2017 Special Elections...

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

Thought we could use a thread about the special elections that'll be happening in the next weeks and months.  First up, the Kansas 4th District.  Live results are here:

http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html

The Democratic candidate is winning, but it's only 1% of the precincts reporting so it doesn't mean anything this early.

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

I think Estes is going to win, but I think it will be a single digit win.

 

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

Also, the thing to watch about the KS district are the counties.  Trump won every county in that district last year.  The closest county was Sedgwick, which Trump won 56-37%.  That's also the largest county in the district.  If it starts tilting Democratic, it could be a close outcome.  If it goes red, I doubt it'll be close.

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

2 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I think Estes is going to win, but I think it will be a single digit win.

 

Do you have a better link to live results?  The SOS website isn't showing anything from Butler County (edited).

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

I think these are early votes still. SoS site still seems the best for latest results.

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

17 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I think these are early votes still. SoS site still seems the best for latest results.

Looks like more precincts are trickling in from other counties.  Waiting to see more results from Sedgwick, myself.  I agree with you that Estes is likely to win.  I just hope Dems can make it a squeaker.  

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

 

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

2 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

All of the counties reporting huge Estes margins are tiny.  Looks like Sedgwick is going to be what makes this interesting, if it ends up being interesting.

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

Just less than half of the precincts that are not reporting are from Sedgwick County.

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

3 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Just less than half of the precincts that are not reporting are from Sedgwick County.

 

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

4 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

 

I do not agree with this take. I think it was smart not to get involved and let the grassroots do its thing. DCCC/DNC getting involved could have been a negative, plus I think the special elections are good tests for the midterm election. 

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

1 minute ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

I do not agree with this take. I think it was smart not to get involved and let the grassroots do its thing. DCCC/DNC getting involved could have been a negative, plus I think the special elections are good tests for the midterm election. 

That's a great point.  People don't realize that in these types of areas, the national party getting involved can cause a backlash. It would be like running ads featuring Nancy Pelosi in Alabama.  It won't get the reaction they think.

[atl falcon 89 11,496]

22 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

I can only conclude WFW hacked Trouts account. Awaiting to see if Trout starts referring to himself in 3rd person and telling stories about how he once met Edward James Olmos at a truck stop in Reno and gave him life advice that became the foundation of everything he knows today.

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

1 minute ago, atl falcon 89 said:

I can only conclude WFW hacked Trouts account. Awaiting to see if Trout starts referring to himself in 3rd person and telling stories about how he once met James Edward Olmos at a truck stop in Reno and gave him life advice that became the foundation of everything he knows.

Oh yeah, like you blend.  Troutsky is just saying, jack.

[atl falcon 89 11,496]

No Trout I WILL NOT get in your hot tub.  Please quit PMing me

[atl falcon 89 11,496]

Has 538 posted anything on our April 18th election yet?

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

Thompson was a very good candidate. Dems need to be heavily investing in recruiting now. Probably a lot more Ossofs/Thompson that have not gotten the push to run. 

[atl falcon 89 11,496]

I still think the penchant for dems to coalesce in cities just drives the gross number of seats realisticly available to them to much smaller numbers than their GOP counterparts. (And you end up with a bunch of unknown names) Got to strike while the Trump iron is hot.

[Leon Troutsky 9,164]

Looks like an 8% win after Sedgwick was recounted or whatever da fuq happened there.  Still much closer than it should have been.

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

 

[Billy Ocean 14,533]

 

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

 

[GEORGIAfan 8,267]

 

[atl falcon 89 11,496]

3 hours ago, GEORGIAfan said:

 

El Kabong for congress!