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How many picks could we get for Julio?


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On 6/15/2018 at 9:36 AM, Peyton said:

It's hard to say what his value is.  Obviously he is from a yardage standpoint one of the most productive players ever, but he's probably already peaked.  He's showing signs of being a prima donna which has never been his thing.  Teams have to wonder why he only plays 65 to 70 percent of the plays, like maybe his feet can't handle the full load.  I think this incident that is happening right now reduces his trade value.

It's hard to know.  For sure nobody would trade at all unless we let Julio work a deal out with them in advance, so I doubt a trade is even being considered.  Because that is the kind of arrangement that always gets leaked out by somebody.

Julio played 74.6% of the offensive snaps in 2017. Most for any WR on the team (Sanu 73.6%).

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On ‎6‎/‎16‎/‎2018 at 4:19 PM, Knight of God said:

Yeah, you mean when Julio was taking double and triple teams? Save the head shake.

Julio missed two games that year. No picks from Ryan in either game. If anything I think the argument can be made that Ryan gets a good bit of his picks when he tries to force the ball to Julio. But hey you and FATboi are the only ones that know football. The rest of us just watch it.

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1 hour ago, 2_legit_2_legit_2_quit said:

Julio missed two games that year. No picks from Ryan in either game. If anything I think the argument can be made that Ryan gets a good bit of his picks when he tries to force the ball to Julio. But hey you and FATboi are the only ones that know football. The rest of us just watch it.

So, its Julio's fault Ryan throws picks then?

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3 hours ago, Duff_Man said:

Julio played 74.6% of the offensive snaps in 2017. Most for any WR on the team (Sanu 73.6%).

I stand corrected.  Still that puts him at 37th in the league among WRs in snaps played and 29th in the league in pct of offensive plays on the field. Curious numbers.

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7 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Man this whole discussion is bunk. Not to mention some of the posting conduct....

Offseason can't move quickly enough, imo....

This particular issue has caused board members to lose their civility even more than usual. It's wild.

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2 hours ago, Knight of God said:

So, its Julio's fault Ryan throws picks then?

No you originally said that Ryan's picks would go up if Julio wasn't on the field. I gave you two instances where Julio did not play and Ryan didn't throw a pick. I also said the argument could be made that Ryan's picks might actually go down without Julio on the field because he wouldn't be trying to force the ball to him.

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2 hours ago, Peyton said:

No but it's absolutely true that a decent portion of his picks come from trying to force the ball to Julio.  Two consecutive possessions against the Saints come to mind.

 

30 minutes ago, 2_legit_2_legit_2_quit said:

No you originally said that Ryan's picks would go up if Julio wasn't on the field. I gave you two instances where Julio did not play and Ryan didn't throw a pick. I also said the argument could be made that Ryan's picks might actually go down without Julio on the field because he wouldn't be trying to force the ball to him.

I actually think they would. He would try and force all the passes to Ridley or Hooper.

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On 6/16/2018 at 4:57 PM, TheFatboi said:

You know what the problem is bro? Most ppl here no players but they don’t know the game. They just watch it. And that’s why you get crazy posts like that. The tv cameras only follow the ball. They don’t see a safety sitting on Julio and a LB in combination with the corner in bracket coverage on Julio. That’s three ppl. They don’t understand that’s how toilolo was able to get so open against Seattle in 2016 because Julio ran a shallow cross took Sherman, the safety and another guy with him. They don’t understand that Sanu caught the game winning TD against GB because Matt NEW Julio was gonna take the safety with him leaving sanu in single coverage with a LINEBACKER. They don’t understand how Hooper was so open against the bears last year because Julio took the safety playing center field with him. They don’t understand that. They think it’s just Matt being great by himself. 

Nonsense!!! Julio should’ve been the target on that Sanu TD because the board told me he’s only great if he gets touchdowns. That’s the most important metric. Forget how teams play us when he’s on the field, we need stats!!! We got fever and the only prescription is more stats. 

4 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Man this whole discussion is bunk. Not to mention some of the posting conduct....

Offseason can't move quickly enough, imo....

This place will rise like a phoenix once it burns down when Julio gets the new contract

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On 6/16/2018 at 4:19 PM, Knight of God said:

Yeah, you mean when Julio was taking double and triple teams? Save the head shake.

Right, cuz Matt was trash before we got Julio? In fact we made the playoffs in 08 and 10 becuase of the rumors we were drafting Julio in 11. 

Nope, the head shake needs to stay. 27-40 ints, TAFT never ceases to amaze.

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5 minutes ago, runshoot said:

Right, cuz Matt was trash before we got Julio? In fact we made the playoffs in 08 and 10 becuase of the rumors we were drafting Julio in 11. 

