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So now DQ is saying Matt Ryan's new contract is not the top priority...


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12 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Not the point, they did the same thing when they were 33 that Ryan is doing now, they didn't start taking discounts until they were in their late 30s.

And Ryan has better numbers than either one of them at the same point in their careers, he's on pace for 60,000 yards and 400 TDs himself, first ballot HOF numbers, he's a really ### good QB in his own right.

And yes, Ryan does deserve it, he's one of the best QBs  playing today and it's just the way the game is played. Hate the game not the player, be great for him to take a discount, that's just not realistic. What is realistic is having a cap friendly contract. What I'd love to see is a 10-15 mil roster bonus for the 5th year, keeps the earlier cap hits down, in 4 years, you either restructure or cut him.

Ryan's contract is not going to cripple the team.  Look at his last contract, it was 20 mil a year, cap hit wasn't 20 mil until 4th year, first year cap hit was 9.6 mil, it made him the highest paid for about 30 minutes, he's now the 14th highest paid player. This contract will be the same way.

Numbers are larger because the cap is larger. 20 mil of the 2012 cap was 16.6% of the cap. 30 mil of the 2018 cap is 16.9%. [Ryan's cap hit was never 16.6%] that .3% is not going to cripple the team.

Matt Ryan was never really the highest paid player, that was just fun with numbers. What Ryan really signed in 2013 was a 6 year 113.75 mil contract, an average of 18.75 mil, that paid him out 63 mil in the first three years.  That deal was easier because it was a very safe bet that Matt was going to be worth the money in years 4, 5, and 6, when his actual salary averaged less than 17 mil per year.

This time around it's not easy to say that Matt is going to be worth 27 - 30 mil per year in years 4, 5, and 6, and there is no reason for the Falcons to give him a Cousins style 3 year contract for 28+ mil a year when Ryan is under contract for 19.25 mil this year and the tag will be less than 28 mil next year.  What would be the point?

So I can see why we don't have a deal yet and I wouldn't be surprised if there is no deal before the season starts.

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8 minutes ago, Peyton said:

Matt Ryan was never really the highest paid player, that was just fun with numbers. What Ryan really signed in 2013 was a 6 year 113.75 mil contract, an average of 18.75 mil, that paid him out 63 mil in the first three years.  That deal was easier because it was a very safe bet that Matt was going to be worth the money in years 4, 5, and 6, when his actual salary averaged less than 17 mil per year.

This time around it's not easy to say that Matt is going to be worth 27 - 30 mil per year in years 4, 5, and 6, and there is no reason for the Falcons to give him a Cousins style 3 year contract for 28+ mil a year when Ryan is under contract for 19.25 mil this year and the tag will be less than 28 mil next year.  What would be the point?

So I can see why we don't have a deal yet and I wouldn't be surprised if there is no deal before the season starts.

May be more risk this time around, still a lot less risk than moving on from Ryan and finding another QB.

This next deal is also just fun with numbers, just bigger numbers. I'd like the contract set up with a fairly easy out after 4 years myself. Falcons could have cut Ryan after year 4 of this deal for 10 mil dead money, that's a lot, but doable if needed. Can do the same with this deal.

The point is, you could have another 15+ mil in cap space freed up next 2 years by signing Ryan long term, instead of 19 and 28, could be 10 and 20, that's a lot more talent you can surround him with while he's in his prime. Also much easier to get a cap friendly contract-  part of the reason that  the Ravens and Saints got screwed with their QB deals is because they waited until the last minute.

And 30 mil in year four of the extension will look like a bargain when, say,  Mariotta and Winston are making 33 a year.

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5 minutes ago, falconidae said:

This next deal is also just fun with numbers, just bigger numbers. I'd like the contract set up with a fairly easy out after 4 years myself. Falcons could have cut Ryan after year 4 of this deal for 10 mil dead money, that's a lot, but doable if needed. Can do the same with this deal.

The point is, you could have another 15+ mil in cap space freed up next 2 years by signing Ryan long term, instead of 19 and 28, could be 10 and 20, that's a lot more talent you can surround him with while he's in his prime. Also much easier to get a cap friendly contract-  part of the reason that  the Ravens and Saints got screwed with their QB deals is because they waited until the last minute.

