Sidecar Falcon

Why Run Defense Is Overrated.

81 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Exactly. You could respond to this video by pointing out what Matt Ryan’s record as a starter was from 2008-2012 when Michael Turner rushed for 100 yards. And also what it was when he didn’t. The video isn’t necessarily wrong. But like you said, variables 

That was a radically different offense than he runs now.  

 

2 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Eh, Matt Ryan has been successful when has a running game. When he doesn’t, the team usually sucks. I don’t mean to make it black and white as football is obviously very gray. But it just seems like Ryan is much better when a defense has to worry about stopping the run

Every QB looks better with a run game.

And, you're overlooking how much Ryan's passing makes the run game open up. Without a good passing QB, teams just play 8 in the box and dare you to beat them through the air. Do that with Ryan and he'll slice and dice the whole game long.

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3 minutes ago, falconidae said:

That was a radically different offense than he runs now.  

 

Every QB looks better with a run game.

And, you're overlooking how much Ryan's passing makes the run game open up. Without a good passing QB, teams just play 8 in the box and dare you to beat them through the air. Do that with Ryan and he'll slice and dice the whole game long.

You’re correct. I’m not saying a running game is better than a passing game or more important for that matter. I’m simply saying that all phases are important. Run defense too. 

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2 minutes ago, falconidae said:

That was a radically different offense than he runs now.  

 

Every QB looks better with a run game.

And, you're overlooking how much Ryan's passing makes the run game open up. Without a good passing QB, teams just play 8 in the box and dare you to beat them through the air. Do that with Ryan and he'll slice and dice the whole game long.

Conversely, with a strong running game those play-action passes are sweet.

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24 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

I’m mobile so can’t do the research I might like to but historically the team with the highest TOP is around 32:00 and lowest is 28:00. Most teams are separated by a minute or two. The average team runs about two plays per minute. So a team with a high TOP runs 2-4 more plays per game than a team with a lower TOP. It’s just not a big deal. The most important thing is scoring. 

What about the effect that playing run defense has vs. playing pass defense? Listen to any player talk. They'll all tell you that playing run defense wears on them more and that adds up week-to-week.

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8 minutes ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Conversely, with a strong running game those play-action passes are sweet.

And, without a strong passing game, run game doesn't take off. Falcons offense hasn't run through the RB since 2009.

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1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This is why we don't use raw yardage totals as an indicator of defensive performance. Because it provides minimal, if any, qualitative insight. 

Know why the Eagles and Patriots were "Top 5 rush defenses"? Because they were Bottom 5 in rushing attempts against. Because in 2017, they were usually winning....which typically results in the opposing offense passing more frequently. 

FTR - The Eagles' defense was very good against the run on an efficiency basis. They were also very good against the pass. Because they were a very good defense. The Pats' defense was bad against both the run and pass, and garbage overall. The Jags defense was best in the league against the pass and below average against the run and the best defense overall. 

Excellent post. 

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The perspective this article is speaking of is regarding the defense stopping the run, not an offense having a strong running game in of itself.

The point is being overlooked.

Good teams that can get leads need better PASS DEFENSE than RUN DEFENSE.

From a perspective of a run defense being of highest importance to winning.

Then, you have to weigh how they rank run defense performance rather than the raw rushing totals. Why? Since after all, good teams allow less rushing yards BECAUSE of being thrown at. So a better pass D is more important and is also tested by good teams that generate leads (multiple possession leads).

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17 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Larry, I like you as a poster and you bring lots of good info here but I completely disagree with this assessment.

Thats fine. You can be wrong. No law against that. 

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56 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Thats fine. You can be wrong. No law against that. 

I'm wrong plenty of times and I've never been afraid to admit it. But I don't think I'm wrong here. There's no way to convince me that run defense doesn't matter.

Btw, let's done start down the path of you telling me I'm wrong for having a different opinion than you. That part was really uncalled for, especially when I was completely respectful to you in my disagreement.

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It’s overrated. Not “doesn’t matter”...

Again,  The catch here is the difference in measuring actual performance based on the criteria used for the sake of this video and the context. Taken out of context yes it’s not entirely sensible. 

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All I'll say is numbers are all well and good, but unless you can put every single variable that can happen in a single football game in your math, the numbers will never show the real picture. One guys opinion.

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51 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I'm wrong plenty of times and I've never been afraid to admit it. But I don't think I'm wrong here. There's no way to convince me that run defense doesn't matter.

Btw, let's done start down the path of you telling me I'm wrong for having a different opinion than you. That part was really uncalled for, especially when I was completely respectful to you in my disagreement.

lol I thought you'd like that....take it easy, bruh...I'm just messing with you.

As for the argument, no one is actually saying "run defense doesnt matter." The more nuanced position is something like "we've heard for decades that "running the ball and stopping the run wins games.....but the data does not support either of those assertions." Like I said before....being BAD at anything on the football field isnt a good thing for your team. If your rush defense gives up 7 yards a carry, you're obviously going to take some lumps. But that doesnt really happen so its reasonable to look at what the actual data says and how the ~32 teams have fared each and every season to start to draw some conclusions. And as the data accumulates, we can start to draw some conclusions. And the fact (not opinion.....literal fact) is that run defense is far less correlated to success than other measures, specifically pass defense and pass offense. 

