Falconsfan567

Matt Ryan Sucks So Bad....

59 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

Tell you what they lived and died by there decisions all year.

This time it burnt them and we came up short.

We can rehash this as much as we like the result is still the same.

We just have to hope as fans that DQ has learnt from that mishap and it never happens again.

Opportunity missed I think we can all move on now.

Yup. They played aggressive all year, and chose to do the same. It is what it is

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On 3/17/2017 at 9:56 PM, Falconsfan567 said:

I used to think the same thing but that's not true. Here's TD pass totals for those 3 guys through the first 9 years of their career from inside the opponents 10 yard line.

  • Matt Ryan - 123
  • Peyton Manning - 105
  • Drew Brees - 74

Volume stats don't tell the story you think.  If Matt Ryan has been inside the 10 more times than Manning and Brees, they still might be choosing to throw more often than he does.

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1 hour ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

Volume stats don't tell the story you think.  If Matt Ryan has been inside the 10 more times than Manning and Brees, they still might be choosing to throw more often than he does.

Someone asked a question. I answered it the only way I could. With actual numbers.

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3 hours ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

Volume stats don't tell the story you think.  If Matt Ryan has been inside the 10 more times than Manning and Brees, they still might be choosing to throw more often than he does.

Meh, it's not volume. 

Brees had the same amount of  red zone trips as Ryan last year, when Ryan ran one of the most prolific offenses ever.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game?date=2017-02-06

Every year but one, since Ryan came into the league, Brees has had more red zone opportunities.

That list goes back to 2003-from 2003-2007, Indy was top 1-3 in red zone trips, there's just no way those numbers can be explained by Ryan having more red zone trips than the other two.

 

 

Here's Brees Mannings and  Ryans career totals for TDs 9 yards and under, their total TDs and their % of TD passes within 10 yards.

 

P. Manning 215/539 39.8%

Brees 195/466 41.8%

Ryan 117/240 48.7%,

 

So with both Brees and Manning having more years of experience, more elite years, they still throw for a lesser percentage of TD passes ten yards and in..

Numbers were slightly different for Ryan because PFR breaks down the numbers under 3, 4-9 and 10-19, other guy obviously went through the totals and hand counted the 10 yard passes to get to 123. I didn't feel like doing that, I used the numbers from PFR.

 

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54 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Meh, it's not volume. 

Brees had the same amount of  red zone trips as Ryan last year, when Ryan ran one of the most prolific offenses ever.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game?date=2017-02-06

Every year but one, since Ryan came into the league, Brees has had more red zone opportunities.

That list goes back to 2003-from 2003-2007, Indy was top 1-3 in red zone trips, there's just no way those numbers can be explained by Ryan having more red zone trips than the other two.

 

 

Here's Brees Mannings and  Ryans career totals for TDs 9 yards and under, their total TDs and their % of TD passes within 10 yards.

 

P. Manning 215/539 39.8%

Brees 195/466 41.8%

Ryan 117/240 48.7%,

 

So with both Brees and Manning having more years of experience, more elite years, they still throw for a lesser percentage of TD passes ten yards and in..

Numbers were slightly different for Ryan because PFR breaks down the numbers under 3, 4-9 and 10-19, other guy obviously went through the totals and hand counted the 10 yard passes to get to 123. I didn't feel like doing that, I used the numbers from PFR.

 

I got the numbers from each player's PFR splits page which had a column of stats for opponents 1-10. That is where the numbers came from. I was having trouble figuring out how to get the numbers from play index so I got them the only way I knew how.

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16 hours ago, falconidae said:

Meh, it's not volume. 

Brees had the same amount of  red zone trips as Ryan last year, when Ryan ran one of the most prolific offenses ever.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game?date=2017-02-06

Every year but one, since Ryan came into the league, Brees has had more red zone opportunities.

That list goes back to 2003-from 2003-2007, Indy was top 1-3 in red zone trips, there's just no way those numbers can be explained by Ryan having more red zone trips than the other two.

 

 

Here's Brees Mannings and  Ryans career totals for TDs 9 yards and under, their total TDs and their % of TD passes within 10 yards.

 

P. Manning 215/539 39.8%

Brees 195/466 41.8%

Ryan 117/240 48.7%,

 

So with both Brees and Manning having more years of experience, more elite years, they still throw for a lesser percentage of TD passes ten yards and in..

Numbers were slightly different for Ryan because PFR breaks down the numbers under 3, 4-9 and 10-19, other guy obviously went through the totals and hand counted the 10 yard passes to get to 123. I didn't feel like doing that, I used the numbers from PFR.

 

Not being argumentative, just pointing out that these stats still don't tell the story.  There are multiple downs on each redzone trip, and this only captures those passes which succeeded.  You would still need a breakdown of all plays to determine whether one player throws more or less than another.  It's the difference between the players of career variations of scoring on first, second, third, or fourth down, as well as the difference between the players of play calling on any unsuccessful downs.

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11 minutes ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

Not being argumentative, just pointing out that these stats still don't tell the story.  There are multiple downs on each redzone trip, and this only captures those passes which succeeded.  You would still need a breakdown of all plays to determine whether one player throws more or less than another.  It's the difference between the players of career variations of scoring on first, second, third, or fourth down, as well as the difference between the players of play calling on any unsuccessful downs.

?? First part of the post shows that Brees and Manning had more red zone trips overall than Ryan has.

Considering how many passes that Brees and Peyton throw/threw, think it's really unlikely that Ryan throws more passes than them in the red zone.

OK, these are stats from 10 yards in,because that's what the previous stats were:

Brees 577 attempts in  232 games, that's  2.48 attempts a game career

Peyton 629 attempts in  265 games, that's  2.37 attempts a game career

Ryan  331 attempts in  142 games, that's 2.33  attempts a game career

TDs from 10 yards is as a % of total TDs:

Ryan 123/240 51%
Brees 205/465 44%
Peyton 240 /539 44%

So Ryan throws a TD 37.2% of the time in that situation

Brees throws a TD 35.5% of the time

Peyton threw a TD 38.2%

 

Ryan is more effective in the short red zone than Brees, in fewer attempts, and almost equal to Peyton. 

That's two HOF super bowl winning QBs that Ryan is equal to or better than.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, falconidae said:

?? First part of the post shows that Brees and Manning had more red zone trips overall than Ryan has.

Considering how many passes that Brees and Peyton throw/threw, think it's really unlikely that Ryan throws more passes than them in the red zone.

OK, these are stats from 10 yards in,because that's what the previous stats were:

Brees 577 attempts in  232 games, that's  2.48 attempts a game career

Peyton 629 attempts in  265 games, that's  2.37 attempts a game career

Ryan  331 attempts in  142 games, that's 2.33  attempts a game career

TDs from 10 yards is as a % of total TDs:

Ryan 123/240 51%
Brees 205/465 44%
Peyton 240 /539 44%

So Ryan throws a TD 37.2% of the time in that situation

Brees throws a TD 35.5% of the time

Peyton threw a TD 38.2%

 

Ryan is more effective in the short red zone than Brees, in fewer attempts, and almost equal to Peyton. 

That's two HOF super bowl winning QBs that Ryan is equal to or better than.

 

 

 

Perfect, now we have it!

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On 3/17/2017 at 11:41 PM, takeitdown said:

 

I would have bet money it was the other way.  Interesting.

Where'd you get these stats by the way?

I think Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Snelling help alot. We kinda forget about how money they were in the red zone when we threw them the ball.

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