Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Beef

Beefy Mock 2.0

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Beef said:

That's possible too.  Our 2nd round pick would move us up as high as 16 (Baltimore).  But our 3rd round pick only gets us up to maybe 20 (Detroit).

However, as I explained, this just doesn't make sense to move up.  If we planned to go up, then why in God's name would we create so many 1st round contingency plans?  We literally have 8 or 9 guys we've scouted, and probably 4 or 5 of them will still be there at 26 or later.  And then we created specific contingencies for each of those positions at later rounds too.  Meaning we need those positions, but because we won't get them in the 1st we plan to get them later.

All the logic says we are picking at 26.

I think the bigger possibility is we are trading back with 58 or 90... or quite possibly even BOTH, with the intent to pick up more picks between the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th.

There's like 6 teams with multiple picks in the 3rd, and Houston has 3 picks in the 3rd.

There's 5 teams with multiple picks in the 4th.

It's is quite possible that we are trading our 2nd for a 3rd and a 4th, and our 3rd for a couple 4ths or a 4th and a 5th.  Jumping back in both rounds could get us 2-3 EXTRA picks overall and only 10 or so spots behind the originals.

Nothing else really explains why we've scouted around 25 players in 9 different positions between 3rd and 5th round grades when we only currently have 2 picks between the 3rd and 4th, and no 5th.

I agree that we will probably stay at #26.  I think that there are reasons to interview so many possible first rounders.  Not only do you decide who you will take in the first round, but you have a better comparison with later round prospects.  In other words, after interviewing a prospective first rounder, you may find that a later round prospect offers you the same traits at a lesser price.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beef, Good read and I like the effort and the thought.

My only criticism is your first round analysis.  Just because 4 QBs get drafted in top 12 doesn’t mean 2/3 of the top DTs fall to Falcons pick.  If we were picking at #18, I would be inclined to agree with you - at #26? I would say only 50% chance that Bryan falls to us.

I posted in another thread that many anonymous GMs/Scouts think 1st round talent is only 22 players deep and Payne/Bryan are both likely considered in the 22.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Beef said:

We drafted Brian Hill last year and he was a complete bust.

We've also let Terron Ward go.

We have no FB and our 3rd RB is currently Terrence Magee, who has a whopping 17 yards on 5 touches in 3 years in the NFL.

If Freeman goes down again with another concussion, we are down to Tevin Coleman and Terrence Magee.  And Coleman is going to be looking for probably $5-$6M a year after this season.

We are actually in pretty desperate need of another RB.  We do not have FA money for one.  We could maybe bring Ward back, but that's just a stopgap.

There is a definite reason we spent a ton of time with Chubb, also looked at Ronald Jones, and also worked out Kalen Balage and Nyheim Hines.

Quinn and Sark have even both stated in interviews that we are going to see more power running this year.  And to say that and not have a FB or a big RB on the roster just seems... telling.

Based on your definition, I'm not sure you're aware of what "desperate" need is. A third RB in case of injury is not a desperate need. If we plan on trading Coleman in this season, maybe, but not based on what you've stated. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Based on your definition, I'm not sure you're aware of what "desperate" need is. A third RB in case of injury is not a desperate need. If we plan on trading Coleman in this season, maybe, but not based on what you've stated. 

why in the h#LL did we not re-sign Terron Ward?  I thought he was a dayum good #3 RB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

why in the h#LL did we not re-sign Terron Ward?  I thought he was a dayum good #3 RB.

He's still available isn't he? I think that he's a great fall back plan and really allows us to NOT be in desperate need of a RB early like Beef is saying. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Beef, Good read and I like the effort and the thought.

My only criticism is your first round analysis.  Just because 4 QBs get drafted in top 12 doesn’t mean 2/3 of the top DTs fall to Falcons pick.  If we were picking at #18, I would be inclined to agree with you - at #26? I would say only 50% chance that Bryan falls to us.

I posted in another thread that many anonymous GMs/Scouts think 1st round talent is only 22 players deep and Payne/Bryan are both likely considered in the 22.

