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Beef

Prospect Meetings by Position & Round

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On 4/17/2018 at 10:16 AM, Beef said:

If they know a certain personnel package in Base is supposed to be exclusively run-stopping, they can recognize this and audible into a pass.  Not good if we’re in this package guessing run. 

And visa-versa.

If they know a certain personnel in Nickel is supposed to be exclusively pin your ears back and rush the passer through the lined up gap, they can recognize this and audible into a run through the empty gaps or run a screen.

It can be exploited when you know what the DL is likely doing on any given play.  It’s why pre-snap reads exist and why audibles are called.

See I slightly disagree with this because you can mix and match our run packages with a mixture of Takk Jarrett and Beasley that'll leave teams guessing.

In your 2nd paragraph again it goes back to down and distance.

To me anything 3rd and 6+,2nd and 7 or 8 as above I mix my personnel up and go and get them.

The whole audible idea can be changed by an offense regardless of the defensive player package the idea again if we are in the favourable down and distance you still go after the QB in my eyes.

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On 4/16/2018 at 6:16 PM, Beef said:

If they know a certain personnel package in Base is supposed to be exclusively run-stopping, they can recognize this and audible into a pass.  Not good if we’re in this package guessing run. 

And visa-versa.

If they know a certain personnel in Nickel is supposed to be exclusively pin your ears back and rush the passer through the lined up gap, they can recognize this and audible into a run through the empty gaps or run a screen.

It can be exploited when you know what the DL is likely doing on any given play.  It’s why pre-snap reads exist and why audibles are called.

I think that makes more sense if the only difference in the sub packages is the DT, which just isn't the case.

Falcons look to see what players the offense sends out, then send in their own sub package, based on down, distance and offense personnel on the field. They rotate 3-4 guys in almost every play based on that. What DT is out there isn't any more of a tell than the other 3-4 players coming in with him. Not telling you anything you don't know, just explaining my thoughts on this.

I can see what you're talking about for individual plays, but if it happens repeatedly, just use a different sub package.

If, for example, the other team can run effectively out of a 3 wide set against the nickel package, keep the rest of the nickel in, pull the pass rushing DT and put the run stuffer back in, rely on Takk, Grady, Beasley & Campbell to provide pass rush when they audible back to a pass.

Be really nice to have, say, a Taven Bryan that comes in and is just a monster against both run and pass, but, if that doesn't happen, then they can mix and match DTs for the situation.

 

 

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1 hour ago, falconidae said:

I think that makes more sense if the only difference in the sub packages is the DT, which just isn't the case.

Falcons look to see what players the offense sends out, then send in their own sub package, based on down, distance and offense personnel on the field. They rotate 3-4 guys in almost every play based on that. What DT is out there isn't any more of a tell than the other 3-4 players coming in with him. Not telling you anything you don't know, just explaining my thoughts on this.

I can see what you're talking about for individual plays, but if it happens repeatedly, just use a different sub package.

If, for example, the other team can run effectively out of a 3 wide set against the nickel package, keep the rest of the nickel in, pull the pass rushing DT and put the run stuffer back in, rely on Takk, Grady, Beasley & Campbell to provide pass rush when they audible back to a pass.

Be really nice to have, say, a Taven Bryan that comes in and is just a monster against both run and pass, but, if that doesn't happen, then they can mix and match DTs for the situation.

I hear ya, but I'm actually most concerned about an offense running on us when we have our pass rushing DT's in really any of our packages.

This defense works against the run because our LB's are free to run unimpeded to ball carriers the vast majority of the time.  OL's are tied up with the DL and often leave our LB's and box DB's totally free.

Poe didn't need to be rotated out because he was both a pass rushing DT and run stuffing DT.  He and/or Grady required double-teams no matter if it were run or pass.  They were/are big-bodied, long-armed, and strong enough they could essentially close the gaps so OL's that were looking to chip and move into the 2nd layer to block an LB or box DB simply had no room or ability to get there.

