2018 SEC Championship - #1 Alabama vs #4 Georgia

[Carter 13,602]

We still have nearly a month to go for this game but with Bama and Georgia already locked in, I figured I’d go ahead and get this one started for any related talk. 

Both teams gonna have to finish the season strong and then hopefully we have us another classic Bama-Georgia game... with the Dawgs coming out on top this time! 

[fibonaccisquared 1,349]

In for the dawgfight...

[UAB_DAWG 859]

The matchup I'm most looking forward to is Baker vs their WRs. If DeAndre can lock down those guys he's gonna lock down a huge payday on draft day. On the other hand they may not need to throw it near Baker with Campbell on the field.

That boy sure is taking his lumps this year but I remember screaming at Baker every other play too.

Also hoping this oline can get healthy and reach their potential. The running game has been approaching championship level the last couple weeks and we're gonna need to shorten the game to hang.

Other than that this defense has 4 weeks to get better at taking angles and closing on the ball or we're in rough shape. I think most of our tackling issues are due to bad angles and over pursuit. Signs of a young team and completely correctable. Just maybe not during the season.

Edited November 6, 2018 by UAB_DAWG

[SacFalcFan 4]

Boom!! Thanks carter.. 

[tl;dr 6,031]

I'm excited for the Jeudy vs. Baker match up. Baker is one of the best CB's in the country and Jeudy might be THE best WR in the country. Alabama's running game is rounding into form too, so I don't know how much they will need to pass. The OL replaced Lester Cotton with Deionte Brown on the line, and they are playing a lot better. 

The Alabama defense is also playing A LOT better right now than they were a month ago. 10, 14, and 0 points allowed in the last 3 (7 against Tennessee were the result of a pick 6). If Georgia's OL plays like they did vs. Florida... yikes. 

The best thing Georgia could expose against the Alabama defense is to use the RB's in the passing game. That's the one area of weakness that could be exposed. 

Looking forward to this game though. We all knew it was coming, but I'm glad it's finally here.

[g-dawg 35,224]

Jeudy is most definitely the best receiver in the country.   I am sure their are more featured receivers but none better.   Jeudy’s moves in open field rival Calvin Ridley but Jeudy maybe more explosive than Ridley.

[slickgadawg 3,062]

Alabama opens up as 13 1/2 point favorites by Vegas.  This means they are unsure right now so they left wiggle room for the spread to drop to 10 1/2 points if Georgia keeps dominating and ballooning to 17 points if Georgia slips or looks inconsistent over the next couple of weeks...

Edited November 6, 2018 by slickgadawg

[slickgadawg 3,062]

 

JEUDY, JEUDY, JEUDY... EVERYTIME THEY SAID THAT NAME AGAINST LSU I THOUGHT ABOUT THAT ANDY GRIFFITH EPISODE....

 

[Carter 13,602]

43 minutes ago, slickgadawg said:

Alabama opens up as 13 1/2 point favorites by Vegas.  This means they are unsure right now so they left wiggle room for the spread to drop to 10 1/2 points if Georgia keeps dominating and ballooning to 17 points if Georgia slips or looks inconsistent over the next couple of weeks...

Lol they just want people to bet. Vegas has been losing their *** lately. Last week was about the worst Vegas sportsbooks has done, they paid out a ton of money. Putting Bama as a double digit favorite is going to draw a whole lot of action. A lot of people are going to jump on both sides of that, whereas a 3-7 point spread is probably just going to draw a ton of money on Bama to cover.

[fibonaccisquared 1,349]

1 hour ago, slickgadawg said:

Alabama opens up as 13 1/2 point favorites by Vegas.  This means they are unsure right now so they left wiggle room for the spread to drop to 10 1/2 points if Georgia keeps dominating and ballooning to 17 points if Georgia slips or looks inconsistent over the next couple of weeks...

Honestly, if we keep it within 2 scores, I think it's a win. This Bama team is possibly the worst matchup we could possibly face:

Their OL > our DL

Their DL = our OL at worst, and that's if we're healthy

Their RB v our LBs - edge Bama

Their LBs v our RB - push, maybe slight edge UGA

Their QB/WR play v our DBs - Edge Bama with exception on Baker... they just won't need to throw it his direction

Our QB/WR play v their DBs - ??? Probably edge Bama

Kicking game - we have the better place kicker, punter maybe a push as neither have a particularly good one.

