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Beef

Beefy Mock 2.0

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1 minute ago, Beef said:

I thought that too because of the meetings with Evans, LVE, Alexander, and Oliver, but my gut is telling me those are all just contingency plans in case our 1st round target DT's didn't fall to us.

Why?  Because we met with very specific type of CB's with 4th round grades and very specific type of LB's with 5th round grades, both of which revolve around not being CB and LB starters, but being CB and LB depth AND... this is a big deal... AND... big time special teams contributors.

Which we are paper thin at.  We signed Bethel because we are so remarkably paper thin on special teams right now.

DJ Reed and Grant Haley are not only CB depth, but they are two of the leading KR/PR'ers in all of college football.  They are also pretty good ballhawks and boundary CB's too.

Dorian O'Daniel and Fred Warner lead their team's in ST tackles.  O'Daniel had something insane like 54 ST tackles in 2017 for Clemson.

 

Duke Riley only got 223 snaps last season.  And he was the full time starting WOLB.  Needless to say, we don't run 3 LB's very often.  Campbell and Jones pretty much cover the SAM/SLB and MIKE/MLB snaps.  Ishmael is a swiss army knife and can do strong or weak side OLB.  ****, I bet he could probably do MLB too.  Dude was racking up tackles when Campbell missed a couple games.  I'm just not sure we have to have an Evans or LVE.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love have them, but if the choice is LVE/Evans+BJ Hill vs Taven Bryan/Da'Ron Payne+Dorian O'Daniel, I think I'm going with Bryan or Payne and O'Daniel.

And same thing at CB.  If the choice is Alexander/Oliver+BJ Hill vs Bryan/Payne+DJ Reed, I'm going to Bryan/Payne+Reed.

So how do you counter all the "BJ Hill" love then?  we have shown more love to BJ than Chubb?   Wouldn't you think the most likely slot to draft BJ Hill is 2nd round?

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

So how do you counter all the "BJ Hill" love then?  we have shown more love to BJ than Chubb?   Wouldn't you think the most likely slot to draft BJ Hill is 2nd round?

We've shown Hill and Chubb about the same amount of attention, actually.  Spoke to both at official Combine interviews, met with both at their Pro Days, and brought both in for private workouts.

I believe Hill is the contingency if we lose out on Bryan and Payne in round one and end up drafting a LB or CB at 26 instead.  Hill SHOULD be there at 58, and he's simply the 3rd option behind Bryan and Payne, but just not good enough to warrant the 26th pick.

If we get Bryan or Payne, I don't think we draft BJ Hill unless he some how drops back to us in maybe the 3rd, which is unlikely.

We have met with Shepherd, Fatukasi, McIntosh, and Hall.  It's a pretty safe bet we're looking to draft another DT in the 3rd or 4th that tends to fit the mold of a NT/1T.  Hill is more of a 3T, which is primarily what Bryan is.  I think Payne can/would play both. (which makes me wonder if he's really our primary target instead of Bryan).

You catch my drift?  BJ Hill is Plan C.  But if we score Bryan or Payne, he's not needed.  One of those guys in the 3rd or 4th fits the remaining NT hole.

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2 hours ago, etherdome said:

I agree that we will probably stay at #26.  I think that there are reasons to interview so many possible first rounders.  Not only do you decide who you will take in the first round, but you have a better comparison with later round prospects.  In other words, after interviewing a prospective first rounder, you may find that a later round prospect offers you the same traits at a lesser price.  

Shoot, they probably ruled out half the guys after meeting them.

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2 hours ago, Beef said:

Freeman keeps getting hurt and missing games here and there.

RB in general is a volatile injury-prone position and Coleman could get hurt.

I can't help absolutely dreading the thought of going into a game with only Coleman+Magee or Freeman+Magee.  Is the term "desperate" really something to split hairs over?

We need a RB, period.  We don't need a bomb on another Brian Hill either.

