Sidecar Falcon

Why Run Defense Is Overrated.

81 posts in this topic

I like the part where he says good numbers running the ball and stopping the run come when the result of the game has already been determined rather than determining the result of the game themselves. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Advanced analytics have to be taken with a grain of salt and also held in perspective.  There are tons of garbage yards that affect teams specific ratings.  There are 2 things that will always get it done in the NFL. A strong run game and strong run defense. 

mqg96, Halcon-1, Tim Mazetti and 1 other like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So this is the kind of stuff that irks me about some of the analytics crowd.  I am not refuting their facts or figures.  On a data set over a season, I accept their findings but are we really surprised that it is better (easier) to throw than run.  It's been echo'd that this is a passing league so the findings are interpretations of what we already know.  Football is play to play and situational and there are times where running or passing are better options based on personnel, matchups, game conditions, time, score and scheme.  Throwing a blanket "don't worry so much about the run" is silly.  Computers and stats don't win football games, they try to help us understand general trends but these guys are not selling insight with this statistical revelation.  

Edited by Monolith2001

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Falcon Ben said:

I'll never understand the knee-jerk opposition to analytics that is so rampant in fan circles. 

Its not knee jerk.  Its the fact that many watch the game, look at numbers but yet still dont really understand all the circumstantial evidence the game provides.  Football is a science and an art. Especially evaluating the game. All the science doesnt tell the story and neither does the art.  Thats why so many guys with great measurables struggle.  Its also why a team like ours with a top 10 offense and defense struggles to win 10 games.  You have to always look at the total picture. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Falcon Ben said:

I'll never understand the knee-jerk opposition to analytics that is so rampant in fan circles. 

Ignorance is bliss.  The vast majority have never had a math class past high school algebra (and how many can even do that 10 years after school?)  Go to any entry level employee and ask them to draw a line and measure it, or make change without a calculator...

We is dumb.

Summerhill likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Value is based on needs of the situation. “Situational football” etc.

This is why I’m hopefully with a return of our scoring offense, that our VALUE for defense will be in more viable/fresh pass rushers than run defenders.

It’s common sense. Numbers should be it up. This isn’t surprising. Just a way to put those numbers in context is the point.

Who cares how you stop the run ahead 28-3 if Brady can’t pass because our pass rush is better than it was? (RIP AC)

So, a bad run D in that context isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Edited by Ergo Proxy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

I think a top run defence is overrated. But a BAD run D against a team that is good on the ground is a recipe for disaster. 

In a close game or in a situation of playing keep away, yes. Carolina right there when we play them. See also the Bills game last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Falcon Ben said:

knee-jerk

Title of video: Why Run Defense is Overrated

Within the first twenty seconds of said video: "We are talking about why stopping the run actually doesn't matter..."

chris rock what GIF

falconsd56 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I refuse to watch this video because I've seen a lot of football and you're never going to convince me that run defense doesn't matter or is "overrated." I've watched enough football in my life to know better.

^^^^^^This 

Falconsfan567 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's pretty simple. Every time a NFL team throws the ball, it averages 7 yards. The average NFL team scores about 25 passing TDs each season. Every time a NFL team runs the ball, it averages 4 yards. The average NFL team scores about 12 rushing TDs each season. 

It is simple numbers. There are more points in the passing game and more upside for being good passing the ball. There's just not that much upside to running. 

Kayoh and Tim Mazetti like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

It's pretty simple. Every time a NFL team throws the ball, it averages 7 yards. The average NFL team scores about 25 passing TDs each season. Every time a NFL team runs the ball, it averages 4 yards. The average NFL team scores about 12 rushing TDs each season. 

It is simple numbers. There are more points in the passing game and more upside for being good passing the ball. There's just not that much upside to running. 

This is a way too simplistic means of describing this in my opinion. There's more factors to consider than just 7 yards> 4 yards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is, if you can make an offense pass only, now you can make certain adjustments by putting on the pressure.

now if it’s an elite QB, then he may be able to still do quite well, but a 2nd tier guy in a scheme built around balance will have a higher likelihood of making more mistakes.

i get what they are saying and appreciate the perspective. I also understand there is a better chance of winning if you are balanced.

By creating an early lead and controlling the clock, if that’s other team cannot stop you from getting 3.5 ypc on the ground in the right intervals, the game is essentially over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eagles game in 2016 should explain for a lot of people why stopping the run is important. 

 

There arent many many teams who still play out the run, but if you go up against one with that glaring weakness, you ain’t coming off the field. It’s similar to teams spending heavily on DBs to beat the passing offenses, and then Shanahan coming through and ripping through teams in weak base sets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

It's pretty simple. Every time a NFL team throws the ball, it averages 7 yards. The average NFL team scores about 25 passing TDs each season. Every time a NFL team runs the ball, it averages 4 yards. The average NFL team scores about 12 rushing TDs each season. 

It is simple numbers. There are more points in the passing game and more upside for being good passing the ball. There's just not that much upside to running. 

Ever heard of the thing called Time of Possession? It matters greatly in who wins and loses football games and is something that has a carryover effect week-to-week

Boise Falcon Fan likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I refuse to watch this video because I've seen a lot of football and you're never going to convince me that run defense doesn't matter or is "overrated." I've watched enough football in my life to know better.

Yeah I'm with you 567.

Its like this whole numbers thing when you are evaluating players if the numbers don't match the film forget about the numbers.It all has to correlate or it's a waste of time.

Falconsfan567 likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now