Nope, the head shake needs to stay. 27-40 ints, TAFT never ceases to amaze.

Matt was a game manager before Julio got here. We were a running team that was lead by michael turner. No Matt wasnt trash but he wasn’t the reason we were in the playoffs. And good point. We missed the playoffs in 2009 Bessie turner sustained a high ankle sprain and we lost a couple games without him that would’ve surely put us in the playoffs. Also we never got out of the 1st Round before Julio got here. AND when Julio got here was when we took the handle bars off Matt and gave him the keys to the offense and began the assent to a passing team. Matt got his first playoff win once Julio joined the team. Matter of fact we went all the way to the NFCCG. Julio had 2 TD’s in that game. 

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Just now, TheFatboi said:

Matt was a game manager before Julio got here. We were a running team that was lead by michael turner. No Matt wasnt trash but he wasn’t the reason we were in the playoffs. And good point. We missed the playoffs in 2009 Bessie turner sustained a high ankle sprain and we lost a couple games without him that would’ve surely put us in the playoffs. Also we never got out of the 1st Round before Julio got here. AND when Julio got here was when we took the handle bars off Matt and gave him the keys to the offense and began the assent to a passing team. 

The offense was certainly more about Turner. And then about Gonzales. And now about Julio. Offenses change philosophies change and all that goes with it.

Whats been the same among all these changes? Who has been the 1 guy we could actually build around? Julios a stud, HOF. Turner was briefly and so was Roddy and Tony is a HOF'er. Yet Ryan is the guy that was the lynch pin to all of them on offense. To think that MAtt would crumble without Julio is flat out ignorant and if someone wants to be offended by me saying that, then go be offended. Its ignorant.

Know what else changed on our 1st Playoff win? We fielded a D that year that was pretty dang good. 

What happened when we let John Abraham leave and put together a scrub set of LBs on our defense? How did Julio help us those years? Julio helps the offense, but he isn't THE offense.

 

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Difficult to say.  He’s obviously a first round talent, but his recent financial demands may lower his trade value.  He’s already 29 years old too.  Falcons are in a tough spot with him...I feel their pain.  I remember when the Eagles went through this with T.O.

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8 minutes ago, runshoot said:

The offense was certainly more about Turner. And then about Gonzales. And now about Julio. Offenses change philosophies change and all that goes with it.

Whats been the same among all these changes? Who has been the 1 guy we could actually build around? Julios a stud, HOF. Turner was briefly and so was Roddy and Tony is a HOF'er. Yet Ryan is the guy that was the lynch pin to all of them on offense. To think that MAtt would crumble without Julio is flat out ignorant and if someone wants to be offended by me saying that, then go be offended. Its ignorant.

Know what else changed on our 1st Playoff win? We fielded a D that year that was pretty dang good. 

What happened when we let John Abraham leave and put together a scrub set of LBs on our defense? How did Julio help us those years? Julio helps the offense, but he isn't THE offense.

 

The question is who would it be about now? Matt is good, I love him but the reality is Matt is Montana. He is not Brady. We need a #1 target and if Julio isn’t here Matt is alone. We struggle now when Julio is off the field and we don’t have a run system. Tell me how we’d do this. BTW...I’m a Bama fan. Ridley needs Julio and Sanu for the first half of the season at least

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6 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

The question is who would it be about now? Matt is good, I love him but the reality is Matt is Montana. He is not Brady. We need a #1 target and if Julio isn’t here Matt is alone. We struggle now when Julio is off the field and we don’t have a run system. Tell me how we’d do this. BTW...I’m a Bama fan. Ridley needs Julio and Sanu for the first half of the season at least

This is a fact. We run a version of the WCO. That means you have WR#1 for the offense to go thru. That’s why the Montana comparison makes a ton of sense. Montana was in the right system for his arm and the offense went thru Jerry Rice. And if ppl are offended by that they shouldn’t be. Brady and Matt are both system qb’s. Brady his been in HIS system his whole career and I’ve stated when Matt first got here he’s suited for the wco and wanted us to run that. You too if I’m recalling right. That’s why you and I were thrilled when Quinn hired Kyle. Now we run it and look how he’s looked since 2015. But it’s also because the wco features a dominant wr. Schaub was good in houston in this same system because he had dominant Johnson the offense went thru. Along with a strong running game like we have. 