Is Taven Bryan going to require double-teams?  Is he big enough to help wall off OL's from getting to our secondary?  If not, then teams are going to run his direction, and a guard, center, or tackle on that side that's not tied up is going to chip him and then hit our secondary tacklers, and their RB is going to have a bigger chance at a running hole/lane opening up on that side as a result.

This is why if we have to bring in a "big boy" to be that gap stuffer, it will be a telegraph that can be exploited.  If there is a distinct rotation and personnel package that signals to the other team, hey you have a higher chance of success of running on this DL right now because that guy is in, or you have a higher chance of not getting pressure from this DL right now because that guy is in, I think this is a disadvantage that hurts us.

 

But really who freaking knows, ya know?  We might draft Bryan and he turns out to be dominant at both run stuffing and pass rushing and he helps keep our LB's and box DB's just as clean to run as Poe did.

At this point, we just have to have faith in Quinn, TD, and Pioli.

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Okay so here is the list of guys with 1st through 4th round grades that we have done individual private workouts with according to sourced reports.  If they're not on this list, then it's extremely unlikely at this point that we will pick them in rounds 1-4.

This is per the interview that TD and Quinn just gave where they confirmed they will not pick anyone in rounds 1-4 that they haven't held a private workout/meeting with.

https://www.facebook.com/atlantafalcons/videos/10155655676577842/

The only other possibility is that this list is incomplete and there are additional guys they have worked out that for whatever reason have not been reported or made public.  Which is, of course, a strong possibility that some of their private workouts have not been made public.

That said, if you're creating a mock draft, it's very much recommended you select your first 4 rounds from the list below.  Otherwise you're just going against what TD and Quinn just said they won't do.

1st round:

DL Da’Ron Payne, Alabama
DL Taven Bryan, Florida
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
EDGE Harold Landry, Boston College
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado
OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
OT Kolton Miller, UCLA


2nd round:

WR Dante Pettis, Washington
RB Ronald Jones II, USC
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
DL B.J. Hill, N.C. State
DL Nathan Shepherd, Fort Hays State
OC Frank Ragnow, Arkansas
OG Braden Smith, Auburn


3rd round:

DL P.J. Hall, Sam Houston State
DL Folorunso Fatukasi, Connecticut
OT Tyrell Crosby, Oregon
OT Brandon Parker, North Carolina A&T
OC James Daniel, Iowa
RB Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
RB Nyheim Hines, N.C. State


4th round:

WR Keke Coutee, Texas Tech
WR DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State
WR Deontay Burnett, USC
CB D.J. Reed, Kansas State
CB Grant Haley, Penn State
FB Jaylen Samuels, N.C. State

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14 hours ago, Beef said:

Okay so here is the list of guys with 1st through 4th round grades that we have done individual private workouts with according to sourced reports.  If they're not on this list, then it's extremely unlikely at this point that we will pick them in rounds 1-4.

This is per the interview that TD and Quinn just gave where they confirmed they will not pick anyone in rounds 1-4 that they haven't held a private workout/meeting with.

https://www.facebook.com/atlantafalcons/videos/10155655676577842/

The only other possibility is that this list is incomplete and there are additional guys they have worked out that for whatever reason have not been reported or made public.  Which is, of course, a strong possibility that some of their private workouts have not been made public.

That said, if you're creating a mock draft, it's very much recommended you select your first 4 rounds from the list below.  Otherwise you're just going against what TD and Quinn just said they won't do.

