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How would a new contract for Julio affect paying for other players next year?

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46 minutes ago, Peyton said:

According to who? 

Taylor Lewan has been voted to two Pro Bowls already and voted by his peers as a top 100 player in the NFL.

Ugh. I typed out a huge response and it got deleted. Anyway, I'll do it again....

Lewan has received more accolades....likely because he's a much more boisterous player on a team that has been decent without much star power. But their on the field performance has been remarkably similar. Matthews was slightly better in Y1, considerably better in Y2, worse in Y3 and equal in Y4. 

Bleacher Report's B/R1000 feature is put together by some of the best football writers in the industry. For the 2017 season, they had Matthews 8th and Lewan 7th. For 2016, they had Lewan 9th and Matthews 12th, although the difference between them was attributed to "agility" and not indexed to actual pass blocking or run blocking. 

Last year, PFF had Lewan 16th among tackles (which I believe means ALL tackles). Matthews was 14th. 

The Football Outsiders Almanac contains annual charting data for most of the players in the league. Here's how the two compare:

In 2014, Matthews played 944 snaps, had 11 penalties, allowed 4 sacks, blew 21 pass blocks and 6 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 6th in the league. Lewan played 353 snaps, had 4 penalties, allowed 4 sacks, blew 6 pass blocks and 1.5 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 7th in the league. 

In 2015, Matthews played 1127 snaps, had 4 penalties, allowed 2 sacks, blew 6 pass blocks and 2 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 15th in the league. Lewan played 911 snaps, had 10 penalties, allowed 4.5 sacks, blew 5.5 pass blocks and 3 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 16th in the league. 

In 2016, Matthews played 978 snaps, had 8 penalties, allowed 5.5 sacks, blew 17 pass blocks and 7 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 10th in the league. Lewan played 989 snaps, had 14 penalties, allowed 2.5 sacks, blew 7 pass blocks and 7 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 1st in the league. 

In 2017, I dont have individual player for the 2017 season yet but FO has the team run data. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 3rd in the league. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 25th in the league. 

Keep in mind, things like "sacks allowed" and "blown blocks" can be helpful but dont necessarily mean bad play...particularly sacks allowed. Nor do they account for quality of opponent or scheme. Still, to the extent that the two have "production" their production is very similar. Their recent subjective evaluations have been similar. There are certainly stylistic differences there and Lewan is the more...."charismatic" of the two players. But in terms of player quality, there hasnt been much difference over the course of their first four seasons. 

Leaving aside the questions about whether Pro Bowls are reliable measures of player performance (Duane Brown made the Pro Bowl last year......for the Seahawks....think about that for a second) Lewan has two Pro Bowl appearances because he plays in a conference with a relative dearth of "name" left tackles. Its basically Joe Thomas and thats it.  Unfortunately for Matthews, he's spent his career in the same conference as Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, and Jason Peters. Not to mention other ++ left tackles of lesser profiles including David Bahktiari and Joe Staley (and now Andre Whitworth, although he was in the AFC prior to 2017.) He also never says a word. 

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1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

2016 playoffs SB and NFCCG huge games.

2012 NFCCG clutch I don't even know what too say to that the guys been that for the Falcons his whole career.

Come the big games when it matters are you saying #11 goes missing ?

You can't argue with his play in the playoff games, been amazing.  The dude's contract is fine though.

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Just now, Peyton said:

You can't argue with his play in the playoff games, been amazing.  The dude's contract is fine though.

The contract is of much debate I understand that.

I just feel we need to get something done whatever that maybe so everyone saves face and we can move on from this.

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Ugh. I typed out a huge response and it got deleted. Anyway, I'll do it again....

Lewan has received more accolades....likely because he's a much more boisterous player on a team that has been decent without much star power. But their on the field performance has been remarkably similar. Matthews was slightly better in Y1, considerably better in Y2, worse in Y3 and equal in Y4. 

Bleacher Report's B/R1000 feature is put together by some of the best football writers in the industry. For the 2017 season, they had Matthews 8th and Lewan 7th. For 2016, they had Lewan 9th and Matthews 12th, although the difference between them was attributed to "agility" and not indexed to actual pass blocking or run blocking. 

Last year, PFF had Lewan 16th among tackles (which I believe means ALL tackles). Matthews was 14th. 

The Football Outsiders Almanac contains annual charting data for most of the players in the league. Here's how the two compare:

In 2014, Matthews played 944 snaps, had 11 penalties, allowed 4 sacks, blew 21 pass blocks and 6 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 6th in the league. Lewan played 353 snaps, had 4 penalties, allowed 4 sacks, blew 6 pass blocks and 1.5 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 7th in the league. 

In 2015, Matthews played 1127 snaps, had 4 penalties, allowed 2 sacks, blew 6 pass blocks and 2 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 15th in the league. Lewan played 911 snaps, had 10 penalties, allowed 4.5 sacks, blew 5.5 pass blocks and 3 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 16th in the league. 