We went multiple game with just Coleman-Ward and our offense scored 27+ points.  We need WR/TE more than a 3rd string RB. 

Serious question, how many teams have taken a RB in the 2nd round or higher to be their 3rd string RB?

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5 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

We went multiple game with just Coleman-Ward and our offense scored 27+ points.  We need WR/TE more than a 3rd string RB. 

Serious question, how many teams have taken a RB in the 2nd round or higher to be their 3rd string RB?

First, 3rd string RB gets snaps these days. Especially since we have a pair of leading RB's who both have a propensity for injury.

Second, he'd only be a 3rd RB for a season. After that he'd be a part of the starting duo.

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19 minutes ago, rugger8 said:

First, 3rd string RB gets snaps these days. Especially since we have a pair of leading RB's who both have a propensity for injury.

Second, he'd only be a 3rd RB for a season. After that he'd be a part of the starting duo.

1. Our 3rd string RB’s average around 30 carries the last few seasons. Drafting a RB in the 2nd round to get 30 carries makes no sense

2. Only 4 RB’s have been taken in the 2nd round in the last 3 drafts. All of them either started or split carries their rookie year

3. The plan is to resign Coleman. Now that may not happen but it’s to early to tell  exactly what will happen

4. RB is the easiest transition to make out any of position. This is why you see RB’s not going as high as they used to. If Coleman leaves next year then i would draft one HIGH next year 

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12 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

1. Our 3rd string RB’s average around 30 carries the last few seasons. Drafting a RB in the 2nd round to get 30 carries makes no sense

2. Only 4 RB’s have been taken in the 2nd round in the last 3 drafts. All of them either started or split carries their rookie year

3. The plan is to resign Coleman. Now that may not happen but it’s to early to tell  exactly what will happen

4. RB is the easiest transition to make out any of position. This is why you see RB’s not going as high as they used to. If Coleman leaves next year then i would draft one HIGH next year 

We need a RB, period. 

Unless you’re comfortable with Terrence Magee as the backup. 

So the choice is risk another wasted mid-late pick potentially getting another Brian Hill or someone that just can’t replace Teco?

or

Draft a sure thing in the 2nd that would fill the goal line and short yardage snaps, take over with little to no dropoff if one of the two starters gets injured, and who will be able to step in seamlessly next year when we very likely do not re-sign Teco?

 

Simple answer is the sure thing. 

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5 minutes ago, Beef said:

We need a RB, period. 

Unless you’re comfortable with Terrence Magee as the backup. 

So the choice is risk another wasted mid-late pick potentially getting another Brian Hill or someone that just can’t replace Teco?

or

Draft a sure thing in the 2nd that would fill the goal line and short yardage snaps, take over with little to no dropoff if one of the two starters gets injured, and who will be able to step in seamlessly next year when we very likely do not re-sign Teco?

 

Simple answer is the sure thing. 

You're pushing this narrative with a troubling amount of importance that it just doesn't warrant. Is it a need? I guess, if you're accounting for injury. But to we already have one of the best backups in the league. And that can be said about almost any position. Why not get another Center in the 2nd for that matter? Or how about a backup QB? Or one of any of the positions that we have little depth for?.....

Also, there are no sure things in the draft bro....

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6 minutes ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

You're pushing this narrative with a troubling amount of importance that it just doesn't warrant. Is it a need? I guess, if you're accounting for injury. But to we already have one of the best backups in the league. And that can be said about almost any position. Why not get another Center in the 2nd for that matter? Or how about a backup QB? Or one of any of the positions that we have little depth for?.....

Also, there are no sure things in the draft bro....

We’ve done multiple visits and private workouts with 2 2nd round RB’s and 2 4th round RB’s. 

Plus we drafted one last year that busted out, and we’ve signed none in FA.

And our current backup is an absolute no production nobody.

I’m going to take the leap RB is a need.  You’re welcome to not take that logical leap. 

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22 minutes ago, Beef said:

We need a RB, period. 