1st round:

DL Da’Ron Payne, Alabama
DL Taven Bryan, Florida
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
EDGE Harold Landry, Boston College
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado
OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
OT Kolton Miller, UCLA


2nd round:

WR Dante Pettis, Washington
RB Ronald Jones II, USC
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
DL B.J. Hill, N.C. State
DL Nathan Shepherd, Fort Hays State
OC Frank Ragnow, Arkansas
OG Braden Smith, Auburn


3rd round:

DL P.J. Hall, Sam Houston State
DL Folorunso Fatukasi, Connecticut
OT Tyrell Crosby, Oregon
OT Brandon Parker, North Carolina A&T
OC James Daniel, Iowa
RB Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
RB Nyheim Hines, N.C. State


4th round:

WR Keke Coutee, Texas Tech
WR DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State
WR Deontay Burnett, USC
CB D.J. Reed, Kansas State
CB Grant Haley, Penn State
FB Jaylen Samuels, N.C. State

I hope some of those names are Falcons and we are jazzed to have them, this time next year.

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So no Shaquem Griffin for us?  :(  I thought this guy had Dan Quinn written all over him.  I understand being hesitant about him, but not even a meeting?  That sucks man.

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40 minutes ago, Krosis said:

So no Shaquem Griffin for us?  :(  I thought this guy had Dan Quinn written all over him.  I understand being hesitant about him, but not even a meeting?  That sucks man.

Don't get to hear about every visit with every prospect.

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If you go by the sheer number of players by position:

We could take a player at any level on D; especially DL of course, & LB or DB.

OL is a possibility on O. While RB and WR have plenty of research done. FB or TE has some due diligence if a pick is worth one.

UDFAs don't count*

I'm expecting: 2 DL, a LB and a DB. So that's as many as 4 defenders. I'm expecting we consider some OL but would be surprised if we got one. If so, that says a lot about how the draft unfolded more so than Atlanta just targeting an OL outright, IMO. However, it is "possible" there is a plan to draft Ryan's cousin and let one of our OTs go to save cap room for 2019. Possible I did say! ;) 

Also, WR and RB seems likely; at least one, as more weapons on offense is a need given the departures of Gabriel/Robinson/Roberts(read dedicated KR might be a WR just saying). On the other hand between draft and FA a capable FB that fits our system's goals and hopefully can catch when called upon. TE is a strange one. Do we look to improve our #3?

We're in a position we don't need a lot of starters but have some holes when it comes to role players (3rd WR, FB, OL future plans, DL depth outside of DT starter, LB/DB depth, short-yardage RB or TeCo heir, etc)

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10 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

If you go by the sheer number of players by position:

We could take a player at any level on D; especially DL of course, & LB or DB.

OL is a possibility on O. While RB and WR have plenty of research done. FB or TE has some due diligence if a pick is worth one.

UDFAs don't count*

I'm expecting: 2 DL, a LB and a DB. So that's as many as 4 defenders. I'm expecting we consider some OL but would be surprised if we got one. If so, that says a lot about how the draft unfolded more so than Atlanta just targeting an OL outright, IMO. However, it is "possible" there is a plan to draft Ryan's cousin and let one of our OTs go to save cap room for 2019. Possible I did say! ;) 

Also, WR and RB seems likely; at least one, as more weapons on offense is a need given the departures of Gabriel/Robinson/Roberts(read dedicated KR might be a WR just saying). On the other hand between draft and FA a capable FB that fits our system's goals and hopefully can catch when called upon. TE is a strange one. Do we look to improve our #3?

We're in a position we don't need a lot of starters but have some holes when it comes to role players (3rd WR, FB, OL future plans, DL depth outside of DT starter, LB/DB depth, short-yardage RB or TeCo heir, etc)

Very good analysis. Teco will not be on the team in 2019. Jerrick McKinnon just got $37 million. Not happening from the Falcons.

I think there are a couple of players outside this list that have potential to sneak into 4th round consideration, but this is good to have for all the folks doing mocks that don’t make sense.

 

We aren’t taking a TE or OL in the first 4 rounds unless we somewhat get screwed in the first round, in which case we drafting to upgrade the OT position and save $$$$ to keep all of our defensive guys.

 

Fans need to face reality, while we will have a huge Amy of cap space in the future, we will not be able to keep all of our guys. There will be 1-2 guys we let walk and draft replacements. It’s turning over the roster and good teams like NE, BAL, PIT, PHI, DEN have been doing this for years

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