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Has our window slammed shut?


AKFalcon72
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7 hours ago, FalconJim said:


Yeah, mine's ticking, too!!!  And what about poor 'ol Artie --- I'm sure he feels the same way. 
I mean, look at all the time & money he's spent with this team, and no Lombardi, yet. 
Really, I want it more for him and Matt Ryan than I do for myself ---   


 

Poor ol Artie? The Falcons are worth 5 more times what he paid for them. He could really  care less about a trophy...

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We can sneak into playoffs at 10-6.

Debo will be back. Takk will be back. Shelby will be back

Only Rico and Neal are done. Both huge losses. But Kazee looks like a stud.

So IF we get healthy, our only major weakness is losing Neal. 

Offense is all on Sark. TeCo and Ito can cover if Free still sidelined. Wes replaces Levitre just fine. 

We can still win it all this year. But we need to get healthy in a hurry and stay that way. 

Edited by NeonDeion
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5 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

We can sneak into playoffs at 10-6.

Debo will be back. Takk will be back. Shelby will be back

Only Rico and Neal are done. Both huge losses. But Kazee looks like a stud.

So IF we get healthy, our only major weakness is losing Neal. 

Offense is all on Sark. TeCo and Ito can cover if Free still sidelined. Wes replaces Levitre just fine. 

We can still win it all this year. But we need to get healthy in a hurry and stay that way. 

I don't know if that record will be enough in our deeply loaded division combined with the rest of the NFC, but we'll see. I don't see 3 teams from the NFC South making the playoffs like last season, it's rare for any division to have 3 teams make the playoffs at the same time, before us the 2014 AFC North did that. 

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1 hour ago, mqg96 said:

I don't know if that record will be enough in our deeply loaded division combined with the rest of the NFC, but we'll see. I don't see 3 teams from the NFC South making the playoffs like last season, it's rare for any division to have 3 teams make the playoffs at the same time, before us the 2014 AFC North did that. 

Bucs will falter and Panthers have problems. Saints probably win the division and we can def grab a wild card.

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59 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

 

You two done tickling each other with nonsense? Or do you want to take it off the board so you're not actively dragging down the overall posting quality of the forum? 

Dude, did you understand why I was replying to that guy? I was being sarcastic because of all the doubts a lot of Falcons had between 2013 and 2015 when we thought our window had closed after our really good 2012 team, and then we ended up coming out of no where in 2016 onto the Super Bowl, which made me realize that as long as Matt Ryan is our QB our window will always be open. I agreed with you earlier in this thread and you didn't respond, please stop expecting the negative from me all the time. 

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20 minutes ago, mqg96 said:

Dude, did you understand why I was replying to that guy? I was being sarcastic because of all the doubts a lot of Falcons had between 2013 and 2015 when we thought our window had closed after our really good 2012 team, and then we ended up coming out of no where in 2016 onto the Super Bowl, which made me realize that as long as Matt Ryan is our QB our window will always be open. I agreed with you earlier in this thread and you didn't respond, please stop expecting the negative from me all the time. 

I guess I didnt appreciate the context. My apologies. That was uncool of me. 

This place just gets so negative sometimes its easy to be quick to snap. I'm sorry. 

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2 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

Bucs will falter and Panthers have problems. Saints probably win the division and we can def grab a wild card.

One team in this division (Panthers) isn't allowing points, but they are not scoring much themselves. The other three (Falcons, Saints, Bucs) can put up points w/ ease, but are also giving up almost as much as they score. So nobody looks like a lock at this point.

With that terrible defense, the Saints are mega-screwed if anything happens to either Kamara or Thomas & one of them has to miss any time. Same thing should they have any o-line issues.

I agree that Fitz magic is just an illusion & they will likely fall back to Earth sooner than later. I feel like they end up on a similar path to that of the 2014 Falcons... put up big points in a few games early on to get everyone excited about their potential, but ultimately end up as a major disappointment... largely because of Smitty's pizz-poor D.

The Panthers are mega-screwed if they lose anyone else on that o-line where they are already paper thin. Cam is a mess once people start hitting him a bit, so if teams are able to get to him regularly he'll crumble. McCaffrey seems too small to hold up over a full season with a larger workload, and Funchess is a #2 WR pretending to be a #1. DJ Moore may eventually be that guy for Carolina, but outside of the 50+ yard TD he got against our depleted defense, he has only had one other reception so far this season & that was for just 3 yards... so 2 catches in 3 games thus far.

Obviously we have major issues already on defense, and arguably are also very thin on o-line. Outside of Bryant, our ST play is a joke.

Basically, it's still way too early to have any real idea of how the division is gonna shake out... but for right now, despite all the injuries, we are still very much in the hunt.

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19 minutes ago, MAD597 said:

Yes, if you can't win up 28-3 in the 3rd qtr you are never going to win it.

