Our biggest need is a RG (Wes Schweitzer replacement). What r your thoughts on our biggest needs before the trade deadline?

[Vandy]

2 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Honestly, this post is all sorts of broke. 

1) Are you aware of a way to sign "the best" OL players in Week 9 of the NFL season with ~$800k in cap space? Really? 

2) Our run game has been consistently effective and productive when it has been called upon. Its been more effective this year than last year in most available metrics. That isnt a concern. 

3) The notion that Schweitzer "probably wouldnt make any other NFL roster as of today" is embarrassingly out of touch. Are you kidding me with this? Do you watch NFL football? Have you watched the offensive lines in Seattle or Houston or half a dozen other spots around the league? Get out of here with this nonsense. 

Not good, Stone-fan. Not good. 

Ouchie Wah-Wah!

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

52 minutes ago, R_The_Great said:

Wes is getting his *** kicked out there and you know **** well matt Ryan is releasing the ball earlier and shuffling his feet alot faster than last year. There is not a qb in the nfl that would feel comfortable with Wes in front of them.

 

It's not wes fault, this is his first time ever playing guard, but look at the best offensive lines, they don't have a 7th round guy who is only there because of no other option.  Him beating out garland is not hard to do, who can't beat out garland for a starting oline spot?

 

Look at the cowboys, literally all first rounders on the line besides leal Collins who was considered a first round talent

Look at the chiefs. First round talent and great vet pick ups like schwartz.  

Ryan's time to throw this year is 2.67. Was 2.64 last year. So no, he isnt releasing the ball earlier. 

As for the rest of this nonsensical goal post shifting, yeah we aren't playing that game. I said this OL was good enough. And it has been. If you want to now start talking about The Best offensive lines, take it somewhere else. But before you get there, make sure you actually check your facts. The Chiefs have exactly one 1st rounder on their OL....the mediocre Eric Fisher. They've got an undrafted LG, a 6th round RG, a 6th round Center and a FA RT. 

The entire league has a shortage of high quality offensive linemen. Thats been the case for 5-10 years now. And really, none of that has anything to do with a kid seeing his first significant action and performing inconsistently. 

Again, get out of here with this. 

[papachaz]

4 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Honestly, this post is all sorts of broke. 

1) Are you aware of a way to sign "the best" OL players in Week 9 of the NFL season with ~$800k in cap space? Really? 

2) Our run game has been consistently effective and productive when it has been called upon. Its been more effective this year than last year in most available metrics. That isnt a concern. 

3) The notion that Schweitzer "probably wouldnt make any other NFL roster as of today" is embarrassingly out of touch. Are you kidding me with this? Do you watch NFL football? Have you watched the offensive lines in Seattle or Houston or half a dozen other spots around the league? Get out of here with this nonsense. 

Not good, Stone-fan. Not good. 

can you guys PLEASE fix it so we can like your posts???? this one deserves so many I can't count that high  

[ryanadonis]

1 hour ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Ryan's time to throw this year is 2.67. Was 2.64 last year. So no, he isnt releasing the ball earlier. 

As for the rest of this nonsensical goal post shifting, yeah we aren't playing that game. I said this OL was good enough. And it has been. If you want to now start talking about The Best offensive lines, take it somewhere else. But before you get there, make sure you actually check your facts. The Chiefs have exactly one 1st rounder on their OL....the mediocre Eric Fisher. They've got an undrafted LG, a 6th round RG, a 6th round Center and a FA RT. 

The entire league has a shortage of high quality offensive linemen. Thats been the case for 5-10 years now. And really, none of that has anything to do with a kid seeing his first significant action and performing inconsistently. 

Again, get out of here with this. 

You were able to find Matt Ryan's time to throw?  Thats an interesting stat to calculate.  Is Matt Ryan putting up 40 points a game and looking like an MVP this year?

[Intellectually Honest]

5 hours ago, Vandy said:

Perhaps Because I actually watch the games?

So now you are assuming I don't. Any other assumptions you want to make?

[Intellectually Honest]

11 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Last year, we were 10th in adjusted line yards. This year, we're 6th.
Last year, we were 17th in power success &. This year, we're 7th. 
Last year, we were 23rd in stuffed percentage. This year, we're 11th.
Last year, we were 7th and 3rd in 2nd level runs and open field runs respectively. This year, we're 2nd and 3rd. 
Last year, we were 23rd in adjusted sack rate, this year we're 14th.
Last year we were 27th in QB Hits, this year we're 12th

For starters. 

