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A TDWII Observation: The <RED ALERT> area on our roster no one seems concerned about…WR


TheDirtyWordII
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1 hour ago, Yo_Lover said:

It's called a rotation. Remember the Superbowl when everyone was tired? Yeah.

Yes, a defense that's on the field for 90+ plays will always be tired no matter what the rotation.  And if we play the G.O.A.T every week, then you have a better point.  As far as the rotation...we've signed versatile guys like Shelby/Crawford to move all along the front 4.  And you can also draft a kid on Day 2.  Meanwhile, we play 10-on-11 on offense...but we've got Julio.

23 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Let me help you.  Here are all the weapons before you get to the #3 wide receiver right now:

1) Julio Jones

2) Mohammad Sanu

3) Devonta Freeman

4) Teco

5) #3 WR

If Sark would re-introduce the RB to the forward passing game, we have plenty of firepower there.  Also, there is little guarantee that Christian Kirk in 1st round will be better than someone like DJ Moore in the third round or Anthony Miller in 2nd round - all three are twitchy slot receivers.

Now, at OG we tried all year at RG and Schweitzer showed very little and was a liability.  Our Center is all-pro but on wrong side of 30 as well as our LG and is coming off injury.   Schweitzer and Garland(UFA) are nothing more than adequate backup depth.

Now,onto DT.   We will have to pay Grady Jarrett $10mm per year next year and I doubt we give Poe the market value of his $10mm per year this year.  Hageman I gone and Shelby is likely cut.  Upshaw and Rubhin are UFA and journeymen.

So ummm, yeah.

A guy who averages 10 YPR is our #2 'weapon'?  Out of the slot?

Listen, having RB's that catch the ball out of the backfield is a plus.  And what I'd also say is that I'd bet you we were Top 5-7 in RB receiving production in 2017...but it didn't look like we were effective leveraging our RB's (we could do a better job here for sure, but they still factored prominently)...they we're simply Ingram/Kamara like in 2016.  But when we say #3 WR...you know as well as anyone, that player is a starter.  And given Sanu plays a lot in the slot, it also means, teams can shift coverage to Julio's side of the field without much consequence.

1 hour ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

As long as the falcons have Julio, they are ok for now. Julio draws attention and teams gameplan for him. This makes it easy for guys like Sanu and Gabriel and even Hooper. Am I opposed to getting a new receiver? Not at all. But I wouldn’t be mad if they waited one more offseason 

If it made it so easy for them, then why did the THREE of them combine for but 149/1607/9?  Conceptually, you're right.  But you need personnel to take advantage of that.  The Falcons don't.

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

Let me help you.  Here are all the weapons before you get to the #3 wide receiver right now:

1) Julio Jones

2) Mohammad Sanu

3) Devonta Freeman

4) Teco

5) #3 WR

If Sark would re-introduce the RB to the forward passing game, we have plenty of firepower there.  Also, there is little guarantee that Christian Kirk in 1st round will be better than someone like DJ Moore in the third round or Anthony Miller in 2nd round - all three are twitchy slot receivers.

Now, at OG we tried all year at RG and Schweitzer showed very little and was a liability.  Our Center is all-pro but on wrong side of 30 as well as our LG and is coming off injury.   Schweitzer and Garland(UFA) are nothing more than adequate backup depth.

Now,onto DT.   We will have to pay Grady Jarrett $10mm per year next year and I doubt we give Poe the market value of his $10mm per year this year.  Hageman I gone and Shelby is likely cut.  Upshaw and Rubhin are UFA and journeymen.

So ummm, yeah.

FACTS!

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4 hours ago, g-dawg said:

TDWII,

everyone is concerned about it but we have two more important positions to fill first - OG and DT.   Further, you can get a decent WR in 3rd or 4th round or fairly cheap one in UFA.

The lines of scrimmage must be addressed first.  So just because we don't agree w/ you that it is our #1 priority, doesn't mean we are ignoring it.