 

Just looking at it across the board, it's not like last year where I felt like we could point to legitimate edges in some spots. Unless something happens in the next few weeks, I don't envision this being a fun game as a UGA fan to attend/watch. I'll do it, because I'm a glutton for punishment, but we just didn't do what I felt like we needed to this season development wise to be in a good place come SECCG. Would LOVE to be wrong...

[Carter 13,602]

2 minutes ago, fibonaccisquared said:

Honestly, if we keep it within 2 scores, I think it's a win. This Bama team is possibly the worst matchup we could possibly face:

Their OL > our DL

Their DL = our OL at worst, and that's if we're healthy

Their RB v our LBs - edge Bama

Their LBs v our RB - push, maybe slight edge UGA

Their QB/WR play v our DBs - Edge Bama with exception on Baker... they just won't need to throw it his direction

Our QB/WR play v their DBs - ??? Probably edge Bama

Kicking game - we have the better place kicker, punter maybe a push as neither have a particularly good one.

 

Just looking at it across the board, it's not like last year where I felt like we could point to legitimate edges in some spots. Unless something happens in the next few weeks, I don't envision this being a fun game as a UGA fan to attend/watch. I'll do it, because I'm a glutton for punishment, but we just didn't do what I felt like we needed to this season development wise to be in a good place come SECCG. Would LOVE to be wrong...

If this Bama team played this UGA team 10 times they may just win 7 or 8 times... but they play once and December 1st could be a wild one. I think it will be a great game. Dawgs defense is getting better and the offense seems to be finding itself. As long as we don’t end up in goal line situations lol

[fibonaccisquared 1,349]

3 minutes ago, Carter said:

If this Bama team played this UGA team 10 times they may just win 7 or 8 times... but they play once and December 1st could be a wild one. I think it will be a great game. Dawgs defense is getting better and the offense seems to be finding itself. As long as we don’t end up in goal line situations lol

I see what you're doing Carter. You're trying to give me hope... Stop it.  My expectations are my expectations. I'll be pleasantly surprised with anything better than those expectations stated above. 

[UAB_DAWG 859]

6 minutes ago, fibonaccisquared said:

Honestly, if we keep it within 2 scores, I think it's a win. This Bama team is possibly the worst matchup we could possibly face:

Their OL > our DL

Their DL = our OL at worst, and that's if we're healthy

Their RB v our LBs - edge Bama

Their LBs v our RB - push, maybe slight edge UGA

Their QB/WR play v our DBs - Edge Bama with exception on Baker... they just won't need to throw it his direction

Our QB/WR play v their DBs - ??? Probably edge Bama

Kicking game - we have the better place kicker, punter maybe a push as neither have a particularly good one.

 

Just looking at it across the board, it's not like last year where I felt like we could point to legitimate edges in some spots. Unless something happens in the next few weeks, I don't envision this being a fun game as a UGA fan to attend/watch. I'll do it, because I'm a glutton for punishment, but we just didn't do what I felt like we needed to this season development wise to be in a good place come SECCG. Would LOVE to be wrong...

It feels like this team is starting to find itself and four weeks is a long time, but you're right, we need to see a lot of improvement between now and then and I'm not sure we can get there.

Establishing the run game is the key to me. Their offense will score and they'll score fast so if we can dominate the ground game, tire them out and shorten the number of possessions they have, we stand a fighters chance. If we cant put together a few 5-7 minute or longer TD drives, we're probably in trouble.

[fibonaccisquared 1,349]

I'm not really sure where they are getting their math from... but...

http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Georgia&HomeYear=2019&AwayTeam=Alabama&AwayYear=2019&hs=1&pbp=1&hSchedule=0

Quote

The average score is Georgia (2019): 27.0 - Alabama (2019): 26.1, decided by < 5 pts 402 times (23.7%)

 (2019)

» Georgia won 867 times (51.2%)

» Georgia won by >20 pts 245 times (14.5%)

 (2019)

» Alabama won 828 times (48.8%)

» Alabama won by >20 pts 189 times (11.2%)

 

Edit: Decided to run it for LSU/UGA to see what it would have spit out... got the margin and winner right first try... 

FINAL SCORE

	7
(2019)

27
	(2019)

The average score is Georgia (2019): 27.4 - Louisiana State (2019): 17.2, decided by < 5 pts 59 times (18.0%)

Edited November 6, 2018 by fibonaccisquared

[Carter 13,602]

4 minutes ago, fibonaccisquared said:

I'm not really sure where they are getting their math from... but...

http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Georgia&HomeYear=2019&AwayTeam=Alabama&AwayYear=2019&hs=1&pbp=1&hSchedule=0

I ran it a few more times and each time it had Bama winning. 20-13 was the average score on the last one but the other two were pretty similar. 

