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Skeptical of Atlanta's Defensive "Improvement"? You Should Be.


Dirtybird56
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Here's the excerpt y'all care about: 

 

3) Atlanta's defense has improved statistically over the past five outings, allowing an average of just 19.0 points after hemorrhaging 27.6 points per game early in the season. Coach Dan Quinn's explanation, via The MMQB: "We get better every week because we've got young guys still learning our defense." That sounds plausible, right? The Falcons are certainly a faster, harder-hitting defense after hitting the jackpot with their last three draft classes. 

Here's the problem with Quinn's pie-in-the-sky hypothesis: There's too much statistical noise in his defense's sudden stinginess. That five-game sample includes overwhelmed Rams quarterback Jared Goff, San Francisco's talent-starved offense, Cam Newton in the midst of one of the most scattershot stretches of the 21st century and a Seattle attack that turns inept behind a swinging-gate offensive line on the road. When Quinn's troops face Aaron Rodgers, we're going to see the third-worst red-zone defense among all teams since 2000.

 

Full article: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776169/article/jared-cooks-rise-in-green-bay-eric-fishers-obvious-hold-more?campaign=Twitter_atn

 

Let them doubt, I say. 

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Also, I already did a measure accounting for things by way of opponent offensive prowess. I can't find the post since i posted it on the Seahawks MB before we obliterated them (I might've posted it here too?) but essentially, after the bye week, we played offenses averaging #15 overall in the NFL in ppg, and limited them significantly below their average output. The Seahawks were actually playing offenses ranking an average of #17 overall and giving up around 2 more points per game.

Discredit our defense all you want. We're still winning Sunday, that's what matters to me.

EDIT: Found it.

Quote

Falcons are allowing 17.83 points on defense over the last 6 games, ie since the bye week, against the #2, #6, #13, #15, #27, and #32 scoring offenses. That rounds out to about the #15 to #16 offense, so a just barely above average range of offenses, and good for showing their marked improvement.

Seahawks are allowing 19.83 points on defense over the last 6 games, against the #4, #6, #15, #18, #27, and #32 scoring offenses. That rounds out to about the #17 offense, so just barely below average range of offenses.

Hmm. Funny.

Especially since every single game you played was against a common opponent of ours...and the Falcons went 6-0 in those games, considering where they were played, and the Seahawks went 3-3.

Even more interesting is that the Falcons averaged 36.67 points over their last 6 games, with their lowest two output totals being 28 and 33, against the Chiefs and Panthers defenses.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks averaged 22.5 points over their last 6 games, with their lowest two output totals being 5 and 10, against the Packers and Buccaneers defenses.

Odd that we would be confident outscoring our opponents 36.67 to 17.83 the last 6 games, while you outscored yours 22.5 to 19.83. Utterly baffling.

Pretty funny that we beat them 36-20 when we averaged outscoring opponents (not allotting for defensive/ST scores) ~37 to ~18.

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Statistical noise huh? 

What about what you can see on film like the run fits, better line play, the improvements in the way receivers are passed off in zone vs. the way they were wide open in the first quarter of the season? And go on and note the 49ers and Rams while leaving out what the defense did to Arizona which finished as a top 10 offense and averaged what over 30 points a game after playing Atlanta, not to mention leaving out what they did against New Orleans' stacked receiving Corp and number one offense in the finale.

Guess none of that counts because it wrecks the narrative.

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7 minutes ago, Falcan Moore said:

Also, I already did a measure accounting for things by way of opponent offensive prowess. I can't find the post since i posted it on the Seahawks MB before we obliterated them (I might've posted it here too?) but essentially, after the bye week, we played offenses averaging #15 overall in the NFL in ppg, and limited them significantly below their average output. The Seahawks were actually playing offenses ranking an average of #17 overall and giving up around 2 more points per game.

Discredit our defense all you want. We're still winning Sunday, that's what matters to me.

EDIT: Found it.

What are these numbers like for the Packers?

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13 minutes ago, likeriver said:

These stats also don't take into account of all the prevent D scores we gave up in numerous games.

See, (Panthers, Broncos, Saints (2x), Bucs, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers)

Exactly.

Check the scores of the games vs the saints,Panthers, and bucs going into 4th quarter

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Saying that the D has improved is not pie in the sky, don't recall any quote from Quinn calling them the reincarnation of the 85 Bears.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Falcon D has another Saints/Seahawks type of game. They shut him down 2nd half of the last game, Giants had him shut down until they lost their best secondary player, Rodgers can overcome lack of a run game, don't think even he can overcome lack of a run game AND no healthy WRs.

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I'll just go ahead and do the last 6, plus all playoff games, to make the Packers look as good as possible.

Though keep in mind - this is exempting the Packers atrocious two games before, where they allowed 42 and 47 points to the Redskins and Titans.

(lmao)

The Packers, over their run-the-table stretch, are averaging 19.5 points per game allowed vs the #21 average offense.

(side note: wow. I didn't realize they'd faced that kind of terrible offense so much over the run the table stretch. 5 of the 8 offenses were 20th or worse, and the others were #18, #16, and #5.)

Us, over the same stretch, are averaging 18.1 points per game allowed vs the #16 average offense.

IE: We're averaging 1.4 points less given up to an average scoring offense a whole 5 spots better than they've been facing.

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20 minutes ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Statistical noise huh? 

What about what you can see on film like the run fits, better line play, the improvements in the way receivers are passed off in zone vs. the way they were wide open in the first quarter of the season? And go on and note the 49ers and Rams while leaving out what the defense did to Arizona which finished as a top 10 offense and averaged what over 30 points a game after playing Atlanta, not to mention leaving out what they did against New Orleans' stacked receiving Corp and number one offense in the finale.

Guess none of that counts because it wrecks the narrative.

Gotta make the Falcons look weak. You know how it goes

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