That doesnt mean it doesnt matter or that its irrelevant. It means its less important (to a pretty significant degree) than other possible strengths/weaknesses. 

 

Edit to add: I'm not telling you how to think but you're almost certainly making a mistake whenever you take the position that "theres no way to convince me that X" Not always...but usually. Thats working and hustling backwards (to borrow a phrase) 

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9 minutes ago, Dunn-Vick-Duckett said:

All I'll say is numbers are all well and good, but unless you can put every single variable that can happen in a single football game in your math, the numbers will never show the real picture. One guys opinion.

This isnt how data works or is used. And this "well you cant capture absolutely everything so its just an opinion" approach is absurd. 

And frankly, for this particular argument, one doesnt need "every single variable."

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On 8/30/2018 at 4:26 PM, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This is why we don't use raw yardage 

Know why the Eagles and Patriots were "Top 5 rush defenses"? Because they were Bottom 5 in rushing attempts against. Because in 2017, they were usually winning....which typically results in the opposing offense passing more

FTR - The Eagles' defense was very good against the run on an efficiency basis. They were also very good against the pass. Because they were a very good defense. The Pats' defense was bad against both the run and pass, and garbage overall. The Jags defense was best in the league against the pass and below average against the run and the best defense overall. 

I may be wrong, but perhaps  Malcolm Brown/Trey Flowers and Fletcher Cox/Brandon Graham had a little something to do with both teams’s statistical successes against the run too.

Falconsfan567 likes this

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I made it through 5 minutes..

if you want to sell me on the idea that stopping the run is not as important as in years past...you may have a point. But to say the running game is overrated is just stupid.

If what they were saying was actually true...the falcons would have 2 rings right now.

 

Our inability to stop the run in 2012 and our unwillingness to run the ball in 2016 are direct reasons why we did not win those games.

 

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3 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

I made it through 5 minutes..

if you want to sell me on the idea that stopping the run is not as important as in years past...you may have a point. But to say the running game is overrated is just stupid.

If what they were saying was actually true...the falcons would have 2 rings right now.

 

Our inability to stop the run in 2012 and our unwillingness to run the ball in 2016 are direct reasons why we did not win those games.

 

If Michael Turner doesn't get hurt the Falcons beat the 49ers in 2012. Once he went out the Falcons offense became one dimensional and the Niners took advantage.

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Also, here's something else, look at NFL history and the most potent passing offenses in NFL history. Think about teams such as the 1984 Dolphins, 1998 Vikings, 2004 Colts, 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos. How many of those teams won the Super Bowl? Those teams were pretty much pass or nothing offenses and none of them won the Super Bowl. That should tell you how important it is to run the ball effectively.

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4 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

If Michael Turner doesn't get hurt the Falcons beat the 49ers in 2012. Once he went out the Falcons offense became one dimensional and the Niners took advantage.

There is that...but we could not stop the run....had we contained the read option better  we would have won.

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Just now, Krosis said:

Hmm I’ve heard sacks are overrated too. 

Sacks are overrated. What good would it do to get a sack on 1st down if you allow the offense to get the first down on 2nd down? It makes the sack you got on 1st down completely meaningless. Give me 25 sacks all on 3rd down and you can have 50 sacks all on 1st down and I'll bet you more times than you beat me.

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2 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Sacks are overrated. What good would it do to get a sack on 1st down if you allow the offense to get the first down on 2nd down? It makes the sack you got on 1st down completely meaningless. Give me 25 sacks all on 3rd down and you can have 50 sacks all on 1st down and I'll bet you more times than you beat me.

I think there is a spot for you on the current Tampa Bay defensive coaching staff. 

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2 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

There is that...but we could not stop the run....had we contained the read option better  we would have won.

Defense was on the field way too much in the 2nd half of that game because of the offense's inability to run the ball. Remember 2010 when the Falcons won all those close games and finished the season 5th in points allowed? That only happened because of the Falcons being able to control the clock and keep the defense off the field. That didn't happen in the playoffs and a terrible Falcons defense got exposed.

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Just now, Krosis said:

I think there is a spot for you on the current Tampa Bay defensive coaching staff. 

Yep. I see you didn't understand the point. I'll ask you again, what good does a 1st down sack do you if you give up the 1st down on 2nd down? Answer the question or stfu.

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30 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Defense was on the field way too much in the 2nd half of that game because of the offense's inability to run the ball. Remember 2010 when the Falcons won all those close games and finished the season 5th in points allowed? That only happened because of the Falcons being able to control the clock and keep the defense off the field. That didn't happen in the playoffs and a terrible Falcons defense got exposed.

Well to be fair......Aaron Rodgers was so incredibly on point.

We had him dead to rights a few times and he was able to snake is way out and then throw a pass that had it been an inch higher it would have been incomplete.

Not running the ball hurt but there is nothing saying that the defense could not force a three and out.......we could not stop the read option and it killed us.

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