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Patriots defense had literally the EASIEST schedule of offenses


Ergo Proxy
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

It may be no secret among posters paying attention; and the intent isn't to disrespect Belichick's history of game planning and building a reliable defense to suit his game plans, but quite frankly to simply regurgitate the "Defense Wins Championships" mantra coupled with "No.1 D beats No.1 O" by default it begs to be point out Atlanta is the proven offense inside the numbers this season. Also, they set records while proving themselves. This isn't just a number 1 offense. This is a historically great offense. They have faced the 2nd toughest schedule of defenses while Patriots offense has respectably performed against the 10th toughest defensive schedule. So, this could very well be a shootout in fact. Advantage Atlanta.

However, how have the two defenses performed?

Common opponents show Atlanta; despite it's obvious growing pains during the season on defense, has performed similarly to the Patriots defense in those games.

So, inside the numbers says their run defense is stout before and after DVOA is considered. Their run D is considerably their biggest strength as a defense. However, their pass defense is actually ranked below that of the Falcons (19th and 23rd respectively) over the 2016 regular season.

The kicker?

They are dead last at 32nd in the difficulty schedule of offenses faced for their defense. Of course, this probably isn't surprising considering the lack of stud QBs they faced all season. They stop the run, make a bad QB throw, win with a reliably great offense ( though not historically great this season).

They literally played THE easiest schedule as a defense though. If that isn't a complete negation to the "Defense Wins Championships" mantra you could almost say "It Will Cost Us vs this ATL offense".

I can't wait for the Falcons to do their thing this Sunday. This is what they've proven to do while facing a stiffer schedule than the Pats; in particular on defense and it's not even close. The Falcons are literally 1 spot away from having faced THE toughest defensive schedule and the Patriots D ranks dead last in strength of offenses faced using DVOA.

In particular, the Pats pass D grades out lower than the Falcons 2016 regular season using this metric. Now that is just sad, we all know how Atlanta was burned in numerous shootouts early in the season and had it's share of a learning curve as a young unit against formidable passing offenses; though rarely tested on the ground against complete offenses. Also, much of Atlanta's pass D stats lately have come from garbage time points as they didn't try to run up scores while ahead most of the season.

To me, it's a no-brainer: The Falcons want a shootout if they can't stop the Patriots offense and the Patriots want to play ball-control / keep away to minimize the Falcons damage.

The only team that did this to Atlanta during the season was Philly; a MUCH better defense at being equipped to stop the Falcons passing game, put up 200 yards rushing, and was THE worst game of the season for Atlanta just before the bye where the team self-scouted and has not looked back since then in terms of improving defensively and offensively. Also, when Atlanta did have the ball that game it was terrible.

How can anyone flat out expect Atlanta to duplicate their worst showing of the year to fit NE's win condition when they are peaking on both sides of the ball well past their lowest point? They have faced stiffer competition as an offense in terms of matchups and grown offensively as well for being tested.

I'm not waiting all worried into Sunday as to whether or not Atlanta will be exposed like the media is spewing. I'm eagerly anticipating the Falcons exposing this Patriots defense with their obvious matchup weakness (with all due respect to Belichick and their history that goes without saying but that defensive personnel isn't built to defend the Falcons). I'm more eager to see the Falcons defense play up to it's recent showings and if we slow down Brady and their offense at all it's Atlanta's game to Win.

#RiseUp #DVOA

 

*Of course the caveat to this is Belichick relying on a gameplan to win since he can't rely on straight up man to man ala Pats vs Rams 2001, etc. This game is mostly about Atlanta continuing to do what they've done and their own gameplan is being ignored (outside of a bag incident meme). I see no reason this season to believe the Pats can gameplan alone to win this game. They must rely on Atlanta beating itself in hopes of slow down Falcons OR a miraculous DL showing at getting QB pressure quickly. Same challenge to Falcons D vs Brady's quick release, but I like our odds in a shootout.

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3 hours ago, droopy1592 said:

where are these clown patriots fans. What do they have to say about this ? 

 

Our pass defense is ranked better and our offense is ranked better.

now what ? 

Illogical pats fans can't say ****. 

I have six of them blocked, so I am not the one to ask. I have never seen such football-ignorant trolls in my born days.

Edited by Tim Mazetti
Update now seven.
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Just now, Tim Mazetti said:

I have six of them blocked, so I am not the one to ask. I have never seen such football-ignorant trolls in my born days.

Well, when you believe in "The Force" and happen to be fans of real world Darth Vader & The Sith Lord you don't need to believe anything but ignorant troll 'swagger'. LOL

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1 minute ago, BIRDLAND 2.0 said:

Per PFF article on the ranking of Defensive front 7s post 2016 season: Patriots were given a 24/32 team passing grade. Their LB corps doesn't have speed or cover skills like the secondary, which is ranked 3/32. Advantage Bird HBs/TE/slot Wides!

I just don't see how NE has a rats-@#s chance in heII.

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I bet if we dig deeper we will find out Goodell gave the Pats an easy schedule this year.

Snowden found out that Goodell worked a deal with Brady if he would drop the lawsuit he would set them up for an easy path to the Super Bowl. It was in the movie they took it out of the finished copy. The uncut preview it was visible I saw it.

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The Atlanta defense is bigtime underrated. The garbage TDs/yds they give up and the fact that they are young and improved, is not noticed by anyone other than you and I. The people that actually follow this team....they(we) are the one's that know. And we all see whats coming. :D

The Atlanta D is underrated...there speed especially!  NE D is overrated due to the very weak strength of there schedule...which is talked about and proven in this thread's orig post.   

30-21 Falcons win....and those NE people can thank Belichick for finding a way to keep it that close.

Edited by jm_falcons
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As we all know any team can have a bad day, but if our guys can stay focused and healthy we'll dominate!  This game is only going to be close until our guys understand they are in control.  Open up that can of Super Bowl kick Axx!!

RISE UP!!!  

GO FALCONS!!!

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