Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
fuego

Projecting 2020 roster locks, bubble players for all 32 NFL teams - Bill Barnwell

44 posts in this topic

Projecting what an NFL team is going to look like in two years is hard. Go back to Week 1 of the 2016 season and you'll see what I mean. Drew Brees was throwing to Brandin Cooks and Coby Fleener. The 49ers shut out the Rams and starting quarterback Case Keenum 28-0 in a game in which Blaine Gabbertstarted ahead of Colin Kaepernick. The starting running backs in the Dolphins-Seahawks game were Arian Foster and Christine Michael. Things change quickly.

Recently, I was talking to Lindsay Jones of The Athletic on my podcast, and we started wondering what the 2020 Raiders' roster might look like as Jon Gruden & Co. make their move to Las Vegas. We didn't get very far, and that was before the Amari Cooper trade happened.

I think it's an interesting exercise, though, so I've gone ahead and tried to project which players from each team's 2018 roster are likely to make it onto their roster come Week 1 of 2020. Those rosters will obviously include 2019 and 2020 draft picks, and there are young players who will emerge as meaningful contributors between now and then, so consider this an imperfect look into what each team's long-term core currently looks like, nearly halfway through the 2018 campaign.

I've split each team into three groups. The virtual locks section is for players I think have at least a 90 percent shot of making the 2020 roster, given their contract situation and draft status. In most cases, I would expect 2017 and 2018 draft picks taken in the top three rounds to make it to 2020, which is reflected here.

The on the bubble group is for the players I think have something closer to a 55 percent shot of appearing on the roster in 2020. They might be starring veterans who have onerous contracts in the future, young players who haven't found their role, or placeholders who are likely to be usurped by a draft pick or let go as part of a regime change.

Finally, the unlikely notables section is for players who have no more than a 15 percent shot of making it to 2020 on the same team. This section is for mid-30s veterans who are likely to retire, young players who are riding pine, and regulars whose contracts will be even more difficult to swallow by the 2020 offseason. I've tried to limit this to more notable players, if only to avoid listing every practice-squad member or backup long-snapper and make this column five times as long.

As always, I'm sure a player or two sneaked through the list, but this should be some comparative insight into what each NFL organization has built for the future. Some of the cores surprised me. Let's start with a team in the middle of a massive rebuild and go in alphabetical order:

 

Atlanta Falcons

Virtual locks: QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, T Jake Matthews, DE Takkarist McKinley, S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, CB Isaiah Oliver, DT Deadrin Senat, WR Calvin Ridley

All the agents for Deion Jones and Neal have to do to point out their clients' value is show tape of the 2018 Falcons' defense after they went on injured reserve. Ridley has nearly as many touchdowns in a half-season (six) as the three top-10 wideouts of the 2017 class have over their first year and a half combined (seven).

On the bubble: DE Vic Beasley, C Alex Mack, CB Robert Alford, T Ryan Schraeder, CB Desmond Trufant, S Ricardo Allen, RB Tevin Coleman, DT Grady Jarrett, LB De'Vondre Campbell, RB Ito Smith, CB Brian Poole, TE Austin Hooper, LB Duke Riley

Atlanta's defensive collapse might call its cornerbacks into question, with Alford standing out as a frequently burned problem. The Falcons will have to work out new deals for Jarrett after 2018 and Beasley after 2019; given Beasley's lack of production since leading the league in sacks in 2016, the Falcons should lean toward renewing Jarrett and letting Beasley test the market.

 

Unlikely notables: WR Mohamed Sanu, RB Devonta Freeman, G Andy Levitre, G Brandon Fusco, K Matt Bryant

Freeman has missed time in both 2017 and 2018 since signing a five-year, $41.3 million extension before the 2017 campaign; the Falcons can get out of his deal with $6 million in dead money before 2020 and might be better off using the savings elsewhere.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25133131/projecting-2020-roster-locks-bubble-players-all-32-nfl-teams#atl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the Bubble has me confused. Grady, Colemen, Campbelll, and Hooper are the ones I'm not understanding. I know this is 2020, but still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would call Grady a lock. Besides that I can understand the rest of the logic.

guys like Hooper aren’t locks because their rookie deals will be expiring and there would be a chance they get their deal elsewhere. Not because the team won’t want them. We cannot pay everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 1989Fan said:

Would call Grady a lock. Besides that I can understand the rest of the logic.

guys like Hooper aren’t locks because their rookie deals will be expiring and there would be a chance they get their deal elsewhere. Not because the team won’t want them. We cannot pay everyone.

This logic makes sense - but I just see Hooper coming into his own this year and next.  I think he may just end up staying.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Tandy said:

This logic makes sense - but I just see Hooper coming into his own this year and next.  I think he may just end up staying.

 

I agree and hope he stays. The staff is going to have to figure out who to pay and who to let walk. I still think Hooper would be a good value signing. Hope we make room to keep Grady, Neal, Debo, Campbell and Hooper. The rest can fight for the scraps.

Tandy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Zone#7 said:

On the Bubble has me confused. Grady, Colemen, Campbelll, and Hooper are the ones I'm not understanding. I know this is 2020, but still.

