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vel

2018 Atlanta Falcons and going forward...

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13 minutes ago, 4dabirds said:

This team's defense is bad at communicating, and we see this week after week? It appears as though the fundamentals are not being coached here. If this is the case, then it is on DQ. I don't want DQ gone, but he sure as **** needs to improve the way his team practices, or he will be gone.

Agreed. The loss of Rico, Debo, and Neal contribute to the poor communication. But this isn't a hard defense to communicate in. Constantly dropping 8 in hopes of better coverage then complaining about the lack of pressure is some Mike Smith shlt at it's finest. DQ has to step up and put some pressure on Manuel to produce. 

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Good post Vel. 

The “Fire Quinn” talk has gotten rediculous. These people act as if there aren’t legit personnel issues with the Falcons. Even if healthy, the team would still be suspect on the line of scrimmage. 

This team losing will be a good thing draft wise. Shore up on the lines and you have very talented team going into next season. 

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Oh definitely but that will be offset by cutting Vic. No way they are paying that $13MM as of now. DQ has clearly been over finding the talent for the defense (Foye, Senat, Oliver) but he needs to take the reigns of making this defense good. I think once he takes over, he's lost confidence in his DC, which is why Smith was fired. But at this point, we've seen enough. 

Vel, I wish you were right, but I don't see MM going anywhere.  The injuries will shield him.  At best, we will see a "consultant" be brought in (like we did on offense).  

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4 minutes ago, vel said:

Lol it's all relative. The Spurs weren't bad. They just had bad luck and benefited greatly from it. The Colts, after Peyton's injury, weren't bad, just lost a HOF QB and "Lucked" up and got Andrew Luck. Fully healthy, this isn't a bad team. Fully healthy, this team is picking in the mid to high 20s where playoff teams pick, far from your franchise players pick in the top 15. The Saints gave up a first rounder last year just to move up for Davenport. I'd rather not. 

And yes, DQ may have an 8-8 season, a blown SB, and other warts on his resume. But let's fire him and hire....Who? Go ahead. 

I didn't say to fire him this year but those are hardly things I'd want on my resume. 

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We will not and should not fire Quinn.  However, a serious high level meeting needs to take place.  Quinn has to improve his in-game decisions.  Quality control coaches need to be added to the staff (to improve year-round coaching), and a defensive consultant to help MM will need to be hired.  

Arthur had better get busy.  Otherwise, he will never see a championship in Atlanta.   

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3 minutes ago, ZoneOne01 said:

Good post Vel. 

The “Fire Quinn” talk has gotten rediculous. These people act as if there aren’t legit personnel issues with the Falcons. Even if healthy, the team would still be suspect on the line of scrimmage. 

This team losing will be a good thing draft wise. Shore up on the lines and you have very talented team going into next season. 

Exactly. There is 2-3 spots on the OL to upgrade (LG, RG, and RT depending on how you feel about the current players there) and the rest should be DL investments. It's set up for these moves. Thankfully Foye stepped up at LB and Kazee showed he's what we thought, shoring up both the secondary and LBs. With a better DL, I think you'll see the CB play improve. We'll be able to add a player we otherwise would have had to trade up heavily for. 

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As for cap space as well, we currently $28.2MM. Add in the $5.2MM that will roll over, and we're looking at $33.4MM in cap space. 

A few moves that can be made to grow that number and put us in a better position to improve the roster:

Rescind Vic's fifth year option: $12.8MM
Cut Alford: $8MM
Cut Reed: $4.5MM

Those three moves right there open up another ~$25MM, putting us at almost $60MM in cap space. That doesn't factor any potential restructures for guys like Schraeder, Sanu, Trufant, and Julio. Yes, we have to re-sign Grady and will probably bring Teco back now. But largely speaking, we will have a very solid cap position to attract some solid DL additions to this team. I would hate to see Alford go, but he's 30 and relies heavily on his athleticism and saving $8MM is enticing if Oliver continues to progress. Reed has been a nonfactor this year.