And 30 mil in year four of the extension will look like a bargain when, say,  Mariotta and Winston are making 33 a year.

But see that is where the Cousins deal is a problem.  It's not fun with numbers. It is a stone cold 28 mil per year contract with no funny money and no back years to push the bonus money.  If Condon is looking for something similar to that then Matt will not be getting a contract until next year and he might be tagged.

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3 minutes ago, Peyton said:

But see that is where the Cousins deal is a problem.  It's not fun with numbers. It is a stone cold 28 mil per year contract with no funny money and no back years to push the bonus money.  If Condon is looking for something similar to that then Matt will not be getting a contract until next year and he might be tagged.

Why would Condon want that?  Falcons can give Ryan more guaranteed money just structured in a different way.  If the Falcons give Ryan, say,  a 60 mil signing bonus and 30 mil of guaranteed salary the first three years, why would he possibly care?

 

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6 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Why would Condon want that?  Falcons can give Ryan more guaranteed money just structured in a different way.  If the Falcons give Ryan, say,  a 60 mil signing bonus and 30 mil of guaranteed salary the first three years, why would he possibly care?

I can't imagine why the Falcons would do that right now with him under contract for 19.25 mil.  Maybe next year.

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4 minutes ago, Peyton said:

And you've have to show me how the Falcons could give Ryan 30 mil a year and have cap hits of 10 and 20 in the next two years.  That would be setting the Falcons up for cap Armageddon down the road.

The way I'd do it is by putting a very large roster bonus in the fifth year.

You're right, those numbers are too low, was just throwing numbers out as an example, wasn't doing any calculations to get there, you could still save several million in cap space.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Peyton said:

I can't imagine why the Falcons would do that right now with him under contract for 19.25 mil.  Maybe next year.

Because it's just more expensive to do it next year and gives them greater cap flexibility. Because there's just no better option for them at QB next 3-4 years. Because they don't want to be in Baltimore's situation with Flacco after the Super Bowl win. 

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On 3/29/2018 at 3:14 PM, g-dawg said:

1 & 2)  Drew Brees stats in 2016/2017 seasons are better than both Brady and Rodgers - so right out of the gate, Strike ONE,  Strike TWO

3) As to this point, the Saints were in no position to "franchise" Drew Brees due to their cap situation.  In 2013/Matt and Rodgers - both teams could easily control the player so neither had the opportunity to test free agency.    Drew Brees was a LIVE free agent when the new league year began.   Strike THREE.

wut?

You seem to be continuing on about this as though it's absent any sort of context. Which is strange given the circumstance... 

Also, lol @ "Drew Brees' stats" being better than Brady/Rodgers. Okay man. Have fun with that. 

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31 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Because it's just more expensive to do it next year and gives them greater cap flexibility. Because there's just no better option for them at QB next 3-4 years. Because they don't want to be in Baltimore's situation with Flacco after the Super Bowl win. 

I got to be honest with you.  I think if I sat down with Condon, Blank, Matt, and TD I could help them work this out in about 10 minutes.

"Matt we have such tremendous respect for you that we are going to make you the highest paid QB in NFL history with a 28.5 mil per year 6 year extension.  6 years - 171 million.  We are going to give you a signing bonus of 57.5 mil, largest in history, and an option bonus in year 2 of $20 million.  Starting in year 3 you will have a 4 million dollar roster bonus each year and the first year will be guaranteed.  Total guaranteed money in the first three years will be 93.25 mil....because we love you son."

"TD, combined with the 19.25 mil and 2.4 mil in dead money this total value is 7 years, 192.65 mil.  We will prorate the signing bonus at 11.5 per for years 1-5, and the option bonus at 4 per for years 2-6.  The 2.4 in dead bonus will of course be added in year 1.  The salaries will be 1, 3.25, 7.5, 12, 13, 27, and 29.  The cap hits will be as such.

