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Paradigm Shift In NFL


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33 minutes ago, ricko1112 said:

Pittsburgh put up 42 points. Compared to the Steelers, the Patriots have a better rushing attack, a better passing attack, a better (and smarter) QB, score more point/game, allow fewer points/game, are focused on the Jags (not who they'll be playing in MN), no one grousing about contracts, sitting out, retiring, no one trash talking, a coaching staff that can adjust on offense and defense, a head coach that prepares for every possibility, understands clock management and situational football, and doesn't poop his pants in big games.

Not sayin' NE will will... Just sayin'...

 

I disagree with some of that assessment. Despite NE having the better rushing stats, I don’t believe they have a more dangerous rushing attack than the Steelers.

During the regular season NE’s offense is a 70/30 split between run and pass. Of their 4,418 passing yards, 49% of their receiving yards came from Gronk/Cooks. Jaguars defense ranks 21st in rushing defense, and 1st in passing defense. So the matchup favors Jags defense. 

I also believe that Jags defense has the ability to matchup up with Pats’ playmakers very well. If I were the Jags I would man up Ramsey on Gronk. I would also play their smaller WRs very physical, and bump them when they come off the line. This could disrupt their timing and lead to mistakes. Jags have the ability to matchup really well with the Pats offense. 

Conversely Pats are middling in defense both against the run and pass. So I think we see a healthy dose of Fournette and more Bortles scrambling. These matchups don’t in any way guarantee victory but it appears to be in the Jags’ favor. 

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24 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

The league is evolving. RB's are a dime or dozen. You can get one at any round, they will never be taken in the first again. 

I respectfully disagree. I think that teams utilizing a run heavy scheme is making a comeback and people are seeing more value in RBs.

That being said I think that only top tier RBs will be taken early but I don’t think we’ll see any taken in the mid to late 1st round. 

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Maybe the reason the Falcons offense was good last year was more to do with the solid OL (almost unchanged all year) than the QB?

What was the big addition to the offense between 2015 and 2016 - Mack?

What was the big subtraction to the offense between 2016 and 2017 - Chester?

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8 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I respectfully disagree. I think that teams utilizing a run heavy scheme is making a comeback and people are seeing more value in RBs.

That being said I think that only top tier RBs will be taken early but I don’t think we’ll see any taken in the mid to late 1st round. 

I was being a jerk. You forgot the old narrative my friend?

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11 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I disagree with some of that assessment. Despite NE having the better rushing stats, I don’t believe they have a more dangerous rushing attack than the Steelers.

During the regular season NE’s offense is a 70/30 split between run and pass. Of their 4,418 passing yards, 49% of their receiving yards came from Gronk/Cooks. Jaguars defense ranks 21st in rushing defense, and 1st in passing defense. So the matchup favors Jags defense. 

I also believe that Jags defense has the ability to matchup up with Pats’ playmakers very well. If I were the Jags I would man up Ramsey on Gronk. I would also play their smaller WRs very physical, and bump them when they come off the line. This could disrupt their timing and lead to mistakes. Jags have the ability to matchup really well with the Pats offense. 

Conversely Pats are middling in defense both against the run and pass. So I think we see a healthy dose of Fournette and more Bortles scrambling. These matchups don’t in any way guarantee victory but it appears to be in the Jags’ favor. 

I had a similar conversation with a Steelers' fan before the AFCCG last year. Yes, Bell is superior to any RB on the Patriots. However, it's Bell then nothing. Pitt has several options at WR, but in NE anyone could get the ball at anytime. It could be Gronk, Amendola, Hogan, Cooks (who underachieved this year), White, Burkhead, or Lewis. Again, no one (except Gronk) who is a superstar like AB, but it gives Brady more options. When teams double Gronk, any of the others will be open.

You're correct about playing man and jamming the NE receivers at the line. That worked for Atlanta last year until they got gassed. However, the better the defense, the more success Brady has. Here's the explanation, if your interested... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/01/15/patriots-tom-brady-is-a-freak-and-jaguars-defense-will-only-make-him-better/?utm_term=.74e87d9319d4

NE will score their points. They always do. The key will be the play of Bortles. It doesn't take much to get him rattled. Buffalo's average defense made him look silly. The Jags played their SB last Sunday. 

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Just now, ricko1112 said:

I had a similar conversation with a Steelers' fan before the AFCCG last year. Yes, Bell is superior to any RB on the Patriots. However, it's Bell then nothing. Pitt has several options at WR, but in NE anyone could get the ball at anytime. It could be Gronk, Amendola, Hogan, Cooks (who underachieved this year), White, Burkhead, or Lewis. Again, no one (except Gronk) who is a superstar like AB, but it gives Brady more options. When teams double Gronk, any of the others will be open.

