a way to get a little defensive swagger back, they pull off two wins late in the season.

Prediction: 5-11

 

New York Giants:

Week      Opponent

13           Chicago

14           @Washington

15           Tennessee

16           @Indianapolis

17           @Dallas

 Giants are looking up the last few weeks but face a tough slate to end the season.  They pull out one win over the next five games.

 Prediction: 4-12

 

Detroit Lions:

Week      Opponent

13           LA Rams

14           @Arizona

15           @Buffalo

16           Minnesota

17           @Green Bay

 An up and down season with no consistency so far and that’s exactly how I expect the Lions to end the year.  They only manage to pick up one more win down the stretch.

 Prediction: 5-11

 

Buffalo Bills:

Week      Opponent

13           @Miami

14           New York Jets

15           Detroit

16           @New England

17           Miami

My surprise team down the stretch, the Bills have a somewhat favorable schedule.  They pull out three wins in the last five games (NYJ, Detroit @ Home, split with Dolphins) and hurt their draft stock in the process. 

Prediction: 7-9

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Week      Opponent

13           Carolina

14           New Orleans

15           @Baltimore

16           @Dallas

17           Atlanta

A tough stretch of four games with teams in the thick of the playoff race will be too much for the Bucs to handle.  They wrap up week 17with a five-game losing streak after narrowly losing to the Falcons in a shootout.

Prediction: 4-12

 

Atlanta Falcons:

Week      Opponent

13           Baltimore

14           @Green Bay

15           Arizona

16           @Carolina

17           @Tampa Bay

This feels like the most difficult prediction seeing how bi-polar the Falcons play has been this season, it feels like every game could be won or lost.  My gut says three wins, but I am going with wins vs. Arizona and Tampa and loses versus Green Bay, Carolina, and Baltimore.

Prediction: 6-10

 

Cleveland Browns:

Week      Opponent

13           @Houston

14           Carolina

15           @Denver

16           Cincinnati

17           @Baltimore

The Browns have been trending up the past few weeks but play a stretch of tough defenses to end the year.  They complete the season sweet of the Bengals week 16 for their last win of the year.

Prediction: 5-10-1

 

Green Bay Packers: 

Week      Opponent

13           Arizona

14           Atlanta

15           @Chicago

16           @New York Jets

17           Detroit

Green Bay wraps up the season with a very winnable schedule. They stumble once on the road versus a strong Bears while taking 4-out-of-5 to end the season:

Prediction: 8-7-1

 

There are also five current 5-win teams (Dolphins, Cincinnati, Denver, Tennessee), of those teams I see only Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Miami struggling to find two more wins to make them 7-win teams.  Cincinnati I have only scraping by Oakland to get their 6^th win.

 

Final Standing:

1.       Oakland Raiders (2-14)

2.       San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

3.       Arizona Cardinals (2-14)

4.       New York Jets (3-13)

5.       New York Giants (4-12)

6.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

7.       Detroit Lions (5-11)

8.       Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

9.       Cleveland Browns (5-10-1)

10.    Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

11.    Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

12.    Buffalo Bills (7-9)

**I did not bother sorting out tie-breakers**

 

One interesting thing that stuck out while putting together the schedules is that there are a LOT of bottom half teams that have games remaining versus one another, so the volatility in standing could be substantial.  A seventh win for the Falcons, which I still think is very possible, could easily drop them to picking in the mid-teens which would likely be worst case scenario.

What is your prediction for final records of teams in the bottom ~12?

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by IA Falcon07

[IA Falcon07]

Updated.

Edited November 30, 2018 by IA Falcon07

[1989Fan]

The Falcons will win out just to ensure they miss the playoffs and a top draft pick!

[ryanadonis]

11 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

The Falcons will win out just to ensure they miss the playoffs and a top draft pick!

Offense will start clicking once we are mathematically out

[IA Falcon07]

26 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

The Falcons will win out just to ensure they miss the playoffs and a top draft pick!

That’s why my gut says 7 wins, but the team just doesn’t play like that. Can only hope not. Either get in or remain terrible 

[MAD597]

I hope 4-12 it will give us a better draft and put all the coaches on notice and hopefully force several firings.

But I'm sure we will screw that up go 7-9 and use the injury excuse to keep everything and everyone status quo while not having a top 10 pick.

This team will screw up losing even if it's in our long term best interest for this lost season.

[Cole World]

We will MTL win all the games except the Carolina game so 8-8. We had our best draft in 2016 when we picked in the middle of each round.