2018 - 14.9

2019 - 18.75

2020 - 27

2021 - 31.5

2022 - 32.5 (19.5 dead money if cut)

2023 - 35 (4 mil dead money if cut)

2024 - 33

Let's try and get this paperwork into the league office by noon so we can make our 1pm tee time"

"Matt, it's great doing business with you, and we are so glad you will be finishing your career as a Falcon.

Now which side would this be a bad deal for?

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13 minutes ago, Peyton said:

I got to be honest with you.  I think if I sat down with Condon, Blank, Matt, and TD I could help them work this out in about 10 minutes.

"Matt we have such tremendous respect for you that we are going to make you the highest paid QB in NFL history with a 28.5 mil per year 6 year extension.  6 years - 171 million.  We are going to give you a signing bonus of 57.5 mil, largest in history, and an option bonus in year 2 of $20 million.  Starting in year 3 you will have a 4 million dollar roster bonus each year and the first year will be guaranteed.  Total guaranteed money in the first three years will be 93.25 mil....because we love you son."

"TD, combined with the 19.25 mil and 2.4 mil in dead money this total value is 7 years, 192.65 mil.  We will prorate the signing bonus at 11.5 per for years 1-5, and the option bonus at 4 per for years 2-6.  The 2.4 in dead bonus will of course be added in year 1.  The salaries will be 1, 3.25, 7.5, 12, 13, 27, and 29.  The cap hits will be as such.

2018 - 14.9

2019 - 18.75

2020 - 27

2021 - 31.5

2022 - 32.5 (19.5 dead money if cut)

2023 - 35 (4 mil dead money if cut)

2024 - 33

Let's try and get this paperwork into the league office by noon so we can make our 1pm tee time"

"Matt, it's great doing business with you, and we are so glad you will be finishing your career as a Falcon.

Now which side would this be a bad deal for?

I don’t think working this stuff is the problem, it’s media and fans. They will most likely get it done by training camp just like last extension. It’s gonna raise all kinds of red flags if the deal isn’t done by first week of training camp.

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1 hour ago, Mega Flare said:

No matter what happens, people are going to be wiping their butts with $100 bills while fans pay out the @ss for tickets.  The price of sports is getting ridiculous.

Your right, for all the people saying pay the man don't seem to realize the over all cost factor. Attendance has been on the decline for the past few years and the cost may be partly to blame among other things. Still very reasonable on TV.

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3 hours ago, Peyton said:

Ok....but Tom Brady is the greatest QB of all time. 

Drew Brees has led the league in passing 6 times, led the league in passing TDs 5 times, led the league in completion percentage 4 times, has 11 Pro Bowls, he's the two-time NFL Offensive player of the year, won Comeback Player of the Year, won NFC Player of the Week 22 times, and sometime early next year he will become the NFL's all time leading passer.

Just because those two players were once given the largest contracts in NFL history doesn't mean that Matt Ryan deserves to be given the largest contract in history. He's great but he's not as good as them.

But this isnt how it works. We can argue about whether it should or shouldnt be how it works, but reality is what it is. And reality dictates that QB contracts grow over time, almost regardless of who is signing the deal. If you fit the "lets extend this QB" rubric, you get the biggest dollars. Which is why Derek Carr was the highest paid player. And Matt Stafford. And Jimmy G. And now Cousins. 

There's also a bit of a qualifier you need to put on Brees here. Yes, his statistics are fantastic. And he's a Top 15 all time QB, with an argument to be closer to ~7 than 15. But a lot of this statistical performance is based on volume. He's thrown the ball soooo many times more than other QBs. Since 2008, He's got ~two seasons worth of attempts over pretty much every other QB in the league. If you control for sheer volume, Phillip Rivers is right there with him on pretty much every statistical measure. 

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12 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

But this isnt how it works. We can argue about whether it should or shouldnt be how it works, but reality is what it is. And reality dictates that QB contracts grow over time, almost regardless of who is signing the deal. If you fit the "lets extend this QB" rubric, you get the biggest dollars. Which is why Derek Carr was the highest paid player. And Matt Stafford. And Jimmy G. And now Cousins. 

