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TDWII’s Pre-Draft Observations & Final Mock v2.0


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Before I reveal my final mock, a few bullet points on direction and overall thought process regarding the Falcons and NFL.

Drafting Philosophy:

    • It’s no secret that the Falcons have one of the better rosters in the NFL now; acquired through shrewd drafting and effective FA signings.  And now we’re starting to see the Falcons have to make significant financial decisions on players.

    • A cadre of young talent will almost come through the financial windfall gates like some type of assembly line in the next 2-3 years (Matthews, Beasley, Jones, Neal, Campbell, Allen, etc), forcing the Falcons during that time to make tough decisions.  And so starting to build contingencies now has become a viable draft strategy, even on Day 1. 

      The Commoditization of the DT:

    • The Falcons do need help at DT…it's sizable hole in their line-up which right now has dressed up DE’s like Crawford/Shelby covering the role

    • There is still a decent amount of veteran FA talent available if necessary though to eat up snaps.  Upshaw and Rubin remain out there.  Others include Karl Klug, Jonathan Hankins, Alan Branch. 

    • This is the second off-season in a row the market for veteran DT’s has been lukewarm.  Only 4 multi-year deals were signed by DT’s this off-season, and only one longer than 3 years (Louteleli). 

    • A player like Ndamukong Suh was released.  Bennie Logan had to settle for a 1-year deal in 2017 @ $8M.  This years 1-year deal?  $4M. 

    • If you look at the average salary cap space teams spend on DT, it’s only $12.4M.  Compare that to CB which stands at $17.1M (38% higher) and you can see how teams are starting to say ‘I need 300-500 snaps out of a particular player’ at this position which also means situational play time, and you can start to see how DT is starting to resemble the king of commoditized positions in the NFL; RB.

      …without further adieu.

      1:26 – Jaire Alexander; CB – Louisville:  Cover corners are a precious metal in the NFL.  Good/solid ones get paid $14-15M/year.  Prince Amukamara signed a 3 year $27M deal.  If you look at the recent contracts signed by Alford and Trufant, both of which are less than 18 months old – they combine for a $22.5M cap hit in 2018 and $23M cap hit in 2019.  I think the Falcons look at that position and right size their financial investment in it based on the production they’ve received.  In my original off-season proposal, I talked about the need to improve the defenses playmaking ability.  Originally I had thought that Ricardo Allen might be a target.  But Allen is likely a better cost investment, and while I’m not enamored with him, I recognize the Falcons seem to be. 

      Alexander profiles as a legit takeaway weapon who could potentially take advantage of the Falcons ability to hurry QB’s and get after the passer.  Alford/Trufant (3 INT’s in 2017) do a solid job of covering and breaking up passes.  But the Falcons need to introduce a more significant playmaking element to their defensive backfield.  And given how big Trufant/Alford's contracts are along with the fact that they've never really developed into consistent playmaking weapons, it's an area for the Falcons where I don't see them getting the value out of both players that their contracts would require.  The opportunity is there in 2019 to get out of Alford's contract without much cap hit ($1.2M) but the Falcons will want to have a plan in place to relieve themselves of it in advance.

      Now the Falcons may need to be creative in finding PT for Alexander Year 1 – can he play the slot?  Is Brian Poole a target?  Don’t know…but I suspect Quinn wants to see at least 15 INT’s this season, not the 20 combined from 2016-2017.

      TRADE: The Falcons trade the #58 & #200 (331.4) picks in the 2018 NFL Draft to the NY Jets in exchange for the #72 & #107 (310) picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

      Rationale: I’m not a big fan of trade downs in mocks.  So I won’t have us come out of the DVC points chart ahead (this has us paying a 7% premium) or acquire more picks.  But in a draft that Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff have both observed that it’s deep along the lines, the Falcons feel comfortable enough to move out of the 2nd round.

      What we’ve also heard about this draft is that picks 20-55 you can argue are the same level of player.  Which makes the #58 pick coveted to a degree insofar as the Jets can jump a level of player to add to their QB they drafted at #3.  Ultimately, I think the positions the Falcons are looking at are stocked with mid-round talent.  They move into a position to capitalize on that.