In 2016, Matthews played 978 snaps, had 8 penalties, allowed 5.5 sacks, blew 17 pass blocks and 7 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 10th in the league. Lewan played 989 snaps, had 14 penalties, allowed 2.5 sacks, blew 7 pass blocks and 7 run blocks. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 1st in the league. 

In 2017, I dont have individual player for the 2017 season yet but FO has the team run data. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Falcons were 3rd in the league. On runs charted to "left tackle" the Titans were 25th in the league. 

Keep in mind, things like "sacks allowed" and "blown blocks" can be helpful but dont necessarily mean bad play...particularly sacks allowed. Nor do they account for quality of opponent or scheme. Still, to the extent that the two have "production" their production is very similar. Their recent subjective evaluations have been similar. There are certainly stylistic differences there and Lewan is the more...."charismatic" of the two players. But in terms of player quality, there hasnt been much difference over the course of their first four seasons. 

Leaving aside the questions about whether Pro Bowls are reliable measures of player performance (Duane Brown made the Pro Bowl last year......for the Seahawks....think about that for a second) Lewan has two Pro Bowl appearances because he plays in a conference with a relative dearth of "name" left tackles. Its basically Joe Thomas and thats it.  Unfortunately for Matthews, he's spent his career in the same conference as Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, and Jason Peters. Not to mention other ++ left tackles of lesser profiles including David Bahktiari and Joe Staley (and now Andre Whitworth, although he was in the AFC prior to 2017.) He also never says a word. 

Much props for that explanation.  I wasn't that passionate about the issue, just seems to me that Lewan is held in a higher regard across the board than Matthews. Good work.

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6 minutes ago, YoungHeezy said:

He scored the game tying TD against Tampa in 2015. Week 8. 17 seconds left on the clock.

Thank you for the correction. He did.  Pro Football Reference has an error in their splits, I guess they credited that as a TD scored when the Falcons were ahead instead of behind.

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5 minutes ago, Vandy said:

LOL Peyton, just LOL. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSirjCbbP1c

I get upset watching that.

What happend after that catch the person/s should be put up on charges for theft.

That catch should have gone down in the annals of SB history instead it's thrown into the trash can with the what ifs drives me nuts too this day every time I see it.

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5 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Meh....You just Keep being you man....

 

I appreciate that are countless Julio highlights that can be pulled up. He is an amazing athlete.   It's also true that he will have been paid 93 million dollars by the time his current contract runs out.

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1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

The starting QB for the last NFL Championship team was a back-up who had washed out of numerous other spots. 

I guess that means we can just move forward with backup QBs!

Or you're making a laughable error in logic.

The starting QB for the last NFL Championship team was a proven starter that took care of business in the playoffs and got a ring. He may go down as a Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson who were anomalies that QBed solid teams to a Lombardi. Nice comparison.  

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3 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

I get upset watching that.

What happend after that catch the person/s should be put up on charges for theft.

That catch should have gone down in the annals of SB history instead it's thrown into the trash can with the what ifs drives me nuts too this day every time I see it.

Agreed. Not only one of the best, but also one of the most clutch catches I've ever seen. 

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1 hour ago, Dirtybird3 said:

If he expects or feels he's getting anything above top 8 average salary for position here he crazy lol. Not saying he isn't gone get paid but top 3 at his position yea right, lewan different story 

Well he's #2 in total cash this year and 7th in cap hit.

Yall might wanna hunker down.

Bloodline will get paid. 

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1 minute ago, Vandy said:

Agreed. Not only one of the best, but also one of the most clutch catches I've ever seen. 

Ok one thing we can all agree on.  What happened after that was the most sickening offensive series in Atlanta Falcons football history.

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1 hour ago, Peyton said:

According to who? 

Taylor Lewan has been voted to two Pro Bowls already and voted by his peers as a top 100 player in the NFL.

The perception of Bloodline is viewed through a prism on TATF bro.

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56 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Stop the scare mongering we already had this conversation this off season when you thought we were in similar trouble this season yet the Falcons right now are still 5 mill under this year's cap.

If you look at what we've drafted the 3 of the last 4 years that should have given you a moment of pause.I been telling alot on here all this does is put pressure on the drafting and as above 3 out of the 4 years it looks like we've hit it out of the Park.

So I'm not sure why so many including yourself are worried about the cap.

All the FO have to do now if they haven't already is identify the main guy's there going to pay going foward and structure and time the money and the releases to fit who they deem the most important.

Are you suggesting we replace all of those free agents with draft picks?

If so we might need to move Julio for some more picks. Lots more.

We will struggle to retain our "main guys".
 

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25 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Is it absurd?

Tell me if this stat seems a little bit strange for a player who is a "generational talent" and "the best WR in the league".

In his 7 year career, Julio Jones has never scored a TD in the last 4 minutes of a game the Falcons were losing.

In the last two seasons, he's only caught one pass in the last two minutes of the Falcons 11 losses. 

You know why it is hard to remember those times when Julio saved the Falcons in the clutch?  Because they didn't happen.

In order:

You are incorrect about Julio never scoring a TD in the last 4 minutes of a game the Falcons were losing. He did that in 2015 against the Bucs to tie the game with :17 seconds left. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201511010atl.htm

You are also incorrect about Julio "only catching one pass in the last two minutes of the Falcons 11 losses." He's caught 3 such passes on 9 targets. All of them went for first downs.

