The Falcon Jedi Knight

Adam Schein ranks Atlanta Defense #8

32 posts in this topic

I hope they can stay at 8 or improve on it... Would help out a lot if the D got a nasty swag this year like nobody supposed to score... A la Seattle a few yrs ago and Jacksonville last yr... 

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12 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Points per game isnt an overly meaningful metric, for either the defense or the offense. Raw yardage rank (particularly for defense) isnt useless but its close. 

I go where the meaningful data leads me. And the meaningful data supports the assertion that the offense was better than the defense last year. I dont think I ever said the offense was a Top 5 unit, but I'd probably agree that it was Top 10 in 2017. It WAS Top 5 in a few high value metrics but closer to ten in some others. 

I think this defense has all the potential in the world. And I DO think it finished the season much stronger, for the most part. If the defense plays this season like it played the last 1/3 of 2017, it can be a Top 10 unit. But if its going to come out and spend the first half of the season in the bottom ~1/3 of the league in drive stats, YPP, and DVOA, I'm not going to give it the credit that others do. Because it wont deserve it. 

A top 5 offense doesn’t do this:

1st Quarter: 6th in NFL at 5.2 pts (down 2.7 pts from last year)

2nd Quarter:  14th at 7.1 pts (down 4 pts from last year)

3rd Quarter:  26th at 3.2 pts ( down 5 pts from last year)

4th Quarter:  18th at 6.1 pts (down just .5 pts but we were no longer trying to score in 4th Quarter last year).

 

This tells me that when on script we are fine, but once things go off script and we need quick decisions from our OC he simply isn’t there yet.

People will say our D didn’t give the offense enough opportunities.  Well in 2016 we averaged 62.0 plays per game while in 2017 we averaged 61.9.  

TD’s Per Game: 2.2  in 2017     4.1 in 2016

                            

Seattle, Jacksonville, Minnesota & Carolina all averaged more points per play than Atl.

Our coaching talent is on the defensive side of the ball.  Heck, we have a DB coach running the receivers. 

 

 With that said, I like what I have seen and heard from Sark in camp so far. One series is an enough to judge his maturation over the off-season so I am still hopeful. Last year there could be no doubt 

Edited by Falconsin2012

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13 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

A top 5 offense doesn’t do this:

1st Quarter: 6th in NFL at 5.2 pts (down 2.7 pts from last year)

2nd Quarter:  14th at 7.1 pts (down 4 pts from last year)

3rd Quarter:  26th at 3.2 pts ( down 5 pts from last year)

4th Quarter:  18th at 6.1 pts (down just .5 pts but we were no longer trying to score in 4th Quarter last year).

 

This tells me that when on script we are fine, but once things go off script and we need quick decisions from our OC he simply isn’t there yet.

People will say our D didn’t give the offense enough opportunities.  Well in 2016 we averaged 62.0 plays per game while in 2017 we averaged 61.9.  

TD’s Per Game: 2.2  in 2017     4.1 in 2016

                            

Seattle, Jacksonville, Minnesota & Carolina all averaged more points per play than Atl.

Our coaching talent is on the defensive side of the ball.  Heck, we have a DB coach running the receivers. 

 

 With that said, I like what I have seen and heard from Sark in camp so far. One series is an enough to judge his maturation over the off-season so I am still hopeful. Last year there could be no doubt 

Again, I didnt say the offense was a Top 5 unit last year. But I'd point out that points count the same no matter when they're scored. I'd also point out that measuring ANY offense against the Falcons 2016 offense isnt really appropriate. That was one of the ~10 or so best offenses in league history. The outlier should never be treated as the baseline. Never ever ever. EVEN IF everything had remained exactly the same in 2017 as it did in 2016, we still would have regressed. The 2016 offense was not sustainable over multiple years. 

As for WHY things were different last year, thats a complicated question. But the short answer is "a combination of a new offensive coordinator, an increase in negative variance plays and a decrease in volume/opportunities for the offense." We were comfortably last in the league in terms of meaningful possessions. We had 9 fewer than any other offense in the league and 22 fewer than the league average. Why? Because our offense was very effective at moving the ball and our defense was not very effective at stopping other teams from moving the ball. Which means "shorter" games with fewer possessions. When you have fewer possessions, each possession has more gravity. When you have an uptick in weird fluky turnovers on a relatively small number of possessions, the lost opportunities are that much more harmful. 

And FTR, we were 7th in the league in points per drive, 2nd in plays per drive, 1st in TOP per drive, 6% in scoring %, 5th in yards per play, 7th in expected points added by the offense, and 9th in DVOA. We were a top 10 offense with relatively low volume. 

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On 8/14/2018 at 3:23 PM, The Falcon Jedi Knight said:

8. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is routinely overshadowed by its star-studded offense. But I think this D, which really started to perform down the stretch last season, is going to really surprise some people in 2018.

On the day Matt Ryan raved about Ricardo Allen to me on SiriusXM Radio, the Falcons smartly rewarded the safety with a new contract. The defensive backfield is strong as a whole, with Keanu Neal establishing himself as one of the league's most imposing hammers. Up front, Grady Jarrett is a menace on the defensive interior. Defensive end Vic Beasley is capable of being special, but the Falcons have to put him in positions to succeed as an edge rusher. And I expect Takk McKinley to have a vastly improved second season.

In the middle of it all is Deion Jones, a stud middle linebacker who excels against the pass and run. Pro Football Focus had him ranked as the No. 4 linebacker in football last season.

 

 

Does he know we have CBs? 

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how much is losing poe going to hurt us?  is our def line too soft and much worse than last year?  can we trust senat to become a grady like quality player?

also, what effect will having beastly playing DE this year be playing alongside Takk?

 

these are the big questions to my mind  honestly I'm more concerned our offense will never be the offensive juggernaught it was two years ago  it was like we were playing knee deep in mud for much of last season

 

 

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On 8/14/2018 at 5:20 PM, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

If the defense wants to be a Top 10 unit, its going to need to actually play like a Top 10 unit. For the whole season, not just a marked improvement over the second half of the year. 

I agree. Take the reigns off game 1 and stay aggressive letting the chips fall where they may. 

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