Yes, and get the lines stocked with young high round talent and we will then have the freedom to get the playmakers in the draft in future years.

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Just now, Knight of God said:

You all exaggerate. If not, there would be no point. Even at priority it implies only the way its brought up. Its "corner blind" mentality around here. Almost Millen style.

no it's not - it doesn't fit your vision so therefore you make the opposing view seem simplistic - and it's not - it is just not your vision.

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

no it's not - it doesn't fit your vision so therefore you make the opposing view seem simplistic - and it's not - it is just not your vision.

Its only in recognizing the same from that POV. I see more than a little with these posts, if there is only a priority then there is no need to mention. There are 6 picks and FA. You guys are exaggerating like every year, a few here are just getting bored with it. Even making mocks and threads on purpose to prove it. 

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3 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Its only in recognizing the same from that POV. I see more than a little with these posts, if there is only a priority then there is no need to mention. There are 6 picks and FA. You guys are exaggerating like every year, a few here are just getting bored with it. Even making mocks and threads on purpose to prove it. 

not following your argument but I will drop it.   I believe the needs are mostly agreed upon by most - just differing priorities and/or where to get them.

You seem to want to address OG/DT in free agency and spend money and then draft defensive and offensive playmakers in the draft.  Right?

Me - I don't think we are going to be able to knock out a bunch of expensive needs like OG/DT in free agency and therefore will need to prioritize these in the draft.   People agree w/ you - People agree w/ me.....

Most everyone agrees we need OG/DT/#3 WR/Upgrade TE/nickel CB/Upgrade FS/Another Passrusher, etc. - there is not a lot of disagreement on the needs - just the priority.  

I also believe that tough choices have to be made on money spent now versus money needed in future and that decisions made today affect choices made tomorrow - while also recognizing there is always a move that can be made - but it comes down to choices.  With the increased talent, I believe the choices become harder to make.     

From reading your posts, I get the feeling you don't like or don't agree and just think the salary cap talk is pointless and it doesn't really matter - I know even the mention of salary cap annoys you - at least that is my perception of your thoughts.

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29 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

not following your argument but I will drop it.   I believe the needs are mostly agreed upon by most - just differing priorities and/or where to get them.

You seem to want to address OG/DT in free agency and spend money and then draft defensive and offensive playmakers in the draft.  Right?

Me - I don't think we are going to be able to knock out a bunch of expensive needs like OG/DT in free agency and therefore will need to prioritize these in the draft.   People agree w/ you - People agree w/ me.....

Most everyone agrees we need OG/DT/#3 WR/Upgrade TE/nickel CB/Upgrade FS/Another Passrusher, etc. - there is not a lot of disagreement on the needs - just the priority.  

I also believe that tough choices have to be made on money spent now versus money needed in future and that decisions made today affect choices made tomorrow - while also recognizing there is always a move that can be made - but it comes down to choices.  With the increased talent, I believe the choices become harder to make.     

From reading your posts, I get the feeling you don't like or don't agree and just think the salary cap talk is pointless and it doesn't really matter - I know even the mention of salary cap annoys you - at least that is my perception of your thoughts.

It annoys me because people think they know what they are talking about with the cap. I haven't settled on how I want to do anything yet. I'm still in experimentation phase.

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23 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

It annoys me because people think they know what they are talking about with the cap. I haven't settled on how I want to do anything yet. I'm still in experimentation phase.

no worries my friend.

as to the salary cap, it most definitely can be manipulated for sure - it is not simple math and you can always borrow from tomorrow to make room under the cap today - the more you do it though, the tougher the future you will have - sometimes you can hide the pain for 2, 3 or 4 years but the bill generally does come due at some point.

I do not want to be so conservative that we miss our window but also think you can get to the SB without relying on free agents year after year as well.   There is no ONE way to do it but the more complete our roster with more and more talent - the more traditional I believe the Falcons have to become - in other words, Just because we have always been able to get top-shelf talent or at least expensive talent in free agency - doesn't mean I think we can continue - or maybe that we SHOULD - keep doing that.