      3:72 (acquired from NY Jets): PJ Hall; DT – Sam Houston State: The Falcons do HAVE to get a DT in this draft, if not more.  They worked out Hall and he profiles as a faster, potentially stronger Grady Jarrett.  Crazy productive at the FCS level.  The Falcons trade down here because I think there are at least 2-3 prospects they like at the DT position around this stage in the draft. All Hall does is get into the offensive backfield and create havoc.  If he can up his game to transition from FCS to NFL, this is a home run pick.

      3:90 – DaeSean Hamilton; WR – Penn State:  If there has been any player in this draft process that has earned plaudits for the person he is, it’s Hamilton.  The Falcons have historically liked these types of players in the locker room and Hamilton helps the Falcons at a position that is sorely in need of a young talent infusion.  Hamilton’s upside is as a WR2/3, but he has nice size, plays the position like a pro already in terms of route running ability, so he may be able to surprise Year 1 with a veteran QB like Ryan.

      4:107 (acquired from NY Jets) - Jaylen Samuels; RB/FB – NC State: A Jack of all Trades – Master of None type player, the Falcons will see that as a nice foundation to build him up to be the type of player they’ll need.  Likely, that will be a versatile pass catching FB of some sort, but Samuels versatility potentially allows the Falcons to build a ‘unique weapon’ type player.  Perhaps a better version of Jason Snelling.

      4:126 – Tony Adams; C/G – NC State: The Falcons stay within the NC State family by drafting a player who blocked for and along with Samuels.  Adams has a wrestling background.  While he has played C, he’ll likely be shuttled between that and G.  But if Alex Mack goes down, don’t know who snaps the ball to Ryan.  And while Mack has shown little sign of slowdown, it’ll be good to develop a player behind Mack as he is entering the easier years for the Falcons to extricate themselves from his contract if it comes to that.  Couple that with his work in the community, and he feels like a guy the Falcons generally covet.

      7:244 – Foye Oluokun; S/LB - Yale: A late riser in the draft process due to some pretty impressive pro-day numbers. The Falcons attended his pro day.

      Mr. Irrelevant – …it’s irrelevant! ;)

      FAQ:

      Are you drafting Alexander because you think Bryan will be off the boards?  Actually, no. 

    • When you look at Bryan’s profile, Bryan is raw.  I think if he were to come in, the Falcons would take a similar approach to his rookie year that they did with Takk.  350-400 snaps in specified situations.  So the ‘hole’ that he would fill would be partial.  I also feel like there has been sort of this ‘he’s the next best guy at a position of need we’d have access to draft at #26’ element to his draft standing and almost too universal alignment with the Falcons.  There is even a question of whether he truly is a DT or does he profile better at strongside DE?  I don’t necessarily think he’s a square peg in a round hole.  But he isn’t a round peg either.

    • As much as Quinn loves DL, the guys you draft in Round 1 are guys you feel will be franchise building blocks…and as such, worthy of second contracts.  And if you look at Jarrett, Beasley, Takk – the trend is emerging that in the next 3-4 years, we’re going to be dropping a lot of coin on this position ‘locking up our own’.  To the extent that TD/DQ look to spread around their investments in 1st round draft capital, I think if all things are equal, the Falcons look to fill the gaping hole at DT in other ways.  Just a hunch.

    • To the degree front offices do this…the 2019 draft seems to be shaping up as epic regarding DL talent, particularly along the interior.  The DT you get at #26 in 2019 is likely a better player than Bryan.

    • So PJ Hall goes from Sam Houston State to starting for the Falcons?

      Doubtful.  As stated above, there are still options in the veteran FA market the Falcons can look to on low cost deals.  We already saw Bennie Logan take a 50% pay cut.  If you figure you need 4000 snaps out of your DL, the breakdown could look something like this:

      Jarrett: 650
      Takk: 550
      Beasley: 550
      Reed: 400
      Shelby: 400
      Crawford: 350
      Veteran FA: 300
      Hall: 300

      Right there, that’s 3400 snaps.  And that being fairly conservative with our studs (Jarrett played close to 800 last year and Takk/Beasley could potentially add 50-100 more).  Yes, that DT spot isn't going to be sexy or have a high profile talent there.  Even with as much as I like the selection of Hall, he ultimately profiles as a rotational piece even if he over exceeds expectations.  But long term, that's of value to the Falcons and whether he winds up starting now or down the road, if he progresses to a point where he's giving the Falcons 500 quality snaps/season.

