vel

NFL Draft 2016 vs 2018

50 posts in this topic

Now that the draft is here, the excitement is getting real. We're all ready to see what DQ and TD do to improve this roster, especially with an eventful FA period. 

But one thing I've been trying to do is find what DQ says and what they means for the draft. This took me back to 2016. If you remember, we had needs at LB, DL, SS, and OG. People were clamoring for guys like Leonard Floyd and Darron Lee in the first. Meanwhile, DQ pivoted and chose Neal, while capitalizing on the depth of the LB pool and getting instant contributors in Debo and Devondre. This was also the draft Blank demanded 3 new starters and DQ delivered. 

The reason I point to 2016 is I think the same thing happens with DT this year, with DQ capitalizing on the depth of the position group and not reaching at #26. He's said it multiple times how much he likes the depth in this DT class. Where we need to look is the positions that are more shallow at a position of need. Back in 2016, there were two SS's: Keanu Neal and Miles Killebrew. At the time, a lot of people thought Neal in the first, at #17 at that, was a sizable reach. Yet, when you look, there were no other SS's to choose from. Meanwhile, the LB position was spilling over and DQ double dipped, when everybody knew we needed LBs. 

I think the same thing is going to happen at DT. There are so many DTs in this draft. I think the key is finding where DQ and TD think the draft is thin but still has impact players. 6'0+ CBs? TEs? WRs? I really believe this is where we go at #26. I think the top four DTs will be off the board, leaving them to find a playmaker at #26. I think this is why they worked out a guy like Isaiah Oliver for example. Why they are using a last minute visit on Rashaan Evans. 

I could very easily see them walk away on Thursday night with a CB/WR/TE and I know longer would be surprised. I think we find a Debo/Devondre happening before the weekend is over. Another think you can hear DQ repeatedly talk about is wanting DTs who penetrate and get upfield pressure. Remember in 2016 when a good amount of people wanted Reggie Ragland? Myself included? He was a run stopping LB from the great Bama program. It was an easy projection after seeing Worrilow repeatedly struggle to stop the run vs anybody. Yet, DQ went and got a sub-230 lb LB in Debo. I think that's the same thing with Daron Payne. I just don't think he's on our board unless they think his game vs UGA can be replicated. I think guys like Bryan, although clueless, and Hurst are more of what he's looking for if there in the first. Mid round guys like Shepherd and Hall are as well. 

I have no clue and could be completely wrong, but I think 2016 is the best comparison for what to expect this draft. As pissed as I was when we drafted Neal, two years later and it makes total sense. 

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Neal was my favorite player in the entire draft that year. I knew for a fact he wouldn't last past the 1st round. I was thrilled when we drafted him. This year I want Payne, but there's no way he lasts that long. So I wouldn't at all mind going Ridley/Gesicki in the 1st. We can land our starting DT in the 2nd, just like we did with our starting MLB in '16. 

Tim Mazetti, Stryka and Dirtybird56 like this

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Im with you on CB/WR/TE add FS to the list.. but yeah I think we are going BPA in a impact position in the first round..

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This is actually my hope.

I'd like WR/TE in the 1st and DT in the 2nd (and probably again in the 4th).

TE then DT then WR then DT then LB would be a great draft to me.  I'd like another LB and secondary earlier but I think we're better off at those spots and with youth than we are at pass catcher.  Pass catchers and DTs would be a good theme.

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Vel I was thinking something very similar last week.

Going DT with the 3 and 4 rounders.I think we can still get a Justin Jones Nathan Shepard type of DT at that point.

Opens up a Christian Kirk Mike Gesiecki Nick Chubb LVE type of picks with the first 2 rounds.

What I'm actually hoping for is a run on certain positions and someone good falls into our laps.

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I totally get OP's line of logic and I think its persuasive. However, drafting a WR/TE/CB in the first round and expecting a significant first-year impact is a pretty bad idea, IMO. That doesnt mean we can't touch those positions early, it means we need to be realistic about how that is likely to play out. 

 

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4QBs, 2OL, 2S, 3DTs, 2LBs, 2DEs are going before #26, so start looking at the available talent after that and you can start to see who falls in our lap if there is a run on a position group.

 

Dont rule out Kolton Miller....

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When Quinn's Seahawks won the Super Bowl, his DTs were an UDFA, a 7th rounder and a 3rd rounder. He may not think you have to spend a lot of draft capital to get a good DT.

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It kind of reminds me of the 2008 draft. Many people thought we can take a DT, a position of need at the time, early and just grab any QB later. In this year's situation why not take the best DT available early and fill other spots later. That's our biggest need just like Ryan was in 08. I know the DT position isn't as important as QB, but for this team in 2017, DT should be the BPA unless there isn't a top guy at #26.