[Billy Ocean 26,528]

 

13 minutes ago, fibonaccisquared said:

I see what you're doing Carter. You're trying to give me hope... Stop it.  My expectations are my expectations. I'll be pleasantly surprised with anything better than those expectations stated above. 

[UAB_DAWG 859]

9 minutes ago, Carter said:

I ran it a few more times and each time it had Bama winning. 20-13 was the average score on the last one but the other two were pretty similar. 

In the last one I ran we won by 7 but we picked Tua 3 times so not sure how I feel about that on.

Side note, this site could be dangerous. I'm getting way too emotional over reading play by plays from a simulated game. I yelled out loud when Swift broke a 45 yard TD run. This could be a very unproductive 4 weeks for me at work. 

 

[SacFalcFan 4]

I pinned this thread.. this is a playoff semifinal game IMO. 

[slickgadawg 3,062]

2 hours ago, Carter said:

If this Bama team played this UGA team 10 times they may just win 7 or 8 times... but they play once and December 1st could be a wild one. I think it will be a great game. Dawgs defense is getting better and the offense seems to be finding itself. As long as we don’t end up in goal line situations lol

I agree. In fact I think Georgia could win 5 out of 10 if THEY STAY with the running game.  The LSU game proved to me that a team with similar talent as Alabama can beat them. Georgia's offense is waaay better than LSU'S and the defense creates turnovers.  Blitz Tau early and often and they should be in good  shape...

[sirlot 148]

So really dumb conspiracy theory, is Kirby playing the long game with Fields? We see Fields come in and run either a QB draw or read option. While both are effective, is he setting up Bama to be unprepared for some new packages they could possibly run with Fields? Like some PA deep passes, etc.

 

I don't think UGA has to resort to tricks to win, but every little advantage helps. Maybe Kirby thinks he can steal 6 points or more? Ugh...I know it sounds dumb. Just thinking out loud. LOL

[sdogg 7,411]

1 minute ago, sirlot said:

So really dumb conspiracy theory, is Kirby playing the long game with Fields? We see Fields come in and run either a QB draw or read option. While both are effective, is he setting up Bama to be unprepared for some new packages they could possibly run with Fields? Like some PA deep passes, etc.

 

I don't think UGA has to resort to tricks to win, but every little advantage helps. Maybe Kirby thinks he can steal 6 points or more? Ugh...I know it sounds dumb. Just thinking out loud. LOL

I'm certain we will have some special packages. I'm thinking the same with DRob. 

[Wardog357 1,567]

8 minutes ago, sirlot said:

I don't think UGA has to resort to tricks to win, but every little advantage helps. Maybe Kirby thinks he can steal 6 points or more? Ugh...I know it sounds dumb. Just thinking out loud. LOL

I personally believe Kirby and Chaney will have to pull out all the stops, trick plays and anything else to win this game. Can they.....yes.....is the odds in our favor.....not by any stretch. I think this Bama team is better than the one we faced for the natty and we are not as good....not as of right now. The biggest thing hurting us is our injuries on OL and DL. And the D needs to play better to keep Bama at bay. I love the Dawgs for 50+ years......but this is going to take our very best game.

[tl;dr 6,031]

1 hour ago, sirlot said:

So really dumb conspiracy theory, is Kirby playing the long game with Fields? We see Fields come in and run either a QB draw or read option. While both are effective, is he setting up Bama to be unprepared for some new packages they could possibly run with Fields? Like some PA deep passes, etc.

 

I don't think UGA has to resort to tricks to win, but every little advantage helps. Maybe Kirby thinks he can steal 6 points or more? Ugh...I know it sounds dumb. Just thinking out loud. LOL

That's the game to do it in if it happens. I think to win the game, you are going to have to have something like that happen.

Also, don't be shocked if Alabama brings out more of the Tua/Jalen packages assuming Jalen is healthy

[AutumnEffect 563]

I remember when 2005 USC was the best team of all time... Right up until they got got. Sic em!

[SacFalcFan 4]

1 hour ago, AutumnEffect said:

I remember when 2005 USC was the best team of all time... Right up until they got got. Sic em!

this Bama team is not saban's best.. that defense has given up a bunch of explosive plays.. offensively they are his best, but that defense isn't.