       

       

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12 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

I’d be disappointed if the pick is Jaire with either Bryan or Payne on board. He’s a solid backup plan, but I just want to see what DQ could turn Bryan into. The sky is the limit. 

I certainly understand the notion on DT and Bryan specifically.  Since Poe left, I think we see that gaping hole on the DL and feel like we have to fill it with a commiserate talent.  And for the record, if the pick winds up being Bryan...I'd be fine with that.  It does fill a need.

But I also sense that now more than at any time with Quinn, that the Falcons may be taking a long view with their 1st rounder.

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I could be down with this. You’re right, Jaire offers a lot of value but so does a pass rushing DT. The only reasons I’d be okay with going with him in the first are his attitude which is fun and the fact that I like PJ Hall as much as the consensus first round guys. We’d have to add one more rotational DT for me to be comfortable, but I like where your head is at.

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13 minutes ago, Colin_Pernett said:

I could be down with this. You’re right, Jaire offers a lot of value but so does a pass rushing DT. The only reasons I’d be okay with going with him in the first are his attitude which is fun and the fact that I like PJ Hall as much as the consensus first round guys. We’d have to add one more rotational DT for me to be comfortable, but I like where your head is at.

At the end of the day, Alford/Trufant are solid players. I think the long term deal for Alford took us (fans) by surprise a bit, but we needed to sign him to a long term FA deal because we did not have contingencies.  You might say we had Jalen Collins at the time, but given his issues, I think the Falcons in retrospect had some inkling as to what might be coming with him.  For us - this time last year, we thought we had 3 solid guys at CB.  Not now - and for all his warts, Collins actually did have that playmaking mentality when he got the chance to play when Trufant went down.

As for DT, agreed...but that could wind up simply being a snap eater for a particular ability/discipline (2-down run stuffer?).

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TDWII, very nice job of discussing your beliefs and concepts.  I agree with just about everything you wrote.  I normally don't comment on mocks that include trades.  I just think there are too many moving parts to orchestrate.  Having written that, I do want to comment on yours, because I think it is right on target.  

I believe that Quinn is probably in love with Bryan.  I also believe that he will be off the board by our pick.  I think Alexander is the perfect choices because he has extremely well developed short yardage coverage skills.  He looks like a slot CB that can work on his tradition out of the back pedal during his first couple of seasons.  In the interim, he would provide great coverage in nickel packages.  

PJ Hall is a natural pick for us.  I won't comment much, except to say that he looks good to me. 

Tony Adams has become one of my favorite prospects in this draft.  He is quick-footed and strong.  He also has a mean attitude on the field.  I think he could very well be the perfect understudy to Mack.  Nice choice.

Jalen Samuels is a popular choice because he can do so many things for an offense.  The trouble is that he has little experience as a lead blocker........which is a major need for us.   I would prefer to draft a multi-purpose RB, like Hines (if he falls this far).  I think Hines is a much more dangerous weapon as a runner and receiver.  If we can draft Hines in the third, I feel confident that we can draft a real FB in the 7th round.  

Hamilton is another good choice, even if he has pretty average athleticism.  I think he could be an effective possession receiver, as long as he continues to refine his routes.     

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TDWII, very nice job of discussing your beliefs and concepts.  I agree with just about everything you wrote.  I normally don't comment on mocks that include trades.  I just think there are too many moving parts to orchestrate.  Having written that, I do want to comment on yours, because I think it is right on target.  

I believe that Quinn is probably in love with Bryan.  I also believe that he will be off the board by our pick.  I think Alexander is the perfect choices because he has extremely well developed short yardage coverage skills.  He looks like a slot CB that can work on his tradition out of the back pedal during his first couple of seasons.  In the interim, he would provide great coverage in nickel packages.  

PJ Hall is a natural pick for us.  I won't comment much, except to say that he looks good to me. 

Tony Adams has become one of my favorite prospects in this draft.  He is quick-footed and strong.  He also has a mean attitude on the field.  I think he could very well be the perfect understudy to Mack.  Nice choice.