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4 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

This is a fact. We run a version of the WCO. That means you have WR#1 for the offense to go thru. That’s why the Montana comparison makes a ton of sense. Montana was in the right system for his arm and the offense went thru Jerry Rice. And if ppl are offended by that they shouldn’t be. Brady and Matt are both system qb’s. Brady his been in HIS system his whole career and I’ve stated when Matt first got here he’s suited for the wco and wanted us to run that. You too if I’m recalling right. That’s why you and I were thrilled when Quinn hired Kyle. Now we run it and look how he’s looked since 2015. But it’s also because the wco features a dominant wr. Schaub was good in houston in this same system because he had dominant Johnson the offense went thru. Along with a strong running game like we have. 

Exactly. This is why I make less noise about a bruising RB, not necessary for what we do. Hooper is fine for the system and so are the other guys, but Julio has to be here until someone else proves they can take the pressure off the other receivers and Matt 

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2 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Exactly. This is why I make less noise about a bruising RB, not necessary for what we do. Hooper is fine for the system and so are the other guys, but Julio has to be here until someone else proves they can take the pressure off the other receivers and Matt 

Absolutely. I can’t recall any great  wco in the history of the offense that didn’t feature a dominant wr. 

1. 49ers with Jerry Rice

2. Vikings with Chris Carter 

3. Vikings with Randy Moss

4. Packers with Sterling Sharpe

5. Texans with Andre Johnson

6. Steelers with Antonio Brown

7 Eagles with TO

Its some others I’m forgetting but you get it  

 

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24 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

Absolutely. I can’t recall any great  wco in the history of the offense that didn’t feature a dominant wr. 

1. 49ers with Jerry Rice

2. Vikings with Chris Carter 

3. Vikings with Randy Moss

4. Packers with Sterling Sharpe

5. Texans with Andre Johnson

6. Steelers with Antonio Brown

7 Eagles with TO

Its some others I’m forgetting but you get it  

Yeah but by it's definition a great offense is going to lift up the reputation of the players in it.  The guys you listed are great players, no doubt.

But the Packers have had a really good offense for 25 years.  They've been through a lot of number one guys that were at least for a year or two were regarded as "great", even though they really weren't, but because they were featured in that offense. Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Javon Walker, etc.

Ridley can't do everything Julio can do, obviously, but I think he is a very talented player.

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26 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

Absolutely. I can’t recall any great  wco in the history of the offense that didn’t feature a dominant wr. 

1. 49ers with Jerry Rice

2. Vikings with Chris Carter 

3. Vikings with Randy Moss

4. Packers with Sterling Sharpe

5. Texans with Andre Johnson

6. Steelers with Antonio Brown

7 Eagles with TO

Its some others I’m forgetting but you get it  

 

Man, I wish I could find that Montana interview.

1 minute ago, Peyton said:

Yeah but by it's definition a great offense is going to lift up the reputation of the players in it.  The guys you listed are great players, no doubt.

But the Packers have had a really good offense for 25 years.  They've been through a lot of number one guys that were at least for a year or two were regarded as "great", even though they really weren't, but because they were featured in that offense. Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Javon Walker, etc.

Ridley can't do everything Julio can do, obviously, but I think he is a very talented player.

Ridley isn't Julio by any means, he does what he does well though. For now, we need Julio. I don't think people really understand that to be honest.

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53 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Yeah but by it's definition a great offense is going to lift up the reputation of the players in it.  The guys you listed are great players, no doubt.

But the Packers have had a really good offense for 25 years.  They've been through a lot of number one guys that were at least for a year or two were regarded as "great", even though they really weren't, but because they were featured in that offense. Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Javon Walker, etc.

Ridley can't do everything Julio can do, obviously, but I think he is a very talented player.

I love the Ridley pick. He’s a VERY talented But he’s no Julio and he’s not ready to take that on yet. And there was always a passing of the baton in GB. Never a guy come in alone and just be great. There was a good receiver on the team that he learned from. Even Roddy was no Julio. But also Matt Ryan ain’t Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Meaning Matt ain’t gonna make some of those guys what they were in GB. Also you’re not adding in the element of extending plays and adlibbing the way favre and Rodgers do. That’s not Matt’s game.

 

They made plays AFTER the initial play should’ve already been made but because their receivers didn’t always win the coverage matchup they would extend and the receivers would break off routes. That’s why Aaron has a hard time beating us now. Quinn won’t allow him to get outside the pocket to make plays. Rodgers has never beat a Quinn lead defense yet.

 

Ridley isn’t going to get the respect Julio does and coverage role his way. They’re gonna make him earn that if there’s no Julio. Julio is that once every 10 or so years talent that has the perfect combination of size, speed, and quickness. Also Julio’s blocking ability is under viewed. The way for Ridley to be great is to learn from Julio like all the other greats did. Moss from Carter. TO from Rice. But again all those guys are the once every 10 years guys. I don’t think Ridley is that but he’s good no doubt. Long story short I don’t think fans really understand how much this offense is built around and needs Julio.  

