JD dirtybird21

Matt Ryan: Perception vs Reality

128 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, PokerSteve said:

I found the video you're talking about, only it didn't debunk the fingertip catch theory, it validated it. I don't know what you were watching, but I only saw about two or three passes where Tony G. had an easy catch.

I'm not saying that almost every throw to him wasn't on target, my point was if it hadn't been Tony G. on the other end of those tough passes, a bunch of those would not have been caught by another receiver. So I think you believe I'm saying Matt was just wildly off target, and that's not what I was saying.

But after looking at that video, I'm stunned at how inept and lost Matt Ryan looked in the game Thursday night compared to how he looked in that highlight video. I don't know if it's the twins, the lack of playing time in preseason anymore for the starters or what.

Maybe the loss of Shanahan with the double-whammy of  having to go from an extraordinarily gifted OC to one who is extraordinarily clueless and literally out of his league. That would be a hard adjustment for any QB. Right now Ryan is barely a shell of the QB of the Tony G. years, much less 2016.

Dan Quinn has a way bigger priority than figuring out why this team is allergic to the Red Zone. He's got to figure out how to resurrect the old Mattie Ice with nothing to work with but the new Matty Melt.

Yeah - Ryan had that fire in him in 2016.  You could see the determination every time he took the field.   When plays broke down - he took the chance to make it happen anyway.     Last year - I thought it was the frustration of receiver drops and tips, a new OC who was finding his way - and a wife who was struggling with a tough pregnancy of his twins.    

I'm going to wait and see what happens over the next few games before I make a judgment call on his fire this year.   He looked flat Thursday night - but so did nearly the whole offense (Julio excepted)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Tandy said:

Yeah - Ryan had that fire in him in 2016.  You could see the determination every time he took the field.   When plays broke down - he took the chance to make it happen anyway.     Last year - I thought it was the frustration of receiver drops and tips, a new OC who was finding his way - and a wife who was struggling with a tough pregnancy of his twins.    

I'm going to wait and see what happens over the next few games before I make a judgment call on his fire this year.   He looked flat Thursday night - but so did nearly the whole offense (Julio excepted)

What do you think about Sark? Honestly? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, falcons007 said:

You must be new here, after 2016 loss to Tampa, TATF was talking about drafting Deshaun Watson or signing some no name QB.

I am interested in seeing how Aaron Rodgers and other QB fared in Game winning drives with FG and TD needed. Taking numbers in vacuum is flawed analysis. 

Not sure if serious... def. not new around here.  I also don’t get your post.  The comment about TATF wanting to draft Watson or some other QB just makes my point.  Matt gets blamed more than anyone on this team not named Sark.  It’s just the way it is when you’re the QB and a highly paid one at that so I get it but doesn’t mean I have to agree with it.

I rewatched the first half earlier today.  So far I’m seeing a decent game from Matt with poor play calling in the red zone and a bad no call on Hooper.  If he had another 2 seconds he might have hit Julio on the slant in the endzone but he was freaking mauled.  Wanna watch the 2nd half again... I got a little too lit with the game delay and all lol.

Ergo Proxy and falcons007 like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sitting hear watching Ryan Fitzpatrick throw a perfect ball in the front corner of the endzone to Chris Godwin in the red zone.... Fitzpatrick to who???  We have all these weapons in ATL and can't use them. O-line was horrible late. Play calling is a Greek tragedy and QB play was sub-par. Top it all off with a team unprepared to play, they thought it would be great to take the entire preseason off. 

If each one of these things don't change, we will be disappointed with the end result of the season. 

Matt will not be headed to the Hall of Fame and we will be regretting his deal. I have always supported Matt, but I'm honest. I can sit here and say if Beasley doesn't have more than 5 sacks a year this year and next, he will be gone. How can a QB from one year to the next (2016 to 2017) have his TDs drop by 47% and his INTs go up by 71% and get PAID and locked up for years? You are the trigger man, play the position that is the most valued, you have to put up. You have to be the best player on the field. 

 

Byrdman242424 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, CraigSmackDaddy said:

Not sure if serious... def. not new around here.  I also don’t get your post.  The comment about TATF wanting to draft Watson or some other QB just makes my point.  Matt gets blamed more than anyone on this team not named Sark.  It’s just the way it is when you’re the QB and a highly paid one at that so I get it but doesn’t mean I have to agree with it.

I rewatched the first half earlier today.  So far I’m seeing a decent game from Matt with poor play calling in the red zone and a bad no call on Hooper.  If he had another 2 seconds he might have hit Julio on the slant in the endzone but he was freaking mauled.  Wanna watch the 2nd half again... I got a little too lit with the game delay and all lol.

