Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Beef

Beefy Mock 2.0

Recommended Posts

Okay so the first version of my mock, in retrospect, sucks.  But in my defense, it was made before we had a viable list of prospects the Falcons had met with and worked out, plus all of us were wildly guessing at needs and lost in fantasy land.  Now we have a substantial comprehensive list.  See here: https://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4062443-prospect-meetings-by-position-round/

When analyzing who we've met with, it is easier to see what TD, Pioli, and Quinn are trying to do.  I am now of the firm belief that we are not moving up in the first round and TE is not anywhere close to a priority.  We have simply done way too much due diligence on about 9 players that should fall between 13-30 at either DT, LB, CB, and OL.  They are Vea, Payne, Bryan, LVE, Evans, Alexander, Oliver, McGlinchy, and Miller.  As a result, it makes no sense we would put all this effort into options and contingencies... but then target one guy we have to trade picks away to move up for.

At the same time, we have also done significant due diligence on DT's, CB's, and OL's in the 3rd and 4th rounds, and LB's in the 5th-6th rounds (but remember we don't have a 5th round pick, so we're looking for one of these to be there in the 6th).  Also RB's in the 2nd and 4th, and WR's in the 4th and 7th, and more OL's in the 7th.

QB's and FB's have mostly been late rounds, and TE has been only 3 players total with the only private workout being a 7th round projection.

Last year the Falcons only drafted one player they did not meet with and workout, which was Damontae Kazee. The rest... McKinley, Riley, Harlow, Hill, and Saubert all got private or on-campus independent workouts by Falcons scouts or TD/Pioli/Quinn themselves, plus some were met with at the Combine and pro days.  So it's a safe bet that our draft board is assembled with players we've met with being priority options over players we haven't.

The only time I believe we break from this is when someone we have graded in an earlier round is some how still sitting there at a much much later round position than expected.  Picture Grady Jarrett as an example.  Kazee probably had a 3rd round grade for us, but was still sitting there in the 5th.

 

From analyzing all this, it's pretty clear we have no intention of moving up and are going to make a selection at 26.  DT appears to be priority #1 with LB and CB as the primary backup plan if our target DT's are gone.  OL is like the emergency contingency.  But we've also met with so many OL's with late 3rd/early 4th and 7th round projections that it seems like we are looking to grab one that slides back and gives us a value pick somewhere, rather than making OL an actual priority or need to fill.  Especially since we know we are a solid 2-deep on the OL currently with a competent starting 5, of which we just upgrade RG on an already top ranked OL.  Matthews will get re-signed, and LeVitre should too, both for reasonable contracts after this season.  We are like $80M under the cap for 2019, so the money is going to be there for everyone worthy.  OL isn't a priority or need right now.  No drafted OL is going to start.  So logic says we are only looking at OL in case a tremendous value pick surfaces.  Someone with 2 or 3 round grades higher than they end up actually going.

What also is interesting is the lack of visits with players with 2nd and 3rd round projected grades.  There's really only 5 or 6 players that we've met with that are probably 2nd and 3rd rounders and most of them, as I just explained, are OL's, plus a couple RB's.

You know what this tells me?  I believe it's a very strong indicator that we are looking to trade back with either our 2nd or 3rd (or quite possibly even both), to pick up extra 4th round picks.  There's literally around 15-20 players we've met with that project anywhere from a late 3rd to a late 4th.  3 or 4 from virtually each position of DT, WR, CB, and OL, plus a couple RB's.

Now the kicker to this is the fact that one of those 2nd round projected RB's (Nick Chubb), we have shown considerable interest in.  We spoke to him at the Combine, met him at his Pro Day, and then brought him in for a private workout.  That's an awful lot of attention to someone who is projected to be sitting right there at 58.

 

Now what else I've done is study what the 25 teams in front of us need and might potentially select.  The best sources tend to be local news paper and blog sites with forums just like ours attached to them, that have good volume of people doing mocks.  And local sports writers that actually have access to their teams and give in depth details about their needs and priorities.