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5 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I totally get OP's line of logic and I think its persuasive. However, drafting a WR/TE/CB in the first round and expecting a significant first-year impact is a pretty bad idea, IMO. That doesnt mean we can't touch those positions early, it means we need to be realistic about how that is likely to play out. 

 

How would expecting a year one impact from a guy like DJ Moore, Mike Gesicki, or Isaiah Oliver be a bad idea? We'd improve our offensive attack with guys Sark prefers or adding a potentially shut down corner as a third corner. 

Not saying it will happen, but it's clear DQ is looking to add a playmaker at #26 and not just settle for somebody. With the addition of Fusco, I think that leaves out OL, QB, RB, LB, and S considering the players at those positions. 

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6 hours ago, falconidae said:

When Quinn's Seahawks won the Super Bowl, his DTs were an UDFA, a 7th rounder and a 3rd rounder. He may not think you have to spend a lot of draft capital to get a good DT.

I have been thinking this same thing. Put me down for the TE.

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1 hour ago, vel said:

How would expecting a year one impact from a guy like DJ Moore, Mike Gesicki, or Isaiah Oliver be a bad idea? We'd improve our offensive attack with guys Sark prefers or adding a potentially shut down corner as a third corner. 

Not saying it will happen, but it's clear DQ is looking to add a playmaker at #26 and not just settle for somebody. With the addition of Fusco, I think that leaves out OL, QB, RB, LB, and S considering the players at those positions. 

Agreed. And It’s not a bad idea, you’ll probably get more “year 1 impact” out of those guys than you would a DL  project like Bryan or hurst, and certainly more than you should expect out of a Shepherd (who I like for us as well) or Hall. 

Of course, the draft isn’t just about year 1...,..and we have a huge hole in middle of defense replacing D Poe’s production from last year. It will be interesting how falcons approach fixing it. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

Agreed. And It’s not a bad idea, you’ll probably get more “year 1 impact” out of those guys than you would a DL  project like Bryan or hurst, and certainly more than you should expect out of a Shepherd (who I like for us as well) or Hall. 

Of course, the draft isn’t just about year 1...,..and we have a huge hole in middle of defense replacing D Poe’s production from last year. It will be interesting how falcons approach fixing it. 

That's where I'm at. If Vea, Payne, Hurst, and Bryan are gone, they aren't reaching for a DT. At that point, who's the best playmaker on the board and take them. 

Tim Mazetti, Vandy and kiwifalcon like this

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On 4/5/2018 at 1:57 PM, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I totally get OP's line of logic and I think its persuasive. However, drafting a WR/TE/CB in the first round and expecting a significant first-year impact is a pretty bad idea, IMO. That doesnt mean we can't touch those positions early, it means we need to be realistic about how that is likely to play out. 

 

Think Ridley is the best equipped WR to come in and contribute immediately.

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On 4/4/2018 at 11:16 PM, vel said:

Now that the draft is here, the excitement is getting real. We're all ready to see what DQ and TD do to improve this roster, especially with an eventful FA period. 

DAMM, man, well done analyses.

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On 4/5/2018 at 11:27 PM, vel said:

That's where I'm at. If Vea, Payne, Hurst, and Bryan are gone, they aren't reaching for a DT. At that point, who's the best playmaker on the board and take them. 

Done.

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On 4/5/2018 at 6:41 PM, vel said:

How would expecting a year one impact from a guy like DJ Moore, Mike Gesicki, or Isaiah Oliver be a bad idea? We'd improve our offensive attack with guys Sark prefers or adding a potentially shut down corner as a third corner. 

Not saying it will happen, but it's clear DQ is looking to add a playmaker at #26 and not just settle for somebody. With the addition of Fusco, I think that leaves out OL, QB, RB, LB, and S considering the players at those positions. 

Dang called Oliver. I never thought he would be there at #58. Ridley instead of Moore. 

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On 4/6/2018 at 3:27 PM, vel said:

That's where I'm at. If Vea, Payne, Hurst, and Bryan are gone, they aren't reaching for a DT. At that point, who's the best playmaker on the board and take them. 

That's pretty much how this drafted has panned out for us.

Ergo Proxy likes this

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21 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I hope so, man. I really do. 

He runs great routes, and apparently, the whole route tree, that's what most WRs struggle with early in their careers.

Also think that practicing against Tru and Alford will help and that being on the field with Julio, Sanu and Hoop will help as well.

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9 minutes ago, falconidae said:

He runs great routes, and apparently, the whole route tree, that's what most WRs struggle with early in their careers.

Also think that practicing against Tru and Alford will help and that being on the field with Julio, Sanu and Hoop will help as well.

He's a talented player that pretty much everybody was high on. And he should come in and be able to provide us with another quality YAC weapon capable of working insider and out. That's good. 

The testing scares me. That being said, Dalvin Cook was equally scary from an athletic profile perspective last year. And he was fantastic once he hit the field. So here's to hoping thats the case here. 

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