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Keys to Victory


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After re-watching the Week 6 game against Seattle, I've come away with a few keys to victory for tomorrow's game

  • Establish the run early and often: The running attack was virtually non-existent the entire game. Seattle's defenders were often times in our backfield at the snap of the ball and disrupting our entire running game. Freeman had 12 carries for a total of 40 yds and 3.3 ypc. His longest run was 18 yds and he had 0 TD's. As a receiver he had 3 receptions for 10 yds and 0 TD's. Coleman didn't fare much better. He ran for a mere 10 yds on 5 carries (2.0 ypc) with his longest run being 4 yds. As far as receiving is concerned, he only had 1 reception for 7 yds and didn't reach the endzone either. Our ability to run the ball will be critical in this matchup. An effective run game will cause Seattle's defense to respect the run which will open up more plays in the play-action passing game. An effective running game will also help keep Matt Ryan upright. He was sacked 4 times and hit about 356 more. Judging from Week 6 and comments to media, Seattle will be trying to hit Ryan every chance they can. If we're able to run effectively, Seattle will have to focus more on stopping the run and less on rushing up field to kill our QB. It'll also mean that Ryan will drop back less and limit the number of times Seattle is able to hit him basically neutralizing their pass rush. A good rushing attack will be key to maintaining the dynamic, balanced attack that makes our offense so difficult to defend.

 

  • Contain Russell Wilson: Russell Wilson is one of the best in the league when it comes to extending plays with his legs and throwing on the move. For this reason, it's important that we not only pressure him while he's in the pocket but limit his scrambling ability. When defenders rush up field to sack the QB, they tend to leave open running lanes for more mobile QB's like Wilson with his 4.5 speed to take advantage of. I expect us to use a variety of stunts and QB spy's to contain him. We did this often against San Francisco (Beasley's sack) and I expect a similar strategy against Seattle. Wilson was suffering from multiple injuries in his knees and ankles in the first matchup and still managed to make some key plays when running. He'll be fully healthy this time so it's important for us to limit his running ability as much as possible

 

  • 3rd Down Conversion: We were awful on third down in the first matchup, 2/10 to be exact (0/6 in the first half). Our lack of efficiency on first and second downs contributed to the poor third down conversion rate. Either way, we'll need to do a much better job converting on third downs this time around 

 

  • Win the Turnover Ratio: We've been great all season in this area with a plus 11 advantage. However, the last time we played Seattle we were minus 2 in this category with one of them being in our own territory. Teams that win the turnover battle, especially by such a wide margin, typically win the game and I expect the trend to continue in this game. Quinn emphasizes the turnover margin every week and the team has embraced this mindset all season so they'll need to gain an advantage in TO's again this week to win

 

What are your keys to victory??

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4 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Easy our o-line has watched the first half film from the game earlier this season and neutralises there front 4.To me we win in a canter.

Thats the key if Ryan has time it's good night nurse.

Exactly, if we can just keep Matt upright then their pass rush becomes a non-factor and he'll destroy their defense. It's easier said then done though

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If the Falcons are on the plus-side of the turnover margin, ATL wins. I don't think Seattle's D on the road will be able to consistently keep the Falcons out of scoring range. Their recipe will be 

1) hold onto the ball with lengthy scoring drives;

2) get pressure on Ryan and force turnovers. 

If the Falcons don't turn it over, Seattle doesn't have enough firepower to keep up. 

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1 hour ago, #1ATLFALCONSFAN said:

After re-watching the Week 6 game against Seattle, I've come away with a few keys to victory for tomorrow's game

  • Establish the run early and often: The running attack was virtually non-existent the entire game. Seattle's defenders were often times in our backfield at the snap of the ball and disrupting our entire running game. Freeman had 12 carries for a total of 40 yds and 3.3 ypc. His longest run was 18 yds and he had 0 TD's. As a receiver he had 3 receptions for 10 yds and 0 TD's. Coleman didn't fare much better. He ran for a mere 10 yds on 5 carries (2.0 ypc) with his longest run being 4 yds. As far as receiving is concerned, he only had 1 reception for 7 yds and didn't reach the endzone either. Our ability to run the ball will be critical in this matchup. An effective run game will cause Seattle's defense to respect the run which will open up more plays in the play-action passing game. An effective running game will also help keep Matt Ryan upright. He was sacked 4 times and hit about 356 more. Judging from Week 6 and comments to media, Seattle will be trying to hit Ryan every chance they can. If we're able to run effectively, Seattle will have to focus more on stopping the run and less on rushing up field to kill our QB. It'll also mean that Ryan will drop back less and limit the number of times Seattle is able to hit him basically neutralizing their pass rush. A good rushing attack will be key to maintaining the dynamic, balanced attack that makes our offense so difficult to defend.