This should be a very active offseason and we should see a drastic change in the outlook of this defense. Keyword for all of this is "should". Who knows...

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7 minutes ago, vel said:

As for cap space as well, we currently $28.2MM. Add in the $5.2MM that will roll over, and we're looking at $33.4MM in cap space. 

A few moves that can be made to grow that number and put us in a better position to improve the roster:

Rescind Vic's fifth year option: $12.8MM
Cut Alford: $8MM
Cut Reed: $4.5MM

Those three moves right there open up another ~$25MM, putting us at almost $60MM in cap space. That doesn't factor any potential restructures for guys like Schraeder, Sanu, Trufant, and Julio. Yes, we have to re-sign Grady and will probably bring Teco back now. But largely speaking, we will have a very solid cap position to attract some solid DL additions to this team. I would hate to see Alford go, but he's 30 and relies heavily on his athleticism and saving $8MM is enticing if Oliver continues to progress. Reed has been a nonfactor this year.

This should be a very active offseason and we should see a drastic change in the outlook of this defense. Keyword for all of this is "should". Who knows...

Alford was just a hold over until we found his replacement anyway. He is not DQs prototypical CB. 

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46 minutes ago, etherdome said:

Question:  Is Schraeder a better OG than OT?  

KoG mentioned this about a month ago.

Its an interesting one.

G wise if I were the coach and FO I'd be getting in Macks ear and asking him who do you want next too you,these are your options in the Draft & FA.

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14 minutes ago, vel said:

As for cap space as well, we currently $28.2MM. Add in the $5.2MM that will roll over, and we're looking at $33.4MM in cap space. 

A few moves that can be made to grow that number and put us in a better position to improve the roster:

Rescind Vic's fifth year option: $12.8MM
Cut Alford: $8MM
Cut Reed: $4.5MM

Those three moves right there open up another ~$25MM, putting us at almost $60MM in cap space. That doesn't factor any potential restructures for guys like Schraeder, Sanu, Trufant, and Julio. Yes, we have to re-sign Grady and will probably bring Teco back now. But largely speaking, we will have a very solid cap position to attract some solid DL additions to this team. I would hate to see Alford go, but he's 30 and relies heavily on his athleticism and saving $8MM is enticing if Oliver continues to progress. Reed has been a nonfactor this year.

This should be a very active offseason and we should see a drastic change in the outlook of this defense. Keyword for all of this is "should". Who knows...

I'm keeping Alford Vel much like Free who alot round here have thrown under the bus I'd keep him for another year for sure.

Unlike alot I'm not making rash decisions but I shorten the leash if we see the same next year with everyone back I look to rebuild at CB.

Pass rusher has to be the go to in the draft we need another Takk McKinley type player but one that doesn't talk as much just produces on the field.

I yelled from the roof tops for Carl Lawson 2 years ago and now what I'm seeing from him at the Bengals and where he was picked inthe 4 th round he'd have been the Jarrett type pick clone.If we'd have grabbed him This Beasley Reed Shelby roundabout would have been solved.

Sorry for the hindsight revisionist last paragraph above.

 

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12 hours ago, vel said:

I see a lot of people complaining about the lost season and wanting DQ gone. 

First, you're an idiot if you want DQ gone. This is going to be his first losing season. He's already won more playoff games than Mike Smith did in half the time. It took a ton of injuries to tank this season. That sometimes is not a bad thing. It exposes your flaws while giving you the opportunity to secure a premiere talent you otherwise wouldn't have had the chance to draft without a massive trade up. Want an example? See: San Antonio Spurs. The last time they were putrid, they lost David Robinson for the season, drafted Tim Duncan after it and the rest is history. 

