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Bill Barnwell of ESPN on the playoffs and Falcons


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The link will take you to a main page where you click on a team in the playoffs and there is information about them. We are second in odds to win the SB. Patriots are first at 43%.

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FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 20.7%

Seed: No. 2, NFC | Record: 11-5 | Up next: Seahawks/Packers/Giants

The Falcons don't have a good defense -- they rank 27th in Football Outsiders' DVOA -- but that hasn't slowed them down, because nobody has been able to stop their offense. Atlanta scored 540 points in 2016, the eighth-highest single-season total in league history. Even after you account for the scoring levels of 2016 and the 16-game schedule (which went into effect in 1978), Kyle Shanahan's 2016 offense finished 2.66 standard deviations better than the average NFL offense. That's also good for eighth best since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.

The Falcons are good at just about everything an offense might be asked to do with the ball, but they particularly excel on first down. They're averaging 7.58 yards per play on first down, which is absurd, given that the next-best team, the Bears, was nearly a full yard behind at 6.70 yards per play. ESPN Stats & Information has down-by-down data going back to 1996, and the Falcons pace the field there, too, beating out the 2006 Eagles by more than a full half-yard. Given that teams are averaging more yards per play over the past 10 years than they have in any previous stretch in league history, it's extremely likely the 2016 Falcons were the best first-down offense in the history of the NFL.

sb_falcons2.png

Unlike in previous years, Matt Ryan has been just as good throwing the ball to his secondary receiver as he has been throwing it to superstar wideout Julio Jones. From 2013 to 2015, Ryan produced a 101.3 passer rating on throws to Jones, but only a 92.0 rating on throws to his other receivers. This year, he has flipped things around. Ryan is still putting up numbers with Jones (105.4 rating on 127 passes), but he has been otherworldly throwing to his other receivers. On 389 passes to his non-Jones receivers, Ryan has produced a 126.3 passer rating.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18400150/bill-barnwell-2016-nfl-playoffs-preview

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2 minutes ago, droopy1592 said:

All of it is absurd. 9.3 yards per attempt? 7.58 per first down? And we didn't even have decent TOP. If our defense even started the season the way they are finishing we would have scored  50 more points or more. 

And might not have lost a game. 

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Was listening to one guy talk about average points per drive, it was like 3.2 for our offense... second place this year was the Patriots at 2.7ish (will look this stuff up later).  Anyways... our offense was historically one of the best ever, and our defense was terrible, which gave our offense less chances...

TL/DR We scored more than a field goal everytime our center touched the ball

PS Red Wine is good

Edited by AlabamaFalconFan
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Don't know where he gets his info that ATL is ranked 27th!

35 minutes ago, fuego said:

they rank 27th in Football Outsiders' DVOA

What I see is this:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings

 

ATL has a Total DVOA  of 19.6% which is ranked #3! And a weighted DVOA of 19.8%, which is ranked #4!

 

Like everybody else that doesn't follow ATL, they assume that we are the same as last year, when we ranked 26th in DVOA. Big difference now!

 

JD

Note: I see now that the DEF DVOA is 27. My bad! 

 

Total DVOA last year was 26th. This year 3rd!

 

Edited by bigatlfan2
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30 minutes ago, droopy1592 said:

All of it is absurd. 9.3 yards per attempt? 7.58 per first down? And we didn't even have decent TOP. If our defense even started the season the way they are finishing we would have scored  50 more points or more. 

You can't have TOP if you average 9.3 per attempt. You score too fast. 

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consider this,the last two popular,talented show topping QB's in Vick and Matt pre 2016 had 1 or 2 main targets,Vick had Finneran and Matt had Gonzales/JJ.this incarnation of Matt has evolved and taken his game to a whole other level.We are watching that rare instance of an athlete taking his game and maybe THE game to a new level of excellence ne Jordan,Tiger,La Bron.If he sustains this level of performance Matt will be elevated to the conversation of Montana,Young,Elway,Peyton,Bradshaw,Aiken et al.This will be very interesting to see.

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48 minutes ago, droopy1592 said:

All of it is absurd. 9.3 yards per attempt? 7.58 per first down? And we didn't even have decent TOP. If our defense even started the season the way they are finishing we would have scored  50 more points or more. 

McDaniel will only improve on Shannahan because of entire offense knowing system.

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Quote

 From 2013 to 2015, Ryan produced a 101.3 passer rating on throws to Jones, but only a 92.0 rating on throws to his other receivers. This year, he has flipped things around. Ryan is still putting up numbers with Jones (105.4 rating on 127 passes), but he has been otherworldly throwing to his other receivers. On 389 passes to his non-Jones receivers, Ryan has produced a 126.3 passer rating.