 

 

Playing in Seattle they used their home field to their advantage. I don't expect that to be a issue at home with our lineman able to hear the snap count. 

Having a player like Earl Thomas can allow them to play aggressively in coverage, but without him I don't see them having success in the pass game. Their linebackers won't have their safety blanket to help them out.

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Just now, Falconsfan567 said:

But seriously, the big key is not letting Matt take the same kind of beating he did the first time around. We must keep him upright.

And we need to get some of those calls they weren't making when Matt was getting beat up.

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4 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Score more points than them.

That works too lol

3 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

I'd go play action and try to beat em deep on the first two or three drives. Then run the ball. Kinda like we did in the 2012 NFCCG. We need to make them play the pass and test their legion. Running at em could be futile. They have a stingy run defense. Nasty actually.

We actually did that A LOT in the second half of the first matchup. We nearly abandoned the run and started shredding the defense with PA crossing/out routes to Julio and Sanu

3 hours ago, BIRDLAND 2.0 said:

Special Teams: PR coverage and watch for trick plays; Ditto on Wilson via Beasley. When Beasley spies have Reed or Clayborn opposite Freeney in pass rush; Jam all Seattle Wides/TE within 5 yard limit; Contain Lawson by walking up Neal in box. Team don't panic. This isn't 2012 or earlier!

Seahawks will definitely try a few trick plays so we'll have to play discipline by not going for reverses, flea flickers, and misdirections 

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Beasley has like 4 or 5 sacks this year on spy's or stunts. He won us the game vs GB if you watch how he spied AR toward the end and specifically on the last play. Beasley has great timing and awareness, and his speed catches QBs off guard when he closes the gap in a second. AR didnt have his first read, so he would take off every time. So we adjusted and rushed from one side, he would obviously scramble to the other side where Vic would be anticipating that and close in on him. Hopefully Wilsons speed isn't too much to match and our DBs can stop the improv plays while Vic and co chase him down. 

I think the game comes down to this more than anything. Close 2nd is if we can stop Rawls

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6 hours ago, BIRDLAND 2.0 said:

Special Teams: PR coverage and watch for trick plays; Ditto on Wilson via Beasley. When Beasley spies have Reed or Clayborn opposite Freeney in pass rush; Jam all Seattle Wides/TE within 5 yard limit; Contain Lawson by walking up Neal in box. Team don't panic. This isn't 2012 or earlier!

 
 

whos Lawson? Graham? lol Rawls? Wilson?

Edited by mtldirtybird
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51 minutes ago, mtldirtybird said:

Beasley has like 4 or 5 sacks this year on spy's or stunts. He won us the game vs GB if you watch how he spied AR toward the end and specifically on the last play. Beasley has great timing and awareness, and his speed catches QBs off guard when he closes the gap in a second. AR didnt have his first read, so he would take off every time. So we adjusted and rushed from one side, he would obviously scramble to the other side where Vic would be anticipating that and close in on him. Hopefully Wilsons speed isn't too much to match and our DBs can stop the improv plays while Vic and co chase him down. 

I think the game comes down to this more than anything. Close 2nd is if we can stop Rawls

This is what came to mind for me. With Wilson healthy I can see him scrambling more and thinking about running if he has a lot of open green in front of him. I expect Vic to spy at times in this game to reduce the risk of that. 

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10 hours ago, #1ATLFALCONSFAN said:

After re-watching the Week 6 game against Seattle, I've come away with a few keys to victory for tomorrow's game

  • Establish the run early and often: The running attack was virtually non-existent the entire game. Seattle's defenders were often times in our backfield at the snap of the ball and disrupting our entire running game. Freeman had 12 carries for a total of 40 yds and 3.3 ypc. His longest run was 18 yds and he had 0 TD's. As a receiver he had 3 receptions for 10 yds and 0 TD's. Coleman didn't fare much better. He ran for a mere 10 yds on 5 carries (2.0 ypc) with his longest run being 4 yds. As far as receiving is concerned, he only had 1 reception for 7 yds and didn't reach the endzone either. Our ability to run the ball will be critical in this matchup. An effective run game will cause Seattle's defense to respect the run which will open up more plays in the play-action passing game. An effective running game will also help keep Matt Ryan upright. He was sacked 4 times and hit about 356 more. Judging from Week 6 and comments to media, Seattle will be trying to hit Ryan every chance they can. If we're able to run effectively, Seattle will have to focus more on stopping the run and less on rushing up field to kill our QB. It'll also mean that Ryan will drop back less and limit the number of times Seattle is able to hit him basically neutralizing their pass rush. A good rushing attack will be key to maintaining the dynamic, balanced attack that makes our offense so difficult to defend.