Jalen Samuels is a popular choice because he can do so many things for an offense.  The trouble is that he has little experience as a lead blocker........which is a major need for us.   I would prefer to draft a multi-purpose RB, like Hines (if he falls this far).  I think Hines is a much more dangerous weapon as a runner and receiver.  If we can draft Hines in the third, I feel confident that we can draft a real FB in the 7th round.  

Hamilton is another good choice, even if he has pretty average athleticism.  I think he could be an effective possession receiver, as long as he continues to refine his routes.     

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22 minutes ago, Beef said:

We only have 1 true interior DL on the roster, and 2 5-techs, and your solution is a D2 prospect in the 3rd round and hope we pick up an FA?

Lord I hope that’s not all we do.

I understand the concern - it's valid.  Poe gave us close to 800 snaps and that doesn't take into account what we've lost in Upshaw/Rubin (350 snaps).

Expecting Hall to simply be a like-for-like replacement for Poe would be foolhardy. But I think the same applies to Bryan...so IMO, we're going to have to hit the post draft FA market when we don't get comp pick docked.

We saw how Takk was utilized as a rookie (situationally) and IMO, he was a more finished product that Bryan is coming out of school.  Now does Bryan have a higher ceiling than Hall - of course, that's why he's being mentioned in the 1st round conversation.  But the Falcons still have a DT problem even if Bryan is the guy.

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3 minutes ago, etherdome said:

TDWII, very nice job of discussing your beliefs and concepts.  I agree with just about everything you wrote.  I normally don't comment on mocks that include trades.  I just think there are too many moving parts to orchestrate.  Having written that, I do want to comment on yours, because I think it is right on target.  

I believe that Quinn is probably in love with Bryan.  I also believe that he will be off the board by our pick.  I think Alexander is the perfect choices because he has extremely well developed short yardage coverage skills.  He looks like a slot CB that can work on his tradition out of the back pedal during his first couple of seasons.  In the interim, he would provide great coverage in nickel packages.  

PJ Hall is a natural pick for us.  I won't comment much, except to say that he looks good to me. 

Tony Adams has become one of my favorite prospects in this draft.  He is quick-footed and strong.  He also has a mean attitude on the field.  I think he could very well be the perfect understudy to Mack.  Nice choice.

Jalen Samuels is a popular choice because he can do so many things for an offense.  The trouble is that he has little experience as a lead blocker........which is a major need for us.   I would prefer to draft a multi-purpose RB, like Hines (if he falls this far).  I think Hines is a much more dangerous weapon as a runner and receiver.  If we can draft Hines in the third, I feel confident that we can draft a real FB in the 7th round.  

Hamilton is another good choice, even if he has pretty average athleticism.  I think he could be an effective possession receiver, as long as he continues to refine his routes.     

Appreciate the kudos.

I'll comment on Samuels.  Everybody remembers DiMarco quite fondly.  But recognize that his big two years came under Shanahan.  And when Shanahan went to SF, he signed Kyle Juszczyk to an ungodly contract for a FB.  I think we need to be careful of what value we assign to the traditional FB role now that Shanny is gone and Sark is the OC.

Also on FB's coming out of school...I think it tales awhile for them to be effective at the NFL level.  They need to build play strength as well as angle recognition to lead block against men who are bigger/faster, not college kids.  So I'm not as concerned about finding a traditional lead blocking FB in the draft because even the guys seen as good prospects in this capacity is going to take at least 2 years before you know if he can handle that load.

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45 minutes ago, Beef said:

We only have 1 true interior DL on the roster, and 2 5-techs, and your solution is a D2 prospect in the 3rd round and hope we pick up an FA?

Lord I hope that’s not all we do.

First of all. Sam Houston state is division one. Second of all PJ Hall is a 4 time all American who has the FCS record for tackles for a loss who might be the single most athletic player in the NFL pound for pound. Don’t judge players on what school they went to.

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Just now, TheDirtyWordII said:

I understand the concern - it's valid.  Poe gave us close to 800 snaps and that doesn't take into account what we've lost in Upshaw/Rubin (350 snaps).

Expecting Hall to simply be a like-for-like replacement for Poe would be foolhardy. But I think the same applies to Bryan...so IMO, we're going to have to hit the post draft FA market when we don't get comp pick docked.