This dude obviously isn't watching.  The whole exercise is kind of stupid.  He's got all those guys on the bubble because they do not have contracts.  A few of these bubble guys probably belong in the "unlikely" category.

Based on what he has shown, Oliver is no lock to see a 3rd year in the NFL.  I do think he'll improve though.

PokerSteve likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

Would call Grady a lock. Besides that I can understand the rest of the logic.

guys like Hooper aren’t locks because their rookie deals will be expiring and there would be a chance they get their deal elsewhere. Not because the team won’t want them. We cannot pay everyone.

Unfortunately the Falcons have let Grady get too close to FA to call him a lock.  They are going to be bidding against the whole league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Unfortunately the Falcons have let Grady get too close to FA to call him a lock.  They are going to be bidding against the whole league.

They could extend him in next few weeks, TD has done few of those oct-dec. They won’t be bidding for him until 2020 if Falcons use the franchise tag. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

They could extend him in next few weeks, TD has done few of those oct-dec. They won’t be bidding for him until 2020 if Falcons use the franchise tag. 

I am sure Grady would be OK with making $15 mil next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mack: He would retire before then.

Julio: Black will keep him. He will honor his word publcly (Tony Gonalez's knees were gone, but he was stil productive because Ryan focus on him. The Tony. G. of The Chiefs was not here.).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, falcons007 said:

Alford has fallen of the cliff. Hopefully he can put it back together. 

actually I think OBJ lead him to the edge, then just as Alford lunged to grab hold of him, he stepped out of the way......the one time Alford DIDN'T manage to grab a WR......  :ninja:

falcons007 and PokerSteve like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Peyton said:

I am sure Grady would be OK with making $15 mil next year.

Yeah, falcons rather use that 15 M towards his guaranteed money. It really depends on how much guaranteed money Grady wants.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, papachaz said:

actually I think OBJ lead him to the edge, then just as Alford lunged to grab hold of him, he stepped out of the way......the one time Alford DIDN'T manage to grab a WR......  :ninja:

Well played. :tiphat:You can replace OBJ with almost every WR from other games..

papachaz and PokerSteve like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do not extend non-Pro Bowl consideration players. (especially at DE, RB, and OLB).

Falcons may be too sentimental as a FO.

They should be in great-shape as far as The Salary Cap by then.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

Yeah, falcons rather use that 15 M towards his guaranteed money. It really depends on how much guaranteed money Grady wants.

I don't know if the Falcons will have the flexibility to tag him or not.  If they don't, they will have to pay what the free market determines.  I'm not at all confident that Grady will be a Falcon in 2019 at this point.  Hope so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, papachaz said:

actually I think OBJ lead him to the edge, then just as Alford lunged to grab hold of him, he stepped out of the way......the one time Alford DIDN'T manage to grab a WR......  :ninja:

Gone anyway. Falcons have to replace the CBs by 2020. I assume that begins in the 1st round now.

They are MIke Smith's CBs.

Quinn took a chance on a tall CB from L.S.U. in his first draft because he was tall and physical. That CB happened to be suspended for PEDs though.

Quinn will get his CBs now.

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Peyton said:

I am sure Grady would be OK with making $15 mil next year.

I would think the tag would be just to hold exclusive negotiation rights w him. I don’t see him hitting UFA in any circumstances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Rise said:

Do not extend non-Pro Bowl consideration players. (especially at DE, RB, and OLB).

Falcons may be too sentimental as a FO.

They should be in great-shape as far as The Salary Cap by then.

 

The salary cap in 2020 should be about 210 million.

Right now, the Falcons have 148 million in contracts for 2020....to only 24 players. Some players that have to be reupped by then include Jarrett, Neal, Jones, Campbell, and Hooper.  They they have to add 25 more guys too.

"Great shape" salary cap wise is a thing of the past for the Falcons, it's always going to be tight.  The good news is that it is because the team has a bunch of very good players.

Falcons In 2012 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

I would think the tag would be just to hold exclusive negotiation rights w him. I don’t see him hitting UFA in any circumstances.

Sure, but if they don't reach a number, they have to pay him the tag number.

Keep in mind they've already been negotiating and have failed to come to an agreement so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Rise said:

Gone anyway. Falcons have to replace the CBs by 2020. I assume that begins in the 1st round now.

They are MIke Smith's CBs.

Quinn took a chance on a tall CB from L.S.U. in his first draft because he was tall and physical. That CB happened to be suspended for PEDs though.

Quinn will get his CBs now.

 

 

 

 

 

zQByh4X.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL @ Grady on the bubble.

 

If we were to **** around and let him walk, It'd be hard for me to not walk away from this team and the NFL.

Edited by RubberDucky

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2019 will be another rebuilding year for the Falcons after all the contract negotiations and cuts we're going to have to make after 2018 and then the 2020 Falcons should be a legit team with veteran players plus surprise new players on our roster we don't know about right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, RubberDucky said:

LOL @ Grady on the bubble.

 

If we were to **** around and let him walk, It'd be hard for me to not walk away from this team and the NFL.

That position of yours carries a lot of downside with not a lot of upside.  

I'm willing to bet you $100 that we keep Grady.  But if we don't, you owe me $1M and never get to gamble again.  How about it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0