Romfal

Who you got for Roster Spot 53?

113 posts in this topic

On 9/1/2018 at 1:28 PM, Vandy said:

@Kayoh is busy Back at the lab reworking his analytics once again. LOL. 

That took me to Monster Mash: "I was working on the lab late one night..."

Reworking his metrics  is exactly what he should be doing.  I have great respect for the work @Kayoh has done on his metrics, his problems come from the way he defends them here on TATF.  He doesn't realize how his comments are perceived.

For example, after learning that Takk was injured during the combine, he said IF Takk was injured at the combine. I said IF? He had shoulder surgery, there's no IF about it. To him, that was just using a conditional phrase, he didn't understand that others perceived it to be an attempt to protect his data set. He does ish like that over and over. It's not the data so much as how he presents it.

He says he's continually re-working them to make the metrics  better, then makes absolute pronouncements like Hall is going to be better than Takk, gets angry when you disagree.  I wish he could just relax about it, not think of others comments as attacks on him and his work.

 

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1 hour ago, falconidae said:

That took me to Monster Mash: "I was working on the lab late one night..."

Reworking his metrics  is exactly what he should be doing.  I have great respect for the work @Kayoh has done on his metrics, his problems come from the way he defends them here on TATF.  He doesn't realize how his comments are perceived.

For example, after learning that Takk was injured during the combine, he said IF Takk was injured at the combine. I said IF? He had shoulder surgery, there's no IF about it. To him, that was just using a conditional phrase, he didn't understand that others perceived it to be an attempt to protect his data set. He does ish like that over and over. It's not the data so much as how he presents it.

He says he's continually re-working them to make the metrics  better, then makes absolute pronouncements like Hall is going to be better than Takk, gets angry when you disagree.  I wish he could just relax about it, not think of others comments as attacks on him and his work.

 

You outlined exactly why I enjoy giving our friend some crapola. I’m actually an analytics guy myself in my own line of work, so I get it. But you gotta check the ego at the door, or it will always come back and bite you in the ***. Believe me, I know. 

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if it helps, I've been working over the last couple months on not speaking in absolutes anymore. I've also been working for a while now on adding college production to my work and that probably would have tempered my expectations on hall, but not completely shattered them.

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28 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

it's really hard to not get defensive about my stuff when it gets dragged through the mud with the amount of work I've put into it

kayoh,

I really think most people would embrace your models if you were somewhat more humble about them and understanding that the model will NEVER be infallible.   Recognize your work for what it is - a useful tool if applied correctly.    No matter how much your analytics and models improve, it will never be foolproof.

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6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

kayoh,

I really think most people would embrace your models if you were somewhat more humble about them and understanding that the model will NEVER be infallible.   Recognize your work for what it is - a useful tool if applied correctly.    No matter how much your analytics and models improve, it will never be foolproof.

I agree with this. It's just frustrating when I'm trying to find most likely outcomes and there's constant pushback with people shouting that the least likely thing to happen, is going to happen, because football can't be determined by stats and stuff like that. I get that it's not perfect but there are a lot of people, yourself included, who flat out make fun of it and act like it's completely irrelevant for various reasons.

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34 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

 

Rekt. no wonder we traded up from round 7. 5th and onward become more or less < UDFA player chances. Sort of makes sense. Possibly a lot to do with STs, but also the sheer # of UDFAs vs # of players drafted rounds 5/6/7.

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5 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Rekt. no wonder we traded up from round 7. 5th and onward become more or less < UDFA player chances. Sort of makes sense. Possibly a lot to do with STs, but also the sheer # of UDFAs vs # of players drafted rounds 5/6/7.

it's also a problem of sample size. Most teams have 1 5th, 1 6th, and 1 7th round pick, whereas most teams bring in over a dozen UDFAs. Over the course of 5 years, you might only keep 2-4 of those possible 15 draft picks in the 5th/6th/7th round, but you'll probably only end up keeping 5-10 of those possible ~60-100 or so possible UDFAs. The hit rate is similar, if not slightly lower, for UDFAs, but the difference is you just get more UDFAs to work with, so the lower hit rate matters less.

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8 hours ago, Kayoh said:

it's also a problem of sample size. Most teams have 1 5th, 1 6th, and 1 7th round pick, whereas most teams bring in over a dozen UDFAs. Over the course of 5 years, you might only keep 2-4 of those possible 15 draft picks in the 5th/6th/7th round, but you'll probably only end up keeping 5-10 of those possible ~60-100 or so possible UDFAs. The hit rate is similar, if not slightly lower, for UDFAs, but the difference is you just get more UDFAs to work with, so the lower hit rate matters less.

BINGO - from year to year, NFL teams typically sign like 20 UDFA's while rounds 5,6,7 - I would guess the average NFL team would probably have 5 picks in those three rounds (when factoring in comp picks).

So 20 UDFA's is 4x larger than 5 picks in those last 3 rounds.

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On 9/2/2018 at 7:19 AM, FalconsFanSC said:

1 - Steven Means | Defensive Lineman | #51  (released by Eagles - solid player but Eagles are stacked.)

Team:  Unsigned Free Agent
Age / DOB:   (27) / 9/16/1990
Ht / Wt:   6'3' / 263
College:  Buffalo
Drafted:  2013 / Rd. 5 (147) / TB

2 - Hau'oli Kikaha | Defensive Lineman | #44 

Team:  Unsigned Free Agent
Age / DOB:   (26) / 7/24/1992
Ht / Wt:   6'3' / 246
College:  Washington
Drafted:  2015 / Rd. 2 (44) / NO

3 - John Simon | Defensive Lineman | #51

Team:  Unsigned Free Agent
Age / DOB:   (27) / 10/14/1990
Ht / Wt:   6'2' / 260
College:  Ohio State
Drafted:  2013 / Rd. 4 (129) / BAL

 

Welcome  Mr. Means.     

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