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2017 MLB Draft


Unknøwn
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12 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

MLB.com analysis

5. Atlanta Braves: RHP Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt
Callis: Wright, who was rumored to be the front-runner to go No. 1 as recently as a week ago, offers the best combination of floor and ceiling at the top of the Draft. He's a future front-line starter who should get to Atlanta very quickly. Interesting that after all the talk of clubs cutting deals -- which could theoretically cause top prospects to fall -- the consensus five best players went with the first five picks.

He should be ready sooner rather than later, my best guess is some time next year. A 2018 rotation with Teheran (hopefully he'll turn things around), Newcomb, Sims, Wright, and Folty would be nice to see.

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54 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

He should be ready sooner rather than later, my best guess is some time next year. A 2018 rotation with Teheran (hopefully he'll turn things around), Newcomb, Sims, Wright, and Folty would be nice to see.

 

39 minutes ago, Unkn0wn said:

The addition of Wright could make Sims that much more available in a trade.

Weigel, Allard, and Soroka all also in the mix. Gohara and Fried outside possibilities.

I also think Coppy will go hard again after a young controllable veteran starter in a trade, as he tried with Sale and Archer this offseason.

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18 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

@K26dp, where do you think Keegan Thompson will be drafted? Which round? He's the 134th overall prospect according to MLB.com. Kid is a stud pitcher from Auburn with 4 very good pitches, his curveball being the best of the bunch. I'm paying special attention to him because he's a local kid from Cullman HS where I live. Last year the Tigers took him in the 33rd round but that was after he missed all of 2016 due to TJS.

Cubs took him in the 3rd round. Was so hoping for the Braves.

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Just now, jidady said:

I like the pick, but I wouldn't fit in with Braves management. I prioritize high floors over high ceilings. Something I love about Wright is that he's both.

When you draft lower ceiling players because they've got a higher floor you end up with years of pathetic drafts as the Braves just went through. You pick guys like Minor, Hursh and Gilmartin in the 1st round and wonder why your farm system ends up completely devoid of elite talent.

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20 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

When you draft lower ceiling players because they've got a higher floor you end up with years of pathetic drafts as the Braves just went through. You pick guys like Minor, Hursh and Gilmartin in the 1st round and wonder why your farm system ends up completely devoid of elite talent.

The risk you run with high floor prioritization is that they may also turn out to be low ceiling. That happened way too often during the Wren years which led to the farm system being among the worst. Meanwhile, the risk of prioritizing high ceiling is that their floor is too low to pan out.

IMO I much prefer the Coppy strategy over the Wren strategy. Sure, a lot of these prospects won't pan out since their floors will turn out to be too low but the ones who do develop will be much higher quality players than Minor or Peraza.

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12 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

The risk you run with high floor prioritization is that they may also turn out to be low ceiling. That happened way too often during the Wren years which led to the farm system being among the worst. Meanwhile, the risk of prioritizing high ceiling is that their floor is too low to pan out.

IMO I much prefer the Coppy strategy over the Wren strategy. Sure, a lot of these prospects won't pan out since their floors will turn out to be too low but the ones who do develop will be much higher quality players than Minor or Peraza.

Agreed. Take the elite high ceiling players every time.

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2 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

The risk you run with high floor prioritization is that they may also turn out to be low ceiling. That happened way too often during the Wren years which led to the farm system being among the worst. Meanwhile, the risk of prioritizing high ceiling is that their floor is too low to pan out.

IMO I much prefer the Coppy strategy over the Wren strategy. Sure, a lot of these prospects won't pan out since their floors will turn out to be too low but the ones who do develop will be much higher quality players than Minor or Peraza.

Actually, the WAR on Wren's drafted players is stunning. It's quality vs. quantity. Wren did a great job in developing several impact players at the major league level. He drafted Heyward and Freeman his final year in charge of the draft as special assistant. Then, as GM, his first year had Kimbrel, his next year had Minor, and 2010 had Andrelton and Gattis. 2012 had Alex Wood Those are all bingos in the Tarantino parlance.  2011 is the only draft where he didn't get anybody that's had an impact on the MLB level, and that may have looked different if JR Graham hadn't gotten hurt.

What he failed to do was draft a good pool of potential MLB players, ones good enough to entice other teams to make deals. And as I mentioned yesterday, part of that was because those a couple of those years were simply barren of MLB talent. Wren took the fall for that.

But I do like that you and I are consistent about these discussions over the years. :)

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16 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

Baseball draft is such a crap shoot and the longest to take players to develop into pros.  

It's almost a pointless exercise. I was re-reading an article from 2005 that famously analyzed draft history. You can read it here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4026

The gist is that the only pick that matters in the draft is the first one. The graph bottoms out quickly. It's a demoralizing evaluation of the realities of building through the draft.

But I've been bitter ever since Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg busted out. With that name, he should have been a legend.

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