I hear ya, but that's why I put in the Alternate picks too.

If I were a betting man, though, I'd bet that at least one of Bryan or Payne is still there at 26.

And if they're not, so be it.  We go with LVE, Evans, or Alexander.  The chance of all 5 of those guys being gone is nil.

Then we go Hill in the 2nd and so on.

My gut is telling me we get one of our DT's we've done multiple meetings with at 26, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

why in the h#LL did we not re-sign Terron Ward?  I thought he was a dayum good #3 RB.

Didnt notice we didnt resign him , we will be in the market for a RB, preferably one who returns kicks.  BTW nice mock Beef. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again, really like the mock, and appreciate the work you put into it.  I do think though, that the pattern of interviews and the expected rounds of the players could also indicate a trade up with a 3rd rounder to grab Payne/Bryan and a trade down with the second round to recoup picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Beef said:

I hear ya, but that's why I put in the Alternate picks too.

If I were a betting man, though, I'd bet that at least one of Bryan or Payne is still there at 26.

And if they're not, so be it.  We go with LVE, Evans, or Alexander.  The chance of all 5 of those guys being gone is nil.

Then we go Hill in the 2nd and so on.

My gut is telling me we get one of our DT's we've done multiple meetings with at 26, though.

I hope so.   My dream scenario is to get Payne/Bryan at #26,  take a CB/WR at #60 and circle back around and grab BJ Hill/PJ Hall in the 3rd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, falconidae said:

Again, really like the mock, and appreciate the work you put into it.  I do think though, that the pattern of interviews and the expected rounds of the players could also indicate a trade up with a 3rd rounder to grab Payne/Bryan and a trade down with the second round to recoup picks.

Yeah, I could see the Falcons pulling off another "Trade up in 1st round" (presumably to get Payne/Bryan) and then trade out of 2nd round, get mid 3rd rounder and then either a 4th or a 5th (plus something else) - just like last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Based on your definition, I'm not sure you're aware of what "desperate" need is. A third RB in case of injury is not a desperate need. If we plan on trading Coleman in this season, maybe, but not based on what you've stated. 

Freeman keeps getting hurt and missing games here and there.

RB in general is a volatile injury-prone position and Coleman could get hurt.

I can't help absolutely dreading the thought of going into a game with only Coleman+Magee or Freeman+Magee.  Is the term "desperate" really something to split hairs over?

We need a RB, period.  We don't need a bomb on another Brian Hill either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Beef said:

Freeman keeps getting hurt and missing games here and there.

RB in general is a volatile injury-prone position and Coleman could get hurt.

I can't help absolutely dreading the thought of going into a game with only Coleman+Magee or Freeman+Magee.  Is the term "desperate" really something to split hairs over?

We need a RB, period.  We don't need a bomb on another Brian Hill either.

Has Terron Ward signed w/ another team?  I cannot find this on the internet if he has - Falcons should re-sign Terron Ward asap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Again, really like the mock, and appreciate the work you put into it.  I do think though, that the pattern of interviews and the expected rounds of the players could also indicate a trade up with a 3rd rounder to grab Payne/Bryan and a trade down with the second round to recoup picks.

 

2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Yeah, I could see the Falcons pulling off another "Trade up in 1st round" (presumably to get Payne/Bryan) and then trade out of 2nd round, get mid 3rd rounder and then either a 4th or a 5th (plus something else) - just like last year.

Agree, that's a very real possibility and makes sense too.

I mean we're all just spit-balling here.  I'm just in the "analysis and playing percentages game" (I'm a stock broker/retirement planner/business owner) and this is how my mind works.  Logic vs odds vs our FO historical tendencies vs my gut feelings... etc. etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Yeah, I could see the Falcons pulling off another "Trade up in 1st round" (presumably to get Payne/Bryan) and then trade out of 2nd round, get mid 3rd rounder and then either a 4th or a 5th (plus something else) - just like last year.