We saw how Takk was utilized as a rookie (situationally) and IMO, he was a more finished product that Bryan is coming out of school.  Now does Bryan have a higher ceiling than Hall - of course, that's why he's being mentioned in the 1st round conversation.  But the Falcons still have a DT problem even if Bryan is the guy.

Go pull up Falcons depth chart for past 3 years.  We don’t go into a season without 6 DL’s, excluding our edge rushers. 

2 5-techs, 2 1-techs, 2 3-techs.   And of those 1’s and 3’s, at least 3 of them can play 4i-tech in our Subs, which we’re actually in most of the time.  The 5-techs can also slide inside on Subs like Bear and Nascar. 

Either way, we dress 6 guys on the 46 for these rotations.  We currently only have 3 guys, and 2 of them are 5-techs. 

So my point is, 1 drafted DT and 1 FA DT ain’t gonna cut it.

Bryan would get mostly 4iT snaps in our Sub pkgs.  Whomever the 2nd DT we draft is will likely be bigger bodied and get 1T and 3T snaps in our Base pkg. 

We then need another DT who can play all these positions as a backup who can spell any of these guys when they’re spent or injured.

Crawford and Shelby can’t do that.  They can play 5-tech and some 4iT.  Crawford might be able to play some 3T in a pinch, but not sure we want that as the norm.

We need 1 pass rushing DT specialist, 1 biggun to run stuff, and then a hybrid who can fill in for both.  That’s the issue you’ve not addressed.

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8 minutes ago, Colin_Pernett said:

First of all. Sam Houston state is division one. Second of all PJ Hall is a 4 time all American who has the FCS record for tackles for a loss who might be the single most athletic player in the NFL pound for pound. Don’t judge players on what school they went to.

He racked up much of those tackles as a DE on the outside, and I’m sorry but his competition is one step up from high school 2nd stringers. 

Go to some games at Kennesaw State University and you'll see 260 lb OL’s and you’ll understand.

I know the guy is an athletic freak, but he’s not going to be the next Aaron Donald. 

You guys do this every freaking year.  Bear Woods was going to be Brian Urlacher.  Massaquoi was going to be Dimarcus Ware. Brian Hill was going to take Tevin Coleman’s job.  Duke Riley was going to be Deion Jones 2.0.

Some of you wear insane rose colored glasses and reality destroys them every year.

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Just now, Beef said:

He racked up much of those tackles as a DE on the outside, and I’m sorry but his competition is one step up from high school 2nd stringers. 

Go to some games at Kennesaw State University and you'll see 260 lb OL’s and you’ll understand.

I know the guy is an athletic freak, but he’s not going to be the next Aaron Donald. 

You guys do this every freaking year.  Bear Woods was going to be Brian Urlacher.  Massaquoi was going to be Dimarcus Ware. Brian Hill was going to take Tevin Coleman’s job.  Duke Riley was going to be Deion Jones 2.0.

Some of you wear insane rose colored glasses and reality destroys them every year.

Okay but I didn’t like any of those players you listed. This isn’t rose colored glasses because he’s not on the team. He’s just explosive as **** and exactly what Quinn likes. Alford was from the FCS too and we took him in the second. Citing Level of competition is lazy. Traits matter. 

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4 minutes ago, Beef said:

Go pull up Falcons depth chart for past 3 years.  We don’t go into a season without 6 DL’s, excluding our edge rushers. 

2 5-techs, 2 1-techs, 2 3-techs.   And of those 1’s and 3’s, at least 3 of them can play 4i-tech in our Subs, which we’re actually in most of the time.  The 5-techs can also slide inside on Subs like Bear and Nascar. 

Either way, we dress 6 guys on the 46 for these rotations.  We currently only have 3 guys, and 2 of them are 5-techs. 

So my point is, 1 drafted DT and 1 FA DT ain’t gonna cut it.

Bryan would get mostly 4iT snaps in our Sub pkgs.  Whomever the 2nd DT we draft is will likely be bigger bodied and get 1T and 3T snaps in our Base pkg. 

We then need another DT who can play all these positions as a backup who can spell any of these guys when they’re spent or injured.

Crawford and Shelby can’t do that.  They can play 5-tech and some 4iT.  Crawford might be able to play some 3T in a pinch, but not sure we want that as the norm.

We need 1 pass rushing DT specialist, 1 biggun to run stuff, and then a hybrid who can fill in for both.  That’s the issue you’ve not addressed.