Ok. So if the line is that good and it is not a lack of time in the pocket or run blocking, why is the team doing worse offensively if the blocking is supposed to be improved, assuming what you are saying is true? Not sure where you are getting your info from since you didn't provide a source. Also the stats like QB hits wouldn't reflect far more 3 and outs. So if the offense is on the field less, would also mean less QB hits. Longer sustained drives would mean more opportunities that opposing defenses would make plays.

Edited November 2, 2017 by Intellectually Honest

[TheFatboi]

2 minutes ago, Intellectually Honest said:

What does 2016 have to do with 2017? People have good and bad years. When I was talking about evidence, I mean't this year. Clearly.

Clearly you didn’t read his entire post. He made comparative evidence from last year and this year. He wasn’t just talking about last year. The line was good last year yes? By comparative evidence the line is better in some categories this year than last year. And on par in others. That’s evidenced enough. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And I don’t need numbers to tell me the line is playing well. The OFFENSE hasn’t been playing well but the line has overall. 

[Intellectually Honest]

Just now, TheFatboi said:

Clearly you didn’t read his entire post. He made comparative evidence from last year and this year. He wasn’t just talking about last year. The line was good last year yes? By comparative evidence the line is better in some categories this year than last year. And on par in others. That’s evidenced enough. Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. And I don’t need numbers to tell me the line is playing well. The OFFENSE hasn’t been playing well but the line has overall. 

That is why I edited before you posted. Scroll up.

[Vandy]

8 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

Ok. So if the line is that good and it is not a lack of time in the pocket or run blocking, why is the team doing worse offensively if the blocking is supposed to be improved, assuming what you are saying is true? Not sure where you are getting your info from since you didn't provide a source. Also the stats like QB hits wouldn't reflect far more 3 and outs. So if the offense is on the field less, would also mean less QB hits. Longer sustained drives would mean more opportunities that opposing defenses would make plays.

LOL 

[Vandy]

10 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

So now you are assuming I don't. Any other assumptions you want to make?

I was giving you the benefit of doubt, hoping you don’t. Because you are embarrassing yourself if you do. 

I’m not a PFF Guy at all, but you can find more data if you wish. In fact, you’ve been given plenty already in this thread. Yet you keep saying dumb gunk. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-average-grade-week-5

[Born Again Georgian]

I guess the o-line is causing all of the dropped passes and tipped for INTs this season?  That's the difference between the offense last year and this year.

[Intellectually Honest]

2 hours ago, Vandy said:

I was giving you the benefit of doubt, hoping you don’t. Because you are embarrassing yourself if you do. 

I’m not a PFF Guy at all, but you can find more data if you wish. In fact, you’ve been given plenty already in this thread. Yet you keep saying dumb gunk. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-average-grade-week-5

How is PFF's opinion "evidence"? I am not sure where this embarrassment that you think I should feel is coming from. They aren't giving 'data'. They are giving a grade. Kind of like when teams are graded with "Power" rankings.

[Vandy]

14 minutes ago, Intellectually Honest said:

How is PFF's opinion "evidence"? I am not sure where this embarrassment that you think I should feel is coming from. They aren't giving 'data'. They are giving a grade. Kind of like when teams are graded with "Power" rankings.

LOL......

I should have known better than go down this path ......

[Peyton]

I don't really see how anybody who watches these games can think the O line is the problem with the offense.

In the losses, the Falcons haven't gotten receivers open in key moments, and if they did, Ryan missed them or they dropped the ball.

The offensive issues are really that simple.

[papachaz]

25 minutes ago, Peyton said:

I don't really see how anybody who watches these games can think the O line is the problem with the offense.

In the losses, the Falcons haven't gotten receivers open in key moments, and if they did, Ryan missed them or they dropped the ball.

The offensive issues are really that simple.

and you'd think the simple minded people would REALLY appreciate that, and yet somehow they don't..........  

[Intellectually Honest]

32 minutes ago, Vandy said:

LOL......

I should have known better than go down this path ......

Well you are acting like you have scientific data when you don't. Should have just stuck to your opinion and left it at that. Anyway, I'll give an olive branch, i'll assume that the Oline overall is better, but I still think the RG is a huge problem as well as the depth. If any of the starters go down (save the RG), it is a huge dropoff. Can we agree with that?

Edited November 2, 2017 by Intellectually Honest

[Vandy]

1 hour ago, Intellectually Honest said:

Well you are acting like you have scientific data when you don't. Should have just stuck to your opinion and left it at that. Anyway, I'll give an olive branch, i'll assume that the Oline overall is better, but I still think the RG is a huge problem as well as the depth. If any of the starters go down (save the RG), it is a huge dropoff. Can we agree with that?