There's also a bit of a qualifier you need to put on Brees here. Yes, his statistics are fantastic. And he's a Top 15 all time QB, with an argument to be closer to ~7 than 15. But a lot of this statistical performance is based on volume. He's thrown the ball soooo many times more than other QBs. Since 2008, He's got ~two seasons worth of attempts over pretty much every other QB in the league. If you control for sheer volume, Phillip Rivers is right there with him on pretty much every statistical measure. 

There are so many different ways to look at QB play and come up with different conclusions, so yes, I get the volume argument.  However, you can strip out the volume argument by just looking at points per drive.  In Drew Brees 12 years in New Orleans:

1st twice

2nd three times

3rd once

4th once

5th twice

6th once

7th once

10th once

Brees has kept his offense at basically elite for 12 years running.  It's a short list of QBs that have done that.

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2 hours ago, Peyton said:

I got to be honest with you.  I think if I sat down with Condon, Blank, Matt, and TD I could help them work this out in about 10 minutes.

"Matt we have such tremendous respect for you that we are going to make you the highest paid QB in NFL history with a 28.5 mil per year 6 year extension.  6 years - 171 million.  We are going to give you a signing bonus of 57.5 mil, largest in history, and an option bonus in year 2 of $20 million.  Starting in year 3 you will have a 4 million dollar roster bonus each year and the first year will be guaranteed.  Total guaranteed money in the first three years will be 93.25 mil....because we love you son."

"TD, combined with the 19.25 mil and 2.4 mil in dead money this total value is 7 years, 192.65 mil.  We will prorate the signing bonus at 11.5 per for years 1-5, and the option bonus at 4 per for years 2-6.  The 2.4 in dead bonus will of course be added in year 1.  The salaries will be 1, 3.25, 7.5, 12, 13, 27, and 29.  The cap hits will be as such.

2018 - 14.9

2019 - 18.75

2020 - 27

2021 - 31.5

2022 - 32.5 (19.5 dead money if cut)

2023 - 35 (4 mil dead money if cut)

2024 - 33

Let's try and get this paperwork into the league office by noon so we can make our 1pm tee time"

"Matt, it's great doing business with you, and we are so glad you will be finishing your career as a Falcon.

Now which side would this be a bad deal for?

That's actually about where I expect it to come in at, except maybe a bit on the high side.

That deal would be announced as 5 years, ~$150 million since that's the new money as an extension of the 1 year, $21.6 m he's under contract for.

So yeah, I think it will be announced as a $29-$30 mil a year deal, but effectively will be $27-28ish overall since it's an extension.

 

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1 minute ago, PK Manley said:

That's actually about where I expect it to come in at, except maybe a bit on the high side.

That deal would be announced as 5 years, ~$150 million since that's the new money as an extension of the 1 year, $21.6 m he's under contract for.

So yeah, I think it will be announced as a $29-$30 mil a year deal, but effectively will be $27-28ish overall since it's an extension.

 

The deal I structured is a 6 year 171 mil extension.  28.5 per year.

When added to the existing year it actually would be 7 years 190.25 mil.  A smidge over 27 mil a year.  The other 2.4 mil is dead bonus that has to be carried forward.

No way to paint this as the first 30 mil contract, but I don't think the Falcons should feel compelled to have to do that. Giving him +90 mil in the first 3 years and letting him claim to be the highest paid player in the league until Rodgers signs a deal should suffice.

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3 minutes ago, Peyton said:

The deal I structured is a 6 year 171 mil extension.  28.5 per year.

When added to the existing year it actually would be 7 years 190.25 mil.  A smidge over 27 mil a year.  The other 2.4 mil is dead bonus that has to be carried forward.

No way to paint this as the first 30 mil contract, but I don't think the Falcons should feel compelled to have to do that. Giving him +90 mil in the first 3 years and letting him claim to be the highest paid player in the league until Rodgers signs a deal should suffice.

I gotcha... misinterpreted it, my mistake.  I think that would get it done with the hefty amount of guarantees to offset a slightly lower overall average.

My prediction the other day was 5/145 making it effectively 6/166 or $27.6 million per.  You're probably about right on the guarantees, but at his age, I don't think he get bonuses quite that large, and will have a bit more of it in guaranteed salary.  Having $19.5 million in dead money for the season where he turns 37 is risky if he hits a sharp decline.

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