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MLB Offseason

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The Kyler Murray situation has brought about debate on MLB's ability to compete for athletes. The grueling life in the minors on little pay and smaller bonuses than other leagues. Scott Boras is taking the lead as a voice but he did bring up a good point. With Murray limited on how much he can make for years why would he turn down the NFL and instant big money. Being the #1 pick in the NFL got Baker Mayfield $22M as a signing bonus and a $32M contract. That's really, really tough to walk away from it you're Kyler Murray.

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4 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

The Kyler Murray situation has brought about debate on MLB's ability to compete for athletes. The grueling life in the minors on little pay and smaller bonuses than other leagues. Scott Boras is taking the lead as a voice but he did bring up a good point. With Murray limited on how much he can make for years why would he turn down the NFL and instant big money. Being the #1 pick in the NFL got Baker Mayfield $22M as a signing bonus and a $32M contract. That's really, really tough to walk away from it you're Kyler Murray.

Yep. MLB is at a major disadvantage here. Minor league players get squat for pay.

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14 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Yep. MLB is at a major disadvantage here. Minor league players get squat for pay.

Yep, AAA players make the most and that's $2,000 a month. They also only get paid during the season. 

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The thing to remember is that people are talking about the #1 overall pick. Lamar Jackson was the last pick of the first round last year. His signing bonus of $4.97 million is similar to what Murray got with Oakland. Tyquan Lewis went #64 overall. His entire four-year contract is less than what Oakland paid Murray in bonus money. 

NFL Network's saying that Murray will go around 60, so that's an important distinction. His play may get him picked earlier, but his height is definitely a reason for him to go later. I'm not buying the narrative that he'll definitely earn more in the NFL, at least not yet. The keys are where he gets drafted in the NFL and whether he could make the majors quickly in baseball. As a two-sport athlete of this level, he'll never hurt for money anyway. He'll get endorsements at a minimum and possibly a lifestyle brand. 

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1 hour ago, jidady said:

The thing to remember is that people are talking about the #1 overall pick. Lamar Jackson was the last pick of the first round last year. His signing bonus of $4.97 million is similar to what Murray got with Oakland. Tyquan Lewis went #64 overall. His entire four-year contract is less than what Oakland paid Murray in bonus money. 

NFL Network's saying that Murray will go around 60, so that's an important distinction. His play may get him picked earlier, but his height is definitely a reason for him to go later. I'm not buying the narrative that he'll definitely earn more in the NFL, at least not yet. The keys are where he gets drafted in the NFL and whether he could make the majors quickly in baseball. As a two-sport athlete of this level, he'll never hurt for money anyway. He'll get endorsements at a minimum and possibly a lifestyle brand. 

I think when people say he'll make more in the NFL they're talking about at the beginning, not for his career.

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39 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I think when people say he'll make more in the NFL they're talking about at the beginning, not for his career.

Right, and that's why I'm saying that it's not a foregone conclusion. He has until after the combine to decide. If he's going to be a third-round pick or later, he'll actually make more in baseball, even allowing for time spent in the majors and the early part of his arbitration clock. NFL teams literally couldn't give him a raise, even if they wanted to do it a la Dak Prescott. Dak's only getting $2.7 million for his first four years.

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46 minutes ago, jidady said:

Right, and that's why I'm saying that it's not a foregone conclusion. He has until after the combine to decide. If he's going to be a third-round pick or later, he'll actually make more in baseball, even allowing for time spent in the majors and the early part of his arbitration clock. NFL teams literally couldn't give him a raise, even if they wanted to do it a la Dak Prescott. Dak's only getting $2.7 million for his first four years.

Well I don't see him being a 3rd round pick or he would stick with baseball. But when everything has aligned for him to be the #1 overall pick and make more money up front before taking a single snap than he would in his first 3-5 years in baseball (depending on how long it takes him to get to the majors) then it's the easy choice to pick the NFL. Then if it doesn't work out he's always got baseball to fall back on. You've got to factor in just how weak this QB class is. It's the weakest QB draft I can ever remember in my lifetime. Justin Herbert was the clear cut #1 rated guy and he decided to stay at Oregon for his Senior season.

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26 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Well I don't see him being a 3rd round pick or he would stick with baseball. But when everything has aligned for him to be the #1 overall pick and make more money up front before taking a single snap than he would in his first 3-5 years in baseball (depending on how long it takes him to get to the majors) then it's the easy choice to pick the NFL. Then if it doesn't work out he's always got baseball to fall back on. You've got to factor in just how weak this QB class is. It's the weakest QB draft I can ever remember in my lifetime. Justin Herbert was the clear cut #1 rated guy and he decided to stay at Oregon for his Senior season.