From this analysis, it seems like our competition at DT in the first is Miami(11), Washington(13), Seattle (18), Dallas(19), and Detroit(20).

Now IF we didn't have 3 QB's who were probably going in the first 5 picks, and a 4th QB likely going by 12, and a 5th QB quite possibly going by 25, I'd be worried that our top-3 DT's would all be gone.  But what's likely going to happen is, as it does EVERY SINGLE YEAR, QB's will fly off the board instantly, some players nobody thought would make it out of the top-10 are still sitting there around 12-15, some trades will happen among other teams who jump into the 1st to reach for another QB, WR, and maybe a TE..., and ultimately a top target we like will fall right into our lap at 26.

It's quite possible that Allen, Darnold, and Rosen go 1, 2, 3 (or in a different order, but still all 3), Bradley Chubb goes 4, and Saquon Barkley ends up in Denver at 5.  Do you know how badly Indy needs an OL and they very well could get Nelson fall into their lap at 6?  I mean who doesn't look at history and believe this is how the first 6 picks will probably go?

This means Ward, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, Smith, James, and Mayfield are still sitting there and we're already at pick #7.  Miami isn't picking Vea over any of those guys.  So we're now at pick 13 (Washington) and not a single DT has gone off the board yet... until now.  Vita Vea goes to Washington.  Greenbay, Arizona, Baltimore or Chargers?  Nope.  All have significantly different needs than DT.  So we're at Seattle.  Prior to FA they probably needed a DT, but they just signed two FA DT's, plus have 2 2nd year starters/rotation guys in Reed and Nazair.  It's a possibility they go DT, but unlikely.  They have bigger needs on the OL and at DE.  So what about Dallas?  They certainly do have a DT need, but they just let Dez go, and at least one of Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk is surely going to still be sitting there at 19 and they will pounce on whoever it is.  Now Detroit is a toss up.  They need a lot of help at DL and LB.  There is a definite chance they take Payne, Bryan, or Hurst.  What's interesting, however, is they haven't met with Payne or Bryan.  No visits or workouts with them that have been reported.  But they have scouted quite a few mid round DT's and Hurst.  As a result, I have a suspicion they are going with LB or Edge rusher.  After that it's Cincy, Buffalo, NE, Carolina, and Tennessee, and none of them have DT as a priority need.

As a result, I actually think both Payne and Bryan will still be sitting there at our pick 26.  And at the very least, one of them should still be there.

So with all that said, here's my Falcons Mock version 2.0:

1-26: DL Taven Bryan, Florida

Alternate pick: DL Da'Ron Payne, Alabama

If by some chance both are gone, LB Vander-Esch or Evans are next.  If both those guys are gone, then CB Alexander or Oliver are next.  If they're all gone, which would be absurd, OT McGlinchy or Miller would be next.  But I'm tellin you... Bryan and/or Payne will be there.

 

2-58: RB Nick Chubb, Georgia

Alternate pick: DL BJ Hill, NC St.

 

3-90: The Falcons trade pick #90 to the Denver Broncos for picks #106 and #113 of the 4th round.

 

4-106: WR Keke Coutee, Texas Tech

Alternate pick: WR DaeSean Hamilton, Penn St.

 

4-113: DT Nathan Shepherd, Fort Hays St.  (he's probably gone by this pick, but that's fine, Hall is a good contingency)

Alternate pick; DT PJ Hall, Sam Houston St.

Second Alternate (in case we draft BJ Hill at 58): RB Kalen Balage, Arizona St. or RB Nyheim Hines, NC St.

 

4-126: CB/KR/PR DJ Reed, Kansas St.

Alternate pick: CB/KR/PR Grant Haley, Penn St.

 

6-200: LB Dorian O'Daniel, Clemson  (could be gone by this pick too, but if there he's a steal)

Alternate pick: LB Fred Warner, BYU

 

7-244: FB Jaylen Samuels, NC St. (I have a feeling he will be gone by this pick, but if he's there he's a definite take)

Alternate pick: FB Nick Bawden, San Diego St.