My dream scenario is that the 5th QB drops to 26, and that the Giants [#34] and Saints [#27] both want him, if the falcons can move back one slot and get an extra 3rd, and still get the player they want, plus take draft capital away from the Saints, that'd be sweet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

Has Terron Ward signed w/ another team?  I cannot find this on the internet if he has - Falcons should re-sign Terron Ward asap.

It doesn't appear he has.

That said, remember that Quinn and Sark have both said aloud that we intend to install/add to the mix a power run scheme and not just go full boat ZBS this season.  I've seen it in interviews, heard it on the radio, read it I think from DLed or Falcaholic.

It's why we are looking at FB's like Bawden (6'3, 245) who's considered the best blocking FB in college by a good margin, AND RB's like Chubb, Jones, and Balage.

My gut is also telling me we're not re-signing Tevin Coleman after this season and I don't think our FO wants to go into next season with only Freeman and some rookie change of pace back hoping to find another Tevin Coleman that gives instant production.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Beef said:

It doesn't appear he has.

That said, remember that Quinn and Sark have both said aloud that we intend to install/add to the mix a power run scheme and not just go full boat ZBS this season.  I've seen it in interviews, heard it on the radio, read it I think from DLed or Falcaholic.

It's why we are looking at FB's like Bawden (6'3, 245) who's considered the best blocking FB in college by a good margin, AND RB's like Chubb, Jones, and Balage.

My gut is also telling me we're not re-signing Tevin Coleman after this season and I don't think our FO wants to go into next season with only Freeman and some rookie change of pace back hoping to find another Tevin Coleman that gives instant production.

Agree we are not re-signing Teco - but if you had Teco/Ward for this year - you could punt the "Draft a RB" until 2019.   Just don't see us getting a lot of mileage out of a newly drafted RB in 2018 - so why not wait?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Agree we are not re-signing Teco - but if you had Teco/Ward for this year - you could punt the "Draft a RB" until 2019.   Just don't see us getting a lot of mileage out of a newly drafted RB in 2018 - so why not wait?

I just think they see value in taking a RB early this draft and give them a year and some touches to grow into what we need them to be after Coleman leaves.  I don't think they want to draft one early next year and throw him straight into the fire with unrealistic expectations.

And....... again...... Nick Chubb is freaking special and a magnanimous steal at 58 if we can score him there.  He is a SURE THING, and there isn't a lot of those in this sport.  So to possibly get one in the 2nd round is simply something you can't pass up if it happens.

I fear some other GM knows what he is too and is going to jump on him early to mid 2nd.  If that happens, then look at my contingency mock/alt picks.  I'm certain our FO has a plan B, C, D, and E.  All the visits we've had pretty much confirm this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Beef said:

I just think they see value in taking a RB early this draft and give them a year and some touches to grow into what we need them to be after Coleman leaves.  I don't think they want to draft one early next year and throw him straight into the fire with unrealistic expectations.

And....... again...... Nick Chubb is freaking special and a magnanimous steal at 58 if we can score him there.  He is a SURE THING, and there isn't a lot of those in this sport.  So to possibly get one in the 2nd round is simply something you can't pass up if it happens.

I fear some other GM knows what he is too and is going to jump on him early to mid 2nd.  If that happens, then look at my contingency mock/alt picks.  I'm certain our FO has a plan B, C, D, and E.  All the visits we've had pretty much confirm this. 

Being a UGA alum and huge Dawgs fan, I have followed Chubb since he was being recruited out of Cedartown.  He is a great talent and probably even better human being.   

While he is a very good back, I am not sure he is the same back as he was prior to the devastating knee injury in the UT game.   Very, very strong player and won't come down w/ arm tackles.   Where Chubb struggles is his first few steps if he gets quick defensive pressure - he needs a head of steam before all of his talents can be on full display.   This was on full display in the Bama game when Georgia's offense met the Bama defense - Chubb will be running against a Bama defense every week in the NFL. 

