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Can the Falcons offense defy the odds of one and done to win SB?


falcons007
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Can the falcons offense continue the historic season and make a deep run in the play offs with an average defense? Its possible but the odds don't look good. It would almost take a perfect post season from the offense if the defense can't step up. I am cautiously optimistic and hoping a special effort from offense to win a SB against odds. 

The records of the QB in the playoffs when the team gave up more than 21 points. loss.png

 

In last 10 years, only the 2011 Ravens and 2014 patriots won the SB after overcoming multiple games of PA(Points Against)> 21 points. Ryan never had a game where the defense gave up 21 points or less in play offs. Can this defense carry the team if the offense is stopped in one of the games? Its hard to win a SB expecting perfect play by a QB. 

The records of QB when the team gave up 21 points or less in play offs. The records flip when the defense can hold the fort and the QB win rate is around 100% for most. 

wins.png

I added Cam Newton because of the argument that he has more play off wins than Ryan. 

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The defense is capable of stopping opposing offenses most of the time, it's just when we go to prevent these rookies don't know how to run it perfectly yet so we get scored on and large amounts of yards are picked up against us. I think they will come together during the playoffs along with the offense and wreck havoc. 

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I've given this a lot of thought recently. It's unrealistic to expect any offense to put up 30+pts in every game in the postseason. It's unlikely that the Falcons will win the SB unless they get some considerable help from their defense. I can't think of any team that has won it all with just offense. 

So I wanna know, can Atl win a game where they only score 20-24pts? We'll know for sure in about a month

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21 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Can the falcons offense continue the historic season and make a deep run in the play offs with an average defense? Its possible but the odds don't look good. It would almost take a perfect post season from the offense if the defense can't step up. I am cautiously optimistic and hoping a special effort from offense to win a SB against odds. 

The records of the QB in the playoffs when the team gave up more than 21 points. loss.png

 

In last 10 years, only the 2011 Ravens and 2014 patriots won the SB after overcoming multiple games of PA(Points Against)> 21 points. Ryan never had a game where the defense gave up 21 points or less in play offs. Can this defense carry the team if the offense is stopped in one of the games? Its hard to win a SB expecting perfect play by a QB. 

The records of QB when the team gave up 21 points or less in play offs. The records flip when the defense can hold the fort and the QB win rate is around 100% for most. 

wins.png

I added Cam Newton because of the argument that he has more play off wins than Ryan. 

To make this accurate you have to include the W-L for when the offense scores 21 or less. This only shows half the picture. Of course the QBs will have more wins when the defense gives up less points.

I do think dominant defenses can take down top offenses, but I don't see a dominant defense this year that the Falcons will have to face. NE Def is awesome, but they aren't DEN from last year or SEA from a couple years back.

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5 minutes ago, camfalcon said:

I've given this a lot of thought recently. It's unrealistic to expect any offense to put up 30+pts in every game in the postseason. It's unlikely that the Falcons will win the SB unless they get some considerable help from their defense. I can't think of any team that has won it all with just offense. 

So I wanna know, can Atl win a game where they only score 20-24pts? We'll know for sure in about a month

http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400874607

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2 minutes ago, NeonDeion said:

To make this accurate you have to include the W-L for when the offense scores 21 or less. This only shows half the picture. Of course the QBs will have more wins when the defense gives up less points.

I do think dominant defenses can take down top offenses, but I don't see a dominant defense this year that the Falcons will have to face. NE Def is awesome, but they aren't DEN from last year or SEA from a couple years back.

Of course its not complete picture but its hard to win in Playoffs when the games get in to shootouts or teams scoring more than 21 points. Even the most prolific offenses couldn't pull out wins when they were stopped in the playoffs. That pretty much was story of Peyton Manning most of the career with a good offense but defense couldn't hold the other end. 

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3 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Our defense is going to surprise a lot of people this offseason. I just wish so many of them weren't our own fans. 

I can see the potential and they have been coming along well in last 5-6 games. But I am yet to see a game where they can carry the team if offense is not firing all cylinders. 

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1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

I can see the potential and they have been coming along well in last 5-6 games. But I am yet to see a game where they can carry the team if offense is not firing all cylinders. 