 

7-256: TE Tyler Conklin, Central Michigan

Alternate pick: OL Tony Adams, NC St.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only thing I disagree with is Chubb in the 2nd, we still have Freeman and Coleman so I don't think an RB is the right pick so early.

I would rather someone like Frank Ragnow that can play G and be our backup Center and replacement for Mack in the long term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is possibly the most realistic projection I have seen this year.  Beef, I commend you for your effort and clarity.  It is not easy creating a realistic mock.  We all have favorite prospects and it is only natural that we force them into our mocks.  You have taken the visits and logically built a mock that is probably very close to how our FO is thinking.  Very well done.  

What also is interesting is the lack of visits with players with 2nd and 3rd round projected grades.  There's really only 5 or 6 players that we've met with that are probably 2nd and 3rd rounders and most of them, as I just explained, are OL's, plus a couple RB's.

It is also possible that we have not met with many 2nd or 3rd rounders because we plan to use one of those picks to move up in the first round.  It has been TD's MO to move up for a player of desire.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Beef said:

Now what else I've done is study what the 25 teams in front of us need and might potentially select.  The best sources tend to be local news paper and blog sites with forums just like ours attached to them, that have good volume of people doing mocks.  And local sports writers that actually have access to their teams and give in depth details about their needs and priorities.

From this analysis, it seems like our competition at DT in the first is Miami(11), Washington(13), Seattle (18), Dallas(19), and Detroit(20).

Now IF we didn't have 3 QB's who were probably going in the first 5 picks, and a 4th QB likely going by 12, and a 5th QB quite possibly going by 25, I'd be worried that our top-3 DT's would all be gone.  But what's likely going to happen is, as it does EVERY SINGLE YEAR, QB's will fly off the board instantly, some players nobody thought would make it out of the top-10 are still sitting there around 12-15, some trades will happen among other teams who jump into the 1st to reach for another QB, WR, and maybe a TE..., and ultimately a top target we like will fall right into our lap at 26.

It's quite possible that Allen, Darnold, and Rosen go 1, 2, 3 (or in a different order, but still all 3), Bradley Chubb goes 4, and Saquon Barkley ends up in Denver at 5.  Do you know how badly Indy needs an OL and they very well could get Nelson fall into their lap at 6?  I mean who doesn't look at history and believe this is how the first 6 picks will probably go?

This means Ward, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, Smith, James, and Mayfield are still sitting there and we're already at pick #7.  Miami isn't picking Vea over any of those guys.  So we're now at pick 13 (Washington) and not a single DT has gone off the board yet... until now.  Vita Vea goes to Washington.  Greenbay, Arizona, Baltimore or Chargers?  Nope.  All have significantly different needs than DT.  So we're at Seattle.  Prior to FA they probably needed a DT, but Sheldon Richardson is sitting there waiting to be re-signed, and they just signed two FA DT's, plus have 2 2nd year starters/rotation guys in Reed and Nazair.  It's a possibility they go DT, but unlikely.  They have bigger needs on the OL and at DE.  So what about Dallas?  They certainly do have a DT need, but they just let Dez go, and at least one of Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk is surely going to still be sitting there at 19 and they will pounce on whoever it is.  Now Detroit is a toss up.  They need a lot of help at DL and LB.  There is a definite chance they take Payne, Bryan, or Hurst.  What's interesting, however, is they haven't met with Payne or Bryan.  No visits or workouts with them that have been reported.  But they have scouted quite a few mid round DT's and Hurst.  As a result, I have a suspicion they are going with LB or Edge rusher.  After that it's Cincy, Buffalo, NE, Carolina, and Tennessee, and none of them have DT as a priority need.

As a result, I actually think both Payne and Bryan will still be sitting there at our pick 26.  And at the very least, one of them should still be there.