All of your points are valid.  We're thin along the interior - I'm not as schooled on the packages as you are clearly, but given the player acquisition resources we have at our disposal at this point in the off-season, I doubt we come to a well-stocked solution without leaving issues at other parts of the roster.

In your scenario (last line)...

Pass Rush Specialist - Hall.  Legitimate question if he can do the job straight out of SH State.  But on Day 2, you expect him to situationally compete and contribute. 

Run Stuffer - Examples could be Alan Branch/Karl Klug/Jay Bromley...even Johnathan Hankins if his price comes down.  But there are post draft options that are viable that could contribute 300-400 snaps.

Hybrid - TBD...again, with the amount of veteran 1-year talent out there, you could go back to the Rubin/Upshaw route worst case. 

I don't disagree that DT represents an issue that we need to do some solving for this week.  But when you consider the totality of the roster and salary cap implications both present day and coming down the pike, I don't think we should overpay/overdraft for talent @ 26 at a position of need

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7 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

All of your points are valid.  We're thin along the interior - I'm not as schooled on the packages as you are clearly, but given the player acquisition resources we have at our disposal at this point in the off-season, I doubt we come to a well-stocked solution without leaving issues at other parts of the roster.

In your scenario (last line)...

Pass Rush Specialist - Hall.  Legitimate question if he can do the job straight out of SH State.  But on Day 2, you expect him to situationally compete and contribute. 

Run Stuffer - Examples could be Alan Branch/Karl Klug/Jay Bromley...even Johnathan Hankins if his price comes down.  But there are post draft options that are viable that could contribute 300-400 snaps.

Hybrid - TBD...again, with the amount of veteran 1-year talent out there, you could go back to the Rubin/Upshaw route worst case. 

I don't disagree that DT represents an issue that we need to do some solving for this week.  But when you consider the totality of the roster and salary cap implications both present day and coming down the pike, I don't think we should overpay/overdraft for talent @ 26 at a position of need

We met with and worked out 13 DT’s between rounds 1-6.  And that doesn’t even include guys like Hurst, Phillips, Settle, Nnadi, Frazier, Ford, Norton, Green, Richardson, and M. Hill.

This draft is insanely deep at DT. We worked out 13 out of the top 25, and you’re suspecting we only draft 1 total?  Knowing we need at least 3 more and we only have about $4M left to spend in FA?

Its pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point we draft 2 DT’s.

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1 hour ago, Beef said:

We met with and worked out 13 DT’s between rounds 1-6.  And that doesn’t even include guys like Hurst, Phillips, Settle, Nnadi, Frazier, Ford, Norton, Green, Richardson, and M. Hill.

This draft is insanely deep at DT. We worked out 13 out of the top 25, and you’re suspecting we only draft 1 total?  Knowing we need at least 3 more and we only have about $4M left to spend in FA?

Its pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point we draft 2 DT’s.

I think it's a viable observation.  That said, the concentration of DT visits can mean more than just that you point out.

1) Value - a complete and thorough understanding of the relative value of DT's throughout the entire draft, not just on a specific Day.

2) UDFA recruitment - I have seen that the Falcons prospect meetings may be taking on a different slant, as recruitment visits to players that might not get drafted.  Of the list you posted, 3-4 could potentially fall into this category (and 2 - Vea/Payne likely don't make it to #26).

Could we wind up drafting more than 1?  Sure...anything is possible and I wouldn't even say it's unlikely.  But I's also say that the concentration/number of visits and correlating to how many of that position we'll draft is not related, or as related as you believe it to be.  Especially if Bryan is not the pick @ 26.

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1 hour ago, Colin_Pernett said:

Okay but I didn’t like any of those players you listed. This isn’t rose colored glasses because he’s not on the team. He’s just explosive as **** and exactly what Quinn likes. Alford was from the FCS too and we took him in the second. Citing Level of competition is lazy. Traits matter. 

I'm not just citing level of competition.  I watched some of his film.

Have you seen this game against N. Dakota St.?  It's astoundingly unimpressive.  And it's the closest thing to power-5 level competition he's played.  So it makes you wonder if he played power-5 competition if this would be the norm.