Unless you’re comfortable with Terrence Magee as the backup. 

So the choice is risk another wasted mid-late pick potentially getting another Brian Hill or someone that just can’t replace Teco?

or

Draft a sure thing in the 2nd that would fill the goal line and short yardage snaps, take over with little to no dropoff if one of the two starters gets injured, and who will be able to step in seamlessly next year when we very likely do not re-sign Teco?

 

Simple answer is the sure thing. 

Hill was signed by the Bengals off of our practice team. It’s not like we cut him. He’d still be on the team if they didn’t pick him up. 

Id have no problem taking a RB in the 4th, 5th (if we trade back), 6th round. I love Ballage. Just think we have multiple other position needs that id rather take in the 2nd round than 3rd string RB.

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26 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

Hill was signed by the Bengals off of our practice team. It’s not like we cut him. He’d still be on the team if they didn’t pick him up. 

Id have no problem taking a RB in the 4th, 5th (if we trade back), 6th round. I love Ballage. Just think we have multiple other position needs that id rather take in the 2nd round than 3rd string RB.

That I agree with. I've done about a million first-pick and fanspeak mocks, and I don't think any of them include me picking a RB in Rd2. But I wouldn't be upset with Chubb by any means.

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2 hours ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

We went multiple game with just Coleman-Ward and our offense scored 27+ points.  We need WR/TE more than a 3rd string RB. 

Serious question, how many teams have taken a RB in the 2nd round or higher to be their 3rd string RB?

If we draft Chubb in the second round, he will not be a 3rd RB.  He will be the #2 and Coleman will be used as the change of pace guy/receiver.  The team will preserve Coleman's health, to the extent that they can so that he will have trade value.  

If Coleman walks away next year, he might fetch a 3rd or 4th rounder in compensatory pick.  If a team's top RB gets injured mid-season, they will gladly trade a 2nd rounder for a RB that can step in and carry the load.  

Though I am not yet prepared to buy into the idea of drafting a RB in the second round, I can certainly see the logic........especially if Chubb can return to his pre-injury playing ability.  

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4 hours ago, Beef said:

I love my Dawgs, but my pick of Chubb is absolutely 100% not some homer fantasy indulgence.  I never do that in my mocks.

This is a very legit and realistic possible pick this time, mostly because TD, Pioli, and Quinn love the guy, used one of their official meetings on him at the Combine, then went to his Pro Day and spent a lot of personal time with him there, and then brought him out to Flowery Branch for yet another in depth workout.

I mean the writing is on the wall.  There is no reason they give someone that much attention just for the heck of it.

They did the same thing with Payne and Bryan, Coutee and Hamilton, Hill, Shepherd, and Hall (sorta), Evans and LVE, O'Daniel and Cichy, Alexander and Reed.

Multiple workouts and interviews/meetings with all these guys.  It has to mean more than just standard due diligence.  Due diligence can be done in a single interview, watching video, and asking their coach about the guy.  You do 2 or 3 meetings and you're targeting those guys, not just doing due diligence.

If they go Chubb this year in round 2 do you think Coleman could be a pawn used on draft night to go up and get maybe a Vea Payne or Bryan?

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56 minutes ago, etherdome said:

If we draft Chubb in the second round, he will not be a 3rd RB.  He will be the #2 and Coleman will be used as the change of pace guy/receiver.  The team will preserve Coleman's health, to the extent that they can so that he will have trade value.  

If Coleman walks away next year, he might fetch a 3rd or 4th rounder in compensatory pick.  If a team's top RB gets injured mid-season, they will gladly trade a 2nd rounder for a RB that can step in and carry the load.  

Though I am not yet prepared to buy into the idea of drafting a RB in the second round, I can certainly see the logic........especially if Chubb can return to his pre-injury playing ability.  