 I am just not convinced that Chubb will be a special player in the NFL - and, make no mistake, if you draft a RB in rounds 1-3, the RB needs to be a special player as there are so many bargains to be had in every draft on the 3rd day or as UDFA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Being a UGA alum and huge Dawgs fan, I have followed Chubb since he was being recruited out of Cedartown.  He is a great talent and probably even better human being.   While he is a very good back, I am not sure he is the same back as he was prior to the devastating knee injury in the UT game.   Very, very strong player and won't come down w/ arm tackles.   Where Chubb struggles is his first few steps if he gets quick defensive pressure - he needs a head of steam before all of his talents can be on full display.   I am just not convinced that Chubb will be a special player in the NFL - and, make no mistake, if you draft a RB in rounds 1-3, the RB needs to be a special player as there are so many bargains to be had in every draft on the 3rd day or as UDFA.

I don't know, man.  He's got outstanding soft hands, runs great routes and adjusts to balls in the air, has incredible vision to find holes and lanes, his legs are tree-trunks, he can hurdle guys/jump out the roof, his YAC is insane, he doesn't fumble, he's plenty fast and has a next gear in the open, his lateral agility and bend is off the charts, and he is an excellent blocker.  Not to mention he is just 1000% a TD/Quinn guy.  I don't think the words "me" and "selfish" are in his vocabulary.

If we're about to start doing some power runs and heavy on the inside-zone, he's a perfect fit.

The knee set him back and allowed Sony to catch up and come into his own.  Then it was split touches RBU once Chubb was back to 100% and finally got his confidence fully back.  And Sony absolutely deserved it, so that's not a problem.  But it actually kept some mileage off Chubb, which was good IMO.  The downside is it just made his stats look underwhelming.  But if you look deep at them, they're not.  They're quite extraordinary.

He's going to be a beast in the NFL.  If he can be in a committee system, all the better.  He'll have an 8+ year career then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Beef said:

I don't know, man.  He's got outstanding soft hands, runs great routes and adjusts to balls in the air, has incredible vision to find holes and lanes, his legs are tree-trunks, he can hurdle guys/jump out the roof, his YAC is insane, he doesn't fumble, he's plenty fast and has a next gear in the open, his lateral agility and bend is off the charts, and he is an excellent blocker.  Not to mention he is just 1000% a TD/Quinn guy.  I don't think the words "me" and "selfish" are in his vocabulary.

If we're about to start doing some power runs and heavy on the inside-zone, he's a perfect fit.

The knee set him back and allowed Sony to catch up and come into his own.  Then it was split touches RBU once Chubb was back to 100% and finally got his confidence fully back.  And Sony absolutely deserved it, so that's not a problem.  But it actually kept some mileage off Chubb, which was good IMO.  The downside is it just made his stats look underwhelming.  But if you look deep at them, they're not.  They're quite extraordinary.

He's going to be a beast in the NFL.  If he can be in a committee system, all the better.  He'll have an 8+ year career then.

I hope your right - whether Falcons draft him or another team - I would love to see Chubb have tremendous success in the NFL - even moreso with his hometown Falcons.   I cheer for all dawgs in the NFL - as long as they don't play for the Saints and not on gamedays vs. Falcons.   Had to root against Gurley in the playoffs - LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, quotemokc said:

Only thing I disagree with is Chubb in the 2nd, we still have Freeman and Coleman so I don't think an RB is the right pick so early.

I would rather someone like Frank Ragnow that can play G and be our backup Center and replacement for Mack in the long term.

Mack is an All-Pro and played on a broken leg. His durability is not an issue and we don't need to be using a second round pick on a guy who'd sit on a bench for three years. This just isn't the year to do that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I hope your right - whether Falcons draft him or another team - I would love to see Chubb have tremendous success in the NFL - even moreso with his hometown Falcons.   I cheer for all dawgs in the NFL - as long as they don't play for the Saints and not on gamedays vs. Falcons.   Had to root against Gurley in the playoffs - LOL

I love my Dawgs, but my pick of Chubb is absolutely 100% not some homer fantasy indulgence.  I never do that in my mocks.