 

  • Contain Russell Wilson: Russell Wilson is one of the best in the league when it comes to extending plays with his legs and throwing on the move. For this reason, it's important that we not only pressure him while he's in the pocket but limit his scrambling ability. When defenders rush up field to sack the QB, they tend to leave open running lanes for more mobile QB's like Wilson with his 4.5 speed to take advantage of. I expect us to use a variety of stunts and QB spy's to contain him. We did this often against San Francisco (Beasley's sack) and I expect a similar strategy against Seattle. Wilson was suffering from multiple injuries in his knees and ankles in the first matchup and still managed to make some key plays when running. He'll be fully healthy this time so it's important for us to limit his running ability as much as possible

 

  • 3rd Down Conversion: We were awful on third down in the first matchup, 2/10 to be exact (0/6 in the first half). Our lack of efficiency on first and second downs contributed to the poor third down conversion rate. Either way, we'll need to do a much better job converting on third downs this time around 

 

  • Win the Turnover Ratio: We've been great all season in this area with a plus 11 advantage. However, the last time we played Seattle we were minus 2 in this category with one of them being in our own territory. Teams that win the turnover battle, especially by such a wide margin, typically win the game and I expect the trend to continue in this game. Quinn emphasizes the turnover margin every week and the team has embraced this mindset all season so they'll need to gain an advantage in TO's again this week to win

 

What are your keys to victory??

Great points.. and I know it sounds simple but I also think our linemen need to get their hands up even if the can't hit Wilson. Being a shorter QB it makes it harder for him to targets his receivers when we're collapsing on him and obstructing his line of sight. We're also more likely to get hands on the ball and bat it down or give our rushers more time to get to Wilson if he has to reset because he does have a clear path to his guy.

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On defense:

Sustain coverage for five seconds:  Wilson can extend plays as well as Rodgers.....and he is accurate on the run.  Our DB's have to maintain coverage in man-to-man and they have to communicate exceptionally well in zone coverage.

On Offense:

Complete passes outside the hash marks:  If we can widen Seattle's LB's, we should be able to run the ball well enough to sustain long time-consuming drives.  I'd like to see us establish long drives consistently to tire their excellent defense down a bit.  

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11 hours ago, #1ATLFALCONSFAN said:

What are your keys to victory??

Great post. This is solid. However, I would incorporate your thoughts with a bit of "Let it rip" mentality. 

1) We need to establish the run, within the context of our offense. We don't need to force the run if its not happening. Shanahan is Shanahan because he takes a very Belichickian approach to football. You identify your opponents weakness and exploit it to your advantage. Running into the teeth of the Seattle defense, exclusively to "establish the run" is playing into the strength of your opponent. We didn't run well in the first game because we did get first down. We punted mostly. Balance comes in this offense as a result of attacking a weakness and making the opponent adjust. When they adjust, you exploit the adjustment. 

Running more shouldn't be a goal. It should be the result of executing a comprehensive game play. In our offense, rushing yardage is the output of good football, not the input that causes good football. 

2) I would change this to "attack Russell Wilson." Your spy concept is great. Only Beasley is a very aggressive spy. Anytime he can force Russell into a one way retreat, he has the green light to get on his horse and light him up. Don't shadow in the traditional sense. Shadow to attack. If you watch Beasley's tape in the Packers and Panthers games, he is getting better and better than this. He plays shadow like a sheep dog herds. He positions himself so as to limit their options, then he gets aggressive. He trusts his physical talent to match theirs in confined areas once he cuts off a majority of the field. 

3) Third down conversions.  Attacking on first down and avoiding 3rd and long is the key here. Yes we need to convert, but you do that by keeping them manageable. If this defense gets us in 3rd and 6+ we will struggle with conversion percentage. They are not the Saints, Raiders, or Bucs. You don't get to just drop back and complete a routine 7 yard catch for a first down vs. this defense. They know where the chains are and the protect them better than any other unit in the NFL. Convert 3rd downs when you see them, but prevention is a better strategy.  Check out the advances splits in this post. Cool number around our first down success. Ryan's Fun Splits

4) I agree with you that we need to win the turnover ratio, but that is the preoccupation of our defense. They have to have Ryan's back. They need to look our QB in the eye and say: "Let it rip brother, we got your back." The worry about offensive turnovers, interception in particular, worries me more than anything else. The only path the Seahawks have to victory is Atlanta taking the air out of the football. We put the football in the air and we win because of that, not in spite of that. Ryan can't go into this game with his focus on protecting the football. He has to, in the words of Quinn, "Let it rip." If protection of the football is his primary thought, we are done.

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