I really hate watching this and then thinking we are going to draft this guy in the 3rd round and put all our DT hole hopes into his hands, and then get a couple backup journeymen DT's in FA to pick up the scraps.

I like Hall as a 4th or 5th round selection, and a backup to platoon some snaps in the general rotation.  But NOT as the guy who gets 400-600 snaps as the main starter next to Jarrett.  Maybe he can grow into that, but not day 1.  Please let's not expect the guy playing below to suddenly be a monster in the NFL.

 

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20 minutes ago, Beef said:

I'm not just citing level of competition.  I watched some of his film.

Have you seen this game against N. Dakota St.?  It's astoundingly unimpressive.  And it's the closest thing to power-5 level competition he's played.  So it makes you wonder if he played power-5 competition if this would be the norm.

I really hate watching this and then thinking we are going to draft this guy in the 3rd round and put all our DT hole hopes into this guy's hands, and then get a couple backup journeymen DT's in FA to pick up the scraps.

I like Hall as a 4th or 5th round selection, and a backup to platoon some snaps in the general rotation.  But NOT as the guy who gets 400-600 snaps as the main starter next to Jarrett.  Maybe he can grow into that, but not day 1.  Please let's not expect the guy playing below to suddenly be a monster in the NFL.

 

You’re right. That game was disappointing, but there were a couple flashes of his athleticism which is special. Like elite, top 5 DT In the league as an athlete. And you can see that when he’s at his highs. That’s why he’s one of my top 5 DTs in this class and the player I want the most. 

http://www.patriots.com/video/2018/02/25/college-highlights-pj-hall-dt-sam-houston-state

Now I hate highlight scouting, but you can see how explosive and athletic he is in this video. He’s an outlier athlete.

Edited by Colin_Pernett
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25 minutes ago, Beef said:

I'm not just citing level of competition.  I watched some of his film.

Have you seen this game against N. Dakota St.?  It's astoundingly unimpressive.  And it's the closest thing to power-5 level competition he's played.  So it makes you wonder if he played power-5 competition if this would be the norm.

I really hate watching this and then thinking we are going to draft this guy in the 3rd round and put all our DT hole hopes into this guy's hands, and then get a couple backup journeymen DT's in FA to pick up the scraps.

I like Hall as a 4th or 5th round selection, and a backup to platoon some snaps in the general rotation.  But NOT as the guy who gets 400-600 snaps as the main starter next to Jarrett.  Maybe he can grow into that, but not day 1.  Please let's not expect the guy playing below to suddenly be a monster in the NFL.

 

Question: Assuming the Falcons draft Bryan, his many snaps do you think he plays in 2018?

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5 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:
    • If you look at the average salary cap space teams spend on DT, it’s only $12.4M.  Compare that to CB which stands at $17.1M (38% higher) and you can see how teams are starting to say ‘I need 300-500 snaps out of a particular player’ at this position which also means situational play time, and you can start to see how DT is starting to resemble the king of commoditized positions in the NFL; RB.

I love your whole mock, but especially this bit I've been arguing in others' mocks this weekend. I can rationalize picking Taven Bryan in the 1st because if he pans out as a legit 3-tech he'll play 700 snaps in a season but I just don't get loading up on mid-round DTs. There just aren't that many snaps for those players and good options are still available in free agency. Focus on players who will play more than 300 snaps and you can't easily buy in free agency. 

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40 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Question: Assuming the Falcons draft Bryan, his many snaps do you think he plays in 2018?

In our Base (4-3 Under/Over front), which is typically for run-stopping downs, which we only play about 300 snaps, I don't suspect Bryan would be in much of these.  Maybe 50-100 at most, and likely only in the 3-tech.

In our Sub packages, which we play about 550-600 in Nickel and about 100-150 split between Nascar/Bear/Dime, both our interior DL's lineup in the 4i-tech with edge rushers outside them in the 6, 7, 8 or 9, and the MIKE and WILL covering the inside A-gaps.

This is where Bryan would live, probably getting upwards of 400-450 snaps in Nickel and 50-100 in our other subs.  So probably upwards of 550-600 snaps total between all the schemes.

A bigger bodied DT/NT would likely get 200-250 snaps moving between 1T and 3T (depending if we go Under or Over) in our Base.  They would probably also get 100-150 snaps in Nickel as well.

Edited by Beef
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