And of course, it goes without saying that moments that occur prior to the "last two minutes" can be very much examples of "clutch" performance. I neednt remind you of his absurd should-have-been-SB-securing catch in February 2017. Or his monster 75 yard TD with less than 4 minutes to go against a Carolina team clawing itself back into a game in October 2016. Or the huge 3rd down conversion with less than 4 minutes to go against Tampa last November. Or the big 18 yard pickup right before the 2 minute warning against Miami last year. 

But really, none of this is actually enlightening. Its the same sort of "lets parse things down to a tiny sample so we can claim someone isnt clutch" nonsense that happens elsewhere in football. Meanwhile, he continues to play at an elite level year in and year out and is a matchup nightmare for 31 other teams. 

Here's a nice passage Evan Silva wrote and released yesterday. Its ostensibly for fantasy purposes but it really applies to the game overall: 

Quote

Julio Jones was a 2017 testament to not only the fickle nature of touchdowns, but their impact on fantasy football perception. Widely viewed as a disappointment despite finishing second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,444) and as a top-seven wideout in both PPR and non-PPR scoring, Jones managed three TDs as a byproduct of red-zone woes that also bogged down Ryan’s fantasy bottom line. It wasn’t for lack of trying; Jones ranked eighth among wide receivers in red-zone targets (19) and third in targets inside the ten-yard line (11). Advanced metrics show Julio lost nothing off his open-field fastball, leading the entire league in PFF’s predictive Yards Per Route Run metric (3.08) and demonstrating elite Game Speed in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Next Gen Stats study. It’s important to remember that football is a small-sample sport. Players don’t get 600 at-bats or take 2,000 shots each season, and the resulting game-to-game and year-to-year variance helps make the NFL great. After experiencing the right side of touchdown variance in 2016, Julio and Ryan were on the wrong side last year. I like both to bounce back.

 

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13 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

The starting QB for the last NFL Championship team was a proven starter that took care of business in the playoffs and got a ring. He may go down as a Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson who were anomalies that QBed solid teams to a Lombardi. Nice comparison.  

lol "proven starter"? 

You sure about that? 

Its remarkable how much you struggle with working from the specific to the general and vice versa. 

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3 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Are you suggesting we replace all of those free agents with draft picks?

If so we might need to move Julio for some more picks. Lots more.

We will struggle to retain our "main guys".
 

And as a an oldtimer around here, you would know this is a much more elegant problem to have versus how it use to be. 

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3 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Are you suggesting we replace all of those free agents with draft picks?

If so we might need to move Julio for some more picks. Lots more.

We will struggle to retain our "main guys".
 

Imagine that....an NFL team having to replace veteran roster players with draft picks. 

Do you even pay attention to the league or do you just use it as a springboard for griping? 

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Are you suggesting we replace all of those free agents with draft picks?

If so we might need to move Julio for some more picks. Lots more.

We will struggle to retain our "main guys".
 

Who have we struggled to maintain?

You mix and match the talent with the incoming that's what we've been doing now and for the most part in this scheme of DQs the rookies pretty much get to play.

We won't struggle to at all the guys we keep will be the guys chosen we go foward with as long as we keep plugging in young talent around the chosen we will keep rolling.

 

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46 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Is it absurd?

Tell me if this stat seems a little bit strange for a player who is a "generational talent" and "the best WR in the league".

In his 7 year career, Julio Jones has never scored a TD in the last 4 minutes of a game the Falcons were losing.

In the last two seasons, he's only caught one pass in the last two minutes of the Falcons 11 losses. 

You know why it is hard to remember those times when Julio saved the Falcons in the clutch?  Because they didn't happen.

Never knew. 

The leading receiver on the last championship team was a TE with 824 yards. He had 8 TDs though.

Julio hasn't had 8 TDs since 2015.

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Just now, Vandy said:

And as a an oldtimer around here, you would know this is a much more elegant problem to have versus how it use to be. 

You should ask him which other NFL teams dont have to draft players for roster replacement. Or which other teams arent subject to the salary cap or typical draft pick allotments. Or which teams get special cap exemptions for their "main guys."

Embarrassing. 

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Just now, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

You should ask him which other NFL teams dont have to draft players for roster replacement. Or which other teams arent subject to the salary cap or typical draft pick allotments. Or which teams get special cap exemptions for their "main guys."

Embarrassing. 

FF70? Naw my man, I know his game. He'll just come back with some BS answer that will make half the board go ape-****. He's loves just ******* with us Larry. 

And you know it's true better than anyone in here. 

 

:)

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8 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Never knew. 

The leading receiver on the last championship team was a TE with 824 yards. He had 8 TDs though.

Julio hasn't had 8 TDs since 2015.

Well apparently there was a mistake and pro football reference splits and Julio does have one touchdown in the last 4 minutes. About the examples of him making plays in the late moments of games aren't as copious as you think they'd be for a guy who's supposed to be the best of all time.

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