It's all good - I know it is complicated and not fun to talk about - kind of like politics.

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Just now, g-dawg said:

no worries my friend.

as to the salary cap, it most definitely can be manipulated for sure - it is not simple math and you can always borrow from tomorrow to make room under the cap today - the more you do it though, the tougher the future you will have - sometimes you can hide the pain for 2, 3 or 4 years but the bill generally does come due at some point.

I do not want to be so conservative that we miss our window but also think you can get to the SB without relying on free agents year after year as well.   There is no ONE way to do it but the more complete our roster with more and more talent - the more traditional I believe the Falcons have to become - in other words, Just because we have always been able to get top-shelf talent or at least expensive talent in free agency - doesn't mean I think we can continue - or maybe that we SHOULD - keep doing that.

It's all good - I know it is complicated and not fun to talk about - kind of like politics.

Man, you know I hate politics. I hate talking cap for the same reason. The course I'm in. I seriously answered 7 out of 10 incorrectly doing the cap the way we do on the board. This guy showed us a way to get 2-3 big splash players and a few big resigns and new signings without restructuring or cuts and with less than $20 million to work with and STILL not sell out the future. If its a one year "prove it" deal, you tend to get eaten up faster. You do best with a 3 year deal with extended options. This vapes most of the contract and allows the player to still get paid well. Its insane what you can do, but it is NOT what people here think.

The main reason not to make a huge Ansah splash is depreciation. He is 29 and still plays as though he is learning. Do you want to pay for him when you can get Sheldon Richardson for a bit less and plays multiple positions? You do in fact want better production than Clayborn and Reed is giving. You don't want it all on Jarrett, Beasley, Takk, and a rookie DT. 

As far as the OG, I see why we should if not to move on and start getting playmakers. (game changers at any position outside of OL for all the smarties) The draft is never as short on players as the projections make you think, they are never as deep as the media presents. Bargain shopping only works if the coaching and player foundation is strong in the position. On the line we have 4 good-great guys, adding Wynn or Hernandez is making the line even stronger and that's great. The LB corps is strong, adding another good player is amazing. The secondary with a monster FS is amazing. Another receiver (TE/WR/RB) is amazing. There are different ways to go and priority is subjective.

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7 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If you read my first off-season proposal, you know that WR is an area of concern for me.  Actually, it’s been that way for a little while.  I wrote the following last off-season.

Question: Do you expect Taylor Gabriel to be a Falcon in 2018?  Me?  I don’t.  I think he either plays well enough to earn a long term deal which I would not prefer the Falcons not match (or get into a bidding war) considering they have $20M/year invested in Julio/Sanu…or he has an underwhelming year. 

I like Gabriel, but I also think that at his size, he’s not going to be able to have significant workloads.  He’s a situational player – a really good one at 100%, but situational nonetheless.  I pointed out earlier in the off-season that Aldrick Robinson actually played more snaps than Gabriel.  If Julio/Sanu goes down, it's not Gabriel that takes on the additional workload (at least it wasn't last year).  And Hardy has hardly distinguished himself in two seasons.

So when I look at the WR position for the Falcons beyond 2017, I have concerns.

Well, we’re in 2018 now, and if you ask me, WR is really the most dangerously thin part of our depth chart.  And for a team with as much vested in Matt Ryan as the Falcons do (and will given his new contract which should be doled out later this off-season will approach if not top $30M/year)…the Falcons have to make sure he’s equipped with a level of talent out wide that can justify this massive investment.

Let’s take Julio out of the equation.  We all know he’s one of the elite players (not just WR’s) in the game.  Behind that…<RED ALERT>

Mohammed Sanu:  So I’m going to put a couple of per game stat lines over the course of two seasons.  One is Mohammed Sanu’s, and the other is Mystery Player A.

Sanu: 4.2 receptions/5.9 targets, 45.2 yards, 0.3 TD’s.
Mystery Player A: 3.5 receptions/6.3 targets, 43.9 yards, 0.12 TD’s.