GB have injuries all in their secondary and they are not good against the run.

Arizona is Arizona

TB is TB

The return of Deion Jones will help against Baltimore.

[celtiksage]

1 hour ago, IA Falcon07 said:

While the Falcons aren’t technically out of contention a lot of us are already starting to look forward to the off-season, and most specifically the draft given our potential to have a high pick.  With that in mind, here is a breakdown of how the remainder of the season could play out and what it means for the Falcons draft selection.

 

Remaining schedules (starting current worst):

Oakland Raiders:

Week      Opponent

13           Kansas City

14           Pittsburgh

15           @Cincinnati

16           Denver

17           @Kansas City

 The Raiders are not a good football team this year and coupled with a brutal schedule to end the season their chance of success appears to be slim to none.  Only team I would give them a fighting chance against is a banged-up Bengals team.  For this scenario I have them losing out.

Prediction: 2-14

 

San Francisco 49ers:

Week      Opponent

13           @Seattle

14           Denver

15           Seattle

16           Chicago

17           @LA Rams

The 49ers also face a tough schedule to round out their last five games with all teams still alive in the playoff race in their respective conferences.  I would give them slim hope of winning any of their remaining games as the Broncos, who would have been their weakest remaining opponent, have been looking much better over the past couple weeks over.

Prediction: 2-14

 

Arizona Cardinals:

Week      Opponent

13           @Green Bay

14           Detroit

15           @Atlanta

16           LA Rams

17           @Seattle

The last of the two-win teams, both Cardinals wins are against the 49ers and they’ve been a part of many lopsided losses throughout the 2018 season.  They do face three current four-win teams over the next three straight weeks, but all three teams have offenses that should can exploit a poor defense.

Prediction: 2-14

 

New York Jets:

Week      Opponent

13           @Tennessee

14           @Buffalo

15           Houston

16           Green Bay

17           @New England

The Jets are on a terrible run right now losing five straight games.  While they had a few games earlier this season where they put out surprising offensive outputs and won some games with some good run defenses coming up I don’t think the game script bodes well for them over the last five.  My gut feeling is to give them one win, but I just can’t pick a team for them to beat so here is a fourth straight winless team to close out the season.

Prediction: 3-13

 

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Week      Opponent

13           Indianapolis

14           @Tennessee

15           Washington

16           @Miami

17           @Houston

A benched QB, fired offensive coordinator--usually spells DISASTER.  I am going the other way with this one though, the Jags have lost a lot of one score games and find a way to get a little defensive swagger back, they pull off two wins late in the season.

Prediction: 5-11

 

New York Giants:

Week      Opponent

13           Chicago

14           @Washington

15           Tennessee

16           @Indianapolis

17           @Dallas

 Giants are looking up the last few weeks but face a tough slate to end the season.  They pull out one win over the next five games.

 Prediction: 4-12

 

Detroit Lions:

Week      Opponent

13           LA Rams

14           @Arizona

15           @Buffalo

16           Minnesota

17           @Green Bay

 An up and down season with no consistency so far and that’s exactly how I expect the Lions to end the year.  They only manage to pick up one more win down the stretch.

 Prediction: 5-11

 

Buffalo Bills:

Week      Opponent

13           @Miami

14           New York Jets

15           Detroit

16           @New England

17           Miami

My surprise team down the stretch, the Bills have a somewhat favorable schedule.  They pull out three wins in the last five games (NYJ, Detroit @ Home, split with Dolphins) and hurt their draft stock in the process. 

Prediction: 7-9

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Week      Opponent

13           Carolina

14           New Orleans

15           @Baltimore

16           @Dallas

17           Atlanta

A tough stretch of four games with teams in the thick of the playoff race will be too much for the Bucs to handle.  They wrap up week 17with a five-game losing streak after narrowly losing to the Falcons in a shootout.

Prediction: 4-12

 

Atlanta Falcons:

Week      Opponent

13           Baltimore

14           @Green Bay

15           Arizona

16           @Carolina

17           @Tampa Bay

This feels like the most difficult prediction seeing how bi-polar the Falcons play has been this season, it feels like every game could be won or lost.  My gut says three wins, but I am going with wins vs. Arizona and Tampa and loses versus Green Bay, Carolina, and Baltimore.