Haskins will wind up ahead way ahead of him since he has the measurables in addition to the performance. I'm one of those people who think the NFL's obsession with QB height is maddening, but it's still a real thing. Russell Wilson was a four-year starter in college, and his size kept him from getting drafted ahead of a punter.And Murray is just under 5'10" according to Oklahoma. To a larger point, I sincerely doubt that Arizona will take Murray at #1 or even at #33 since they hired a head coach specifically to groom Rosen.

None of that is really what I'm saying is the problem with this discussion, though. Everyone keeps stating emphatically that Murray will lose a lot of money by picking the NFL over MLB. In truth, the answer is that it depends on a lot of factors. If he doesn't go top 60, he's made a huuuuuge mistake.  He'll be locked into an NFL contract that has absolutely no wiggle room until after year three. The idea that he'll make a lot more in the NFL is flawed in that it assumes a certain draft position for him, one that's far from determined right now. He basically needs the NFL equivalent of an NBA draft promise to know that he's making the right choice.

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28 minutes ago, jidady said:

Haskins will wind up ahead way ahead of him since he has the measurables in addition to the performance. I'm one of those people who think the NFL's obsession with QB height is maddening, but it's still a real thing. Russell Wilson was a four-year starter in college, and his size kept him from getting drafted ahead of a punter.And Murray is just under 5'10" according to Oklahoma. To a larger point, I sincerely doubt that Arizona will take Murray at #1 or even at #33 since they hired a head coach specifically to groom Rosen.

None of that is really what I'm saying is the problem with this discussion, though. Everyone keeps stating emphatically that Murray will lose a lot of money by picking the NFL over MLB. In truth, the answer is that it depends on a lot of factors. If he doesn't go top 60, he's made a huuuuuge mistake.  He'll be locked into an NFL contract that has absolutely no wiggle room until after year three. The idea that he'll make a lot more in the NFL is flawed in that it assumes a certain draft position for him, one that's far from determined right now. He basically needs the NFL equivalent of an NBA draft promise to know that he's making the right choice.

The thing with Russell Wilson was that he never put up major college numbers like Murray, which in addition to his height, is the reason he wasn't drafted until the 3rd round. Murray can point to Wilson's success in the NFL and tell teams "hey, I can do that!!." I've done mentioned the reason I believe Kingsbury was hired and why Murray is declaring for the draft so there's no need to rehash that again. I don't think Murray would have declared for the draft if teams hadn't told him that he would be a top pick. It makes no sense for him to pass up baseball to be a 3rd round NFL pick. The only way this makes any sense is if he's been told by NFL teams that he's going to be a top pick. I know that you're aware that all NFL draft eligible players send off to get their projected draft stock results and a large number of them make the decision to stay for their Senior year based on what the NFL teams tell them.

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23 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

White Sox reportedly offered Machado 8 years $240M.

These type contracts are the kiss of death for teams. They just don't work. We could produce a long list but everyone ows already

 

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30 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

These type contracts are the kiss of death for teams. They just don't work. We could produce a long list but everyone ows already

The reason is because the players are usually on the wrong side of 30. Guys the age of Harper and Machado just don't reach free agency. Check out the list of highest contracts in MLB history and look at the age of the player when signed, it was doomed from the beginning.

  1. Alex Rodriguez - 10 Years, $275M (2008-2017) - Yankees - Age 32-41 Seasons
  2. Alex Rodriguez - 10 Years, $252M (2001-2010) - Rangers - Age 25-34 Seasons (Opted out after the 2007 season). Ended up producing 56.4 WAR during the contract. He did his part, Rangers just didn't ever have the pitching, same issue they've had long before A-Rod and long after A-Rod.
  3. Albert Pujols - 10 Years, $240M (2012-2021) - Angels - Age 32-41 Seasons
  4. Robinson Cano - 10 Years, $240M (2014-2023 - Mariners - Age 31-40 Seasons
  5. David Price - 7 Years, $217M (2016-2022) - Red Sox - Age 30-36 Seasons
  6. Prince Fielder - 9 Years, $214M (2012-2020) - Tigers - Age 28-36 Seasons (Little unfair to be critical of him since the unforeseen neck injury ended his career early. Now you're probably saying that with his size it was inevitable that he would break down but that's not fair to him either. He was never hurt. From 2006-2013 Fielder appeared in 1283 of a possible 1296 games. Missing only 13 games in 8 years is remarkable, I don't care what position it is.)

I could keep going, but the point I'm trying to make is that giving Harper or Machado that kind of money at their current age is a lot more manageable than doing it to a guy on the wrong side of 30, especially pitchers.