This is a very legit and realistic possible pick this time, mostly because TD, Pioli, and Quinn love the guy, used one of their official meetings on him at the Combine, then went to his Pro Day and spent a lot of personal time with him there, and then brought him out to Flowery Branch for yet another in depth workout.

I mean the writing is on the wall.  There is no reason they give someone that much attention just for the heck of it.

They did the same thing with Payne and Bryan, Coutee and Hamilton, Hill, Shepherd, and Hall (sorta), Evans and LVE, O'Daniel and Cichy, Alexander and Reed.

Multiple workouts and interviews/meetings with all these guys.  It has to mean more than just standard due diligence.  Due diligence can be done in a single interview, watching video, and asking their coach about the guy.  You do 2 or 3 meetings and you're targeting those guys, not just doing due diligence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Beef said:

I love my Dawgs, but my pick of Chubb is absolutely 100% not some homer fantasy indulgence.  I never do that in my mocks.

This is a very legit and realistic possible pick this time, mostly because TD, Pioli, and Quinn love the guy, used one of their official meetings on him at the Combine, then went to his Pro Day and spent a lot of personal time with him there, and then brought him out to Flowery Branch for yet another in depth workout.

I mean the writing is on the wall.  There is no reason they give someone that much attention just for the heck of it.

They did the same thing with Payne and Bryan, Coutee and Hamilton, Hill, Shepherd, and Hall (sorta), Evans and LVE, O'Daniel and Cichy, Alexander and Reed.

Multiple workouts and interviews/meetings with all these guys.  It has to mean more than just standard due diligence.  Due diligence can be done in a single interview, watching video, and asking their coach about the guy.  You do 2 or 3 meetings and you're targeting those guys, not just doing due diligence.

I am sure the Falcons like Chubb - and again, there is a lot to like - but you only get 6-7 picks each year and Falcons probably would love to have about 30 guys on the team - and, no doubt, Chubb is one of them.   If RB was one of our top 3 needs, I could see it.   Given how much we have scouted DT/LB/CB - i expect those to be the early picks.   Just my guess - which is worth.....let me check - nothing! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I am sure the Falcons like Chubb - and again, there is a lot to like - but you only get 6-7 picks each year and Falcons probably would love to have about 30 guys on the team - and, no doubt, Chubb is one of them.   If RB was one of our top 3 needs, I could see it.   Given how much we have scouted DT/LB/CB - i expect those to be the early picks.   Just my guess - which is worth.....let me check - nothing! :D

I thought that too because of the meetings with Evans, LVE, Alexander, and Oliver, but my gut is telling me those are all just contingency plans in case our 1st round target DT's didn't fall to us.

Why?  Because we met with very specific type of CB's with 4th round grades and very specific type of LB's with 5th round grades, both of which revolve around not being CB and LB starters, but being CB and LB depth AND... this is a big deal... AND... big time special teams contributors.

Which we are paper thin at.  We signed Bethel because we are so remarkably paper thin on special teams right now.

DJ Reed and Grant Haley are not only CB depth, but they are two of the leading KR/PR'ers in all of college football.  They are also pretty good ballhawks and boundary CB's too.

Dorian O'Daniel and Fred Warner lead their team's in ST tackles.  O'Daniel had something insane like 54 ST tackles in 2017 for Clemson.

 

Duke Riley only got 223 snaps last season.  And he was the full time starting WOLB.  Needless to say, we don't run 3 LB's very often.  Campbell and Jones pretty much cover the SAM/SLB and MIKE/MLB snaps.  Ishmael is a swiss army knife and can do strong or weak side OLB.  ****, I bet he could probably do MLB too.  Dude was racking up tackles when Campbell missed a couple games.  I'm just not sure we have to have an Evans or LVE.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have them, but if the choice is LVE/Evans+BJ Hill vs Taven Bryan/Da'Ron Payne+Dorian O'Daniel, I think I'm going with Bryan or Payne and O'Daniel.

And same thing at CB.  If the choice is Alexander/Oliver+BJ Hill vs Bryan/Payne+DJ Reed, I'm going to Bryan/Payne+Reed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
  • Create New...