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Mel Kiper 2018 Mock 1.0 - With the 26th Pick, the Falcons Select...


TheDirtyWordII
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26. Atlanta Falcons

*Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Kirk isn't a giant, go-to No. 1 wide receiver -- he's only 5-11 -- but Atlanta doesn't need that with Julio Jones already on the roster. Kirk would be a versatile offensive threat who could immediately help as both a punt and kick returner. He can play in the slot and burn defensive backs, and he could play outside too. Kirk had an up-and-down 2017 season, but he still finished with 12 total touchdowns, including two on returns. He's my No. 2-ranked receiver

TDWII Take:  I'm a BIG fan of this pick.  HUGE!  I think I'm swimming upstream in terms of my endorsement of a selection of WR high.  But I think the Falcons have not done a very good or thorough job of building a pass catching corps behind Julio/Sanu.  The synopsis by Kiper is spot-on.  Kirk would provide a versatile option in the offense and on ST in the return game which could open the Falcons offense back up.

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LOL probably the worst 1st round pick we could make 

let’s see: we have the best #1 WR in the game and a solid #2. So we’re gonna draft a 5’11” WR to be our #3? Is the Phillip Dorset?

We didn’t lose to Philly Bc we lacked a 5’11” WR

We badly need guards and a run-stuffing DT

That would be a terrible pick 

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7 minutes ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

We have an absurd amount of money tied up in WR and an absurd LACK of money tied up in the O-line. We need DT/OG/TE. I'd take BPA at any of those 3 before another freaking 1st round WR.

When you say absurd amount of money...

Julio is an All-Pro HOF level talent...his 5 year $70M deal he signed a couple of years back...well let's compare that to Davante Adams who just signed a 4 year $58M deal.  IMO, he's a bargain for what and who he is.

Sanu is a guy who is a solid player.  Does his production justify the investment?  You could argue either way...but those two players are the lion's share of our investment. 

Gabriel = FA
Hardy = 4th year player still on rookie deal

IMO, because you can't dip into the FA pool...given the investments in the WR position, a 1st rounder makes a TON of sense given some of the issues that rose to the surface on offense this year...namely, outside of Julio, we have no explosive weapons out wide at all.  A 1st rounder gives you the potential for an elite talent at a low price.

Takk was the #26 pick last year - 4 years $10.2M.

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1 minute ago, NeonDeion said:

LOL probably the worst 1st round pick we could make 

let’s see: we have the best #1 WR in the game and a solid #2. So we’re gonna draft a 5’11” WR to be our #3? Is the Phillip Dorset?

We didn’t lose to Philly Bc we lacked a 5’11” WR

We badly need guards and a run-stuffing DT

That would be a terrible pick 

We shouldn't re-sign Poe?

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I like the position but NOT the player at 26... There are more magical receivers in the draft.

I think people miss the impact a #1WR playing against a #3 corner, lbs or safety could have... Now try and double, triple Julio...

And I think good guard talent will be there in round 2-3.

Edited by BirdLegs
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To be fair, I opened this thinking for certain Kiper would be another clown saying we were going CB in the 1st.  Kudos to him for not being that guy.

Still, this is another one of those picks from guys not paying attention and getting caught up in skill positions, etc.  I do think we’ll draft a WR but in the 1st? :lol:

I do think we may see a surprise though.  Most of us are thinking DT or Guard but I wouldn’t be completely stunned to see a Tackle, DE, S or TE in the 1st.

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1 minute ago, slamee101 said:

To be fair, I opened this thinking for certain Kiper would be another clown saying we were going CB in the 1st.  Kudos to him for not being that guy.

Still, this is another one of those picks from guys not paying attention and getting caught up in skill positions, etc.  I do think we’ll draft a WR but in the 1st? :lol:

I do think we may see a surprise though.  Most of us are thinking DT or Guard but I wouldn’t be completely stunned to see a Tackle, DE, S or TE in the 1st.

Taking a tackle or S in the first is a waste since they won’t start. I could see a TE or DE if we let Clayborn walk but we really need Gs and a beast DT in the middle 

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6 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

we have no explosive weapons out wide at all.

