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Peyton

538 Statistical Model Gives Falcons 46% Chance of Making Playoffs

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I'd agree with 46% 

To me, it's quite simple:

Play like we did against the Redskins - we make the playoffs.

If we see too many shades of how we played before the last couple of weeks - we won't.

Will the real Falcons team please stand up? They need consistency the rest of the way as they can't afford many mulligans, but with the shots in the arm Deion Jones and Freeman upon his possible return later will be, they will certainly increase our chances if our defense builds on its recent success and our young players continue to get more comfortable and shine.

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If the NFL could be predicted by statisticians, there would be really no point to playing it out.  Watch the eventual NFC division winners and wild card teams be unexpected.

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5 minutes ago, ATL Fan in the DMV said:

I'd agree with 46% 

To me, it's quite simple:

Play like we did against the Redskins - we make the playoffs.

If we see too many shades of how we played before the last couple of weeks - we won't.

Will the real Falcons team please stand up? They need consistency the rest of the way as they can't afford many mulligans, but with the shots in the arm Deion Jones and Freeman upon his possible return later will be, they will certainly increase our chances if our defense builds on its recent success and our young players continue to get more comfortable and shine.

The statistical analysis part of me would probably agree with the 46%.

But seeing as how this team is coming together and with the return of Deion Jones, I really think the chances are better than that.  I think this team is going to make the playoffs.

Emmitt, kschreck, shock and 1 other like this

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4-4

@Browns, Cowboys, Cardinals, and @Bucs, very winnable games 

If we take care of business with those games, we need two of four to get to 10:

@Saints, Ravens, @GB, @Carolina

 

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3 minutes ago, Peyton said:

The statistical analysis part of me would probably agree with the 46%.

But seeing as how this team is coming together and with the return of Deion Jones, I really think the chances are better than that.  I think this team is going to make the playoffs.

I agree.  This team has been in this situation before and is coming together at the right time.

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That early overtime loss to New Orleans REALLY stings - we'd have a good chance at the division if we had picked that one up. 

But looking at the various schedules and looking at how we played last week ... if we can keep that up and avoid further injuries, I'd say our chances at a wildcard are EXCELLENT.

And if we make the playoffs as a wildcard after starting 1-4 and with the absolute boatload of injuries we had, I don't care if we have to go on the road, we will be dangerous.

We'll also be a wildcard team who knows that they can play their way to a home game. How many 5th or 6th seeds can say that? :D

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29 minutes ago, kschreck said:

4-4

@Browns, Cowboys, Cardinals, and @Bucs, very winnable games 

If we take care of business with those games, we need two of four to get to 10:

@Saints, Ravens, @GB, @Carolina

 

@Saints the one that is challenging. The Packers are not that good. The Ravens are faltering and Panthies will not be able to match the Falcons if we play no-huddle and fast pace game.

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2 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

lol wut?

Pretty sure this means the exact opposite of what you intended it to mean...

No. I meant what it means. 

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Football Outsiders still has us at a not-so-great 26% (23% WC/3% Division) but their data tends to be a bit slow on the uptick and the "baseline" assessment of the Falcons at 538's ELO system was higher than the baseline of FO's DVOA early this year. 

In general, the average 4-4 team ends up with ~8 wins. Approximately 30% of 4-4 teams end up making the playoffs 

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Ya know, people keep expecting the Saints to just roll to the division title, but what if they have their run of injuries & bad luck next few weeks? Falcons get on a roll and the Saints slump. division is still possible.

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3 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Ya know, people keep expecting the Saints to just roll to the division title, but what if they have their run of injuries & bad luck next few weeks? Falcons get on a roll and the Saints slump. division is still possible.

Well sure, its still POSSIBLE. I just dont think its close to likely. 

That being said.....they DO have the most difficult remaining schedule of NO/CAR/ATL. And despite where the narrative has settled, we were very much in that game and basically lost a coin flip. So its not like we should just figure NO beats us in their place late this year. 

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5 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

"lol most accurate data journalism source in the country" 

strong take. 

Data journalism and data analysis are entirely different things. I will take a strong analytical firm over journalism. 

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5 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Ya know, people keep expecting the Saints to just roll to the division title, but what if they have their run of injuries & bad luck next few weeks? Falcons get on a roll and the Saints slump. division is still possible.

It's still on the table. Obviously we HAVE to win on Thanksgiving. If that happens, then they need to drop at least two more. Last night's iteration of the Steelers team could probably do it. They have both games still to come with Carolina, who always play them tough. They have fits with the Bucs for some reason.

Honestly, though, I think we dug ourselves too deep a hole. I'm hoping for a wildcard and if by some miracle, the division becomes a real possibility over the second half of the season, icing on the cake.

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1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

Data journalism and data analysis are entirely different things. I will take a strong analytical firm over journalism. 

So what's your hot take? Are they too high or too low?

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5 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Data journalism and data analysis are entirely different things. I will take a strong analytical firm over journalism. 

They're "entirely different things" in the same way that "rhombus" and "square" are "entirely different things. 

And if you're suggesting they come up short on analysis, you're gettin' all sorts of lulz. 

EDIT TO ADD: That doesnt make their word gospel or beyond reproach.....but they certainly have a strong enough track record to be above some weird toss aside.

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1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

They're "entirely different things" in the same way that "rhombus" and "square" are "entirely different things. 

And if you're suggesting they come up short on analysis, you're gettin' all sorts of lulz. 

EDIT TO ADD: That doesnt make their word gospel or beyond reproach.....but they certainly have a strong enough track record to be above some weird toss aside.

May be I should have added more to my post. They are going by probabilities and past history.  The good thing about DFS is now you get all kinds of advanced metrics which analyze match ups. 538 has spotty record for a while now. There are many analysis which go much beyond basic probability and statistics. Predicting games, Player performance is already a big business with uptick in DFS and betting. 

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9 minutes ago, Jesus said:

So what's your hot take? Are they too high or too low?

 

4 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Yeah I am curious to know that too.

I would put around 60-65%. That’s based on expected points scored and Expected points by opponents. Again, no one can see the future, but I did have an early season prediction of falcons going 3-4 in first seven games. I can be wrong, it’s always cat and mouse game in mathematical models.

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9 minutes ago, BCEagleATLFalcon said:

It's still on the table. Obviously we HAVE to win on Thanksgiving. If that happens, then they need to drop at least two more. Last night's iteration of the Steelers team could probably do it. They have both games still to come with Carolina, who always play them tough. They have fits with the Bucs for some reason.

Honestly, though, I think we dug ourselves too deep a hole. I'm hoping for a wildcard and if by some miracle, the division becomes a real possibility over the second half of the season, icing on the cake.

Yeah, it's not very realistic at the moment, but things can change quickly in the NFL.  If the Falcons keeping winning and the Saints drop 1 of their next 2 games, they would be 8-3 while the falcons would be 7-4. One game back with 5 to play would make the last few games much more interesting.

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