Matt Ryan could never win a playoff game once. Matt Ryan could never win the NFC and get to the Super Bowl once after our 49ers loss. Now it's Matt Ryan can never win the Super Bowl after blowing a 25 point lead. It probably won't be this year because of our injury bug, but wait until the 2020 season comes if we're coming off a really bad season in 2019 or something. 

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52 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I guess I didnt appreciate the context. My apologies. That was uncool of me. 

This place just gets so negative sometimes its easy to be quick to snap. I'm sorry. 

I agree that it gets negative.  Remember though, some of us have been fans since the 1960s, some since the 1970s and so on. It gets frustrating.  Do you know how MANY TIMES I've seen this franchise rebuild from the ground up or at least halfway? It gets to the point to where some of us don't care WHO the Falcons sign.  

One more thing, after the Falcons lost that Superbowl 28-3 it AFFECTED the players. It had to.  Last season they weren't as focused as they were coming into this season.  Now that the injuries have hit, the chance to get back to the Superbowl has been extended to 3, possibly 4 seasons POST their Superbowl appearance against the Patriots.  When we lost in 1998, the feeling was we would be right back in 1999. Didn't happen until 2016.  Nothing is guaranteed so yes, we can see that window closing again...

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12 minutes ago, slickgadawg said:

I agree that it gets negative.  Remember though, some of us have been fans since the 1960s, some since the 1970s and so on. It gets frustrating.  Do you know how MANY TIMES I've seen this franchise rebuild from the ground up or at least halfway? It gets to the point to where some of us don't care WHO the Falcons sign.  

One more thing, after the Falcons lost that Superbowl 28-3 it AFFECTED the players. It had to.  Last season they weren't as focused as they were coming into this season.  Now that the injuries have hit, the chance to get back to the Superbowl has been extended to 3, possibly 4 seasons POST their Superbowl appearance against the Patriots.  When we lost in 1998, the feeling was we would be right back in 1999. Didn't happen until 2016.  Nothing is guaranteed so yes, we can see that window closing again...

I can't disagree with you here. This applies to many other NFL franchises too and not just us. Unless you're on a dynasty like the Patriots, the Cowboys of back then, or the 49ers or back then. It's EXTREMELY RARE to get back to the Super Bowl with over half of the same players on your roster from the previous Super Bowl team. Even when you compare the 2012 Falcons to the 2016 Falcons, 2 of Matt Ryan's best teams who came close to winning the Super Bowl (but at the end of the day the 2012 team still didn't make it), outside of our special teams, for the offensive and defensive side of the ball, only Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Johnathan Babineaux made it to the 2016 team from what I remember. 

 

The 2004 Eagles and 2017 Eagles were 13 years apart. The 2003 Panthers and 2015 Panthers were 12 years apart. The 2005 Seahawks and 2013 Seahawks were 8 years apart. The Rams window is finally opening back up, but look how long their drought had been since the Kurt Warner era ended,.and so forth with other franchises. 

 

In college football it's easier for programs to get back to the national championship (let alone the CFP itself) a couple years after they were in it whether they won or lost, because of recruiting class cycles based on success and coaching and the margin of error is much bigger between good teams and bad teams at the college level. Georgia and Kirby Smart will most likely get back in the national championship sooner than the Falcons get back to the Super Bowl, it's just the way it usually goes. In the NFL it's any given Sunday with smaller margin of error, then you have the scheduling that affects how your season goes and how the playoff seeding goes by the time the postseason comes around, and then you have your own division or teams from your own conference (NFC or AFC) that could get tougher and now you become the targeted team on everyone's back.

 

When it comes to how you got to the Super Bowl in the regular season with all the little things that had to happen, you must take advantage of your window while it's there. I predict for the Falcons to have another shot of the Super Bowl in 2020 with Matt Ryan, but if not that year, then I believe it won't be until 2028 with a completely different coaching staff, personnel, and quarterback. I know before the Falcons win the Super Bowl, we're going to have to go through one more bad year, I don't know if that bad year is this year, but we're going to have to suffer again, and a lot of franchises who win their first Super Bowl had a losing record or were barely .500 the previous year, and their Super Bowl season came out of no where and they surprised everybody. Heck, the 1997 Falcons and 2015 Falcons were 7-9 and 8-8 before going to the Super Bowl the following year. 

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18 minutes ago, mqg96 said:

I can't disagree with you here. This applies to many other NFL franchises too and not just us. Unless you're on a dynasty like the Patriots, the Cowboys of back then, or the 49ers or back then. It's EXTREMELY RARE to get back to the Super Bowl with over half of the same players on your roster from the previous Super Bowl team. Even when you compare the 2012 Falcons to the 2016 Falcons, 2 of Matt Ryan's best teams who came close to winning the Super Bowl (but at the end of the day the 2012 team still didn't make it), outside of our special teams, for the offensive and defensive side of the ball, only Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Johnathan Babineaux made it to the 2016 team from what I remember. 