One last special note on the White Sox, their owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 82 years ago, about to turn 83. He wants another World Series win before he bites the dust. Reinsdorf has been one of the more frugal owners in the sport usually keeping spending modest and not going overboard in free agency, except for that one time they signed Albert Belle. So this is uncharted territory for him but it shows how desperate he is.

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2 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

The reason is because the players are usually on the wrong side of 30. Guys the age of Harper and Machado just don't reach free agency. Check out the list of highest contracts in MLB history and look at the age of the player when signed, it was doomed from the beginning.

  1. Alex Rodriguez - 10 Years, $275M (2008-2017) - Yankees - Age 32-41 Seasons
  2. Alex Rodriguez - 10 Years, $252M (2001-2010) - Rangers - Age 25-34 Seasons (Opted out after the 2007 season). Ended up producing 56.4 WAR during the contract. He did his part, Rangers just didn't ever have the pitching, same issue they've had long before A-Rod and long after A-Rod.
  3. Albert Pujols - 10 Years, $240M (2012-2021) - Angels - Age 32-41 Seasons
  4. Robinson Cano - 10 Years, $240M (2014-2023 - Mariners - Age 31-40 Seasons
  5. David Price - 7 Years, $217M (2016-2022) - Red Sox - Age 30-36 Seasons
  6. Prince Fielder - 9 Years, $214M (2012-2020) - Tigers - Age 28-36 Seasons (Little unfair to be critical of him since the unforeseen neck injury ended his career early. Now you're probably saying that with his size it was inevitable that he would break down but that's not fair to him either. He was never hurt. From 2006-2013 Fielder appeared in 1283 of a possible 1296 games. Missing only 13 games in 8 years is remarkable, I don't care what position it is.)

I could keep going, but the point I'm trying to make is that giving Harper or Machado that kind of money at their current age is a lot more manageable than doing it to a guy on the wrong side of 30, especially pitchers.

One last special note on the White Sox, their owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 82 years ago, about to turn 83. He wants another World Series win before he bites the dust. Reinsdorf has been one of the more frugal owners in the sport usually keeping spending modest and not going overboard in free agency, except for that one time they signed Albert Belle. So this is uncharted territory for him but it shows how desperate he is.

Good stuff but I need definitive proof (even though younger) we just haven't seen it.

The added pressure to perform I think is a huge factor. These guys are younger so there is a chance it might work, but it also effects the payroll around that player.

For the record, I wouldn't even consider Harper for a long-term contract. He is highly overrated IMHO.

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Seems like a lot of Phillies fans seem convinced they are getting Machado AND Harper... I'll believe it when I see it lol

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27 minutes ago, tl;dr said:

Seems like a lot of Phillies fans seem convinced they are getting Machado AND Harper... I'll believe it when I see it lol

They now reportedly want Machado, Harper and Keuchel. Ownership/FO actually thinks they can pull it off.

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40 minutes ago, Unkn0wn said:

They now reportedly want Machado, Harper and Keuchel. Ownership/FO actually thinks they can pull it off.

Bleh, I hope not

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Phillies also plan to go after Mike Trout in 2 years. They want those three now and then add Trout to it. The Angels are trying to extend him but hes reportedly unlikely to agree.

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Reports out of Philly that the team does not plan on signing both. The report says they indicated to both it was one or the other. They prefer Machado.

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2 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

Reports out of Philly that the team does not plan on signing both. The report says they indicated to both it was one or the other. They prefer Machado.

I would think Harper would be the more likely one. I also saw they may be interested in Kimbrel. Couldn't stand to see Kimbrel in Philly...

I really just want to see them strike on most of their targets. They targeted Corbin right? 

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5 minutes ago, tl;dr said:

I would think Harper would be the more likely one. I also saw they may be interested in Kimbrel. Couldn't stand to see Kimbrel in Philly...

I really just want to see them strike on most of their targets. They targeted Corbin right? 

Yes, he visited Philly.

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So, Machado's real offer from Chicago is 7 years $175M. The team reportedly feels that's good enough and nobody else has offered Machado anything better. They're comparing to JD Martinez last year.

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2 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

So, Machado's real offer from Chicago is 7 years $175M. The team reportedly feels that's good enough and nobody else has offered Machado anything better. They're comparing to JD Martinez last year.

Machado's agent is quite forcibly pushing back against this report. Other reporters are also chiming in that the White Sox offer is higher than the $175M.
 

 

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2 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

First the 8 year was debunked, then the $240M and now the $175M. Who knows what is happening 

The only truth we know for sure is that the White Sox are desperate for Manny Machado.

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