G-Dawg Mock Draft 2.0

[g-dawg]

1 minute ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

On board.  Don't know if I like Griffin in the 3rd...based on the moves the Falcons made in not re-signing Poe/Clayborn/Shelby, I could see them dipping back into the DL pool on Day 2.  That trio played 45% of the DL's defensive snaps in 2017.  While Beasley back at DL and increased Takk usage can make up some of that, to your point - a veteran DL on a 1-year deal is likely (and the market has some - Bennie Logan, Alan Branch, etc).

But it feels like the DL is under major construction with long term fixes in mind.

 

I believe we will just draft one DT and fill out the rest in FA with bodies.  I know he is a little bit of a tweener but DT/DE Jack Crawford is coming back - if we re-sign Rubin - there is three and we draft one early makes four.

Has anyone thought of this?

Garland has played sparingly in special situations at DT.   Could DQ be planning on using him some as depth and rotation given the depth at OG now?  Garland is a chess piece playing OG, C, NT.

[g-dawg]

7 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

So from the start of the league year until ~early-to-mid May, your signings of certain unrestricted free agents count as "qualifying free agents" for the sake of the compensatory pick system. However, after that period elapses, the UFAs you sign NO LONGER count as QFA. 

So....right now, we're looking at probably two compensatory picks, both in the 4th/5th round. If we were to sign a guy like Bennie Logan, it would cost us one of those picks. However, if we signed Bennie Logan in mid-May, he WOULDNT count as a QFA and we'd get the benefit of saving our comp picks but also picking up a desirable FA. 

I also believe we can sign Rubin back and not have him count as a QFA. 

EDIT TO ADD: Last year's QFA deadline was May 9. 

Ok, I thought maybe that is what you meant but I was unfamiliar with the rule.  Good to know.

Thanks!

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Just now, g-dawg said:

Ok, I thought maybe that is what you meant but I was unfamiliar with the rule.  Good to know.

Thanks!

No prob. I can't find the rule anywhere other than secondary sources (like PFT, for instance) but thats the way it works. 

Which sort of forces us to ask if the FO has any handshake agreements with FA about signing after the qualifying period is over. It would be fairly risky for a player to do that but if you're in a FO and you have a good rapport with a given agent, you'd be silly not to try to work that sort of angle. 

[g-dawg]

4 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

No prob. I can't find the rule anywhere other than secondary sources (like PFT, for instance) but thats the way it works. 

Which sort of forces us to ask if the FO has any handshake agreements with FA about signing after the qualifying period is over. It would be fairly risky for a player to do that but if you're in a FO and you have a good rapport with a given agent, you'd be silly not to try to work that sort of angle. 

agreed and 4th and 5th round draft picks are nothing to sneeze at - you don't want to just pizz those away because you couldn't wait 6 weeks......but, like you said, we could go ahead and sign Hankins now and that would not factor in since he was cut, right?

Not sure if Falcons would spend any money on a 1-yr deal for Hankins but guessing we can't until Matt signs his deal?   Falcons don't seem to be interested right now at top of the market DTs.

[Bobby.Digital]

1 hour ago, Kayoh said:

He isn't 5'11 either, he measured at exactly 6'0 at the combine. 6'0 210. He ran 4.42. He absolutely dominated at Maryland with legitimately some of the worst QB play I've ever seen in my life scouting college players. It was like, borderline Reggie Ball bad. I don't see the holes you're talking about, and the Stefon Diggs type WR in this draft is Christian Kirk, DJ Moore is way above that level as a receiver. DJ Moore's floor in the NFL is Roddy White. I think he's going to have an OBJ type impact on the team he goes to and a lot of people who are smarter than me see the same thing in him. He's the best WR prospect we've seen since the 2014 class. Better than Amari. Better than Corey Davis.

This is the issue I have with alot of your comparisons. Just because players test similarly does not mean they play the same style of game. While Kirk tested similarly to Diggs, they do not compare. Kirk plays a near identical game to Randall Cobb. Krik will not be able to consistently win on the outside like Diggs does. He's strictly a slot WR in the NFL. 