I don’t disagree with you. I am still waiting on what Aaron Rodgers and other QB did with game winning drives. That whole game was crapshoot and Ryan wasn’t good but after watching Buccs tear up man coverage of saints today. Falcons WR are over rated with sloppy routes and drops. Fitzpattrick is looking like a pro bowler with WR/TE catching high low, left right what ever is thrown around. Falcons struggle against Man to man with WR not beating their man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, ⚡Slumerican⚡ said:

What do you think about Sark? Honestly? 

I'm trying to reserve my judgment until after this season.    I realize that he was put in a strange position - asked to learn another coordinators playbook instead of bringing his own.    This, while trying to learn the personnel and what works for them.

I think 2016 just wowed me so much.   I hate to judge Sark with that so fresh in my mind.

I've been very under-impressed with the ability to get us into the end zone.    Just not sure where the true problem is - Sark, the O-Line, lack of power running or just under-performance by our QB and Receivers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In light of Aaron Rodgers leading the comeback last night, I got to wondering - what is the largest deficit that the Falcons have overcome and won in the Matt Ryan era? Anyone know? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ChiefGSU275 said:

In light of Aaron Rodgers leading the comeback last night, I got to wondering - what is the largest deficit that the Falcons have overcome and won in the Matt Ryan era? Anyone know? 

This is not official - because I'm not sure if that is tracked where we can find it - but I do remember being behind Carolina by 16 points and winning.  2011 or 2012

 

Thanks to SlickOne - the Dallas game in 2015 - we were behind 21 points.

Ergo Proxy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Tandy said:

This is not official - because I'm not sure if that is tracked where we can find it - but I do remember being behind Carolina by 16 points and winning.  2011 or 2012

Right, Dec_11_2011 the falcons rallied after being down 16 at halftime. But I'm also not sure that is the largest deficit

Ergo Proxy, HASHBROWN3 and Tandy like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add to this discussion:

- Falcons have the highest paid offensive line in the NFL;

- Falcons have the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL; and

- Falcons scored 12 points.

Obviously that production does not align with the money spent.  It's too early to judge, but I do think we might show why spending top dollar to retain "good" players is not always a great strategy.  If you are spending $30M on a QB, the guy needs to be throwing accurate lasers all over the field while not using his injured leg.  Most QBs can't do that, but there are many Fitzpatrick level guys out there that you can win with.  Same thing with the OL -- guys being paid to 5 in their position can't be rammed back into the QB every other play, I don't care which team you're playing against...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most, not all Ryan deep passes are thrown to a spot. It's like at the combine where the receiver runs down field, locate the ball and then go retrieve it. Nothing wrong with that because receivers train that way.

Some QBs are able to judge the speed and distance of a receiver and hit him in stride on a deep ball. That's a gift that not all QBs have.

If I were paying a QB $30 mil a year, I would probably want the second one.

Tandy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think people believe other QBs convert at a higher percentage than they do.  It's not a very high percentage deal.

 

From 2013.  I don't have the more recent data, but this was when Peyton and Brady had played for 10 years.  It gives you a good idea:  (here's the link:  https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/quarterbacks-game-winning-drive-study)

Matt Ryan

Ryan has the best record (23-14) in NFL history at GWD opportunities. He has the most fourth-quarter comebacks (16) and GWDs (23) in the first five years of a player's career. He has another record with five one-minute drills to win games. At some point, the "Matty Ice" stuff begins to make sense. Ryan's had the second-worst starting field position among these quarterbacks, but still ranks top 10 in yards and points per drive.

I harp on his one-minute drills all the time, but he has seven GWDs that started in the final two minutes. That ties Peyton Manning for the most here. Keep in mind Manning has 49 total GWDs compared to 23 for Ryan. Is it any wonder he's No. 2 in WP? Ryan has the two GWDs with the lowest WP. That's 0.07 against 2008 Chicago when he had six seconds to make this 26-yard throw and set up a field goal. Then there's the 0.08 against Carolina last year when he started at his own one-yard line with 0:59 left. Overall, Ryan has four of the eight lowest WP's in this study. His drive to beat Seattle in the playoffs ranks No. 5 in WP out of the 416. It's time to give this guy his credit.

HASHBROWN3, Ergo Proxy and Vandy like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, DogIsYourName said:

Just to add to this discussion:

- Falcons have the highest paid offensive line in the NFL;

- Falcons have the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL; and

- Falcons scored 12 points.

Obviously that production does not align with the money spent.  It's too early to judge, but I do think we might show why spending top dollar to retain "good" players is not always a great strategy.  If you are spending $30M on a QB, the guy needs to be throwing accurate lasers all over the field while not using his injured leg.  Most QBs can't do that, but there are many Fitzpatrick level guys out there that you can win with.  Same thing with the OL -- guys being paid to 5 in their position can't be rammed back into the QB every other play, I don't care which team you're playing against...

 

 

Too early to judge, yet you devote your post to doing exactly that. 

See 2016.

