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ramonezy

Question: Do players' draft projections really change that much during the process?

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This might be such a simplistic question it's considered stupid. The college game isn't big in my neck of the woods, but draft season is always entertaining for me cuz I get to see these new players that I've never even heard of before. However there is something that confuses me that I would want you guys to clarify... after the combine, do players' projected rounds really change that much or is it really just for the media to not be calling the same names repeatedly for months till the draft reaches? If there's someone here with NFL experience or knowledge of how a war room works, how soon is a team's draft board set?

I find it amazing that players with 3rd/4th/5th round projections after the combine, after a few weeks of spin become 1st round locks and vice versa... early in the process players like Tim Williams, Malik McDowell, Montravious Adams, Chris Wormley would never reach us... now I'm seeing mocks with them in the 3rd and 4th rounds. I'm seeing players that weren't even invited to the combine like Samson Ebukam as high as 4th round and Tanoh, Rivers, Willis now considered Top 50 players. Is there a part of the process I'm missing?

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1 hour ago, ramonezy said:

This might be such a simplistic question it's considered stupid. The college game isn't big in my neck of the woods, but draft season is always entertaining for me cuz I get to see these new players that I've never even heard of before. However there is something that confuses me that I would want you guys to clarify... after the combine, do players' projected rounds really change that much or is it really just for the media to not be calling the same names repeatedly for months till the draft reaches? If there's someone here with NFL experience or knowledge of how a war room works, how soon is a team's draft board set?

I find it amazing that players with 3rd/4th/5th round projections after the combine, after a few weeks of spin become 1st round locks and vice versa... early in the process players like Tim Williams, Malik McDowell, Montravious Adams, Chris Wormley would never reach us... now I'm seeing mocks with them in the 3rd and 4th rounds. I'm seeing players that weren't even invited to the combine like Samson Ebukam as high as 4th round and Tanoh, Rivers, Willis now considered Top 50 players. Is there a part of the process I'm missing?

I think individual workouts can change a lot, as well as pro days. The combine is obviously the big stock shifter, though.

Really though I think the radical change we see from the media is more them picking up on "Oh, teams actually really like this guy", because of a lot of attention being drawn by them at the two aforementioned events. 

Vandy and Ezekiel 25:17 like this

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It's really hard to know what to believe ... it's lying season in the NFL.  IMO, players can hurt their draft stock and slide some but overall I think the rankings have been set for a while.  Scouts have been looking at these players long before draft publications were printed.     

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I think for the vast majority of prospects, there isn't a drastic change in where they are slated to go.  I think the combine and pro days DO cause a handful of prospects each year to rise and fall dramatically however.

In my opinion, it seems like 1st and 2nd round talent is 1st and 2nd round talent and the rounds 3-7 guys are the ones that tend to move up and down a lot.

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1 hour ago, Lornoth said:

I think individual workouts can change a lot, as well as pro days. The combine is obviously the big stock shifter, though.

Really though I think the radical change we see from the media is more them picking up on "Oh, teams actually really like this guy", because of a lot of attention being drawn by them at the two aforementioned events. 

Yeah, I am in the camp that the Sports Media no longer does it's job and tend to follow what the teams say as to doing their homework before the fact.

On top of that, when it comes to drafting it's a form/fit per team so even if they did know the players it would still comeback to the coaches/GMs choice.

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I don't think so.

I think what the media and fans perceive about prospects and what individual teams perceive about a prospects is different.

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DO you mean for the teams or the various draft websites and blogs?

For the teams, no not really. The boards are pretty set before all the combine and workouts get in place. If the combine and/or workout don't match what a team expected then they may relook at the tape. The biggest thing at the combine or workouts that will change an individual teams ranking on a player is something we, the fans, will never see and that's the interviews. 

For the websites/blogs, yeah they change stuff all the time to keep their site relevant :/

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No. The projection changes are just the draft coverage media catching up with the NFL's real views on players.

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2 hours ago, Kayoh said:

No. The projection changes are just the draft coverage media catching up with the NFL's real views on players.

yep

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Listening to GMs and what not on nfl radio, combine pro day etc don't usually change much. It either makes them look back at the tape if they have real good numbers, or could hurt some players. Medical and interviews are most important part of combine process. They said pro days have even less value because tracks are fast, times are hand times and workouts are scripted to make player look good. Good GMs live and die by the tape. When you don't, picks like Gholston (Jets) happen.

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