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Daniel Jeremiah Top 50


HEIST
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000775479/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2017-nfl-draft

  1. Myles Garrett - DE, Texas A&M
  2. Malik Hooker - S, Ohio State
  3. Marshon Lattimore - CB, Ohio State
  4. Jamal Adams - S, LSU
  5. Jonathan Allen - DT, Alabama
  6. Leonard Fournette - RB, LSU
  7. Reuben Foster - LB, Alabama
  8. Corey Davis - WR, Western Michigan
  9. Mike Williams - WR, Clemson
  10. Solomon Thomas - DE, Stanford
  11. Dalvin Cook - RB, Florida State
  12. Sidney Jones - CB, Washington
  13. David Njoku - TE, Miami
  14. Ryan Ramczyk - OT, Wisconsin
  15. DeShone Kizer - QB, Notre Dame
  16. Forrest Lamp - G, Western Kentucky
  17. Derek Barnett - DE, Tennessee
  18. O.J. Howard - TE, Alabama
  19. Tre'Davious White - CB, LSU
  20. Teez Tabor - CB, Florida
  21. Quincy Wilson - CB, Florida
  22. Takkarist McKinley - DE, UCLA
  23. Taco Charlton - DE, Michigan
  24. Budda Baker - S, Washington
  25. Christian McCaffrey - RB, Stanford
  26. Alvin Kamara - RB, Tennessee
  27. John Ross - WR, Washington
  28. Garett Bolles - OT, Utah
  29. Gareon Conley - CB, Ohio State
  30. Jarrad Davis - LB, Florida
  31. Mitch Trubisky - QB, North Carolina
  32. Deshaun Watson - QB, Clemson
  33. Jabrill Peppers - S, Michigan
  34. T.J. Watt - LB, Wisconsin
  35. Gerald Everett - TE, South Alabama
  36. Charles Harris - DE, Missouri
  37. Adoree' Jackson - CB, USC
  38. Tim Williams - LB, Alabama
  39. Malik McDowell - DT, Michigan State
  40. Cam Robinson - OT, Alabama
  41. Curtis Samuel - RB, Ohio State
  42. DeMarcus Walker - DE, Florida State
  43. Caleb Brantley - DT, Florida
  44. Cooper Kupp - WR, Eastern Washington
  45. Marlon Humphrey - CB, Alabama
  46. Marcus Williams - S, Utah
  47. Ryan Anderson - OLB, Alabama
  48. Chad Hansen - WR, California
  49. Jourdan Lewis - CB, Michigan
  50. Kevin King - CB, Washington

 

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Gotta say I'd be down with Malik McDowell falling to our pick. I know it's a big board and not a mock, but it's a given that teams will grab quarterbacks. Maybe a QB falls and some team wants to trade up to our pick to get ahead of the Browns.

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1 hour ago, HEIST said:

Don't know who Everett is, but apparently Tim has a really bad weed problem. 

He's a tight end. I like him a lot, had him in both my mocks to date, but no way do I see him being a borderline 1st round pick. 

If it's true, then I think he will fall, especially after what's happened with Randy Gregory.

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1 hour ago, Smiler11 said:

Tim Williams falling to the 2nd. Gerald Everett at 35. 

He's got some wacky rankings here

 

1 hour ago, HEIST said:

Don't know who Everett is, but apparently Tim has a really bad weed problem. 

Honestly, I just think Tim Williams is just plain old overrated. Just saying...

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Just now, Smiler11 said:

Rough as in bad?

yeah, there are a few numbers you can look at before the combine that're helpful and this class is looking bad already.

for 4-3 DEs in general you want a guy younger than 23 and 6'4 or taller. There are very few of those guys in this class...

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Just now, Kayoh said:

yeah, there are a few numbers you can look at before the combine that're helpful and this class is looking bad already.

for 4-3 DEs in general you want a guy younger than 23 and 6'4 or taller. There are very few of those guys in this class...

Your age stats are always going to skewed though, as only the best underclassmen declare. So on average an underclassmen who declares is going to outperform your average senior. 

Maybe for 4-3 DE's, but the prototype LEO is gonna be built more like a 3-4 OLB. What does your pass rushing numbers say on those?

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1 minute ago, Smiler11 said:

Pass rushing efficiency stats says otherwise. 

Maybe, I think Jeremiah has him right about where he needs to be as far as what I've seen from the little bit that I've watched of him. I say "about" because I would still move him down below Malik McDowell, Marcus Williams, Jourdan Lewis, Cam Robinson, and Calib Brantley.  I wouldn't put him ahead of anybody ahead of him on that list. Not one guy. And I'm not even considering rather he's a weed head. 

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6 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

Your age stats are always going to skewed though, as only the best underclassmen declare. So on average an underclassmen who declares is going to outperform your average senior. 

Maybe for 4-3 DE's, but the prototype LEO is gonna be built more like a 3-4 OLB. What does your pass rushing numbers say on those?

the successful LEOs line up significantly better with 4-3 DEs than 3-4 OLBs. The entire point of a LEO is to be a pass rusher and set the edge, which also lines up more with a 4-3 DE's responsibilities than a 3-4 OLB's. The 3-4 OLB requirements fit our Sam LB role much more than LEO, which is also why Vic was so much more successful this year than he was last year. We need a guy who fits the 4-3 DE mold to play LEO opposite Beasley.