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2 hours ago, OC said:

Nonsense!!! Julio should’ve been the target on that Sanu TD because the board told me he’s only great if he gets touchdowns. That’s the most important metric. Forget how teams play us when he’s on the field, we need stats!!! We got fever and the only prescription is more stats. 

This place will rise like a phoenix once it burns down when Julio gets the new contract

Yea you’re right. I forgot. Matt should’ve forced it to Julio so he’d get a TD stat. Not find the easy matchup because Julio took 2 guys with him. What was I thinking?? Smh 

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9 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

I love the Ridley pick. He’s a VERY talented But he’s no Julio and he’s not ready to take that on yet. And there was always a passing of the baton in GB. Never a guy come in alone and just be great. There was a good receiver on the team that he learned from. Even Roddy was no Julio. But also Matt Ryan ain’t Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Meaning Matt ain’t gonna make some of those guys what they were in GB. Also you’re not adding in the element of extending plays and adlibbing the way favre and Rodgers do. That’s not Matt’s game.

 

They made plays AFTER the initial play should’ve already been made but because their receivers didn’t always win the coverage matchup they would extend and the receivers would break off routes. That’s why Aaron has a hard time beating us now. Quinn won’t allow him to get outside the pocket to make plays. Rodgers has never beat a Quinn lead defense yet.

 

Ridley isn’t going to get the respect Julio does and coverage role his way. They’re gonna make him earn that if there’s no Julio. Julio is that once every 10 or so years talent that has the perfect combination of size, speed, and quickness. Also Julio’s blocking ability is under viewed. The way for Ridley to be great is to learn from Julio like all the other greats did. Moss from Carter. TO from Rice. But again all those guys are the once every 10 years guys. I don’t think Ridley is that but he’s good no doubt. Long story short I don’t think fans really understand how much this offense is built around and needs Julio.  

Its also worth pointing out that despite Aaron Rodgers' greatness, the erosion of that WR corps has led to a pretty marked decrease in statistical performance over the last few seasons. After years of routinely topping 8 YPA, Rodgers has struggled to top 7 the last three seasons. A lot of that has to do with McCarthy running an offense that asks its WRs to "just win" rather than getting schemed open. And as players have underperformed or aged out of viability, the route "winning" hasnt been very plentiful. Rodgers is good enough to remain at/near the top of the league in efficiency, but that has as much to do with his protection and his ability to extend (or take sacks) rather than keep the play on schedule. 

I'm not someone who thinks the offense couldnt operate at a high level without Julio. I think with a little more lead time, we could certainly build an offense that would be productive and effective without him. But to go from that position to a position which suggests that hes overrated or a spare part is woefully misguided. He's an elite game-breaking weapon. He unquestionably raises the ceiling of what this offense can do and he has a magnifying attempt on many of Matt's strengths. When you have a QB who excels at ball placement, giving him a guy capable of running away from/over defenders on any given play is a very very good thing. 

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23 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Its also worth pointing out that despite Aaron Rodgers' greatness, the erosion of that WR corps has led to a pretty marked decrease in statistical performance over the last few seasons. After years of routinely topping 8 YPA, Rodgers has struggled to top 7 the last three seasons. A lot of that has to do with McCarthy running an offense that asks its WRs to "just win" rather than getting schemed open. And as players have underperformed or aged out of viability, the route "winning" hasnt been very plentiful. Rodgers is good enough to remain at/near the top of the league in efficiency, but that has as much to do with his protection and his ability to extend (or take sacks) rather than keep the play on schedule. 

I'm not someone who thinks the offense couldnt operate at a high level without Julio. I think with a little more lead time, we could certainly build an offense that would be productive and effective without him. But to go from that position to a position which suggests that hes overrated or a spare part is woefully misguided. He's an elite game-breaking weapon. He unquestionably raises the ceiling of what this offense can do and he has a magnifying attempt on many of Matt's strengths. When you have a QB who excels at ball placement, giving him a guy capable of running away from/over defenders on any given play is a very very good thing. 

Agree with everything you just said Larry. My argument with the guys that say lets move on without Julio is there’s not enough lead time to just move on without him like you stated because so much of the offensive philosophy is built around him. Certainly we can restructure the offense differently if they saw fit but not during the season. This season to be exact. We’d need lead time like you said. I have no doubt we could perform at a high level without Julio. Even stating that we could still be a playoff team if he missed the season. But how far would we go once in the playoffs without Julio against better defenses that respect Julio and still role coverage to him. Just like I feel we’re still a playoff team if Matt went down with the talent we have. Now how far we’d get in the playoffs without Matt is another thing. 

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