Im a big fan of DJ Moore myself. But to say his floor is Roddy White is just nuts. Roddy was a top 5 WR in his prime. I have Moores ceiling as Roddy White and his floor as a poor mans Jermey Maclin/Pierre Garcon 

What makes you think Moore will have an OBJ type affect in his first year? OBJ had one of the GOAT rookie seasons for a WR. I don't see the same explosion/ level of athlete ON THE FIELD from Moore as I do with OBJ. Not to mention OBJ is way better with the ball in the air. Also Moore has a big learning curve when it comes to route running as that offense in Maryland is not even close to a pro style offense   

The best WR in this class is Antonio Callaway (character issues aside) and hes also the best to come out in a while. Now hes a guy who can have a huge day 1 impact and who actually looks explosive on the field. 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Bobby.Digital

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

Just now, g-dawg said:

agreed and 4th and 5th round draft picks are nothing to sneeze at - you don't want to just pizz those away because you couldn't wait 6 weeks......but, like you said, we could go ahead and sign Hankins now and that would not factor in since he was cut, right?

Not sure if Falcons would spend any money on a 1-yr deal for Hankins but guessing we can't until Matt signs his deal?   

Correct, Hankins wont count as a QFA because he was released. I mean...he's only 25 and would be a great candidate for a mid-tier multi-year contract to anchor the middle of the D with Grady. But given the promising young players on the D, it'd be tough to try to extend a multi-year commitment to a player you havent had in your building and likely cost yourself a chance at retaining the guys that HAVE been in your building. Still, if its something they wanted to do, even on a one year deal, there are ways to make it happen. If you figure he's a 1 yr, $8m guy, you could convert Alford's base into a stretch bonus and pick up enough cap space to make it work. Or you could figure out the Ryan situation and hopefully pick up a decent chunk of space. 

Then again, I'm not sure the FO is going to want to back load the Ryan contract in a crazy way. He's on the books for $21.6m this year. I could see working that number down to like $15m but probably not any lower. 

 

[Kayoh]

1 minute ago, Bobby.Digital said:

This is the issue I have with alot of your comparisons. Just because players test similarly does not mean they play the same style of game. While Kirk tested similarly to Diggs, they do not compare. Kirk plays a near identical game to Randall Cobb. Krik will not be able to consistently win on the outside like Diggs does. He's strictly a slot WR in the NFL. 

Im a big fan of DJ Moore myself. But to say his floor is Roddy White is just nuts. Roddy was a top 5 WR in his prime. I have Moores ceiling as Roddy White and his floor as a poor mans Jermey Maclin. 

What makes you think Moore will have an OBJ type affect in his first year? OBJ had one of the GOAT rookie seasons for a WR. I don't see the same explosion/ level of athlete ON THE FIELD from Moore as I do with OBJ. Not to mention OBJ is way better with the ball in the air. Also Moore has a big learning curve when it comes to route running as that offense in Maryland is not even close to a pro style offense   

The best WR in this class is Antonio Callaway (character issues aside) and hes also the best to come out in a while. Now hes a guy who can have a huge day 1 impact and who actually looks explosive on the field. 

I disagree with basically everything you said and it's nothing we're going to change each others' minds about.

[g-dawg]

1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Correct, Hankins wont count as a QFA because he was released. I mean...he's only 25 and would be a great candidate for a mid-tier multi-year contract to anchor the middle of the D with Grady. But given the promising young players on the D, it'd be tough to try to extend a multi-year commitment to a player you havent had in your building and likely cost yourself a chance at retaining the guys that HAVE been in your building. Still, if its something they wanted to do, even on a one year deal, there are ways to make it happen. If you figure he's a 1 yr, $8m guy, you could convert Alford's base into a stretch bonus and pick up enough cap space to make it work. Or you could figure out the Ryan situation and hopefully pick up a decent chunk of space. 

Then again, I'm not sure the FO is going to want to back load the Ryan contract in a crazy way. He's on the books for $21.6m this year. I could see working that number down to like $15m but probably not any lower. 

 

seems kind of a red flag as well that NY Giants let him go to free agency,   Colts sign him to a 3 yr deal at $27mm, and then they pull the rip cord on Hankins after one year.      Is he some type of locker room cancer or something?   Seems to have a lot of talent for someone that appears to be so unloved by teams that have had him for awhile.

[Falcanuck]

Love it bro. I think Moore slips out of the first as well due to all of the FA WRs being signed (and paid well) this offseason. Highly doubt he makes it to our 2nd, but would jump for joy. Obviously, I love Bryan. Griffen is absolutely welcome on my team every day of the week. He's a baller.

[Bobby.Digital]

@g-dawg Overall solid mock. 

Love the Bryan pick. Hoping for Payne or Bryant at 26. 

Moore is a great value pick. I think he has a pretty high floor and will worst case be a big matchup nightmare from the slot. 