We had two on the roster all year long. We just didn't use them much. 

Ju, Gabriel and Hall are all legit burners. I know Gabriel is probably gone, but the point remains -- this is a low-level need. Plus, we have two of the best pass-catching running backs (one of whom is also a legitimate burner) already on the roster. 

If -- and that's a big if -- we decide an offensive skill player is our best choice for our first-round pick, I'd rather get a true #1 tight end. 

I'm on board with a guard (end of the first round is a good spot for guards) or a DT, although I'd prefer the guard. 

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2 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

Poe might be too expensive, but we still should add to the trenches. If Payne or Vea is there, we gotta pull the trigger. If not, one of the guards for sure. 

I said this in another thread, but...good players are good players.  Since the last CBA agreement, we've seen the salary cap expand from $120M to what's projected to be close to $180M in 2018. From my POV, this allows teams to retain more of the players they want to retain at market value.

Poe played 75% (thereabouts) of the defensive snaps in 2017 - when I recall back to why Poe signed a 1 year deal...there was some concern as to his physical condition, particularly his back.  I think Poe helped to answer some questions/doubts on that front as well as keeping his weight down.  Also seemed to be a good locker room guy - bought into The Brotherhood and by in large produced to expectation.  Also, the DT market seemed unusually bearish - I don't know if the market will respond the same way this off-season, but I didn't see anything this season that dissuades me from thinking he shouldn't be a part of our 3-4 year plan at market value.

When you couple that with the fact that Jarrett also played 75% of the snaps and we're likely committed to him long term as well, the idea of using a 1st round pick for a short & LONG term rotational player seems misguided. 

It's not to say that 1) we want Jarrett and Poe playing 75% of the snaps in 2018 & beyond or 2) that we don't need to bolster that depth chart at DT.  But right now, our #3 WR is Taylor Gabriel (also a FA).  And Justin Hardy has not developed into anything.  Meanwhile, 11 formation (with 3 WR's on the field) is the most utilized offensive formation the Falcons (and the rest of the NFL) use.

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I said this in another thread, but...good players are good players.  Since the last CBA agreement, we've seen the salary cap expand from $120M to what's projected to be close to $180M in 2018. From my POV, this allows teams to retain more of the players they want to retain at market value.

Poe played 75% (thereabouts) of the defensive snaps in 2017 - when I recall back to why Poe signed a 1 year deal...there was some concern as to his physical condition, particularly his back.  I think Poe helped to answer some questions/doubts on that front as well as keeping his weight down.  Also seemed to be a good locker room guy - bought into The Brotherhood and by in large produced to expectation.  Also, the DT market seemed unusually bearish - I don't know if the market will respond the same way this off-season, but I didn't see anything this season that dissuades me from thinking he shouldn't be a part of our 3-4 year plan at market value.

When you couple that with the fact that Jarrett also played 75% of the snaps and we're likely committed to him long term as well, the idea of using a 1st round pick for a short & LONG term rotational player seems misguided. 

It's not to say that 1) we want Jarrett and Poe playing 75% of the snaps in 2018 & beyond or 2) that we don't need to bolster that depth chart at DT.  But right now, our #3 WR is Taylor Gabriel (also a FA).  And Justin Hardy has not developed into anything.  Meanwhile, 11 formation (with 3 WR's on the field) is the most utilized offensive formation the Falcons (and the rest of the NFL) use.

You can never have too many top DTs. 

And poor routes and guards NOT our WRs is the reason we struggled. The SAME guys killed it last season. 

And Matt doesn’t do well with short WRs anyways 

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3 minutes ago, Falcon Ben said:

We had two on the roster all year long. We just didn't use them much. 

Ju, Gabriel and Hall are all legit burners. I know Gabriel is probably gone, but the point remains -- this is a low-level need. Plus, we have two of the best pass-catching running backs (one of whom is also a legitimate burner) already on the roster. 

If -- and that's a big if -- we decide an offensive skill player is our best choice for our first-round pick, I'd rather get a true #1 tight end. 