Prediction: 6-10

 

Cleveland Browns:

Week      Opponent

13           @Houston

14           Carolina

15           @Denver

16           Cincinnati

17           @Baltimore

The Browns have been trending up the past few weeks but play a stretch of tough defenses to end the year.  They complete the season sweet of the Bengals week 16 for their last win of the year.

Prediction: 5-10-1

 

Green Bay Packers: 

Week      Opponent

13           Arizona

14           Atlanta

15           @Chicago

16           @New York Jets

17           Detroit

Green Bay wraps up the season with a very winnable schedule. They stumble once on the road versus a strong Bears while taking 4-out-of-5 to end the season:

Prediction: 8-7-1

 

There are also five current 5-win teams (Dolphins, Cincinnati, Denver, Tennessee), of those teams I see only Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Miami struggling to find two more wins to make them 7-win teams.  Cincinnati I have only scraping by Oakland to get their 6^th win.

 

Final Standing:

1.       Oakland Raiders (2-14)

2.       San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

3.       Arizona Cardinals (2-14)

4.       New York Jets (3-13)

5.       New York Giants (4-12)

6.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

7.       Detroit Lions (5-11)

8.       Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

9.       Cleveland Browns (5-10-1)

10.    Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

11.    Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

12.    Buffalo Bills (7-9)

**I did not bother sorting out tie-breakers**

 

One interesting thing that stuck out while putting together the schedules is that there are a LOT of bottom half teams that have games remaining versus one another, so the volatility in standing could be substantial.  A seventh win for the Falcons, which I still think is very possible, could easily drop them to picking in the mid-teens which would likely be worst case scenario.

What is your prediction for final records of teams in the bottom ~12?

 

I posted somewhere, but right now, there are 23 teams that are under 7 wins. Of those, 15 will have to work hard to win 7 games. I expect if we win 7, we are picking 15th or later, probably more like 17th or 18th. There are a lot of bottom feeders at the moment.

We need to hope that those teams who we know aren't going to win 7 continue to lose, like Oakland, AZ and SF. Cinci, Detroit, Miami and a lot of those on the cusp need to win a game or two.

[IA Falcon07]

13 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

I posted somewhere, but right now, there are 23 teams that are under 7 wins. Of those, 15 will have to work hard to win 7 games. I expect if we win 7, we are picking 15th or later, probably more like 17th or 18th. There are a lot of bottom feeders at the moment.

We need to hope that those teams who we know aren't going to win 7 continue to lose, like Oakland, AZ and SF. Cinci, Detroit, Miami and a lot of those on the cusp need to win a game or two.

Most of the 5 and 6 win teams have what *should* be at least one if not 2 easy wins on their schedule. The only good part about the Saints winning so much is that it helps the Falcons SoS for tie breaking purposes. Agreed though, 7 wins would be an interesting scenario with how many teams will finish right in that area. 

[Falcons_Frenzy]

I don't endorse tanking but if the Falcons somehow manage to lose out at least the upside is a higher pick. Personally I would like to see them win the last 3 games and finish strong. Better yet win out. Yes I'm aware it gives them a worse pick. I don't care. The momentum and confidence it can give them for next year can't be measured. The coaches and players need to believe in everyone again. Before flaming away remember there are no guarantees in the draft. The #1 pick could be the biggest bust in NFL history. The number 18th pick might end up a greatest of all time candidate. Instead, try to believe no matter where the Falcons pick they get it right.

[FalconinPA]

Man, never could anyone have made me believe at the beginning of the season that we would have a chance to get a top 10 pick

[Jesus]

The people who constantly complain about the drafting habits of this coach and GM, want them to have more draft capital and higher picks every year. 

[Boise Falcon Fan]

I am totally in the tanking group.  This season has been an unmitigated disaster, and I can't wait to get to the offseason.  Get healthy, get a free agent or two, high draft pick - trade down for more picks, etc., and next year could be nice.

[IA Falcon07]

50 minutes ago, Falcons_Frenzy said:

I don't endorse tanking but if the Falcons somehow manage to lose out at least the upside is a higher pick. Personally I would like to see them win the last 3 games and finish strong. Better yet win out. Yes I'm aware it gives them a worse pick. I don't care. The momentum and confidence it can give them for next year can't be measured. The coaches and players need to believe in everyone again. Before flaming away remember there are no guarantees in the draft. The #1 pick could be the biggest bust in NFL history. The number 18th pick might end up a greatest of all time candidate. Instead, try to believe no matter where the Falcons pick they get it right.

