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Mel Kiper 2018 Mock 1.0 - With the 26th Pick, the Falcons Select...


TheDirtyWordII
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14 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Justin Hardy?  Who in 3 NFL seasons has compiled a 62/617/7 receiving line?  A 10.0 YPR, to go along with Mohammed Sanu, who in his two seasons with the Falcons has compiled a 10.8 YPR?  So both are possession WR's who defenses don't have to worry about having them get bear behind them?  That Justin Hardy?

And again with Marvin Hall...2 catches for 60 yards over an entire NFL season...who was a UDFA who didn't make a roster in 2016?  That Marvin Hall?

And how many targets did Hardy get? Give him Gabe’s targets and see what he does with them. And you are vastly overrating Gabriel. Who says Hall can’t replace him? Sark just rarely takes deep shots.

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6 minutes ago, UltraTurbo 2000 said:

Not if it's not best need.  The trenches are the biggest need unless you disagree.

 

I think they’re both a need. But I wouldn’t reach on a G or DT if there is someone better at WR, TE, or FS maybe LB.

And I’m not saying that’s Kirk because I don’t know enough about him.

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5 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

And how many targets did Hardy get? Give him Gabe’s targets and see what he does with them. And you are vastly overrating Gabriel. Who says Hall can’t replace him? Sark just rarely takes deep shots.

IYO, do you think Gabriel played over Hardy...just cause?  There wasn't anything preventing the Falcons or Sark getting Hardy on the field more.  If Hardy was a better player, he'd be in the game more.  But at the end of the day, he's a 20-25 snap/game player because his skillset is redundant and subpar.

As for Sark not taking shots downfield:

2016 Ryan Pass Attempts by Distance (air yards)

21-30 yards: 33
31-40 yards: 11
41+ yards: 8

2017 Ryan Pass Attempts by Distance (air yards)

21-30 yards: 33
31-40 yards: 12
41+ yards: 13

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9 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

Can you name them?

You've got:

DET - Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golloday
GB: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb
LAC: Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin (with 2017 #8 overall pick Mike Williams)
LAR: Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp
NE: Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan
PIT: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant

...and these are just the really obvious teams, but if you look, all have significant financial and fate investments in their QB's.

This list also doesn't include teams that have strong #2's or elite TE's like MIN (Thielen/Diggs) & KC (Hill/Kelce) or PHI with distributed pass catching weapons (Jeffrey, Agholor, Ertz)
 

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50 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

So for 2018, we would entrust the #3 WR position to Marvin Hall?  2 catches for 60 yard all year Marvin Hall?  Who played 77 offensive snaps in 2017 Marvin Hall?  A UDFA who didn't make an NFL roster in 2016 Marvin Hall?

OK...?:ninja:

What does it matter if we won't use him? Do you expect a rookie to be that much better than Gabriel? And for the record, I'd prefer to see Hardy as our #3. No, he isn't a burner, but he has some of the best hands around. 

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3 minutes ago, youngbloodz said:

Pass. You build the line of scrimmage first and foremost

2014: 6th pick overall - Jake Matthews
2015: 8th pick overall - Vic Beasley
2016: Major FA signing - Alex Mack
2017 26th pick overall - Takk McKinley

We've been doing this.  But at the same time, building a great team requires balanced investment with the assets you have.  I'd argue that balance since Quinn has come on board has been tilted towards just what you say.

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12 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

I think they’re both a need. But I wouldn’t reach on a G or DT if there is someone better at WR, TE, or FS maybe LB.

And I’m not saying that’s Kirk because I don’t know enough about him.

I'm not saying reaching I think there would be studs at DT or OG where we pick in the first and second.  The only way I could see going WR or LB early is if the first or second rank guys at those position fell to us some how.

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Just now, Falcon Ben said:

What does it matter if we won't use him? Do you expect a rookie to be that much better than Gabriel? And for the record, I'd prefer to see Hardy as our #3. No, he isn't a burner, but he has some of the best hands around. 

Gabriel was a player who was waived by a team that subsequently lost 31 of their next 32 games.  Upon being waived, half the NFL passed on picking him up for nothing on the waiver wire.

Gabriel's career has been made by being with Kyle Shanahan.  The years Gabriel has not had him as his OC, he has not been an NFL caliber player.  Do I think a 1st round talent is better than Gabriel.  Yes.

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1 hour ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

We have an absurd amount of money tied up in WR and an absurd LACK of money tied up in the O-line. We need DT/OG/TE. I'd take BPA at any of those 3 before another freaking 1st round WR.

Heading into next year, we have the 6th highest OL cap charge in the league. We have the 8th highest WR cap charge. 

 

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Don't know anything about this year's draft class so I can't speak to the player, but overall, this wouldnt be great. Unless the value proposition is so high with this guy and low with other prospects, this would likely be a mistake. 

In general, this team is not in need of a further move toward focusing the offense on the passing game. If anything, it should start going the other way. 

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11 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You've got:

DET - Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golloday
GB: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb
LAC: Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin (with 2017 #8 overall pick Mike Williams)
LAR: Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp
NE: Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan
PIT: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant

...and these are just the really obvious teams, but if you look, all have significant financial and fate investments in their QB's.

This list also doesn't include teams that have strong #2's or elite TE's like MIN (Thielen/Diggs) & KC (Hill/Kelce) or PHI with distributed pass catching weapons (Jeffrey, Agholor, Ertz)
 

A lot of these dudes arent likely high dollar earners in 2018. 

Kenny Golladay doesnt cost anything and isnt more than a potential guy. 
Nelson and Cobb are likely both gone. They're certainly getting their deals redone to lower the number. 
Watkins is a FA and isnt locked to the Rams roster
Bryant and Smith-Schuster dont cost anything. 

You can do the same thing for the Falcons......Julio/Sanu/RBs/Hooper as a baseline isnt any different than the skill position groupings youve mentioned. 

 

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4 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Don't know anything about this year's draft class so I can't speak to the player, but overall, this wouldnt be great. Unless the value proposition is so high with this guy and low with other prospects, this would likely be a mistake. 

In general, this team is not in need of a further move toward focusing the offense on the passing game. If anything, it should start going the other way. 

Does the ability to stretch a defense help the running game?

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

A lot of these dudes arent likely high dollar earners in 2018. 

Kenny Golladay doesnt cost anything and isnt more than a potential guy. 
Nelson and Cobb are likely both gone. They're certainly getting their deals redone to lower the number. 
Watkins is a FA and isnt locked to the Rams roster
Bryant and Smith-Schuster dont cost anything. 

You can do the same thing for the Falcons......Julio/Sanu/RBs/Hooper as a baseline isnt any different than the skill position groupings youve mentioned. 

 

Do you consider a 1st round pick in terms of salary cap hit prohibitive?  So when you mention they don't cost anything...unless you're drafted in the Top 10, you're not going to approach NFL AAV.

Golloday averaged 43.4YPG his rookie year as a #3 WR.  Sanu averaged 46.9 his 7th season as the Falcons #2 WR.  I think he's more than a potential guy.  And as far as GB, the overall point whether GB decides to keep them together is that GB invested heavily to provide their franchise QB weapons.

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Define "stretch a defense"

Without further clarification, no, not really. Maybe a touch? Depends totally on situation. 

A defense that doesn't respect an offenses ability to hit them deep won't be inclined to bring a S into the box on a more frequent occurrence?

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