Griffin pick is intriguing. I just have my reservations about the missing hand. I have questions about how effectively he'll be able to shed blocks in the pros. If its not that big of an issue than sign me up. The athleticism and talent is there. 

Dimirti Flowers - Personally I'd go with another positon here. I see the need but I'd rather target one for Dlineman in the top 4 rounds. Quinn likes to rotate alot and one injury to either Takk or Beasley and we're in trouble.  

Don't know enough about the rest of the guys to give my opinion but overall well done. Good job!

[RYNE]

1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

OK, now that the dust is settling from Unrestricted Free Agency, I think it is safe for me to whip out a mock draft.   I fully expect the Falcons to sign at least 1 Defensive Tackle in the next few weeks - probably not a household name - in free agency.    Maybe re-sign Ahtyba Rubin whom I believe is still out there - plus we get Jack Crawford back.

Brandon Fusco signing a 3yr $12.5mm deal probably puts the kibosh on taking an OG/C early as well - so Isaiah Wynn, James Daniels, Will Hernandez, and Billy Price are likely not in play.

Falcons will continue to stick w/ their theme of fast players that play fast and furious that grade high on the "CT" (competitive toughness) scale.   Here is how I see it right now - honestly, any mock draft that nails two out of the 7 picks is doing well - so take it FWIW......feel free to criticize, praise, etc.  - all discussion is good as long as done in good faith.

 

#1-026) Taven Bryan, DT/DE - Florida 6'4", 291lbs -  This guy just has a great "get-off" on the LOS and wins early.  Plays w/ leverage and has a wicked stiff-arm.   He is raw and not a long-term starter but Dan Quinn will say he has traits and he will know how to "feature him".   I see Taven Bryan as kind of a young version of Michael Bennett who can set the edge as a SDE on early run downs and kick inside and rush the passer on nickel/dime downs.    Further, you know DQ will eat up with a spoon that Taven Bryan's dad was a Navy Seal and you know that kid probably was fed nuts/bolts for breakfast - chewed it up and spit out nails.   I realize this is not an original pick but the fit is so perfect.   Bryan has more passrush than Vea or Payne and DQ will think to himself - why should I trade-up for guys that are not as versatile as Bryan who I might can get at #26?

 

#2-059) D.J. Moore, WR-Maryland (6'0", 210lbs) - While not overly tall, this is a big/thick receiver that is fast (4.42/40) and explosive (39.5" vert / 11ft broad / 6.95-3-cone).    Moore caught a lot of short passes and bubble screens and turned them into big plays.  He may need to work on his route tree and refinement but this guy is a playmaker at WR and would definitely juice-up the Falcons passing game.  He has been compared by NFL.com to Stephon Diggs and that guy is a dayum good WR.   I wanted to go defense again w/ this pick but Falcons needed another playmaker and this side of the ball cannot be ignored.  Moore has the wiggle and the extra gear.

 

#3-90) Shaqueem Griffin, LB - Central Florida (6'1", 227lbs) - yes the "one-armed guy".   I know this can feel to some like a hype pick and I have my reservations myself about the physical limitation.  However, you have to consider this - this guy doesn't play like he is limited and - if anything, it seems to drive him to simply outwork everyone.   Furthermore, this isn't just a "try hard" guy - dude is explosive as evidenced by the show he put on at the NFL combnine and running a 4.38 / 40.   Now, let's review DQ's mantra - "Competitive Toughness" - does Griffin have it?  in spades.  What else?  Speed - DQ loves speed and playmaking - does Shaq Griffin have this?  YES,  he was his conference's defensive player of the year and he tore AU a new A-Hole.   YES, I would rather take Griffin in the 4th round - as would probably 1/2 the other NFL teams - he won't make it to the late 4th round.   I realize this will be a controversial pick but this guy can cover as well - will he rack up a ton of interceptions? NO but Trufant has trouble there as well - just a small part of the overall picture.   I am not guaranteeing he will be a star at the next level - but he will be a very good player and probably a locker-room guy as well - truly an inspiration and a guy that doesn't make excuses.  This ain't charity - this guy is a player.

 

4-126) Dmitri Flowers, FB-Oklahoma (6'2", 245lbs) -  Normally it is considered heresy to take a Fullback this high - some folks believe you should not even take a FB at all.   The Falcons made a huge mistake letting Patrick DiMarco walk and it hurt our offense.   Flowers is a very similiar player to DiMarco but obviously younger.    Flowers is also a weapon in the passing game and very good pass catcher and special teams player.    While FBs don't play every down and he will be a part-time player - he will have a role in the offense, he won't be a bust, we will get production and he will offer a lot on special teams as well.   This will be a good pick.