I'm on board with a guard (end of the first round is a good spot for guards) or a DT, although I'd prefer the guard. 

So for 2018, we would entrust the #3 WR position to Marvin Hall?  2 catches for 60 yard all year Marvin Hall?  Who played 77 offensive snaps in 2017 Marvin Hall?  A UDFA who didn't make an NFL roster in 2016 Marvin Hall?

OK...?:ninja:

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2 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

You can never have too many top DTs. 

And poor routes and guards NOT our WRs is the reason we struggled. The SAME guys killed it last season. 

And Matt doesn’t do well with short WRs anyways 

So you would re-sign Gabriel?  5'8 165 pound Taylor Gabriel?  Who with over 200 more offensive snaps in 2017 (v 2016) had 65% of the yardage production he had the previous year and generally hasn't performed at an NFL level when he's not on Kyle Shanahan's team.  That Taylor Gabriel?

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Just now, TheDirtyWordII said:

So you would re-sign Gabriel?  5'8 165 pound Taylor Gabriel?  Who with over 200 more offensive snaps in 2017 (v 2016) had 65% of the yardage production he had the previous year and generally hasn't performed at an NFL level when he's not on Kyle Shanahan's team.  That Taylor Gabriel?

Umm...no. Hall replaces Gabriel. Hardy moves to #3. With better designed routes, Hardy can be solid 3. He has the best hands on the team. 

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1 minute ago, NeonDeion said:

Umm...no. Hall replaces Gabriel. Hardy moves to #3. With better designed routes, Hardy can be solid 3. He has the best hands on the team. 

Justin Hardy?  Who in 3 NFL seasons has compiled a 62/617/7 receiving line?  A 10.0 YPR, to go along with Mohammed Sanu, who in his two seasons with the Falcons has compiled a 10.8 YPR?  So both are possession WR's who defenses don't have to worry about having them get bear behind them?  That Justin Hardy?

And again with Marvin Hall...2 catches for 60 yards over an entire NFL season...who was a UDFA who didn't make a roster in 2016?  That Marvin Hall?

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22 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

LOL probably the worst 1st round pick we could make 

let’s see: we have the best #1 WR in the game and a solid #2. So we’re gonna draft a 5’11” WR to be our #3? Is the Phillip Dorset?

We didn’t lose to Philly Bc we lacked a 5’11” WR

We badly need guards and a run-stuffing DT

That would be a terrible pick 

Didn’t our WR’s lead the league in drops? We have nobody outside Julio and Sanu. How many times did Ryan drop back this year and nobody was open? Combine that with Julio is not on the field as much as a Hopkins or AB..we desperately need another good WR or TE.

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5 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Justin Hardy?  Who in 3 NFL seasons has compiled a 62/617/7 receiving line?  A 10.0 YPR, to go along with Mohammed Sanu, who in his two seasons with the Falcons has compiled a 10.8 YPR?  So both are possession WR's who defenses don't have to worry about having them get bear behind them?  That Justin Hardy?

And again with Marvin Hall...2 catches for 60 yards over an entire NFL season...who was a UDFA who didn't make a roster in 2016?  That Marvin Hall?

Might as well quit. You are using way too much logic. Clearly a DT or OG cannot be drafted beyond the 1st round.

Wait...Wasn't the Falcons best DT snagged in the 5th?

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6 minutes ago, falconsfan4life3 said:

Didn’t our WR’s lead the league in drops? We have nobody outside Julio and Sanu. How many times did Ryan drop back this year and nobody was open? Combine that with Julio is not on the field as much as a Hopkins or AB..we desperately need another good WR or TE.

Outside of Julio and Sanu? Which teams have amazing 3rd and 4th WRs??? We don’t desperately need skill players. We desperately need guards 

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Just now, NeonDeion said:

Outside of Julio and Sanu? Which teams have amazing 3rd and 4th WRs??? We don’t desperately need skill players. We desperately need guards 

I’m sure most teams have better 3rd and 4th WR’s. And even if we take a WR high doesn’t mean we can’t get good guard.

Doubt we’d take a guard in the 1st anyway. 

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