Joey563

Falcons looking to move up from 31st spot

103 posts in this topic

I wouldnt trade up because the more picks you have the better chance of landing a good prospect. However, TD has had success moving up and Quinn & staff really know how to develop players while putting them in positions to succeed. All we can do is trust the process.

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17 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

With all due respect, walterfootball is kinda trashballs, man. 

This is true. Fact is, almost all of them out there are written by folks who know less than some of the better posters here. 

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1 minute ago, Vandy said:

Both sides of ball needs more than just one or two players.....we need depth.

yeah, I am not really a fan of moving up - if I truly felt we were getting a dynamic force edge rusher, I would do it - just have not seen a guy that I believe is a sure thing - some of these guys - Barnett, Harris, Willis, Taco(no visit), Reddick, Rivers - might turn out but some might bust as well and I don't have strong convictions about any of them - all have their strengths and weaknesses.

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39 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

The fact that he's been the GM for 9 seasons suggests that he's significantly better than average. And the fact that those 9 seasons have been pretty successful also suggests that he's better than average. 

Yes, the Patriots frequently move back to accumulate picks. That can be a very effective strategy. I like it a lot. But that doesnt mean the failure to do that is a huge deal. At the end of the day, this FO under Dimitroff has been pretty effective. They've done a good job identifying cornerstone talent at key positions and the last 3 drafts have yielded quality players and depth throughout the roster. 

 

What was it...the 2015 season when every single player drafted in 2012 was no longer with the team? Something like that. His tenure does make him certainly above average but he's had more than his share of misses.

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13 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

yeah, I am not really a fan of moving up - if I truly felt we were getting a dynamic force edge rusher, I would do it - just have not seen a guy that I believe is a sure thing - some of these guys - Barnett, Harris, Willis, Taco(no visit), Reddick, Rivers - might turn out but some might bust as well and I don't have strong convictions about any of them - all have their strengths and weaknesses.

Plus one or more of those guys will fall to us at 31 anyway....

if Quinn/TD think they see something that distinguishes one over the pack Then we know with TD's history of quick trigger will move up to get that player ......but that's almost always a mistake. I prefer trading back in this draft more than any other in recent memory...unless someone unexpectedly drops, you could get Same quality with pick 45 you could get at 31....

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Moving up in the past has worked well 67% of the time. This time TD just needs to stay put. Somebody we need will fall.

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22 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Plus one or more of those guys will fall to us at 31 anyway....

if Quinn/TD think they see something that distinguishes one over the pack Then we know with TD's history of quick trigger will move up to get that player ......but that's almost always a mistake. I prefer trading back in this draft more than any other in recent memory...unless someone unexpectedly drops, you could get Same quality with pick 45 you could get at 31....

You would not say JULIO or TRU were mistakes though would you?  surely not Vandy.

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7 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

You would not say JULIO or TRU were mistakes though would you?  surely not Vandy.

Everyone of course Loves them both including me, but I wasn't a fan of either trade .....and we did take a huge step backwards in 2013-14 and a big reason was lack of depth caused by these trades...

and I love Tru, but actually liked Xavier Rhodes a lot back then too

but glad we are where we are now with both of them, so yes, they both worked out.

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Just now, Vandy said:

Everyone of course Loves them both including me, but I wasn't a fan of either trade .....and we did take a huge step backwards in 2013-14 and a big reason was lack of depth caused by these trades...

and I love Tru, but actually liked Xavier Rhodes a lot back then too

but glad we are where we are now with both of them, so yes, they both worked out.

disagree somewhat - 2012 draft was very horrid - sure we took bad players - Konz/Holmes in particular - and we could have taken some better guys - NO DOUBT - but that draft was rather putrid overall - good chance whoever we took in that draft would have busted.

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51 minutes ago, ShanghaiDirtyBird said:

What was it...the 2015 season when every single player drafted in 2012 was no longer with the team? Something like that. His tenure does make him certainly above average but he's had more than his share of misses.

Name a gm who has not.

In fact In terms of drafting even the best GMs will have more misses than hits.

We had a phenomenal draft class last year.....but it is very....very rare to get more than 2 starters out of a draft.

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50 minutes ago, ShanghaiDirtyBird said:

What was it...the 2015 season when every single player drafted in 2012 was no longer with the team? Something like that. His tenure does make him certainly above average but he's had more than his share of misses.