Anyone care to take a guess at Mystery Player A…you can scroll down below to find out, but in the interim, let’s look at the rest of the depth chart.

AFMB consensus seems to be that we’d prefer the Falcons take a pass at re-signing Taylor Gabriel.  Away from Kyle Shanahan, Gabriel’s physical limitations showed and he could have likely earned the moniker, Mr. Bubble Screen, because by the end of the season, it seemed like that’s all Sark could think of to get him the ball.  This is not all on Gabriel…but in the end, if an OC can’t leverage/use a player to the best of his ability, well, Sark isn’t going anywhere in 2018 at least.

So let’s move to Justin Hardy.

I hate to belabor the point as I’ve made mention of it in several posts, but his 3 years stat line is:

62/618/7.

He generates 2.3 YAC/reception (that’s pretty bad) and his longest reception in his career is 27 yards.  I’m going to go all Mean Girl here…but we have to stop trying to make Justin Hardy happen.

He’s a significantly inferior version of Mohammed Sanu.  But that also brings up another point.  Our presumed (at this juncture) #3 WR is an inferior facsimile of our #2 WR.  So he doesn’t even possess a style contrast.  He’s not a burner…he’s not a red zone/end zone threat.  He’s a wannabe JAG.

…and then behind Justin Hardy?

Nick Williams
Reggie Davis
Marvin Hall
Devin Fuller

IT’S BARREN!!!

Today we would literally have no choice by to play Hardy in the vicinity of 600 snaps minimum because our depth chart at WR is abhorrent.  And I think that’s what’s puzzling to me…is that this information doesn’t have to be dug up…unearthed.  It’s right there for everyone in plain sight.  And I don’t sense any urgency on a lot of folks part to fix the issue.

Complicating matters is the following…Julio/Sanu have significant cap charges:

2018: Julio 2nd highest on the Falcons, Sanu 8th.
2019: Julio highest, Sanu 6th.

I doubt the Falcons brass is looking to add to the payroll at this position at least this off-season.  Now Sanu’s contract get more palatable to extricate ourselves from after this upcoming season…and while it’s possible the Falcons could explore that depending on how the 2018 season goes, it also brings up the obvious point that he is our second best WR by a WIDE margin and after him, there is NOONE in line to replace him.

The other worrisome point is this.  Anyone figure out who Mystery Player A is?

Mystery Player A is Michael Jenkins production during his final two season with the Falcons (2009-2010).

Now, I loathed Jenkins.  Thought he was a terrible NFL WR.  I think Sanu is a significantly better, tougher, more reliable player.  He plays with an edge and has more versatility.  I don’t want to compare players – Sanu is better.  Sanu is/was much more of a slot option than Jenkins, who rarely operated from that position on the field and while it’s worth noting that Sanu’s career YPR is 11.3, the production doesn’t lie…they produced at very similar levels on a per game basis.

Consider also that the Falcons passing game back during those seasons averaged only 231.9 YPG versus 284.6 that we’ve seen from the Falcons since 2016, when Sanu became a Falcon.  So Sanu’s production comes in an offense that is close to 23% more productive yardage wise than the offense that Jenkins was in.

To compound that, while Jenkins was the #2 WR in that offense, he was the clear 3rd option – behind Roddy White (in his prime) and Tony Gonzalez who during those two seasons combined for an average line of:

171.5 Receptions/290 Targets/2032.5 Receiving Yards/16.5 TD’s.

Despite that level of production from their Top 2 targets over the previous two seasons, Dimitroff gambled and made the Julio deal.

Now – I’m not suggesting a similar move.  There is no talent in this years draft within hailing distance of what Julio (and AJ Green) represented that draft season.  However, since FA is likely not an option due to the contract situation we have at that position now – the Falcons will have to turn to the draft to find a starter – no ifs ands or buts.  And usually, you find that in Round 1 (Round 2 worst case).  And I see a lot of off-season scenarios that simply aren’t treating this roster gap with enough urgency.