If you think it's a good idea to fire the man who had his team in the SB and the only NFC team to return to the playoffs last year AND win, then you're an emotional idiot. Simply put. Not mincing my words. Look at the Eagles. They went from SB champs to looking like shlt.  The Jags finally got a taste of playoff success and may not even make it back to the playoffs after being close to a SB berth vs NE last year. You can't say that about DQ and the Falcons after blowing the biggest lead in NFL history. That shows you his worth. 

Where I fault DQ is the blind faith he has in his coordinators at times. He had blind faith in Kyle and it worked out. He had blind faith in Sark in 2017 and it bit him. He corrected that by getting Sark help in Greg Knapp and making changes. We see the result. Even after losing Free, Levitre, and Fusco, Sark and the offense have been rolling largely this season. He hasn't done that on defense. Yes, there are a ton of injuries, especially to key players. But you see teams adjust. HeIl, Pedersen lost Wentz and adjusted and won a SB with Nick Foles.

The problem with Manuel is that he's been overly reliant on his talent doing the hard work and heavy lifting and him just rotating through a handful of calls. It's very Mike Smith/BVG like. People killed Sark around here last year, yet you at least see what Sark was trying to do and how he was trying to attack. Even with the jet sweep, that blew everyone's lid. Look at this season. You've seen more jet sweeps from the one ran and scored. You see Sark's overall creativity coming through. Yes, he's had some errors, but you can't say the same for Manuel. It's Cover 3, Cover 1, the occasional nickel blitz, and then dropping 8. It signals to the team that you aren't confident in the hand you've been dealt. You haven't seen him even try to take away a team's best weapon or method of attack. You constantly see our LBs bailing and leaving massive amounts of space, coverages blown, assignments missed. For a simple scheme and only a handful of coverages called, that they've ran since at least high school, it's unacceptable. Honestly, after 32 games, I've seen enough of Manuel to know he isn't cut out to be a coordinator in the NFL. All those complaints yall had for Sark not being an NFL OC, just change them and apply them to Manuel. He's out of his league. Take a look at a guy like Vic Fangio and how he attacks nightly and look at how passive Manuel's scheme is. We saw how the defense changed as soon as DQ took it over from Smith. This isn't his defense. He's giving Manuel room to grow, but I haven't seen any growth yet. They had a three game stretch to end the year last year, but largely have been no good. Just a line up and go defense. I can call that. He's got to go. Game on the line and your DC calls this:

He should be fire. 3rd & 5 and you send a 3 man rush and you still have guys lost as ****. DQ should get heat for continually green lighting these gameplans and playcalls. That's about it for me on DQ. 

Right now, the way the Falcons are constructed, they are actually in good shape to improve and quickly, thanks to a lost season. Right now, Sark's biggest crutch on offense is the inconsistency of the OL. If you look at the last two weeks to see why scoring is down, you'll quickly see the OL as the culprit. In the last two games, they've given up 5 sacks and 14 hits. Schraeder is washed and needs to be replaced. Garland is solid, but not a RG you build around. Wes has been solid, Jake has been good, and Mack has been fine. But look at the Saints OL for comparison: 

Armstead - Pro Bowler
Peat - First Rounder
Unger - Pro Bowler
Warford - Pro Bowler
Ramcyzk - First Rounder

That's how you not only invest in your OL, but extend your QB's career. Betting on Garland is not a wise bet. Hoping a 31 year old Schraeder bounces back in 2019 is not a bet they even made on Clabo, who was similar and fell off very fast. We don't need WRs, TEs, or RBs. At this point, the only offensive investment to be made is along the OL.

As for the defense, I know people are frustrated with the corners, but the only thing that needs talent is the DL. Period. We have good LBs with Foye now stepping up. Our secondary is pretty set with both our safeties coming back and the continued development of Oliver. Invest in a more vicious DL and now your secondary has help. We don't have enough teeth on the DL. We haven't had the draft/FA capital to go DL like DQ has wanted, but the last time we picked early, we took a pass rusher. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen once more. There are plenty to choose from and this is the deepest draft in a long time. Also, we finally have some cap space (~$28MM) and can make some moves to make more. 