This happens across the league, to good teams and bad. The fact that the smallest class he drafted with the least amount of available draft capital produced a full washout shouldnt be surprising. 

The draft simply is not a high percentage exercise. And in general, fans overrate the draft while underrating the more important part of talent acquisition: player development. It's no coincidence that our draft fortunes have gone from average to OMG with the addition of a coaching staff that is well known for and focused on player development. 

 

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Just now, g-dawg said:

disagree somewhat - 2012 draft was very horrid - sure we took bad players - Konz/Holmes in particular - and we could have taken some better guys - NO DOUBT - but that draft was rather putrid overall - good chance whoever we took in that draft would have busted.

Very true. Konz pick was very logical pick, actually, as was trading up for Sam baker in 2008. We just drafted the wrong guys (Ben jones instead of Konz, Duane Brown instead of baker)

But those trades can also cause you to seriously reach for guys like Holmes..... 

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2 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This happens across the league, to good teams and bad. The fact that the smallest class he drafted with the least amount of available draft capital produced a full washout shouldnt be surprising. 

The draft simply is not a high percentage exercise. And in general, fans overrate the draft while underrating the more important part of talent acquisition: player development. It's no coincidence that our draft fortunes have gone from average to OMG with the addition of a coaching staff that is well known for and focused on player development. 

 

We'll never know, but I Seriously doubt current coaching staff could have done much better with some of the crap we drafted 2009-2012....

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1 hour ago, Vandy said:

Both sides of ball needs more than just one or two players.....we need depth.

I don't even think about it like that, although I think its a good approach. 

The way I see it is that good talent evaluators and developers can get surplus return from picks across the draft. So given the indications that our FO/Coaching Staff is in a good place with talent development and identification, why wouldnt we want to simply pick more players? Given that we know that the draft itself is a high-variance exercise, why wouldnt we want more player?

And i mean, not for nothing but we're probably 18 months away from really having to start making difficult decisions about players. It's going to be easier to make those decisions with more young talent on the roster. Which leads to trade opportunities and comp picks. Aka more bites at the apple. 

We tried the "all-in" move last time we were on the door step. This time, we have a lot of youth and a lot of opportunity to continue adding young talent. So let's see how that goes, IMO. 

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3 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Very true. Konz pick was very logical pick, actually, as was trading up for Sam baker in 2008. We just drafted the wrong guys (Ben jones instead of Konz, Duane Brown instead of baker)

But those trades can also cause you to seriously reach for guys like Holmes..... 

Keleche Osemele was there for the taking and we actually scouted him - he was a RTackle at the time but could have played guard.   I don't hindsight/2nd guess Falcons much on guys that end up being great that just, for whatever reason, were not on their radar screen - however guys that we kick the tires hard on - like Clay Matthews and like Keleche Osemele - but then we select worse players like Peria Jerry and Peter Konz - those are the ones that stick in my craw.......and yes, I know Peria's injury derailed his career but he had injury history coming in and he was 25 years old as well.   I still believe a more determined player could have come back from his injury - think he was somewhat lazy - cannot prove it, just my opinion from the cheap seats.

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24 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I don't even think about it like that, although I think its a good approach. 

The way I see it is that good talent evaluators and developers can get surplus return from picks across the draft. So given the indications that our FO/Coaching Staff is in a good place with talent development and identification, why wouldnt we want to simply pick more players? Given that we know that the draft itself is a high-variance exercise, why wouldnt we want more player?

And i mean, not for nothing but we're probably 18 months away from really having to start making difficult decisions about players. It's going to be easier to make those decisions with more young talent on the roster. Which leads to trade opportunities and comp picks. Aka more bites at the apple. 

We tried the "all-in" move last time we were on the door step. This time, we have a lot of youth and a lot of opportunity to continue adding young talent. So let's see how that goes, IMO. 

That's 100% where I'm at too. You just said it better and more elegantly than I did. :rolleyes:

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Posted (edited)

5 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I don't even think about it like that, although I think its a good approach. 

The way I see it is that good talent evaluators and developers can get surplus return from picks across the draft. So given the indications that our FO/Coaching Staff is in a good place with talent development and identification, why wouldnt we want to simply pick more players? Given that we know that the draft itself is a high-variance exercise, why wouldnt we want more player?

