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Falcons VS Patriots.. By The Numbers..


EightyEight
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Wanted to take a look at the stats here, and what's really going on with this Patriots defense that led the league in points per game.. (15.6 PPG)

 

The Patriots DID in fact only allow an average of 15.6 points per game, however, in their entire season they played exactly 3 teams that finished in the top half of the NFL in scoring. THREE. The Cardinals, Bills, and Steelers. (Granted they did play the Bills twice) So, in those four games against decent scoring offenses, how did they perform? (For this, the postseason will be ignored)

 

Week one: Patriots VS Cardinals: Score: Patriots 23-Cardinals 21

Cardinals Season Average: 26 points Per Game. 

Point differential from average: 5 points.

Week Four: Patriots VS Bills: Score:  Patriots 0-Bills 16. 
 

Bills Season Average: 24 points per game

Point differential from average: 8 points.

 

Week 7: Patriots VS Steelers: Score: Patriots 27-Steelers 16

Steelers Season Average: 24.2 points Per Game. 

Point Differential: 8 points. 

Week 8: Patriots VS Bills: Score: Patriots 41-Bills 25

Bills Season Average: 24 Points Per Game

Point Differential: -1 Point.

 

The average of all of this? When playing a top offense, the Patriots on average decreased their opponents' offense by 5 points. Against top NFL offenses, they allowed an average of 19.5 (20) points per game, a four point increase from their regular season average. With all of this information in mind, you could hypothetically expect the Falcons points to decrease from their average of 34, to 29. 

 

On the other hand..How did the Falcons offense perform against top 16 defenses?

 

This season the Atlanta Falcons averaged an INCREDIBLE 34 points per game on offense, and did so against 5 top 16 defenses, Seattle, Denver, KC,Philly, and Arizona. How did they fare?

Week 5: Falcons VS Broncos: Score: Falcons 23- Broncos 16

Denver Average Points allowed per game: 19 Points per game

Point differential: +4 points. 

Week 6: Falcons VS Seahawks: Score: Falcons 24-Seahawks 26.

Seattle Average Points allowed per game: 19 Points per game

Point differential:+ 5 points.

Week 10: Falcons VS Eagles: Score: Falcons 15- Eagles 24

Philadelphia Average Points allowed per game: 21.

Point Differential: -6

Week 12: Falcons VS Cardinals: Score: Falcons 38- Cardinals 19

Arizona Average Points allowed per game: 23

Point Differential 15.

Week 13: Falcons VS Chiefs: Score: Falcons 28- Chiefs 29.

Kansas City Average Points allowed per game: 19

Point differential: 10

 

The average of all this? When playing TOP defenses, the Falcons INCREASED their opponents' average points per game by..

5.6 points.

When playing TOP NFL Defenses, they averaged 26 points per game, a 9 point decrease from their overall average. 

 

Where does that leave us? The Patriots averaged (rounded) 16 points per game, increase that by (rounded) 6 points and it gives you 22. So, by those calculations, you could expect the Falcons to score 22 points. Different from the 26 mentioned earlier. 

We average those together?

24 points.

 

Take it for what you will, The Falcons haven't scored less than 30 points since week 13, including a 36 point drubbing of the #2 ranked Seattle defense. Point being, Patriots defense very well could slow down the Falcons offense, but they should still get at least 3 touchdowns. 

Let me know if you guys liked this and I'll created an inverted article analyzing Patriots Offense vs top defenses, and Falcons Defense vs Top Offenses.

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Pats defense just held a very good Steelers offense to 17. I would argue both our teams actually held the opposing very good offenses to single digits, but it's hard to discount them.

And to any who want to bring up Bell's injury, or how much better Rodgers is, the Packers had plenty of injuries too. I'll admit Rodgers is playing on another level compared to Big Ben though.

This is going to be suuuuuch a good game.

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Just now, chifalc said:

Why not do that against ALL offenses and defenses rather than just top ones?

Because I wanted to highlight how they performed against top offenses and defenses, since that's what each will be going up against. It doesn't really mean much to the Patriots Defense if the Falcons scored on a crappy D, and it doesn't really pertain to the Falcons offense if the Pats held a crappy offense to no points. Get what I'm saying?:)

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4 minutes ago, Falcan Moore said:

Pats defense just held a very good Steelers offense to 17. I would argue both our teams actually held the opposing very good offenses to single digits, but it's hard to discount them.

And to any who want to bring up Bell's injury, or how much better Rodgers is, the Packers had plenty of injuries too. I'll admit Rodgers is playing on another level compared to Big Ben though.

This is going to be suuuuuch a good game.

So good they weren't top 10. 

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4 minutes ago, EightyEight said:

Because I wanted to highlight how they performed against top offenses and defenses, since that's what each will be going up against. It doesn't really mean much to the Patriots Defense if the Falcons scored on a crappy D, and it doesn't really pertain to the Falcons offense if the Pats held a crappy offense to no points. Get what I'm saying?:)

It's still an NFL defense, and with the number of 'top' games it's too small a sample size to mean much.

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30 minutes ago, Falcan Moore said:

They spent a ton of time without Leveon Bell and Roethlisberger. Yeah, they weren't on the level of GB's, but come on. The Patriots defense looked good.

They haven't looked good in any game I've watched them play in other than Chiefs reg season  and eagles, anyone they scored against had a soft defense. 

Edited by droopy1592
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10 minutes ago, droopy1592 said:

So good they weren't top 10. 

And they lost Bell in the 2nd quarter. He's their entire offense.

People give a ton of credit to Todd Haley, but am I the only one who thinks his playcalling is vanilla? Runs it twice in a row in the redzone. Sees it's man-to-man coverage and instead of trying to exploit it with rub routes or bunch formation, he runs a simply out route and expects it to be enough. They are very predictable on offense and their receivers drop crucial passes (Sammy Coates dropped a perfectly thrown 50 yard bomb to start the game off).

Pittsburgh ain't that good offensively. I'd take Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, healthy San Diego and Oakland before I take Pittsburgh. And even then, I still might take Washington before them.

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I still think we can drop 30 on them.  Hopefully, this is a team we can have better success on with the running game and limit Brady's possessions.  Our defense has been playing well and can continue to do so.  It should be a very good matchup though.  Just hope we can continue our play on both sides of the ball like we've done in this post season and if we do that, I think we come out on top!  

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