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Are we guaranteed PO spot if we win all but one?

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This post claims the Falcons are guaranteed a playoff spot if we win all but one game -- even if every game we're not in goes against us. I don't have time to simulate it all ... do you think he's right?





Falcons games aside,

According to the NY Times Simulator the falcons are in control of their destiny. If the 'Hawks, Lions, and Rams, Saints, and Panthers games all go against our favor, our situation is actually very simple.

We MUST win ALL of the following games: Falcons @ Saints, Saints @ Falcons, Panthers @ Falcons.

Additionally, we must win ONE of the following games: Falcons @ Bucks, Vikings @ Falcons.

If we do this we are guaranteed a spot. If not we are out. Plain and simple.



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A much simpler way to look at it is to say that 10-6 is likely going to be the NFC cutoff.  At 7-4 we can only really afford to drop one  (none of them can be a division game) to be assured to control our destiny.  Panthers are the only team that has a tie-breaker against us.  Losing to the Vikes would not kill our playoff hopes much but would significantly reduce our chances of being a high seed (which is already a long shot).

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Not read the link but if that one loss is to the Bucs then we take the division although we would need the Panthers to lose another in addition to ourselves and the Saints doing that tonight would fit the bill (as dirty as that makes me feel!)

Sweeping the Saints would mean the best they could do would be match our record and by beating the Panthers and finishing with the same record we would get in ahead of them on division record 4-2 for us and 3-3 for them.


Having that though - screw it all and let's just win out!

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The last line in the original post is not accurate.  "If not we are out" is not an accurate statement.  There are a lot of different scenarios right now.  If we go 4-1 based on the games noted in the OP, it wouldn't matter what happened in any other games.  After the games this week, the scenario can change.  4-1 is only if the worst possible scenario happens where every team in the competition for the division and wildcard win their respective games every single week.  If that happens, they earned their spot. 

For example, if the Seahawks lose to the Eagles, which is likely, we would control our own destiny regardless of what happens with our game today.  We wouldn't have to win out at 4-0 to make the playoffs.  

All of that being said, just win baby, nothing else matters.  Go Falcons!

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