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1 minute ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

You also can't expect people to go to the polls when they don't think they'll get anything out of it.

They get someone who agrees with them on the issues and has policy that would help solve those issues. Unions stuck their neck out for Conor Lamb and now he is one of the few dems backing tariffs. 

And there have been politicians that have stuck their neck out for young voters only to fall on their face. Bernie for example.

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Just now, GEORGIAfan said:

They get someone who agrees with them on the issues and has policy that would help solve those issues. Unions stuck their neck out for Conor Lamb and now he is one of the few dems backing tariffs. 

And there have been politicians that have stuck their neck out for young voters only to fall on their face. Bernie for example.

A previously irrelevant backbencher was able to run a competitive campaign against one of the most well known, connected, and funded politicians in the country because of it.

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1 minute ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

A previously irrelevant backbencher was able to run a competitive campaign against one of the most well known, connected, and funded politicians in the country because of it.

AaUtJom.gif

 

"competitive". Primary was never that competitive. It was effectively locked up after Super Tuesday. 

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6 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

"competitive". Primary was never that competitive. It was effectively locked up after Super Tuesday. 

An uncompetitive primary would look more like the 2008 or 2012 GOP primaries.

Likewise, the fact that it took her that long to beat a backbencher who relied almost entirely on young voters and small donations should, I don't know, hint at something.

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5 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

An uncompetitive primary would look more like the 2008 or 2012 GOP primaries.

Likewise, the fact that it took her that long to beat a backbencher who relied almost entirely on young voters and small donations should, I don't know, hint at something.

I didn't say it wasn't uncompetitive. I am saying that it was not as competitive as those on the left like to make it. Bernie had a shot, but that ended on Super Tuesday. After ST, HRC's lead was insurmountable. 

Also, HRC had a higher percentage of the vote than Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008. The main difference was that anti-Romney/McCain voters had multiple other candidates to back, while Dem 2016 had only one. This is why Bernie despite his name recognition, favorability, and success in the 2016 primary is not running away in 2020 Dem primary polls. 

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7 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I didn't say it wasn't uncompetitive. I am saying that it was not as competitive as those on the left like to make it. Bernie had a shot, but that ended on Super Tuesday. After ST, HRC's lead was insurmountable. 

Also, HRC had a higher percentage of the vote than Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008. The main difference was that anti-Romney/McCain voters had multiple other candidates to back, while Dem 2016 had only one. This is why Bernie despite his name recognition, favorability, and success in the 2016 primary is not running away in 2020 Dem primary polls. 

They were helped by being well known/connected/funded front runners while the opposition was divided and couldn't figure out who to rally around.

The 2020 Dem primary is shaping up to be similar, presuming Sanders runs.

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13 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

They were helped by being well known/connected/funded front runners while the opposition was divided and couldn't figure out who to rally around.

The 2020 Dem primary is shaping up to be similar, presuming Sanders runs.

I see 2020 being more like 2008 Dem than the GOP primary. Dem primary does not give bonus delegates like GOP, so 40%, which Bernie is not even at, is not enough to win. Also, Bernie still has to show that Black voters will back him in large numbers. Booker, who has made Criminal Justice reform his main pillar, has a very good shot at winning over black voters. 

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30 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I see 2020 being more like 2008 Dem than the GOP primary. Dem primary does not give bonus delegates like GOP, so 40%, which Bernie is not even at, is not enough to win. Also, Bernie still has to show that Black voters will back him in large numbers. Booker, who has made Criminal Justice reform his main pillar, has a very good shot at winning over black voters. 

Maybe Booker should crack double digits or at least convincingly poll ahead of the O'Malleys and Hickenloopers first.

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19 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

Maybe Booker should crack double digits or at least convincingly poll ahead of the O'Malleys and Hickenloopers first.

Booker hasn't been in double digits, but he has been polling ahead of MOMs and Hickenloopers. He is currently 4th after Warren, Bernie, and Biden in all the recent polls I have seen. 

Also when no one is polling above 30%, I do not see how polling at 10% vs 8% makes much of a difference.  It is still very open and a 30% front-runner is not impressive with Dems current primary rules.

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Mark Sanford lost his primary bid against a House Freedom Caucus candidate and Trumper, Katie Arrington.  Republicans moving further right should be good for democrats in November.  SC’s 1st district congressional seat is supposedly safe.  I’m not buying it.  The democrats have a good candidate in place there.  It will be a very tight race.  

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On 6/11/2018 at 5:58 PM, GEORGIAfan said:

Booker hasn't been in double digits, but he has been polling ahead of MOMs and Hickenloopers. He is currently 4th after Warren, Bernie, and Biden in all the recent polls I have seen. 

Also when no one is polling above 30%, I do not see how polling at 10% vs 8% makes much of a difference.  It is still very open and a 30% front-runner is not impressive with Dems current primary rules.

Trump dominates that field in the general.  If I were the Dems strategist, I would start looking for a new crop of moderate Dems to groom.  2024 is not that far off.  But as good as things are going for Trump, I think it might be a Reagan situation (H W rode his coattails) where (after Trump's two terms) the GOP nominee will ride the wave in 2024 to victory.  

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