I’m not endorsing tanking per say, this is just truly how the team looks to me at this point in the season. This draft is loaded so #10 or #17 there will be good players available as long as the staff does their homework correctly.

[IA Falcon07]

48 minutes ago, FalconinPA said:

Man, never could anyone have made me believe at the beginning of the season that we would have a chance to get a top 10 pick

100% with you on that one. Figured it’d be late 20s at worst. 

[FalconinPA]

4 minutes ago, IA Falcon07 said:

100% with you on that one. Figured it’d be late 20s at worst. 

SMH

[celtiksage]

1 hour ago, IA Falcon07 said:

Most of the 5 and 6 win teams have what *should* be at least one if not 2 easy wins on their schedule. The only good part about the Saints winning so much is that it helps the Falcons SoS for tie breaking purposes. Agreed though, 7 wins would be an interesting scenario with how many teams will finish right in that area. 

 

1 hour ago, Falcons_Frenzy said:

I don't endorse tanking but if the Falcons somehow manage to lose out at least the upside is a higher pick. Personally I would like to see them win the last 3 games and finish strong. Better yet win out. Yes I'm aware it gives them a worse pick. I don't care. The momentum and confidence it can give them for next year can't be measured. The coaches and players need to believe in everyone again. Before flaming away remember there are no guarantees in the draft. The #1 pick could be the biggest bust in NFL history. The number 18th pick might end up a greatest of all time candidate. Instead, try to believe no matter where the Falcons pick they get it right.

Both very true. I still want to win, and I am starting to think "maybe" in regards to the Ravens game, but they're new shiny QB probably puts up 300. Unreal how good we make some teams look this year. 

Can't wait until next year.

[FalconFanSince1970]

3 hours ago, MAD597 said:

I hope 4-12 it will give us a better draft and put all the coaches on notice and hopefully force several firings.

But I'm sure we will screw that up go 7-9 and use the injury excuse to keep everything and everyone status quo while not having a top 10 pick.

This team will screw up losing even if it's in our long term best interest for this lost season.

Why is a top 10 pick so important to you. We used our last one on Vic Beasley.

[celtiksage]

3 hours ago, IA Falcon07 said:

Most of the 5 and 6 win teams have what *should* be at least one if not 2 easy wins on their schedule. The only good part about the Saints winning so much is that it helps the Falcons SoS for tie breaking purposes. Agreed though, 7 wins would be an interesting scenario with how many teams will finish right in that area. 

The Saints winning hurts us in SOS. The team with the higher strength of schedule picks lower in the draft than a team with the same record but lower SOS. If you have a lower SOS, then essentually you should have lost more games than a team with a higher SOS, thus the team with the lower SOS picks first.

I think that's how it works. Lol

[IA Falcon07]

4 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

The Saints winning hurts us in SOS. The team with the higher strength of schedule picks lower in the draft than a team with the same record but lower SOS. If you have a lower SOS, then essentually you should have lost more games than a team with a higher SOS, thus the team with the lower SOS picks first.

I think that's how it works. Lol

Ah you're right, I was thinking backwards.

[kiwifalcon]

5 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

The Falcons will win out just to ensure they miss the playoffs and a top draft pick!

I'm hoping for that so I can read all the negative nancies say how we can't even lose when we need to.

 

[mattyicefalcon]

7 hours ago, R_The_Great said:

Offense will start clicking once we are mathematically out

Lol it is because of our **** defense we have been losing not offense.

 

[ryanadonis]

4 minutes ago, mattyicefalcon said:

Lol it is because of our **** defense we have been losing not offense.

 

Last 3 weeks have been because of defense only? 

[mattyicefalcon]

3 minutes ago, R_The_Great said:

Last 3 weeks have been because of defense only? 

Falcons DEFENSE is the reason we are in this position.

Look back ALL the games at macro level and understand WHY we lost games we should have won.

Fyi = Our offense is what it is...Qb  best in league in passing yards and WR Julio best in receiving. 

What has our DEFENSE achieved barring  KAZEE pro bowl performance?

[Born Again Georgian]

1 hour ago, mattyicefalcon said:

Falcons DEFENSE is the reason we are in this position.

Look back ALL the games at macro level and understand WHY we lost games we should have won.

Fyi = Our offense is what it is...Qb  best in league in passing yards and WR Julio best in receiving. 

What has our DEFENSE achieved barring  KAZEE pro bowl performance?

I feel like the last three games I’ve watched the offense fumble and turnover games away...