 

#6-200) Skyler Phillips, OG/C-Idaho State (6'3", 324lbs) - credit to @Kayoh here as he turned me onto Phillips and I challenged him on the guy because Kayoh had just put a twitter loop play on there and the competition wasn't the best - but Phillips did well in all-star games and he is very strong.  The challenge and the criticism I have seen with him is sustaining blocks - he will be a developmental player but he has the power and if he can adapt to ZBS and if NFL coaches can help him, he could be a find.

 

 

#7-244) D'Montre Wade, CB-Murray State (6'0", 200lbs) - not overly fast but has twitch and traits that can be developed.   Likely a candidate for practice squad and to be developed over a few years.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/dmontre-wade?id=2560174

 

#7-256) Roc Thomas, RB-Jacksonville State (5'11", 193lbs) - solid 3rd down type of back that has elusiveness and playmaking ability - can catch the ball.  More quick than fast.  Could compete w/ Terron Ward for #3 back but most likely would be a practice squad player.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/roc-thomas?id=2560216

Think Moore is a first rounder but I like the idea of the positions addressed in this draft a lot.

[g-dawg]

4 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

Love it bro. I think Moore slips out of the first as well due to all of the FA WRs being signed (and paid well) this offseason. Highly doubt he makes it to our 2nd, but would jump for joy. Obviously, I love Bryan. Griffen is absolutely welcome on my team every day of the week. He's a baller.

maybe to satisfy those that don't believe DJ Moore would fall - Falcons could trade 2nd/3rd rounder to move up and take DJ Moore in mid 2nd round - then maybe Griffin falls to 4th rounder - we still get the top three - we lose the FB that nobody likes - and still get those top three picks  - done!

[Falcanuck]

1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

maybe to satisfy those that don't believe DJ Moore would fall - Falcons could trade 2nd/3rd rounder to move up and take DJ Moore in mid 2nd round - then maybe Griffin falls to 4th rounder - we still get the top three - we lose the FB that nobody likes - and still get those top three picks  - done!

Done and done

[kiwifalcon]

1 hour ago, Kayoh said:

if DJ Moore is available at our 2nd round pick, every GM in the NFL deserves to be fired, including ours, because that means they passed on him in the 1st. DJ Moore is the best receiver in this class and should absolutely not fall past Baltimore at 16.

This sought of thing happens every year.

Carl Lawson got passed over 4 times by every team last year.

Grady Jarrett got passed over 5 times.

Morale to this story is it happens good players get passed over.

[Kayoh]

Just now, kiwifalcon said:

This sought of thing happens every year.

Carl Lawson got passed over 4 times by every team last year.

Grady Jarrett got passed over 5 times.

Morale to this story is it happens good players get passed over.

Carl Lawson? Come on dude, he's a situational pass rusher who had a good rookie season, let's not act like he's some kind of all-pro highly sought after player that people missed on. I had Grady as a late 1st-early 2nd type value and the best 4-3 NT in the 2015 draft, and absolutely nailed that eval, the NFL was just dumb on him. No clue why.

[g-dawg]

1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

This sought of thing happens every year.

Carl Lawson got passed over 4 times by every team last year.

Grady Jarrett got passed over 5 times.

Morale to this story is it happens good players get passed over.

some times teams just are looking at different positions and teams bypass value at one position to take a less talented player at another position.....not saying it will happen w/ Moore but it might.

[kiwifalcon]

1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

Carl Lawson? Come on dude, he's a situational pass rusher who had a good rookie season, let's not act like he's some kind of all-pro highly sought after player that people missed on. I had Grady as a late 1st-early 2nd type value and the best 4-3 NT in the 2015 draft, and absolutely nailed that eval, the NFL was just dumb on him. No clue why.

The point being is good players get passed over all the time position regardless is all I'm getting at.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

seems kind of a red flag as well that NY Giants let him go to free agency,   Colts sign him to a 3 yr deal at $27mm, and then they pull the rip cord on Hankins after one year.      Is he some type of locker room cancer or something?   Seems to have a lot of talent for someone that appears to be so unloved by teams that have had him for awhile.

The one concerning possibility would be that Hankins has been suspended for PEDs or drugs of abuse and that the punishment hasnt been announced publicly yet. But even then, its weird to see a team cut bait on a young player under contract for a first time offender suspension. The Colts have apparently chalked it up to a scheme fit thing....but I dont think thats a concern for us. 