You're correct about playing man and jamming the NE receivers at the line. That worked for Atlanta last year until they got gassed. However, the better the defense, the more success Brady has. Here's the explanation, if your interested... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/01/15/patriots-tom-brady-is-a-freak-and-jaguars-defense-will-only-make-him-better/?utm_term=.74e87d9319d4

NE will score their points. They always do. The key will be the play of Bortles. It doesn't take much to get him rattled. Buffalo's average defense made him look silly. The Jags played their SB last Sunday. 

 

I agree. If Jags D is vulnerable anywhere it's against the run. NE implements a "death by 1000 cuts" technique perfectly. NE is proficient at getting, the one player the other team didn't account for, the ball. However Jags have the front four to apply pressure on Brady consistently. I think that's what'll be the difference maker in that game. I think Jags have enough speed in their LB core to matchup on NE's RBs.

Not to mention they have Belichick's "Kryptonite" on the other side of the field in the form of Coughlin. The Jaguars are almost a mirror image of those NYG teams.

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1 hour ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

 

I agree. If Jags D is vulnerable anywhere it's against the run. NE implements a "death by 1000 cuts" technique perfectly. NE is proficient at getting, the one player the other team didn't account for, the ball. However Jags have the front four to apply pressure on Brady consistently. I think that's what'll be the difference maker in that game. I think Jags have enough speed in their LB core to matchup on NE's RBs.

Not to mention they have Belichick's "Kryptonite" on the other side of the field in the form of Coughlin. The Jaguars are almost a mirror image of those NYG teams.

Yeah, the Coughlin Effect. My brother is a Giants fan, so I hear about it often...

There may be something to that, I don't know. However, I like to think those losses were the result of the luckiest catch in SB history. The "helmet catch." Samuel also had an easy INT go right through his hands. In the 2nd SB Welker dropped a tough pass that he normally would catch. At least those are things I tell myself. :-)

Truth be told, I'm glad he's not on the sideline. Still, the Steelers put up 42 and the 49ers put up 44. Bills held them to 10. That's how I'm going to choose to look at things.

On another note, big changes in Atlanta in the offseason?

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14 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I respectfully disagree. I think that teams utilizing a run heavy scheme is making a comeback and people are seeing more value in RBs.

That being said I think that only top tier RBs will be taken early but I don’t think we’ll see any taken in the mid to late 1st round. 

People are more open to overpaying than they were over most of the last 6-7 years. 

It's still dumb to draft RBs in the 1st though. 

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On 1/14/2018 at 9:02 PM, Doctor Kildare said:

And even in our best years, he still takes more of a beating than most winning quarterbacks. If the fans can see that, why can't our FO? Are they so clever so as to think the principles of football do not apply?

No, its because this characterization of how the OL has played isnt accurate. 

So the reality is that most fans "see" things that arent actually there. 

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Just now, ricko1112 said:

Yeah, the Coughlin Effect. My brother is a Giants fan, so I hear about it often...

There may be something to that, I don't know. However, I like to think those losses were the result of the luckiest catch in SB history. The "helmet catch." Samuel also had an easy INT go right through his hands. In the 2nd SB Welker dropped a tough pass that he normally would catch. At least those are things I tell myself. :-)

Truth be told, I'm glad he's not on the sideline. Still, the Steelers put up 42 and the 49ers put up 44. Bills held them to 10. That's how I'm going to choose to look at things.

On another note, big changes in Atlanta in the offseason?

I think there is something to it, but that's just me. There seems to be a number of fluke plays in the SB. I am thinking that it mainly has to do with adrenaline and nerves. Last SB we had the whiff block by Freeman and the insane catch by Edelman. That's true that the Steelers put up a lot of points. They also have the Brown and Bell. Not to mention some strong WRs that can play physical. 

I am hoping there are some good changes this season. I don't believe there will be a "big splash" acquisition this season. All in all if we clean up the offensive errors and get everyone on the offensive staff in sync we can be contenders again.

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Just now, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

People are more open to overpaying than they were over most of the last 6-7 years. 

It's still dumb to draft RBs in the 1st though. 

I disagree.

I think if the RB is special and fits the scheme/need then you'll see them being taken in the early first round, and it will be a good investment. This kind of coincides with the overpaying portion of your statement.

Conversely I don't think we'll see a lot of RBs taken in the mid to late first round because of the perceived drop off in talent compared to the top tier guys. You'll still get value regardless.

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On 1/14/2018 at 8:19 PM, JerseyNo12 said:

That or the stars are aligning for Brady to win ring #6.

If Pats win the AFCCG, which I expect they will - the SB is gonna be an absolute snooze fest - although I will say it could be an advantage for Vikings to be at home for SB.    I bet the Chamber of Commerce will lose a ton of money if that happens though - the scalpers will be happy!