No.

RG is not a HUGE problem.

Also, no team can realistically expect no drop off if a starter goes down, That’s just you being silly....it’s an issue for all other good OL’s such as Dallas, Philly, Oakland as well as Atlanta.

Plus that wasn’t your initial point anyway, you were whining about the unit’s performance in 2017, which I clearly rebuked. They can play better, but I stand by what I said.....they are an nfl top 10 unit.....and Our bigger problems are elsewhere.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

14 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

Ok. So if the line is that good and it is not a lack of time in the pocket or run blocking, why is the team doing worse offensively if the blocking is supposed to be improved, assuming what you are saying is true? Not sure where you are getting your info from since you didn't provide a source. Also the stats like QB hits wouldn't reflect far more 3 and outs. So if the offense is on the field less, would also mean less QB hits. Longer sustained drives would mean more opportunities that opposing defenses would make plays.

My stats are taken from either profootballreference (which collects the raw data from NFL gamebooks) or Football Outsiders. The time-to-throw stat comes from the NFL's Next Gen stats site. 

1) Why was Matt Ryan an MVP last year but isnt this year? Simple regression to the mean. Anyone (ANYONE) who thought that Matt Ryan's new normal was 9+ YPA , 35+ TDs and 7- interceptions was following themselves. His performance last year was a massive outlier. Regression was absolutely inevitable. 

2) Why is the team doing worse offensively? Regression to the mean. However, the underlying stats don't support the idea that the offense is doing much worse. The YPA numbers are down a bit but remain pretty high. The YPP numbers are ~10% lower than they were last year and remain near the top of the league. We actually average more plays per drive this year than we did last year. We average 1.2 fewer yards per drive than we did last year but we remain in the Top 2. We're currently on pace to have 1012 offensive plays this year....last year we were at 1031. While the pace of play has slowed a bit, we're still seeing the same type of volume that we saw last year. 

3) Why arent we scoring more points? Honestly, a combination of flukey stuff and poor execution. Our percentage of drives ending in a turnover has doubled. A number of those turnovers have been weird carroms or drops or flukey plays. You cant really control that stuff.

Another reason would be how poorly we've done with average starting line of scrimmage. Last year, we started our average drive at the 29.3 yard line. This year, it's 24.2. That would have been 31st last year. Why is that happening? 1) The defense can't seem to create turnovers without also committing crushing penalties on the same play AND 2) Andre Roberts has been a nightmare on kickoffs and punts. 

 

How is any of this stuff going to be fixed? IDK. The offense needs to hope for better luck and tighten up the poor execution. The defense needs to stop giving good plays away because of stupid calls away from the ball. The team in general needs a bit more of the nice side of variance. Last year, we had a good deal of positive variance. If that stuff starts happening again, you'll see a return to something closer to last year. But even then, its highly unlikely this team repeats its statistical output of a year ago. That offense was a Top 7 offense in league history. You're always going to regress to the mean following that sort of season. 

@R_The_Great your question is addressed in this post.

[Trust Me Son Since 70]

On 11/1/2017 at 10:51 AM, jj00100 said:

I don't know squat about this team because i thought Wes was a 5th round pick instead of a 6th? LOL. u r funny boy. I am a diehard falcons fan that has watched almost every game since the 90s with Chris Miller at  QB. 

OG and a reliable sure handed TE (Don't know y we let Jacob Tamme go) is what this team is lacking and are the most important needs for this team. I think Austin Hooper is still Raw and has a lot of upside I do, but at this moment of his career, he should take a back seat. i think Tamme wouldve been better for this team at this moment right now and if he played in the superbowl.

As for Wes, he's gone up against some tough DTs and has gotten destroyed. If you give Matt Ryan time to throw, he will carve opposing defenses up.  But his mentality right now is kinda screwed up cause he has no faith in his OLINE. he panics when that 3 second window is up, he has no faith in his OLINE to protect and so he goes to panic mode. You should go watch film on Wes, he's gettin pushed back like it's nothing and DTs are getting to Ryan easily.

I like how Matt Ryan has adjusted and has finally been running for yardage when nothing is there, i hope he keeps doing that as it'll help out our team and keep the chains moving. 

 

You've created the same topic 4 times in 3 days and run to the mods like a baby when someone calls your threads trash.. grow up. 

[Vandy]

44 minutes ago, Trust Me Son Since 70 said:

You've created the same topic 4 times in 3 days and run to the mods like a baby when someone calls your threads trash.. grow up. 