Why not? The offense can't get out to big leads if the Defense isn't playing well. We held the best offense in the league (outside our own) to 13 points in 3 quarters. That's pretty good I'd say.

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Just now, Lornoth said:

Why not? The offense can't get out to big leads if the Defense isn't playing well. We held the best offense in the league (outside our own) to 13 points in 3 quarters. That's pretty good I'd say.

Well three quarters is good but the game is 4 quarters, sure the falcons went in to prevent but that could cost the game in playoffs.

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1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

Thats pretty much the only win for Falcons when they scored less than 30. Its hard to score 30 in every play off game, not even 2007 patriots, 2013 Broncos could do it. 

Falcons scored the following in their 5 losses: 24, 24, 30, 15, 28. Gave up 31, 26, 33, 24, and 29 in those losses.

Agreed that a Super Bowl run will likely require a 27-24 or even 23-17 tyoe win somewhere along the way.

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11 minutes ago, camfalcon said:

I've given this a lot of thought recently. It's unrealistic to expect any offense to put up 30+pts in every game in the postseason. It's unlikely that the Falcons will win the SB unless they get some considerable help from their defense. I can't think of any team that has won it all with just offense. 

So I wanna know, can Atl win a game where they only score 20-24pts? We'll know for sure in about a month

Only 2009 Saints scored 30 or more points every game in the playoffs to win the SB. Its possible but not many teams in the recent history have scored 30 points in every play off game in a season. 

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8 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Our defense is going to surprise a lot of people this offseason. I just wish so many of them weren't our own fans. 

Agree just had this conversation with someone earlier today whos a packers fan & he was saying the same thing that our defense is going to shock the world.....it did make plays on Rodgers & Brees when it mattered the most.

If our offense is in sync and clicking in all cylinders ....defense is going to have boauancy  effect.

My main concern is special teams play.....we need Weems, Bosher & Bryant to bring their A game.

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1 minute ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

Forgot about the Den game. Let me rephrase- against a playoff caliber offense. 

I'm proud of our young D. But I'm cautious about predicting a SB win until we put together a complete game vs a quality O.

That's what's so fun about the playoffs though, you never know who's gonna step up. Wouldn't shock me if our Def comes together at the right time.

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6 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Only 2009 Saints scored 30 or more points every game in the playoffs to win the SB. Its possible but not many teams in the recent history have scored 30 points in every play off game in a season. 

Totally agree. But even that defense created TO's to help score those points. I think creating TO's is the most realistic way that our D can contribute to making a run at the trophy. I don't know if they're going to lock many teams down, but they can definitely make plays and get the ball back to our O.

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12 minutes ago, camfalcon said:

Forgot about the Den game. Let me rephrase- against a playoff caliber offense. 

I'm proud of our young D. But I'm cautious about predicting a SB win until we put together a complete game vs a quality O.

That's what's so fun about the playoffs though, you never know who's gonna step up. Wouldn't shock me if our Def comes together at the right time.

Let's say we are up 25-0 on a team going in the 4th quarter of the playoffs and then the team scores 19 pts in the 4th quarter.  We win 25 -19.  Would you consider that a complete game? 

 

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3 minutes ago, Marco102 said:

Let's say we are up 25-0 on a team going in the 4th quarter of the playoffs and then the team scores 19 pts in the 4th quarter.  We win 25 -19.  Would you consider that a complete game? 

 

 

Just win in play offs. its a complete game if its 25-24. Falcons have been there before, not often but blew up big leads few times.

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22 minutes ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

Falcons scored the following in their 5 losses: 24, 24, 30, 15, 28. Gave up 31, 26, 33, 24, and 29 in those losses.

Agreed that a Super Bowl run will likely require a 27-24 or even 23-17 tyoe win somewhere along the way.

Our most likely opponents (IMO) are Green Bay, Seattle and Dallas. Seattle is the only defense that will provide much resistance... if by some stroke we wind up hosting the Giants, our defense is perfectly capable of slowing down Eli and that putrid o line and run game enough to win a low scoring game. That said, I don't think they bear GB this weekend and it will be **** near impossible for them to beat the cowboys a third time in the same season at Jerrys world

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