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Just now, Sidecar Falcon said:

I disagree.

I think if the RB is special and fits the scheme/need then you'll see them being taken in the early first round, and it will be a good investment. This kind of coincides with the overpaying portion of your statement.

Conversely I don't think we'll see a lot of RBs taken in the mid to late first round because of the perceived drop off in talent compared to the top tier guys. You'll still get value regardless.

The NFL hasnt proven all that capable of differentiating "special" backs from the crop. 

By and large, drafting first round RBs is a poor choice for a number of reasons. Especially if you're drafting them in the Top 5-10. That doesnt mean its the worst decision or that its never justifiable (the Cowboys taking Elliot made sense for reasons that ended up being irrelevant) just that it isnt all that smart. 

"Special" backs are routinely drafted on Day 2 and 3. Not outlier successes but actual repeatable predictable success. In the vast majority of situations, it just doesnt make sense to overpay for the position when you can obtain a comparable, if not superior, asset for a fraction of the cost. 

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

The NFL hasnt proven all that capable of differentiating "special" backs from the crop. 

By and large, drafting first round RBs is a poor choice for a number of reasons. Especially if you're drafting them in the Top 5-10. That doesnt mean its the worst decision or that its never justifiable (the Cowboys taking Elliot made sense for reasons that ended up being irrelevant) just that it isnt all that smart. 

"Special" backs are routinely drafted on Day 2 and 3. Not outlier successes but actual repeatable predictable success. In the vast majority of situations, it just doesnt make sense to overpay for the position when you can obtain a comparable, if not superior, asset for a fraction of the cost. 

since I cannot hit the LIKE button - I will just say......AMEN.

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On 1/14/2018 at 6:58 PM, Geaux_Falcons said:

Let's be honest here. Vikings got a lucky play,

This reminded me quite a lot of the 2012 Ravens winning Super Bowl XLVII. A fortunate play at the end of the game to beat the Broncos in the divisional game

and a strong dominating defense throughout the playoffs. Joe played well too.

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13 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I disagree.

I think if the RB is special and fits the scheme/need then you'll see them being taken in the early first round, and it will be a good investment. This kind of coincides with the overpaying portion of your statement.

Conversely I don't think we'll see a lot of RBs taken in the mid to late first round because of the perceived drop off in talent compared to the top tier guys. You'll still get value regardless.

You have to go back to LaDainian Tomlinson for a 1st round RB who were big time contributors to multiple championship runs. They're still bad investments. 

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Just now, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

The NFL hasnt proven all that capable of differentiating "special" backs from the crop. 

By and large, drafting first round RBs is a poor choice for a number of reasons. Especially if you're drafting them in the Top 5-10. That doesnt mean its the worst decision or that its never justifiable (the Cowboys taking Elliot made sense for reasons that ended up being irrelevant) just that it isnt all that smart. 

"Special" backs are routinely drafted on Day 2 and 3. Not outlier successes but actual repeatable predictable success. In the vast majority of situations, it just doesnt make sense to overpay for the position when you can obtain a comparable, if not superior, asset for a fraction of the cost. 

The same could be said for QBs as well. The Draft, in and of itself, is typically a crap shoot. Difference is that drafting an RB early shouldn't set your franchise back 4 years, but a QB might.

I agree that there needs to be a scheme and need fit for an RB to be taken that high. Elliott and Fournette were both great picks, because they filled a need, they fit the scheme, and they were incredibly talented.

I agree that you can find great backs in the latter rounds but that still doesn't change how one perceives the top tier guys. Case in point, Sarquon Barkley, he's pretty much a lock as a top 10 pick (barring some sort of injury). This is based on his talent level and ability in college. If Browns were to select him first overall, I agree, bad pick. If the Giants select him 2nd overall, I think it's a significantly better pick, based on need and potential scheme.

 

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

since I cannot hit the LIKE button - I will just say......AMEN.

I find it so bizarre that theres any pushback at all to this idea. 

Literally every year, a very good (or better) RB (or multiple) is drafted in that Rd 2 - Rd 5 window and proves to be a major difference maker. If you look at the list of "best backs in the league" how many 1st rounders are on there? 2 of the Top 15? Maybe 3 if you include Fournette (which i wouldnt but whatevs)? 

If a team wants to go "all in" on a short-term return from a rookie RB, have at it. But in most circumstances, they're doing something silly. Even in the case of the best successes, its pretty easy to build a reasonable counterfactual that makes the team better. The classic example being the Cowboys. Are people really willing to argue that the Cowboys with Zeke are better than the Cowboys would have been with Jalen Ramsey and Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard? Really!?

Good RBs are plentiful. You can find high quality RB production in the mid rounds, in UDFA, and in free agency overall. 

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