So he does even better when he's not throwing to Julio. This is probably the biggest difference in this Matt Ryan from previous years. Like ack when he would lock in on Tony G because he didn't have much success throwing to anyone else, so that'd led to some forced passes. He's just slinging it all around the field now. This playoffs will be different. I'll take a Vick vs the Rams blowout please.

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4 hours ago, droopy1592 said:

If the D gets the other O off of the field yes you can. 

Look at the first half of the Saints game. Other than 2 possessions, the defense did get them off the field. We just didn't run enough plays on offense to control the clock. It was the same with Stl and Arz.

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PS - we were tied for 7th place in NFL History

1 - Denver Broncos 2013 606 points 37.9 per game

2 - New England Patriots 2007 589 points 36.8 per game

3 - Green Bay Packers 2011 560 pints 35.0 per game

4 - New England Patriots 2012 557 points 34.8 per game

5 - Minnesota Vikings - 1998 556 points 34.8 per game

6 - New Orleans Saints - 2011 547 points 34.2 per game

7 - Atlanta Falcons - 2016 540 points 33.8 per game

7 - St Louis Rams - 2000 540 points 33.8 per game

 

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12 hours ago, jimifalcon said:

consider this,the last two popular,talented show topping QB's in Vick and Matt pre 2016 had 1 or 2 main targets,Vick had Finneran and Matt had Gonzales/JJ.this incarnation of Matt has evolved and taken his game to a whole other level.We are watching that rare instance of an athlete taking his game and maybe THE game to a new level of excellence ne Jordan,Tiger,La Bron.If he sustains this level of performance Matt will be elevated to the conversation of Montana,Young,Elway,Peyton,Bradshaw,Aiken et al.This will be very interesting to see.

I think Vick targeted Crump more than anybody and we were never a high scoring team during those years:

2006 292  18.3 ppg
2005 351  21.9 ppg
2004 340  21.3 ppg
2003 299  18.7 ppg

2002 402  25 points a game

2001 291   18.2 ppg
2000 252   15.8 ppg

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12 hours ago, wordtobigbird said:

So he does even better when he's not throwing to Julio. This is probably the biggest difference in this Matt Ryan from previous years. Like ack when he would lock in on Tony G because he didn't have much success throwing to anyone else, so that'd led to some forced passes. He's just slinging it all around the field now. This playoffs will be different. I'll take a Vick vs the Rams blowout please.

 

Because virtually every throw to Julio is double or triple coverage, it only makes sense to throw to Sanu one-on-one or Gabriel matched-up with a linebacker... Or Tevin or Hooper standing all by themselves with nobody within 20-yards, as has been the case a few times.  That was the issue last year.  Partially because of the o-line and partially because of his (and everyone else's) maturity in the system, he wasn't getting past his first read in Julio and was forcing it no matter what. 

 

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14 hours ago, droopy1592 said:

All of it is absurd. 9.3 yards per attempt? 7.58 per first down? And we didn't even have decent TOP. If our defense even started the season the way they are finishing we would have scored  50 more points or more. 

That's madness. If you're facing an opposing offense getting nearly eight yards a clip and that happens to you, you'd better...

A. Pray in advance for turnovers (see KC), a few drops (see Philly), have an officiating crew on payroll (see Seattle), and/or hope that their kicker miss a FG or two (see Philly, SD) or

B. Have a team with enough firepower to stick around while still praying for A to eventually happen.

Otherwise, well, you become the next San Francisco, the next LA Rams, the next Tampa Bay who gets 40+ hung on them while Ryan's chugging Powerade on the sidelines during garbage time in the 4th.

 

 

Edited by ratesforless
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15 hours ago, droopy1592 said:

All of it is absurd. 9.3 yards per attempt? 7.58 per first down? And we didn't even have decent TOP. If our defense even started the season the way they are finishing we would have scored  50 more points or more. 

Nah, we would have just started sitting starters after halftime... lol

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23 hours ago, falcndave said:

Look at the first half of the Saints game. Other than 2 possessions, the defense did get them off the field. We just didn't run enough plays on offense to control the clock. It was the same with Stl and Arz.

And instead of 35 points it may have been 28. The defense helped us increase TOP and gave us extra possessions. Any increase in TOP and posessissions with a quick strike offense increases points. My original point stands. 

Edited by droopy1592
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Nothing against anyone for saying this, but I hate hearing the defense is terrible thing. If most people watched the games I defense would go prevent sometimes entire 2nd half because our offense literally torched the stadium.

I truly can't wait until playoffs start I really really hope this will be one for the ages, and even without the SB going into next season we've almost got to be favorites coming out of the NFC depending on what we do in FA/Draft.

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