@MSalmon and I have been advocating drafting Chubb and moving Coleman to slot all offseason... similarly to how metcalf was used in Cleveland/Atlanta/Sam Diego 

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14 minutes ago, Vandy said:

@MSalmon and I have been advocating drafting Chubb and moving Coleman to slot all offseason... similarly to how metcalf was used in Cleveland/Atlanta/Sam Diego 

Metcalf was a threat.  Not a bad idea.  

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29 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

If they go Chubb this year in round 2 do you think Coleman could be a pawn used on draft night to go up and get maybe a Vea Payne or Bryan?

I seriously doubt it.

I’m pretty certain at this point that if the DT’s are all gone we’ll pick a LB or CB and then get Hill in the 2nd and a RB in the 4th.

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1 hour ago, Vandy said:

@MSalmon and I have been advocating drafting Chubb and moving Coleman to slot all offseason... similarly to how metcalf was used in Cleveland/Atlanta/Sam Diego 

Yup. 3 backs could work easily. We have put TECO in slot before. Lots of touches to go around. 

 

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17 hours ago, quotemokc said:

Only thing I disagree with is Chubb in the 2nd, we still have Freeman and Coleman so I don't think an RB is the right pick so early.

I would rather someone like Frank Ragnow that can play G and be our backup Center and replacement for Mack in the long term.

Wouldn’t Nick Chubb probably be BPA here?

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12 hours ago, Beef said:

That's possible too.  Our 2nd round pick would move us up as high as 16 (Baltimore).  But our 3rd round pick only gets us up to maybe 20 (Detroit).

However, as I explained, this just doesn't make sense to move up.  If we planned to go up, then why in God's name would we create so many 1st round contingency plans?  We literally have 8 or 9 guys we've scouted, and probably 4 or 5 of them will still be there at 26 or later.  And then we created specific contingencies for each of those positions at later rounds too.  Meaning we need those positions, but because we won't get them in the 1st we plan to get them later.

All the logic says we are picking at 26.

I think the bigger possibility is we are trading back with 58 or 90... or quite possibly even BOTH, with the intent to pick up more picks between the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th.

There's like 6 teams with multiple picks in the 3rd, and Houston has 3 picks in the 3rd.

There's 5 teams with multiple picks in the 4th.

It's is quite possible that we are trading our 2nd for a 3rd and a 4th, and our 3rd for a couple 4ths or a 4th and a 5th.  Jumping back in both rounds could get us 2-3 EXTRA picks overall and only 10 or so spots behind the originals.

Nothing else really explains why we've scouted around 25 players in 9 different positions between 3rd and 5th round grades when we only currently have 2 picks between the 3rd and 4th, and no 5th.

All great guesses. The only thing I am in disagreement with is that a visit, private workout, or some form of scouting means total acceptance of a player. 

That seems to be what your conclusion is when you say “built a contingency plan”

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4 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

All great guesses. The only thing I am in disagreement with is that a visit, private workout, or some form of scouting means total acceptance of a player. 

That seems to be what your conclusion is when you say “built a contingency plan”

I didn't really say that or imply it anywhere.  It's more about the fact we did this multiple meetings with players of the same position and round grade that's the bigger indicator of our likely intention.

Just because we did interviews and private workouts with both DJ Reed and Grant Haley, for instance, doesn't mean we love both of them.  What's telling about this is that both of them have 5th round grades and both are CB's who excel at KR/PR and are not just CB's.

The takeaway from this is that we're probably considering drafting a CB with KR/PR potential somewhere around the 5th to 6th rounds.

No where do I say, "Oh this means we love DJ Reed".  I have no idea if they want this guy or not, but I'm still going to put these guys in my mock in the 6th as options because it seems logical.

Now Nick Chubb is probably a different story, but that's mostly because I have watched every play he made in college and know what he's like and who he is as a person and teammate, and I firmly believe it's impossible to not fall in love with him as a potential pick.

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10 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Agree we are not re-signing Teco - but if you had Teco/Ward for this year - you could punt the "Draft a RB" until 2019.   Just don't see us getting a lot of mileage out of a newly drafted RB in 2018 - so why not wait?

