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Vegas Now Has 5 Points of Faith in the Falcons, How About You?


NobisFan60
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4.5 is what Vegas thinks it is... that's why it was the opening line... 

 

Everything after  that they are trying to get more people to bet against the Falcons by raising the spread... if they lower it, that means more people are betting on Packers...

Edited by Leggggggo
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5 minutes ago, Leggggggo said:

4.5 is what Vegas thinks it is... that's why it was the opening line... 

 

Everything after  that they are trying to get more people to bet against the Falcons by raising the spread... if they lower it, that means more people are betting on Packers...

It is a little more complex than that. Its about dollars, not people. It is very possible that more people are betting on the Packers, but the "smart money" is siding with the Falcons and pushing the line up. 

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17 minutes ago, falcndave said:

It is a little more complex than that. Its about dollars, not people. It is very possible that more people are betting on the Packers, but the "smart money" is siding with the Falcons and pushing the line up. 

Geeze, Dave I am perplexed. I thought the opposite. When the $ come in on the underdog I thought the spread increases.

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6 minutes ago, Jesus said:

I'd like to think the Falcons are going to win but in the back of my mind is the itch. The itch of 2012 (I know a different team/time, etc) is telling me that the team could blow this. It's not what I want, but I feel it and I don't like it.

Well I have the itch too being a Falcons' fan from the beginning. I had it for Seattle. Having said that, I think we beat them as bad as we beat Seattle. If we win the SB maybe the 'itch' will finally be knocked out. 

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1 minute ago, fuego said:

Well I have the itch too being a Falcons' fan from the beginning. I had it for Seattle. Having said that, I think we beat them as bad as we beat Seattle. If we win the SB maybe the 'itch' will finally be knocked out. 

Honestly I am more in the air on this game than the potential SB match ups. Then again that might be because this game is real and the SB is still a dream away.

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I think AA Rodgers IS the team, especially without Jordy Nelson. We are the full package, if we come out looking like we did against Seattle, which personally I was more worried about than this game, we will kick the crap out of them. If we go 3 and out twice in the first half, and Rodgers has 12 on the board I worry

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It's a complicated business and it is about the money being bet. Even the opening line is a calculation made my people who make a very good living calculating where they need to be to get the money bet pretty much even on both sides. When the money is even on both sides, then the losers fund the winners and Vegas lives off the 10% juice. They are quite good at it as Vegas is the one with the billion with a B dollar casino palaces where they comp your food and lodging as long as you are betting. After the opening, the line will then move based on where the betting money is going.

The opening being 4.5 in our favor simple means we were favored by the early betters.

 

Edited by TheUsualStuff
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27 minutes ago, Jesus said:

I'd like to think the Falcons are going to win but in the back of my mind is the itch. The itch of 2012 (I know a different team/time, etc) is telling me that the team could blow this. It's not what I want, but I feel it and I don't like it.

Falcons'  will be SB winners.

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12 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Me too. But I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but bet a co-worker $10 on the game.

Here is a little insight form one of today's ESPN Insider Articles. I have done pretty well in DFS this season. Noticing "reverse" betting lines is part of the art. Scroll to the bottom to get the quick take on the Falcons this weekend. 

LINK

Why Atlanta, New England are best bets on Sunday


By David Solar
ESPN Chalk

 

There are many worn-out terms that are used so often they seemingly lose all meaning. For sports bettors, "sharp money" is one of these terms and it is frequently used when breaking down line movement. At Sports Insights, we are typically focusing on large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates when discussing sharp money.

To understand why sharp money is important, bettors must understand how sportsbooks operate. Many bettors believe that oddsmakers are looking to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side and thereby mitigating any risk. That is pure fiction. Sportsbooks shade their opening line to capitalize on public perception, and allow their most-respected clients to move the lines.

Although the handle increases significantly during the playoffs, sportsbooks have become progressively more reluctant to shade their opening lines or adjust based on public money in recent years. If sportsbooks believe they have an edge, they are willing to take one-sided action. We saw that play out over this past weekend with oddsmakers refusing to move the spread despite heavy action on New England, Pittsburgh and Green Bay -- all of which covered the closing spread. In fact, the line actually moved against the public in all three games. This led to a major win for public bettors and huge losses for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

For more insight into how sportsbooks shade their lines during the postseason, I reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

"We don't do a ton of shading during the playoffs," Cooley said. "Perhaps a bit during the early rounds when you've got a Miami type of team playing Pittsburgh, but as we go forth there is very little shading. And we won't adjust based on public money."