 

The 2004 Eagles and 2017 Eagles were 13 years apart. The 2003 Panthers and 2015 Panthers were 12 years apart. The 2005 Seahawks and 2013 Seahawks were 8 years apart. The Rams window is finally opening back up, but look how long their drought had been since the Kurt Warner era ended,.and so forth with other franchises. 

 

In college football it's easier for programs to get back to the national championship (let alone the CFP itself) a couple years after they were in it whether they won or lost, because of recruiting class cycles based on success and coaching and the margin of error is much bigger between good teams and bad teams at the college level. Georgia and Kirby Smart will most likely get back in the national championship sooner than the Falcons get back to the Super Bowl, it's just the way it usually goes. In the NFL it's any given Sunday with smaller margin of error, then you have the scheduling that affects how your season goes and how the playoff seeding goes by the time the postseason comes around, and then you have your own division or teams from your own conference (NFC or AFC) that could get tougher and now you become the targeted team on everyone's back.

 

When it comes to how you got to the Super Bowl in the regular season with all the little things that had to happen, you must take advantage of your window while it's there. I predict for the Falcons to have another shot of the Super Bowl in 2020 with Matt Ryan, but if not that year, then I believe it won't be until 2028 with a completely different coaching staff, personnel, and quarterback. I know before the Falcons win the Super Bowl, we're going to have to go through one more bad year, I don't know if that bad year is this year, but we're going to have to suffer again, and a lot of franchises who win their first Super Bowl had a losing record or were barely .500 the previous year, and their Super Bowl season came out of no where and they surprised everybody. Heck, the 1997 Falcons and 2015 Falcons were 7-9 and 8-8 before going to the Super Bowl the following year. 

Yes, a LOT has to go right.  In addition to what you said:  The owner has to want to win. Then he has to hire the correct front office.  Then the correct head coach is hired. Then the correct players.  Then they have to pan out. Then they have to stay injury free.  Then they have to execute.  Then they have to get lucky here and there.  THEN, the NFL has to wanna back you. ( storylines they push), lol...

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29 minutes ago, mqg96 said:

. In college football it's easier for programs to get back to the national championship (let alone the CFP itself) a couple years after they were in it whether they won or lost, because of recruiting class cycles based on success and coaching and the margin of error is much bigger between good teams and bad teams at the college level. Georgia and Kirby Smart will most likely get back in the national championship sooner than the Falcons get back to the Super Bowl, it's just the way it usually goes. In the NFL it's any given Sunday with smaller margin of error, then you have the scheduling that affects how your season goes and how the playoff seeding goes by the time the postseason comes around, and then you have your own division or teams from your own conference (NFC or AFC) that could get tougher and now you become the targeted team on everyone's back.

One more thing. Thats a excellent example you used about college football. The margin of error IS larger.  Then, another thing you pointed out.  They are CONSTANTLY recruiting. This means that they have built in systems like you said to constantly replace players and maintain the same level of play. Its just impossible to do that in the NFL...

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10 hours ago, k-train said:

One team in this division (Panthers) isn't allowing points, but they are not scoring much themselves. The other three (Falcons, Saints, Bucs) can put up points w/ ease, but are also giving up almost as much as they score. So nobody looks like a lock at this point.

With that terrible defense, the Saints are mega-screwed if anything happens to either Kamara or Thomas & one of them has to miss any time. Same thing should they have any o-line issues.

I agree that Fitz magic is just an illusion & they will likely fall back to Earth sooner than later. I feel like they end up on a similar path to that of the 2014 Falcons... put up big points in a few games early on to get everyone excited about their potential, but ultimately end up as a major disappointment... largely because of Smitty's pizz-poor D.

The Panthers are mega-screwed if they lose anyone else on that o-line where they are already paper thin. Cam is a mess once people start hitting him a bit, so if teams are able to get to him regularly he'll crumble. McCaffrey seems too small to hold up over a full season with a larger workload, and Funchess is a #2 WR pretending to be a #1. DJ Moore may eventually be that guy for Carolina, but outside of the 50+ yard TD he got against our depleted defense, he has only had one other reception so far this season & that was for just 3 yards... so 2 catches in 3 games thus far.

Obviously we have major issues already on defense, and arguably are also very thin on o-line. Outside of Bryant, our ST play is a joke.

Basically, it's still way too early to have any real idea of how the division is gonna shake out... but for right now, despite all the injuries, we are still very much in the hunt.

Thanks for pretty much making my point. Only 2 things that matter imo for us - 1) have to get healthy - can’t afford any more loss 2) Sark has to keep this up. Hopefully it’s not a mirage like Fitzmagic 

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