[Kayoh]

2 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

The point being is good players get passed over all the time position regardless is all I'm getting at.

good players who don't stand out as exceptional in multiple categories, sure. Lawson had short stumpy arms and Grady was short and didn't have any single athletic trait that stood out as crazy good. DJ Moore as a prospect has very few flaws and tons of exceptional traits. He's incredible after the catch, he's got a great NFL frame for a WR at 6'0 210, he ran 4.42, he jumped 11'0" and 39.5", he put up over a thousand yards in a passing offense that didn't even amass two thousand, he really isn't the type of player who falls to day 3 like Grady and Lawson.

[kiwifalcon]

1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

good players who don't stand out as exceptional in multiple categories, sure. Lawson had short stumpy arms and Grady was short and didn't have any single athletic trait that stood out as crazy good. DJ Moore as a prospect has very few flaws and tons of exceptional traits. He's incredible after the catch, he's got a great NFL frame for a WR at 6'0 210, he ran 4.42, he jumped 11'0" and 39.5", he isn't the type of player who falls to day 3 like Grady and Lawson.

We will soon see.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

some times teams just are looking at different positions and teams bypass value at one position to take a less talented player at another position.....not saying it will happen w/ Moore but it might.

There's also a whole sea of data and information that we aren't privy to. Specifically, medical checkups, psych evals, background checks, personality tests, white board performance in one-on-ones, etc. 

The entire draft eval community is working on limited information. That doesnt mean it doesnt do a good job identifying players (it does) but there are parts of the story that we dont have access to. That stuff can drive any prospect to fall further in the draft than expected. 

[kiwifalcon]

1 hour ago, M@ck said:

Love this mock, would love it more if the #3 pick was Tim Settle (since BJ Hill has begun his climb)... I would love to leave the draft with a Taven Bryan /BJ Hill combo. 

Sign me up for that last line.

[takeitdown]

Good draft.  I liked that you went DT and Offensive Playmaker with your first 2.  We haven't drafted enough young guys to develop and give us a chance to get better on that side.

In the 3rd and 4th, I'd probably take another DL (Settle, Hill, etc) and a TE or other LB (though this guy is hard to root against.)

You're hitting the right notes.  Would only take a FB that high if he can also be a legitimate short yardage back.

[kiwifalcon]

1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

On board.  Don't know if I like Griffin in the 3rd...based on the moves the Falcons made in not re-signing Poe/Clayborn/Shelby, I could see them dipping back into the DL pool on Day 2.  That trio played 45% of the DL's defensive snaps in 2017.  While Beasley back at DL and increased Takk usage can make up some of that, to your point - a veteran DL on a 1-year deal is likely (and the market has some - Bennie Logan, Alan Branch, etc).

But it feels like the DL is under major construction with long term fixes in mind.

 

That's why I believe we double dip at DT because we are looking at the long term picture here at the position mentioned.

1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

So from the start of the league year until ~early-to-mid May, your signings of certain unrestricted free agents count as "qualifying free agents" for the sake of the compensatory pick system. However, after that period elapses, the UFAs you sign NO LONGER count as QFA. 

So....right now, we're looking at probably two compensatory picks, both in the 4th/5th round. If we were to sign a guy like Bennie Logan, it would cost us one of those picks. However, if we signed Bennie Logan in mid-May, he WOULDNT count as a QFA and we'd get the benefit of saving our comp picks but also picking up a desirable FA. 

I also believe we can sign Rubin back and not have him count as a QFA. 

EDIT TO ADD: Last year's QFA deadline was May 9. 

Great information Larry I to was unaware of the above.

[DonDaLuvMaker]

1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

seems kind of a red flag as well that NY Giants let him go to free agency,   Colts sign him to a 3 yr deal at $27mm, and then they pull the rip cord on Hankins after one year.      Is he some type of locker room cancer or something?   Seems to have a lot of talent for someone that appears to be so unloved by teams that have had him for awhile.

 

1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

The one concerning possibility would be that Hankins has been suspended for PEDs or drugs of abuse and that the punishment hasnt been announced publicly yet. But even then, its weird to see a team cut bait on a young player under contract for a first time offender suspension. The Colts have apparently chalked it up to a scheme fit thing....but I dont think thats a concern for us. 

 

 

Colts cut him due to switching to a 4-3 cover-2 scheme on defense.

 

They believed that he is more fit to the 3-4 scheme that they ran previously.

 

He should be a fit as a NT in Quinn's defense.