During the regular season it is fairly common to see incredibly one-sided public betting, but there aren't the same types of splits during the postseason. Dating back to 2003, only one team (SD +1.5 vs. IND back on Jan. 3, 2009) has received less than 25 percent of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. Teams fitting those criteria have been highly profitable during the regular season, going 274-230 ATS (54.4 percent).

"It does get one-sided, but not quite as much as the regular season," confirmed Cooley. "Obviously, a lot depends on the matchup, but even the public realizes that these are quality teams, especially the deeper we get into the playoffs."

Since the splits aren't as dramatic during the playoffs, bettors implementing a contrarian strategy are forced to adjust their sweet spot for fading the public. My research found that teams receiving at least 60 percent of spread bets have gone 22-28 ATS (44 percent), but that's admittedly a small sample size. Instead of focusing on public betting, it has been far more profitable to follow the line movement.

While betting against the public is a profitable strategy, during the playoffs there are far fewer games each week than there are during the regular season. That allows oddsmakers to pay closer attention to each game, which gives them more confidence in their numbers. For that reason, sportsbooks are hesitant to move their line unless it's being hammered by their most well-respected bettors. There are very few games, and they want to maximize profits by following the sharp money.

Using our Bet Labs software, I found that playoff teams have gone 60-46 ATS (56.6 percent) when the opening line at Pinnacle gets worse -- i.e. moving from +4 to +3 or -7 to -7.5. Even though we're grading these plays after the line moves, it's still profitable to follow the line movement. When we rule out games in which public money could conceivably be causing the movement, our record improves significantly.

Conference Championship Betting System

CRITERIA ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
Line gets worse 60-46 (56.6%) +11.61 +11.0%
Team receiving <60% of spread bets, line gets worse 54-33 (62.1%) +18.76 +21.6%

Conference Championship Betting System

CRITERIA ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
* Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
Line gets worse 60-46 (56.6%) +11.61 +11.0%
Team receiving <60% of spread bets, line gets worse 54-33 (62.1%) +18.76 +21.6%

 

Most sportsbooks increase their limits closer to kickoff, so it's difficult to definitively diagnose sharp money this early in the week. That said, early line movement is usually a good indicator of which way the sharps are leaning -- especially if a game moves across a key number. There has already been major line movement in both of Sunday's conference championship matchups, which indicates there could be value for bettors.

 


Conference championship system matches

Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.

chalk_gb.png?w=60&h=60chalk_atl.png?w=60&h=60

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5)

The Falcons opened as 4-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook for Sunday's early game, but public bettors are skeptical about the NFC South champ. According to our public betting trends, Atlanta has received just 31 percent of spread tickets and 35 percent of spread dollars. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Falcons have moved from -4 to -5. This reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money is taking the home chalk.

The Falcons are coming off an impressive 16-point victory against a talented Seahawks team, yet they're receiving less than one-third of spread tickets. That's particularly interesting since Green Bay's defense allowed 269.3 passing yards/game -- the second-worst mark in football. Considering that Matt Ryan ranked second in passing yards and first in QBR, this seems like an excellent buy-low opportunity for bettors.

It's obviously early, but sportsbooks are anticipating sharps to back the Falcons for the second consecutive week. "We do expect to see steady Packers money from the betting public, but it will be interesting to see which side the professional gamblers are on," Cooley said. "They absolutely hammered the Falcons against Seattle so we may see some more of that."

Aaron Rodgers could be without his top receivers as Davante Adams (ankle) is questionable and Jordy Nelson (ribs) is listed as doubtful. During the regular season, that duo combined for 172 receptions for 2,254 yards and 26 touchdowns. That would be a major blow for a one-dimensional offense that has struggled to consistently run the ball effectively. This line should be at least 6, so I'm happy to lay the favorite here.

The pick: Atlanta -5

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