Sheldon Richardson is a Viking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, etherdome said:

This is possibly the most realistic projection I have seen this year.  Beef, I commend you for your effort and clarity.  It is not easy creating a realistic mock.  We all have favorite prospects and it is only natural that we force them into our mocks.  You have taken the visits and logically built a mock that is probably very close to how our FO is thinking.  Very well done.  

What also is interesting is the lack of visits with players with 2nd and 3rd round projected grades.  There's really only 5 or 6 players that we've met with that are probably 2nd and 3rd rounders and most of them, as I just explained, are OL's, plus a couple RB's.

It is also possible that we have not met with many 2nd or 3rd rounders because we plan to use one of those picks to move up in the first round.  It has been TD's MO to move up for a player of desire.  

 

Great point on the strong possibility of trade up.

excellent work the by OP with his mock too, BTW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, etherdome said:

This is possibly the most realistic projection I have seen this year.  Beef, I commend you for your effort and clarity.  It is not easy creating a realistic mock.  We all have favorite prospects and it is only natural that we force them into our mocks.  You have taken the visits and logically built a mock that is probably very close to how our FO is thinking.  Very well done.  

What also is interesting is the lack of visits with players with 2nd and 3rd round projected grades.  There's really only 5 or 6 players that we've met with that are probably 2nd and 3rd rounders and most of them, as I just explained, are OL's, plus a couple RB's.

It is also possible that we have not met with many 2nd or 3rd rounders because we plan to use one of those picks to move up in the first round.  It has been TD's MO to move up for a player of desire.  

 

That's possible too.  Our 2nd round pick would move us up as high as 16 (Baltimore).  But our 3rd round pick only gets us up to maybe 20 (Detroit).

However, as I explained, this just doesn't make sense to move up.  If we planned to go up, then why in God's name would we create so many 1st round contingency plans?  We literally have 8 or 9 guys we've scouted, and probably 4 or 5 of them will still be there at 26 or later.  And then we created specific contingencies for each of those positions at later rounds too.  Meaning we need those positions, but because we won't get them in the 1st we plan to get them later.

All the logic says we are picking at 26.

I think the bigger possibility is we are trading back with 58 or 90... or quite possibly even BOTH, with the intent to pick up more picks between the 3rd, 4th, and maybe even 5th.

There's like 6 teams with multiple picks in the 3rd, and Houston has 3 picks in the 3rd.

There's 5 teams with multiple picks in the 4th.

It's is quite possible that we are trading our 2nd for a 3rd and a 4th, and our 3rd for a couple 4ths or a 4th and a 5th.  Jumping back in both rounds could get us 2-3 EXTRA picks overall and only 10 or so spots behind the originals.

Nothing else really explains why we've scouted around 25 players in 9 different positions between 3rd and 5th round grades when we only currently have 2 picks between the 3rd and 4th, and no 5th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, quotemokc said:

Only thing I disagree with is Chubb in the 2nd, we still have Freeman and Coleman so I don't think an RB is the right pick so early.

I would rather someone like Frank Ragnow that can play G and be our backup Center and replacement for Mack in the long term.

We drafted Brian Hill last year and he was a complete bust.

We've also let Terron Ward go.

We have no FB and our 3rd RB is currently Terrence Magee, who has a whopping 17 yards on 5 touches in 3 years in the NFL.

If Freeman goes down again with another concussion, we are down to Tevin Coleman and Terrence Magee.  And Coleman is going to be looking for probably $5-$6M a year after this season.

We are actually in pretty desperate need of another RB.  We do not have FA money for one.  We could maybe bring Ward back, but that's just a stopgap.

There is a definite reason we spent a ton of time with Chubb, also looked at Ronald Jones, and also worked out Kalen Balage and Nyheim Hines.

Quinn and Sark have even both stated in interviews that we are going to see more power running this year.  And to say that and not have a FB or a big RB on the roster just seems... telling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Beef said:

We drafted Brian Hill last year and he was a complete bust.

We've also let Terron Ward go.

We have no FB and our 3rd RB is currently Terrence Magee, who has a whopping 17 yards on 5 touches in 3 years in the NFL.