And as far as age goes, for 4-3 DEs, out of 50 players who were 23 or older to start their rookie years, the ONLY ONE who I'd consider a "success" is Everson Griffen. There are a lot of players in this sample size who were supposed to be good and age is the only tick against them but they ended up being disappointments at the pro level. Tyler Brayton, Gaines Adams, Robert Ayers, Jarvis Moss, Lawrence Jackson, Erasmus James, Adrian Clayborn, all guys who went in the 1st round but were 23 or older and did either next to nothing in the NFL or were super late bloomers (Ayers) and didn't help the team that drafted them much if at all.

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8 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

he's 23 and 6'3...

Vic Beasley and Khalil Mack were both 6'3. 

Look I've got a lot of time certain power and agility metrics in determining how successful a pass rusher will be, but I'm not buying age and height alone. Surely you don't believe it's that simple.

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Just now, Smiler11 said:

Vic Beasley and Khalil Mack were both 6'3. 

Look I've got a lot of time certain power and agility metrics in determining how successful a pass rusher will be, but I'm not buying age and height alone. Surely you don't believe it's that simple.

Beasley and Mack have both had their most successful years at sam LB where the height minimum is 6'2.5", not 6'4. That proves my point bro. We need an elite starting LEO.

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7 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

Beasley and Mack have both had their most successful years at sam LB where the height minimum is 6'2.5", not 6'4. That proves my point bro. We need an elite starting LEO.

The ideal LEO in this system is a lot closer to the SAM than it is a traditional 4-3 end.

I think you're going off track with your metrics. Pass rusher rushers should be looked at holistically not 4-3 DE vs 3-4 OLB vs LEO vs BUCK. The traits of successful pass rushers are synonymous across all of the successful ones regardless of position. 

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14 minutes ago, datchrisb1 said:

Maybe, I think Jeremiah has him right about where he needs to be as far as what I've seen from the little bit that I've watched of him. I say "about" because I would still move him down below Malik McDowell, Marcus Williams, Jourdan Lewis, Cam Robinson, and Calib Brantley.  I wouldn't put him ahead of anybody ahead of him on that list. Not one guy. And I'm not even considering rather he's a weed head. 

On talent alone I have him top 10.

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8 minutes ago, datchrisb1 said:

LOL...  throwing my hands up....

do you want to go back and watch every 2016 Beasley and 2015 Mack sack and tell me how many times either one of them was double teamed on their sacks? Because I'm pretty sure 100% of Beasley's 2016 sacks came from either a stunt inside or being single blocked by the RT.

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3 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

The ideal LEO in this system is a lot closer to the SAM than it is a traditional 4-3 end.

I think you're going off track with your metrics. Pass rusher rushers should be looked at holistically not 4-3 DE vs 3-4 OLB vs LEO vs BUCK. The traits of successful pass rushers are synonymous across all of the successful ones regardless of position. 

I believed that for the longest time too, until I actually separated them by position. Completely different correlations. DEs need more length and explosion, OLBs need more lateral agility and pure speed.

And I keep telling you and datchrisb, LEO is a lot closer to a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB. You'll almost never see a LEO asked to drop back into coverage. The LEO's primary responsibilities are to rush the passer first, set the edge in the run game second, that's it. The Sam LB in our system (as well as just about every 3-4 OLB) needs to be able to rush, defend the run, and cover, AND occasionally (as you've seen with Vic this year) spy the QB. Different responsibilities = different athletic requirements.

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2 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

I believed that for the longest time too, until I actually separated them by position. Completely different correlations. DEs need more length and explosion, OLBs need more lateral agility and pure speed.

But how do you categorise them? No two schemes are the same. This year alone Beasley has played SAM, LEO, nickel DE. Von Miller plays DE in nickel, SAM in base. Elvis Dumerville, Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware and Ryan Kerrigan have all played OLB and DE during their careers. 

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Just now, Smiler11 said:

But how do you categorise them? No two schemes are the same. This year alone Beasley has played SAM, LEO, nickel DE. Von Miller plays DE in nickel, SAM in base. Elvis Dumerville, Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware and Ryan Kerrigan have all played OLB and DE during their careers. 

It's based on rookie contracts, so Mario DE Ware OLB Kerrigan OLB

Also I'm attempting to fix this issue by creating a new pair of spreadsheets, one of which will have every player by year. So like, 2010 DeMarcus Ware will be listed as a 3-4 OLB, but 2013 Ware will be a 4-3 DE, so on and so forth. It's a huge undertaking but until I manage to finish it I still have a pretty good collection.

Sam LB in a 4-3 Under scheme = 3-4 OLB. LEO in that scheme = 4-3 DE. Other than that it's pretty cut and dry what the OLBs and DEs are.

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1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

It's based on rookie contracts, so Mario DE Ware OLB Kerrigan OLB

Also I'm attempting to fix this issue by creating a new pair of spreadsheets, one of which will have every player by year. So like, 2010 DeMarcus Ware will be listed as a 3-4 OLB, but 2013 Ware will be a 4-3 DE, so on and so forth. It's a huge undertaking but until I manage to finish it I still have a pretty good collection.

Sam LB in a 4-3 Under scheme = 3-4 OLB. LEO in that scheme = 4-3 DE. Other than that it's pretty cut and dry what the OLBs and DEs are.

That still doesn't account for players like Beasley, Mack and Miller who all play DE in nickel, where they also likely (I dont have the numbers) get most of their sacks.

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