 

[papachaz]

1 hour ago, Vandy said:

 

[jj00100]

4 hours ago, Trust Me Son Since 70 said:

You've created the same topic 4 times in 3 days and run to the mods like a baby when someone calls your threads trash.. grow up. 

Biggest need are

1. OG,  then

2. TE.

If u guys think we need bigger needs somewhere else please let me know. 

[Intellectually Honest]

20 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

My stats are taken from either profootballreference (which collects the raw data from NFL gamebooks) or Football Outsiders. The time-to-throw stat comes from the NFL's Next Gen stats site. 

1) Why was Matt Ryan an MVP last year but isnt this year? Simple regression to the mean. Anyone (ANYONE) who thought that Matt Ryan's new normal was 9+ YPA , 35+ TDs and 7- interceptions was following themselves. His performance last year was a massive outlier. Regression was absolutely inevitable. 

2) Why is the team doing worse offensively? Regression to the mean. However, the underlying stats don't support the idea that the offense is doing much worse. The YPA numbers are down a bit but remain pretty high. The YPP numbers are ~10% lower than they were last year and remain near the top of the league. We actually average more plays per drive this year than we did last year. We average 1.2 fewer yards per drive than we did last year but we remain in the Top 2. We're currently on pace to have 1012 offensive plays this year....last year we were at 1031. While the pace of play has slowed a bit, we're still seeing the same type of volume that we saw last year. 

3) Why arent we scoring more points? Honestly, a combination of flukey stuff and poor execution. Our percentage of drives ending in a turnover has doubled. A number of those turnovers have been weird carroms or drops or flukey plays. You cant really control that stuff.

Another reason would be how poorly we've done with average starting line of scrimmage. Last year, we started our average drive at the 29.3 yard line. This year, it's 24.2. That would have been 31st last year. Why is that happening? 1) The defense can't seem to create turnovers without also committing crushing penalties on the same play AND 2) Andre Roberts has been a nightmare on kickoffs and punts. 

 

How is any of this stuff going to be fixed? IDK. The offense needs to hope for better luck and tighten up the poor execution. The defense needs to stop giving good plays away because of stupid calls away from the ball. The team in general needs a bit more of the nice side of variance. Last year, we had a good deal of positive variance. If that stuff starts happening again, you'll see a return to something closer to last year. But even then, its highly unlikely this team repeats its statistical output of a year ago. That offense was a Top 7 offense in league history. You're always going to regress to the mean following that sort of season. 

@R_The_Great your question is addressed in this post.

On point  1. Regression is not necessary. I would agree it probably would be the case that Ryan would regress given the fact he doesn't have a history of doing that well, there would give a reasonable expectation to not assume he would continue to play to that such high degree.

On point  2. Ok

On point 3. Ok.

So basically your thesis is about execution. Do you believe it is based on complacency and/or coaching?

[Intellectually Honest]

20 hours ago, Vandy said:

No.

RG is not a HUGE problem.

Also, no team can realistically expect no drop off if a starter goes down, That’s just you being silly....it’s an issue for all other good OL’s such as Dallas, Philly, Oakland as well as Atlanta.

Plus that wasn’t your initial point anyway, you were whining about the unit’s performance in 2017, which I clearly rebuked. They can play better, but I stand by what I said.....they are an nfl top 10 unit.....and Our bigger problems are elsewhere.

I am not claiming there would be no dropoff between starters and backups. I am talking about a large drop. The point is that if a team has good depth, if a starter needs to be replaced, the backup wouldn't be such a downgrade to be a liability.

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

3 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

On point  1. Regression is not necessary. I would agree it probably would be the case that Ryan would regress given the fact he doesn't have a history of doing that well, there would give a reasonable expectation to not assume he would continue to play to that such high degree.

On point  2. Ok

On point 3. Ok.

So basically your thesis is about execution. Do you believe it is based on complacency and/or coaching?

No, regression was necessary. A near statistical certainty. Its the nature of the game. And truth be told...the offense hasnt even regressed that much. This year's offense is currently 7th in overall offensive DVOA (+12.1%)...15th in passing DVOA, 4th in rush DVOA. Last year we were 1st (24%)...1st in passing, 6th in rushing. And who knows what impact the picks/drops/flukey stuff has had on our individual DVOA metrics. 

I don't think its about complacency at all, TBH. I think Sarkisian shares some of the blame but I think its largely because of natural variance. The same cast of WRs is dropping the ball more. We've had worse turnover luck. Those things happen in the normal variation of the game. Its a dynamic environment with a multitude of factors influencing every play. There isnt always an identifiable correctable "why."