HASHBROWN3 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To add another one

https://imgur.com/hjRTtUn

Again shows Ryan has one of the highest percentages of any QB on 4th quarter comebacks (higher than Brees, Roethslisberger, Stafford, Rogers.)

I do think Ryan isn't quite as good at this as he was earlier, and isn't quite as good when TDs are needed (though that first article points to me maybe being wrong about that.)

I think that largely because we don't have a dependable threat over the middle.  In the compressed red zone space, you need guys who can catch contested throws.  That's the name of the game...everyone is going to be covered most of the time, so you need to be able to throw it a little to the right when the defender is a little to the left and your guy needs to box out and make that grab.  Roddy and TG were good at that...we need one of our guys (Sanu or Hooper) to step up and be that now.

JD dirtybird21 and Ergo Proxy like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, takeitdown said:

To add another one

https://imgur.com/hjRTtUn

Again shows Ryan has one of the highest percentages of any QB on 4th quarter comebacks (higher than Brees, Roethslisberger, Stafford, Rogers.)

I do think Ryan isn't quite as good at this as he was earlier, and isn't quite as good when TDs are needed (though that first article points to me maybe being wrong about that.)

I think that largely because we don't have a dependable threat over the middle.  In the compressed red zone space, you need guys who can catch contested throws.  That's the name of the game...everyone is going to be covered most of the time, so you need to be able to throw it a little to the right when the defender is a little to the left and your guy needs to box out and make that grab.  Roddy and TG were good at that...we need one of our guys (Sanu or Hooper) to step up and be that now.

To your point....Tony Gonzales was a big part of Matt's early career successes in RZ and late in games. 

⚡Slumerican⚡ likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Vandy said:

To this point....Tony Gonzales was a big part of Matt's early career successes in RZ and late in games. 

Agreed.  But it doesn't have to be Tony G level.  People underestimate how important it is to have a couple guys who can make contested catches consistently.  Usually a TE and a 6'2+ receiver.

Vandy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/7/2018 at 11:07 PM, Clark said:

I've always been a Ryan guy but I'm getting tired of defending him, to be honest. I'm a Falcons fan stuck in Kansas and I've been getting ragged on about Ryan for the last 24 hours. Nothing I can't handle but I am wondering what happened to him myself. 

Dude gets happy feet even when there is no pressure. He is missing reads, as PMF pointed out in his thread, and what in the world has happened to his long ball? It's never been the best but he seemed to correct it in 2016, only for these rainbows to return last year and last night. 

Matt used to be a guy i had supreme confidence in if we had the ball at the end of the game. Now I feel no confidence at all and actually quite the opposite. I'm perplexed at how we got here... 

The freaking rainbow throws are killing me...Needs to sling that SOB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tandy said:

This is not official - because I'm not sure if that is tracked where we can find it - but I do remember being behind Carolina by 16 points and winning.  2011 or 2012

How much were the Cowboys up in 2015 when we came back in their house?

Ergo Proxy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, slick0ne said:

How much were the Cowboys up in 2015 when we came back in their house?

21-0   so that's 21 points.   Good catch.   Still not sure if that's the most - but it's more than the 16 

Ergo Proxy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Tandy said:

21-0   so that's 21 points.   Good catch.   Still not sure if that's the most - but it's more than the 16 

Yeah I remember that one because I was so disgusted. Was watching the game over a Cowboys fan's house. They were all in my ear when they were up. Turned to mutes real quick though LOL

Tandy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Matt Ryan is so hated on, screw you Atlanta.

Hated on, or called out for not being the quarterback needed to win us a Super Bowl? I'm not the biggest Matt Ryan fan, but I don't want the dude to fail. I'd prefer he does well so this team can win and capitalize on the window we have. 

Fans want more than extra-inflated stats now. Kudos to them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Byrdman242424 said:

Hated on, or called out for not being the quarterback needed to win us a Super Bowl? I'm not the biggest Matt Ryan fan, but I don't want the dude to fail. I'd prefer he does well so this team can win and capitalize on the window we have. 

Fans want more than extra-inflated stats now. Kudos to them.

I agree - I've definitely supported Ryan and don't think our week 1 loss was all on him.  It's just that the jury is still out whether it was a good use of $30M per year.  I mean, we have the highest paid OL in the NFL, one of the highest paid RBs, Julio Jones plus spent another 1st on Ridley.  It's not like he's surrounded by a bunch of scrubs.  No, I don't think all of his teammates live up to their hype all the time either, but when you sign up for $30M I think it raises everyone's expectations.  We should expect more than 12 points against any team based on our payroll alone!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/7/2018 at 8:01 PM, TheFatboi said:

This is why you don’t let a Julio jones leave like so many wanted in the off season. He, Roddy, and gonzo have been huge for Matt and helped him get those numbers. Even in his mvp season Julio was an absolute beast and was in the mvp discussion himself. 

So true. ...... . I don't feel there would be much of a market for Matt Ryan in free agency. We will never find out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now