If Freeman goes down again with another concussion, we are down to Tevin Coleman and Terrence Magee.  And Coleman is going to be looking for probably $5-$6M a year after this season.

We are actually in pretty desperate need of another RB.  We do not have FA money for one.  We could maybe bring Ward back, but that's just a stopgap.

There is a definite reason we spent a ton of time with Chubb, also looked at Ronald Jones, and also worked out Kalen Balage and Nyheim Hines.

Quinn and Sark have even both stated in interviews that we are going to see more power running this year.  And to say that and not have a FB or a big RB on the roster just seems... telling.

Wouldn’t take a RB in until round 4 maybe round 3. If Coleman leaves then you take a RB high next year. You don’t take a RB that high unless you think he can start this year or at least split carries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great job Beef.  Here's a hypothetical for you:

If both Payne and Bryan are on the board at 26.  If we traded back, how long are they likely to stay on the board?  I have seen mocks that have one of those guys still available in the mid to late 30s, but would love your perspective. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

Wouldn’t take a RB in until round 4 maybe round 3. If Coleman leaves then you take a RB high next year. You don’t take a RB that high unless you think he can start this year or at least split carries.

Pretty certain that Chubb, behind Jaylen Samuels or Nick Bawden, would be our short yardage and goal line go to RB, while also getting some normal snaps in a power formation too.

They may have bigger plans for our early picks next year and don't want to try and replace Coleman's production with a rookie.

Chubb is special.  If not for his knee injury in 2015, he would have been a Heisman candidate puting up insane numbers the last 2 years.  The fact he's a late 2nd/early 3rd round grade is just crazy to anyone who watched him play and knows what he can really do/be.  He would be a steal at 58.

A backfield of Freeman, Coleman, and Chubb just makes me giddy to no end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, AlabamaFalconFan said:

Great job Beef.  Here's a hypothetical for you:

If both Payne and Bryan are on the board at 26.  If we traded back, how long are they likely to stay on the board?  I have seen mocks that have one of those guys still available in the mid to late 30s, but would love your perspective. 

I seriously doubt they would last.  NE at 31 and Cleveland at 33 and 35 are probably scooping them up if they're still there.  Miami is going to be desperate for one too since they probably went someone else at #11, so if they're in the top of the 2nd round, they'd surely be trying to move up.

I just wouldn't take the chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like the mock, appreciate the work put into it.

Disagree with one assumption you made. When you say they've looked at all these players with a 3rd-4th round grade and that indicates a likely trade to gain an extra 4th rounder;that assumes that the Falcons have a 3rd and 4th round grade on them as well.  They may have a completely different grade on them. Neal in 15 comes to mind- people thought of him as a second rounder, Falcons had him as a first rounder .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, quotemokc said:

Only thing I disagree with is Chubb in the 2nd, we still have Freeman and Coleman so I don't think an RB is the right pick so early.

I would rather someone like Frank Ragnow that can play G and be our backup Center and replacement for Mack in the long term.

My thoughts exactly. I would choose Martez Carter as our RB in the later rounds to compete with Ward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Beef said:

We drafted Brian Hill last year and he was a complete bust.

We've also let Terron Ward go.

We have no FB and our 3rd RB is currently Terrence Magee, who has a whopping 17 yards on 5 touches in 3 years in the NFL.

If Freeman goes down again with another concussion, we are down to Tevin Coleman and Terrence Magee.  And Coleman is going to be looking for probably $5-$6M a year after this season.

We are actually in pretty desperate need of another RB.  We do not have FA money for one.  We could maybe bring Ward back, but that's just a stopgap.

There is a definite reason we spent a ton of time with Chubb, also looked at Ronald Jones, and also worked out Kalen Balage and Nyheim Hines.

Quinn and Sark have even both stated in interviews that we are going to see more power running this year.  And to say that and not have a FB or a big RB on the roster just seems... telling.

I didn't know we let Ward go, then we have to have a RB to replace Ward

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
  • Create New...