And i mean, not for nothing but we're probably 18 months away from really having to start making difficult decisions about players. It's going to be easier to make those decisions with more young talent on the roster. Which leads to trade opportunities and comp picks. Aka more bites at the apple. 

We tried the "all-in" move last time we were on the door step. This time, we have a lot of youth and a lot of opportunity to continue adding young talent. So let's see how that goes, IMO. 

I agree 100%.  Well said.  We don't need to aim for bulls everytime, just keep hittin' on them 20's and watch as you get lucky and land a bulls on one!

Edited by athell

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3 hours ago, vafalconfan said:

If for some strange reason Barnett slides I could see TD moving up for him. He's a heck of a player and fills a huge need.

If we move up, I hope it's for Barnett...

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This is another bit of propaganda that's going to be put out there more and more this last week before the draft that we are interested in moving up for one of the PASS RUSHERS that might be available.  This mantra continues to be used to throw off the scent from Lamp.

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3 minutes ago, capologist said:

If we move up, I hope it's for Barnett...

And that's tooooootally fine. If we identify a piece that really fits perfectly with our need at DE, by all means, make the move. I feel the same way about Solomon Thomas. He'll almost certainly be gone but what if he isnt? Myles Jack was absolutely going to be gone lost year.....he was there on Day 2. Shaq Lawson wasnt going to make it to us...until he did. 

I'm all for taking advantage of undervalued prospects. But when we start getting into that second tier of prospects, the idea of trading up gets a little dicey to me. Although I admit, it would signal that the FO/CS were sold on the player enough to go get him, and that would inspire confidence. 

The whole draft thing is goofy, ya know? Last year, very few were talking about Neal at 17. Many of us wanted Jack but felt he wouldnt get there. Then he did, we took a guy most thought was a 2nd rounder, and a lot of us flipped out. Fast forward a year and he's a cornerstone of the team and already a highly regarded safety. 

Draft is crazy like that. 

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9 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Keleche Osemele was there for the taking and we actually scouted him - he was a RTackle at the time but could have played guard.   I don't hindsight/2nd guess Falcons much on guys that end up being great that just, for whatever reason, were not on their radar screen - however guys that we kick the tires hard on - like Clay Matthews and like Keleche Osemele - but then we select worse players like Peria Jerry and Peter Konz - those are the ones that stick in my craw.......and yes, I know Peria's injury derailed his career but he had injury history coming in and he was 25 years old as well.   I still believe a more determined player could have come back from his injury - think he was somewhat lazy - cannot prove it, just my opinion from the cheap seats.

Man, I forgot all about Osemele, I would go back and edit my post but you already nailed me on that!!!

i think we would have grabbed him there too. But if you recall, Konz was projected to go in Rd 1 but fell to us (now we know why) so they took him instead . Yuk

Man, I wanted matthews in that 2009 draft...almost as much as I want tim Williams :ninja:this year 

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2 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Man, I forgot all about Osemele, I would go back and edit my post but you already nailed me on that!!!

i think we would have grabbed him there too. But if you recall, Konz was projected to go in Rd 1 but fell to us (now we know why) so they took him instead . Yuk

Man, I wanted matthews in that 2009 draft...almost as much as I want tim Williams :ninja:this year 

yeah I know everyone thought that Konz was late 1st rounder - but I don't buy it.  At the time, Falcons had ZERO pedigree at finding offensive linemen.  That was just a bad job by the personnel dept - 32 other teams passed on Konz at least once and many twice.

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13 minutes ago, Maltese Falcon said:

This is another bit of propaganda that's going to be put out there more and more this last week before the draft that we are interested in moving up for one of the PASS RUSHERS that might be available.  This mantra continues to be used to throw off the scent from Lamp.

Could be.

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21 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Very true. Konz pick was very logical pick, actually, as was trading up for Sam baker in 2008. We just drafted the wrong guys (Ben jones instead of Konz, Duane Brown instead of baker)

But those trades can also cause you to seriously reach for guys like Holmes..... 

The ironic thing is both Konz and Holmes are tailored made for the system that we run now....had  they not gotten hurt in 15 they would imo atleast be depth

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

yeah I know everyone thought that Konz was late 1st rounder - but I don't buy it.  At the time, Falcons had ZERO pedigree at finding offensive linemen.  That was just a bad job by the personnel dept - 32 other teams passed on Konz at least once and many twice.

The last sentence is terrible logic.

Every team passed on Osemele atleast once ....many twice

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