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Unkn0wn

Braves Off-season Thread

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I see the situation similar to Colin Kaepernick. That's a lot of coincidence if 27 teams all suddenly decided to treat free agency the same way, just as 32 teams suddenly deciding that a guy who was a play away from Super Bowl MVP isn't worth signing is odd, particularly in light of the fact that his backup started multiple games this year. This many players getting no offers could be a random situation, but I doubt it strongly. So, I absolutely think there's collusion at play here. I'm also not crying any tears for Scott Boras, who is the person most responsible for this situation due to his behavior in the 2000s. ARod's contract alone should have been the last straw since he manipulated Texas into signing a player for $75 million more than the second best offer.

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From what I understand, it's not lack of offers. Teams are willing to pay money. They've just gotten smart about handing out the 5+ year deals they used to hand out like candy to players on the wrong side of 30. I think the advent of better defensive measurements and a greater understanding of what they mean to wins and losses has meant lumbering sluggers aren't getting the deals they used to get.

If it's collusion, it's the softest, quietest, and most logical collusion ever.

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3 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

Peter Gammons reporting Miami told Atlanta it was Acuna or bust in any Yelich trade. 

Well Gary, looks like BUST it is.

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We'll give away Stanton to the Yankees for nothing but everyone else is going to cost your best prospect.....

I'll just go ahead an put this out there on a personal note. I've never liked Jeter as a person or a player and I hope he fails miserably in Miami.

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23 minutes ago, Ransack said:

We'll give away Stanton to the Yankees for nothing but everyone else is going to cost your best prospect.....

I'll just go ahead an put this out there on a personal note. I've never liked Jeter as a person or a player and I hope he fails miserably in Miami.

Jeter wanted to help his team, the Yankees. 

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5 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

Peter Gammons reporting Miami told Atlanta it was Acuna or bust in any Yelich trade. 

Then they can continue being the organization with poor financials, disgruntled stars & a poor farm system. 

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To be fair, the Marlins should be asking for Acuna. And the Braves are correct for rejecting that. That's part of negotiation. 

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8 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

Peter Gammons reporting Miami told Atlanta it was Acuna or bust in any Yelich trade. 

I saw that and laughed at it for a good five minutes.

New Marlins ownership, same as the old Marlins ownership.

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12 hours ago, K26dp said:

From what I understand, it's not lack of offers. Teams are willing to pay money. They've just gotten smart about handing out the 5+ year deals they used to hand out like candy to players on the wrong side of 30. I think the advent of better defensive measurements and a greater understanding of what they mean to wins and losses has meant lumbering sluggers aren't getting the deals they used to get.

If it's collusion, it's the softest, quietest, and most logical collusion ever.

It's going to be an interesting collective bargaining agreement negotiation. Everyone seems aware that players aren't getting paid early in their careers when they're most valuable.

I found myself thinking yesterday that the Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada trade would be reported much differently today. Millwood's WAAadj was negative (-0.1 for five straight years, actually) his whole time as a Brave. And it was almost identical every year from 2003-2010. His case circles back to our discussion last night in that his career WAR 30.7, but his WAAadj was -1.7. His career waaWL% of .514 is probably the correct evaluation of who he was, a slightly above average player who was consistently overpaid, earning right at $90 million for his career. For that, we got back a respectable catching prospect. His WAR for us was 3.4 over three years, which isn't much, but his waaWL% for us was .498. So, there wasn't a huge difference in performance with one player costing us $775k over that time and the other getting paid $20.9 million. In hindsight, that's the early warning signal trade for how baseball got smarter about salaries, even if it was a shotgun marriage due to Maddux accepting arbitration.

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Chipper is at 98.5% in the HOF voting. That's on pace to be the 2nd highest in MLB history. Only Griffey Jr topped the 99% mark. Chipper could still reach that level. Tom Seaver is the only other player to ever hit 98%.

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8 hours ago, jidady said:

It's going to be an interesting collective bargaining agreement negotiation. Everyone seems aware that players aren't getting paid early in their careers when they're most valuable.

I found myself thinking yesterday that the Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada trade would be reported much differently today. Millwood's WAAadj was negative (-0.1 for five straight years, actually) his whole time as a Brave. And it was almost identical every year from 2003-2010. His case circles back to our discussion last night in that his career WAR 30.7, but his WAAadj was -1.7. His career waaWL% of .514 is probably the correct evaluation of who he was, a slightly above average player who was consistently overpaid, earning right at $90 million for his career. For that, we got back a respectable catching prospect. His WAR for us was 3.4 over three years, which isn't much, but his waaWL% for us was .498. So, there wasn't a huge difference in performance with one player costing us $775k over that time and the other getting paid $20.9 million. In hindsight, that's the early warning signal trade for how baseball got smarter about salaries, even if it was a shotgun marriage due to Maddux accepting arbitration.

You should write an article on this. I admit I hadn't thought of that trade this way.

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54 minutes ago, K26dp said:

You should write an article on this. I admit I hadn't thought of that trade this way.

Take it with my blessing if you want to explore the idea at some point. I recently talked to NBC's Hardball Talk about some baseball writing, but their quote is about 20% of my ask.

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1 hour ago, Unkn0wn said:

According to DOB both TP and Perez have accepted new roles within the organization. 

Good. I want them to be Braves for life.

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DOB said it seems like the Braves may add a big bat even if it isn't Yelich. They're apparently monitoring Todd Frazier. If he grows impatient the Braves may provide him a 2 year offer. Frazier can build more value and try again plus Riley gets more development time.

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1 hour ago, Unkn0wn said:

DOB said it seems like the Braves may add a big bat even if it isn't Yelich. They're apparently monitoring Todd Frazier. If he grows impatient the Braves may provide him a 2 year offer. Frazier can build more value and try again plus Riley gets more development time.

Oh how nice, lets just sign a guy that has only hit .220/.322/.448 (.770) the last two seasons combined. Yeah, he hits homeruns and plays good defense, but ugh. Camargo hit .299/.331/.452 (.783) last year with excellent defense.

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I wouldn't be so casually dismissive of "he hits home runs and plays good defense". I wouldn't go crazy after him, but he'd be of value.

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1 hour ago, K26dp said:

Someone at MLB.com is optimistic about the Braves, naming them the #1 team that could surprise in 2018. 

I agree. I think the Braves could surprise people this year.

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They can surprise but it's hard to say with such youth. I think we'll be better than expected and lay the foundation to really make noise in 2019.

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42 minutes ago, Unkn0wn said:

They can surprise but it's hard to say with such youth. I think we'll be better than expected and lay the foundation to really make noise in 2019.

Yes, 2019 is the year. But I honestly think they'll be pushing 80 wins in 2018 and be a surprise when everyone is expecting another 90 loss season.

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