You can probably throw the idea of Ward out because they want to add power to the mix. Neither of Free, Coleman, or Ward offer that consistently or without some form of injury. 

They’re not getting rid of Free or Coleman so Ward is the odd man out. Yes, they could get him back but that’s not doing what they set out to do in the offseason. It’s contradictive of their plans. 

So although he is a good 3rd RB and the Falcons probably agree with you it’s not the type of RB that they are looking for. Now if you mentioned a later draft pick or another free agent RB that fits that mold, then that would be an appropriate counter-argument. 

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2 minutes ago, Beef said:

I didn't really say that or imply it anywhere.  It's more about the fact we did this multiple meetings with players of the same position and round grade that's the bigger indicator of our likely intention.

Just because we did interviews and private workouts with both DJ Reed and Grant Haley, for instance, doesn't mean we love both of them.  What's telling about this is that both of them have 5th round grades and both are CB's who excel at KR/PR and are not just CB's.

The takeaway from this is that we're probably considering drafting a CB with KR/PR potential somewhere around the 5th to 6th rounds.

No where do I say, "Oh this means we love DJ Reed".  I have no idea if they want this guy or not, but I'm still going to put these guys in my mock in the 6th as options because it seems logical.

Now Nick Chubb is probably a different story, but that's mostly because I have watched every play he made in college and know what he's like and who he is as a person and teammate, and I firmly believe it's impossible to not fall in love with him as a potential pick.

That post wasn’t about the players you chose. It was about the logic you came to about how the Falcons are more than likely to stay at 26 or not trade up. 

You essentially said in the post I quoted that because they scouted these different players that they are more likely to stay put. Those scouted players are a contingency plan for if one of the DTs isn’t there. 

I was just simply stating that they may not have liked any of those “contingency plans” which is why they scouted later picks of the same position to fulfill that need. 

We’re all guessing and you did an amazing job with your thought process and mock. I was just challenging the “more likely to stay put at 26” logic. 

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8 hours ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

1. Our 3rd string RB’s average around 30 carries the last few seasons. Drafting a RB in the 2nd round to get 30 carries makes no sense

2. Only 4 RB’s have been taken in the 2nd round in the last 3 drafts. All of them either started or split carries their rookie year

3. The plan is to resign Coleman. Now that may not happen but it’s to early to tell  exactly what will happen

4. RB is the easiest transition to make out any of position. This is why you see RB’s not going as high as they used to. If Coleman leaves next year then i would draft one HIGH next year 

We will have other needs next season.  We will be dealing with multiple contracts that will take cap management like this franchise has never known.  We will have two expensive CB's and two expensive OT's.......and a QB that will take up nearly 17% of the cap space.  Someone will have to go.  

If we can take care of the future of the RB position and do it for a cheap price, then it may be considered a priority for this franchise at this time.  Next draft, we may have to replace a CB or OT.  And let's not forget that both are priority draft positions.    

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55 minutes ago, etherdome said:

We will have other needs next season.  We will be dealing with multiple contracts that will take cap management like this franchise has never known.  We will have two expensive CB's and two expensive OT's.......and a QB that will take up nearly 17% of the cap space.  Someone will have to go.  

If we can take care of the future of the RB position and do it for a cheap price, then it may be considered a priority for this franchise at this time.  Next draft, we may have to replace a CB or OT.  And let's not forget that both are priority draft positions.    

Ryan won't take up 17% of cap space. Cap next year will probably be about 187 mil, that would be a 32 mil cap hit. It will most likely be set up like his last extension, second year of his last extension, his cap hit was 13.2%, 13.2 % of next years cap is $25 mil.

Ryan's last deal was billing as 5 year 100 mil, it was actually a 6 year 113 mil deal. He didn't hit 20 mil until 4th year of the deal, first two years were cheap- 9.6 mil and 17.5 mil.

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