But Ryan is a significantly better player than the 2009/2010 version of himself.  He can easily get to his 3rd/4th reads.  Back in 2009/2010…he was very focused on Roddy/Gonzo.  But as a 10 year vet, if given talent – Ryan can leverage it.  He can make it work.  Does a QB need time to get to those reads – yes, so I’m not suggesting that WR only be addressed as part of the off-season plan.  But the Falcons are incredibly top heavy at WR.  In fact, the Falcons lack of talent at the WR position leans on Ryan’s abilities to make chicken salad out of chicken ish too much.

The Falcons caught lightning in a bottle with Taylor Gabriel (and to a lesser extent Aldrick Robinson)…but the match between Ryan and Shanahan caught fire.  And Shanahan found useful situational roles for players that quite frankly, he alone has been able to find use for.

But with Sark in the OC role for at least 2018 – we can’t count on his ability to raise all boats with his tide (like Shanny did)…we need TALENT! 

More succinctly – we need 1st ROUND TALENT!

round one- Wynn, or Billy Price

round 2- Dante Pettis 

or DJ Moore

or possible fall to the third

and one more 2nd round gem that could fall to third

This WR class is super deep i.m.o. It's going to be crazy who is high on whos board. There is round one talent littered throughout the top 100 picks. But yeah round 2 is where I have us taking a wr to upgrade Hardy. Wr#3 is way more of a need than is T.E.

Edited by ATLSlobberKnockers
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7 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Man, you know I hate politics. I hate talking cap for the same reason. The course I'm in. I seriously answered 7 out of 10 incorrectly doing the cap the way we do on the board. This guy showed us a way to get 2-3 big splash players and a few big resigns and new signings without restructuring or cuts and with less than $20 million to work with and STILL not sell out the future. If its a one year "prove it" deal, you tend to get eaten up faster. You do best with a 3 year deal with extended options. This vapes most of the contract and allows the player to still get paid well. Its insane what you can do, but it is NOT what people here think.

The main reason not to make a huge Ansah splash is depreciation. He is 29 and still plays as though he is learning. Do you want to pay for him when you can get Sheldon Richardson for a bit less and plays multiple positions? You do in fact want better production than Clayborn and Reed is giving. You don't want it all on Jarrett, Beasley, Takk, and a rookie DT. 

As far as the OG, I see why we should if not to move on and start getting playmakers. (game changers at any position outside of OL for all the smarties) The draft is never as short on players as the projections make you think, they are never as deep as the media presents. Bargain shopping only works if the coaching and player foundation is strong in the position. On the line we have 4 good-great guys, adding Wynn or Hernandez is making the line even stronger and that's great. The LB corps is strong, adding another good player is amazing. The secondary with a monster FS is amazing. Another receiver (TE/WR/RB) is amazing. There are different ways to go and priority is subjective.

yeah, my biggest problem w/ free agency is it is just high risk.   Most of the time you are paying a player today and in the future for something they did in the past and too often a player declines, some significantly and some more gradual - it is not often that a player gets better as the free agent and on 2nd deal - of course it happens, but it is more the exception than the rule.   So basically when you sign a high-priced UFA - if he performs to the contract - then great - but you broke even if you paid him big.  If you pay him big and you swing and miss - now you have that carrying cost on the books for awhile with dead money plus a high salary.   So the risk/reward tradeoff generally skews poorly - of course you and anyone here can give dozens of examples where it worked out great - but for everyone that worked out great there were many, many more that were "meh" or horrible.

If you nail the player and he performs throughout the contract - then yeah, it's great.  Michael Turner was great signing - Alex Mack was a great signing - but lord knows I could list many a Falcon signing here that sucked ballz, too.

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4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

yep, I like all three of those guys to varying amounts.

Think Pettis gives us the best value(day one elite returner), and a polished route runner with great acceleration and top end. However D.J. Moore reminds me of Boston when he played. 5'11 215 pds, built like a runningback. and gets YAC like a rb. Dude is just hard to get down, and is my favorite #3 receiver.