Overall, this roster isn't in terrible shape. DQ has some big coaching changes he needs to take hard looks at and some roster moves he needs to make to come back hot in 2019. Cuz, baby...this one's been cooked for weeks now. Let's just accept it for what it is. 

I stopped after chapter 1...:(

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didnt read it all but all I want to see is:
1. Keep the coaching staff; theyre' fine Rebuilding is the worst. 

2. Invest in the lines. Heavily

3. Keep developing our young talent. 

4. Run the ball. then run it some more. 

 

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I don’t want to fire Quinn either, not after one bad injury riddled season.....but he deserves plenty of the criticism that’s been coming his way. 

Who hired Manuel to replace Richard Smith? Who kept trotting Duke Riley/Jordan Richards out there game after game? Who in year 4 on the job keeps making critical situational coaching mistakes at end of games?

 

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I'm totally with you Vel on Manuel.

He's not the right man for the job. I posted a vid last week of him, and he's nothing but a motivational speaker disguised as a DC. Gets outcoached every gameday, has the knowledge level of high school football.

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4 hours ago, JerseyNo12 said:

Omg the hate on this board for DQ.

He's not dumb, he's just loyal to a fault. 

@vel Outstanding post as usual. Always appreciate your detailed insight. Let's hope this season's failures are lessons the team will learn from and improve upon moving forward.

 

Being loyal over what's in the best interest of the overall business is a perfect example of dumb. Ask Belichick how important loyalty is. 

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Last but not least. I get to work on Monday and the first Cowboys fan I see is screaming at the top of his lungs about the game to me. You would have though it was the super bowl with his reaction. The reality is they barely beat a bad team playing like crap most of the day. This overreaction by a Cowboys fan reminds me why I hate that team so much. 

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4 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

I'm keeping Alford Vel much like Free who alot round here have thrown under the bus I'd keep him for another year for sure.

Unlike alot I'm not making rash decisions but I shorten the leash if we see the same next year with everyone back I look to rebuild at CB.

Pass rusher has to be the go to in the draft we need another Takk McKinley type player but one that doesn't talk as much just produces on the field.

I yelled from the roof tops for Carl Lawson 2 years ago and now what I'm seeing from him at the Bengals and where he was picked inthe 4 th round he'd have been the Jarrett type pick clone.If we'd have grabbed him This Beasley Reed Shelby roundabout would have been solved.

Sorry for the hindsight revisionist last paragraph above.

 

Oh I'm not fully advocating for cutting Alford, but having $8MM in cap space from cutting him will be enticing after this season. Just a level to pull, given how deep the secondary is when healthy. Tru is going to be here. Oliver has shown glimpses of him being a starting caliber outside corner. Kazee has shown he deserves more snaps and could replace Poole. With Rico and Neal and an improved pass rush, I could see Alford being replaced fairly quickly. That's all.

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3 hours ago, Vandy said:

I don’t want to fire Quinn either, not after one bad injury riddled season.....but he deserves plenty of the criticism that’s been coming his way. 

Who hired Manuel to replace Richard Smith? Who kept trotting Duke Riley/Jordan Richards out there game after game? Who in year 4 on the job keeps making critical situational coaching mistakes at end of games?

 

Yep. After firing Smith, he should have taken over gameday playcalling until Manuel showed he was capable. He makes big bets and places large amounts of faith in his decisions and others and I like that, but he's got to learn to be more discerning. He rolled with Sark with no safety net last year. Same with Duke. Same with Richards. BUT! He's corrected them since by bringing in Knapp, finding Foye but also adding Carter and giving Ish more snaps, and bringing back Neasman to replace Richards. It's just the time it takes to make those calls. 

As for his situational coaching... That's just gonna take experience. I think part of his problem is he relies on his defense getting stops, but forgets he's not calling the plays and results in blind faith in the unit. 

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