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

yeah, my biggest problem w/ free agency is it is just high risk.   Most of the time you are paying a player today and in the future for something they did in the past and too often a player declines, some significantly and some more gradual - it is not often that a player gets better as the free agent and on 2nd deal - of course it happens, but it is more the exception than the rule.   So basically when you sign a high-priced UFA - if he performs to the contract - then great - but you broke even if you paid him big.  If you pay him big and you swing and miss - now you have that carrying cost on the books for awhile with dead money plus a high salary.   So the risk/reward tradeoff generally skews poorly - of course you and anyone here can give dozens of examples where it worked out great - but for everyone that worked out great there were many, many more that were "meh" or horrible.

If you nail the player and he performs throughout the contract - then yeah, it's great.  Michael Turner was great signing - Alex Mack was a great signing - but lord knows I could list many a Falcon signing here that sucked ballz, too.

I'm not big on risk/reward money wise, but more risk/reward in terms of what we could have done. We've been burned with FA's more than a little, but mainly because we had no plan "B". I honestly want to see what we do. The way our culture is set, we will likely resign and add maybe one guy no one was expecting but doesn't effect the draft much. Then draft maybe Wynn or Taven in the first and a lot of dudes we don't know, want, or even help much....then argue over them like they are all stars. Unless we bolster the lines (both), the receivers, and the defensive secondary or LB's in a real way, we are on the outside looking in next year. We are not the only team looking to get better.

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3 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

I'm not big on risk/reward money wise, but more risk/reward in terms of what we could have done. We've been burned with FA's more than a little, but mainly because we had no plan "B". I honestly want to see what we do. The way our culture is set, we will likely resign and add maybe one guy no one was expecting but doesn't effect the draft much. Then draft maybe Wynn or Taven in the first and a lot of dudes we don't know, want, or even help much....then argue over them like they are all stars. Unless we bolster the lines (both), the receivers, and the defensive secondary or LB's in a real way, we are on the outside looking in next year. We are not the only team looking to get better.

agree w/ most of this....and the NFC is much more competitive than recent years.    Lots of teams looking to get better(like you said).

At the end of the day, if you make a lot of great calls in draft and free agency - and not many bad ones - then it will all work out.  The good news is the drafts have been getting better under Quinn - at least until this year - with Takk and not much else - Duke Riley and Kazee still could turn that class into a good one - I don't have much hope for Harlow, Brian Hill(cut already) and Saubert(TE) - maybe Harlow and Saubert will develop but I wouldn't bet on it.

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

agree w/ most of this....and the NFC is much more competitive than recent years.    Lots of teams looking to get better(like you said).

At the end of the day, if you make a lot of great calls in draft and free agency - and not many bad ones - then it will all work out.  The good news is the drafts have been getting better under Quinn - at least until this year - with Takk and not much else - Duke Riley and Kazee still could turn that class into a good one - I don't have much hope for Harlow, Brian Hill(cut already) and Saubert(TE) - maybe Harlow and Saubert will develop but I wouldn't bet on it.

Lets hope we get back to the first two or we won't be in the running for a long time.

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7 hours ago, g-dawg said:

You can have a Ferrari body but if you have a broken down engine you will only look good in the garage.

I am all for securing a #3 WR this year but - what is the number I just wrote?  #3.

How many teams draft their #3 in first round when they have holes on both sides of the LOS?

it is just a bad idea.

It's because your already assumed that the o-line can't be improved because of Kirk being taken in the first round.

#3 how bout looking at it this way how many teams draft potential.You gotta get past that man.If I take Kirk in the first round it's because of that potential.

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4 hours ago, Knight of God said:

It annoys me because people think they know what they are talking about with the cap. I haven't settled on how I want to do anything yet. I'm still in experimentation phase.

I know what your thinking though FS upgrade quick I bet that's been on your mind for many a year.

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